• Title/Summary/Keyword: multinomial logistic model

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

A Study on Activity Type Based on Multi-dimensional Characteristics (개인의 복합적인 특성에 따른 활동유형 분석)

  • Na, Sung Yong;Lee, Seungjae;Kim, Joo Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.544-553
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    • 2014
  • Activity-based models analyze individuals' various daily activities that are identified as a decision-making unit for transportation planning. In other words, it is the model that determines the types of activities according to the social, economic and situational characteristics of the groups with the same activity patterns and predicts individuals' activity time, distance, spatial movement and transportation mode. The activity-based model is a method of estimating more efficient and realistic demand in transportation forecasting because traffic is regarded as a complex decision-making process that an individual and other people participate in. In this paper, we grasp the factors affecting choice behavior of activity pattern and analyze choice behavior of activity pattern based on multi-dimensional characteristic of each person. First, we classify activity types of reviewing the trip chain and activity purpose. Next, we identified preferable activity types using complicated characteristics of main agent of activity. We concluded that choice behavior of activity pattern is dependent on complex characteristics of each agent, and further multi-dimensional characteristics of each person are affected over the whole decision process of activity schedule.

Influential Factors on the Change in Life Satisfaction of Elderly Households -Longitudinal Analysis using a Latent Growth Model (노인가구 노인의 삶의 만족도 변화에 미치는 영향 요인 -잠재성장모형을 이용한 종단연구)

  • Kim, Jin-hun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.339-349
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the influential factors on the change in life satisfaction of elderly households. In this study, single and couple elderly households were defined as elderly households and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th data of the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Ageing (KLoSA) provided by the Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS) were used. And 677 respondents aged 65 and over who had replied to all 3 sessions were included in the final subjects. multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the influential factors on life satisfaction by the type of elderly households according to consumption pattern and the result showed that there were common influential factors such as house owning status and subjective health status and the factors that influence specific types such as expectancy of standard of living. In addition, in the longitudinal analysis of life satisfaction of elderly households, individual satisfaction level was confirmed to reduce with time and the factors that influence the longitudinal change in the level of life satisfaction of elderly households was analyzed through the conditional model of a latent growth model. The analysis results showed that household type, house owning status, and subjective health status influenced the initial value of life satisfaction of elderly households while household type and expectancy of living standard influenced the change rate of life satisfaction of elderly households. Based on the results of this study, the followings are suggested. There is a need to improve the life satisfaction of old age by increasing the opportunity for self-realization of elderly households and also policy approach should be made selectively taking various types into consideration.

A Study on the Prediction of Referral Intension based on Customer Satisfaction in Construction Management (CM에서 고객만족도에 기반한 추천의향 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Min;Lee, Ghang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.100-110
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    • 2010
  • The main roots of CM service contracts include existing customer repurchases and those made by new customers by existing ones. The study on customers and loyalty can be factors to strengthen CM's competitiveness. However, there have been little attempt to study customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. Construction Management (CM), the advanced construction management method, was introduced 15 years ago in the mid 1990's in the domestic market. The aim of this research is to build a model that can predict customer loyalty based on how much customers are satisfied with CM service. To measure customer satisfaction and loyalty, this research surveyed 135 decision-makers who have experienced CM services. Customer satisfaction was tested and analyzed according to different phases: planning, designing, procurement, construction, and post construction. Referral intention was tested based on NPS theory. Customer types were divided into detractors, passively satisfied and promoters according to the tested measurement and multinomial logistic regression between the satisfaction by construction phases and customer types. This research resulted to a model that can predict customer types: detractors, passively satisfied and promoters, which were determined according to satisfaction level. The initial planning phase also revealed which factor is most influential for a customer to become promoter. These results can be used to acquire customer loyalty by managing the satisfaction of customers through a project under an Internet-based environment. Such can provide the needed information in quickly exploring positive and negative word-of-mouth feedbacks.

