• 제목/요약/키워드: multinomial logistic model

검색결과 73건 처리시간 0.026초

선박 부유물 감김사고의 시·공간적 분석 (Spatiotemporal Analysis of Ship Floating Object Accidents)

  • 유상록;김득봉;장다운
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제27권7호
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    • pp.1004-1010
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    • 2021
  • 선박의 해양사고 중 부유물 감김사고는 운항지연에 그치지 않고 대형 인명 피해사고까지 이어질 수 있어 이에 대한 예방책이 요구되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 영해와 베타적경제수역 등을 포함한 해역의 최근 5년간 선박의 부유물 감김사고 데이터를 시·공간적 측면에서 분석하고, 관련 연구 분야에 기초 자료를 제공하고자 한다. 부유물 감김사고의 상대적 밀도 분포를 시각화하기 위하여 이차원 평활 히스토그램을 적용하였으며, 시간대, 주·야간, 계절에 따른 각 변수가 감김사고에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 적용하였다. 공간적 분석결과 전체 사고에 대해 평활화된 밀도 값이 높은 곳은 진해만을 포함한 거제도~통영 해상이었으며, 서해 전곡항 인근 해상, 제주도 북부 해상으로 나타났다. 시간적 분석결과 부유물 감김사고는 주간에 71.4%로 가장 많이 발생하였으며, 계절별로는 가을철이 다른 계절에 비해 가장 많이 발생한 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 어선, 수상레저기구, 낚시어선의 감김사고 발생 가능성이 화물선 보다 높은 것으로 조사되었다. 본 연구의 시·공간적 분석결과는 향후 부유물에 대한 단속강화 및 제거를 위한 해양경찰함정 배치와 시간별·계절별 사고방지를 위한 부유물 사전 제거작업 대책 마련의 기초자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

단축형 사상체질 진단설문지(KS-15)의 문항 축소 연구 (The Reduction of Question Items in Korea Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Questionnaire (KS-15))

  • 김상혁;박기현;백영화;장은수;이시우
    • 사상체질의학회지
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.30-38
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    • 2020
  • Objectives The purpose of this study is to reduce the question items in Korea Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Questionnaire (KS-15) and to assess the validity. Methods The subjects of this study were 1,553 people who had information on body shape, personality, and symptoms among the data established at the Korean Medicine Data Center. Among them, 155 people were separated into a test group to assess the validity, and the remaining 1,398 were used as training groups for model development. The reduction question items were finally confirmed through discussion by two experts. The model development went through Multinomial Logistic Regression. Results & Conclusions The Percent Correctly Predicted (PCP) in the test group was 60.00% (58.49% in men and 60.78% in women). The PCP of each constitution was 72.6% in Taeeumin, 53.3% in Soeumin, and 50% in Soyangin. The accuracy rate of KS-10 seems to be reasonable considering the ease of use of reduced time required.

건강가정교육프로그램 개발을 위한 기초연구: 팀 성과행동 코칭모델을 이용한 가정의 건강성 측정 척도 개발 (Preliminary Study on Development of Educational Program for Healthy Family: Development of Scale to Measure Family Healthy by Team Performance Coaching Model)

  • 김혜연
    • Human Ecology Research
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    • 제51권3호
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    • pp.321-331
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the scale to measure family health and to analyze the data collected by the survey in order to develop the educational program for healthy family. The sample of this study is taken by 522 housewives who are living in Seoul and are over the age of 40. The data are analyzed according to frequency, percentages, t-test, Pearson's correlation analysis, and Multinomial logistic Regression analysis. The results of this study are as follows. First, the scale measuring family health is developed through interviews with the respondents, preliminary survey, and comments reviewed from specialists. The responses to the scale are significantly different depending on whether they answered their family is healthy or not. Second, minimum family performances for family health are related to the category of social involvement of the family. Third, the types of healthy family are grouped by the responses related to the current state and the status of family health. The number of the type of the worst state-the worst status of family health is the largest, followed by