Longitudinal Patterns of Stages of Changes in Smoking Behaviors among Korean Adult Smokers: Applying the Transtheoretical Model of Change (범이론적 모델에 기반을 둔 흡연자의 금연행동 변화단계에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Park, Hyunyong;Jun, Jina;Sohn, Sunju
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.5-28
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    • 2018
  • Smoking is one of the important public health concerns because it is preventable causes regarding individuals' negative health consequences and increased social and economic cost. However, few studies have examined longitudinal patterns of stages of changes(SOC) in smoking behaviors among the general population. The purpose of the study is to explore the latent patterns of SOC over time among Korean adult smokers using the 2008-2016 Korea Welfare Panel Study. A repeated measure latent class analysis is employed in the present study. The finding of the present study are as follows: First, four latent groups were identified: (1) action/maintenance stage(33.6%), (2) contemplation/preparation to action/maintenance stage(14.8%), (3) continuously contemplation/preparation stage(29.6%), and (4) continuously pre-contemplation stage(22.1%). Second, the results of a multinomial logistic regression found that socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were associated with the identified longitudinal patterns of smoking behaviors. Compared to a continuously pre-contemplation stage, higher levels of depressive symptoms and drinking behavior were associated with increased odds of being in action/maintenance stage. The findings of the present study highlight that a tailored intervention is needed for individuals with continuously pre-contemplation stage and contemplation stage.

10-year trajectories of cognitive functions among older adults: Focus on gender difference and spousal loss (70대 고령자의 10년간의 인지기능수준 변화의 유형화: 성별 및 배우자 상실경험을 중심으로)

  • Min, Joohong;Kim, Joohyun
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.147-161
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this research is to investigates 10-year trajectories of cognitive functions among older adults in their 70s to understand changes in cognitive functions as a continuum until very late life. This study also examines differences in trajectories of cognitive functions by gender and by changes in marital status, especially widowhood. Among participants of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing(KLoSA), the sample of this study includes 800 older adults in their 70s during the first study wave (2006) and those who reported their cognitive functions for six consecutive study waves (2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016). The analyses were conducted in two steps. First, we conducted Latent Class Growth Analyses(LCGA) to investigated heterogeneous trajectories of cognitive functions in 10 years. Then, we performed multinomial logistic regression. Three heterogeneous trajectories of cognitive functions were identified. One group of 48.7% of older adults showed high cognitive function at baseline and maintained it over 10 years. Second group of 14.7% of older adults reported low cognitive function scores at baseline and showed continuous decline over time. Third group of 36.6% were showed mid-level cognitive functions and maintained their functions over time. We also found significant gender differences but not significant differences in marital status when we consider both in our model; however, the we found significant differences in changes in marital status when we did not consider gender in the model. The results suggest that the importance of considering dynamics of gender and changes in marital status to understand changes in cognitive functions in later life.

Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Associated Risk Factors in Jazan, Saudi Arabia: A Hospital Based Case Control Study

  • Quadri, Mir Faeq Ali;Alharbi, Fahd;Bajonaid, Amal Mansoor S;Moafa, Ibtisam Hussain Y;Sharwani, Abubakker Al;Alamir, Abdulwahab Hussain A
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.4335-4338
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    • 2015
  • Background: Oral cancer is the third most common malignancy in Saudi Arabia, the highest incidence of which is reported from Jazan province. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of various locally used substances, especially shamma, with oral cancer in the Jazan region of Saudi Arabia. Materials and Methods: A hospital-based case-control study was designed and patient records were scanned for histologically confirmed oral cancer cases. Forty eight patients who were recently diagnosed with oral cancer were selected as cases. Two healthy controls were selected for each observed case and they were matched with age (+/- 5 years) gender and location. Use of different forms of tobacco such as cigarettes, pipe-smoking and shamma (smokeless-tobacco) was assessed. Khat, a commonly used chewing substance in the community was also included. Descriptive analysis was first performed followed by multiple logistic regression (with and without interaction) to derive odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence interval (CIs). Results: Mean age of the study sample (56% males and 44% females) was 65.3 years. Multinomial regression analysis revealed that shamma use increased the odds of developing oral cancer by 29 times (OR=29.3; 10.3-83.1). Cigarette (OR=6.74; 2.18-20.8) was also seen to have an effect. With the interaction model the odds ratio increased significantly for shamma users (OR=37.2; 12.3-113.2) and cigarette smokers (OR=10.5; 2.88-3.11). Khat was observed to have negative effect on the disease occurrence when used along with shamma (OR=0.01; 0.00 - 0.65). Conclusions: We conclude that shamma, a moist form of smokeless tobacco is a major threat for oral cancer occurrence in the Jazan region of Saudi Arabia. This study gives a direction to conduct further longitudinal studies in the region with increased sample size representing the population in order to provide more substantial evidence.

A latent profile analysis of job performance types based on task performance, contextual performance and counterproductive work behavior (과업수행, 맥락수행, 반생산적 업무행동 기반의 직무수행 유형 분석: 잠재프로파일분석을 중심으로)

  • Yoo, Young-Sam;Kim, Myoung-So;Noh, So-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.145-155
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    • 2020
  • Since Campbell (1990) proposed multidimensionality of job performance, unlike the single structure of traditional job performance, it has been largely classified as task performance, contextual performance, and counterproductive work behavior. The objective of this study is to validate the threecriteria currently considered major aspects of job performance, to identify different types of performance based on three dimensions, and to compare the power of personality factors among performance types. A total of 681 employees working at various organizations participated in an on-line survey. The survey included boththe exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. A 3-factor job performance model consisting of three dimensions was also included. The relationships between performance dimensions and personality factors differedby dimensions of performance, supporting the validity of the 3-factor structure of performance.The results of the Latent Profile Analysis identified four types of performance: exemplary, moderately conscientious moderate, and conscientious, butlow.. The Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed each type differed significantly according to the predictors of personality variables. In conclusion, implications and limitations of the study were noted.

Consumer Preference Analysis of Korean Red Ginseng Tonic for Revitalizing Korean Ginseng Industry (국내 인삼산업 활성화를 위한 홍삼토닉 소비자 선호분석)

  • Jeong, Jae Won;Lim, Sungsoo;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Kim, Seung Gyu
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2018
  • This study attempts to analyze the consumers' preference on Korean Red Ginseng Tonic, which is an essential product to revitalize Korean ginseng industry, using choice experiment method. The attributes used in the choice experiment were the ginseng age, good agricultural products(GAP), sugar, and price. A total of 1,796 experiments were collected and the value of each preferred attributes was estimated using a multinomial logistic model. The result shows that the products made from six-year-old and GAP(Good Agriculture Practice) approved Korean ginseng with less sugar were preferred. These estimated monetary values of marginal willingness to pay were about 94,000 KRW, 89,000 KRW, 5,000 KRW, respectively. Thus, the efforts to introduce and advertize GAP approved ginseng while developing new products with preferred attributes by general publics are necessary in the short run. In addition, we may need to consider developing the way to promote products using 4- and 5-year-old ginsengs, which are relatively underestimated in their health effectiveness but highly productive for farmers in the long run.

Market Segmentation to Identify Forest Recreation Welfare Consumers (산림휴양복지 수요자에 대한 시장 세분화 연구)

  • Seung Yeon Byun;Seong Yoon Heo;Ja-choon Koo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.2
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    • pp.248-257
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    • 2023
  • Because of various societal changes, such as the recent improvement in income levels and extension of the flexible work system, the demand for forest recreation activities and their use patterns are undergoing a change. Accordingly, it is necessary to identify the characteristics of each type through the segmentation of the overall forest recreation and welfare markets and to plan differentiated policies for each market type. This study classifies the forest recreation and welfare activities according to four types of users (i.e., passive usage type, ordinary type, active lover type, and indifferent type) using the Latent Class Analysis and examines their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics to explain the differences between the groups. Three policy implications were derived from the results obtained: 1) the group experiencing forest recreation welfare is subdivided; 2) the socioeconomic characteristics that distinguish the groups undertaking forest recreation activities were identified; and 3) the policy targets and characteristics that can increase the experience of forest recreation welfare were identified. This study is insightful as it suggests differentiated policies for each group and proposes policy measures to move to the desirable group.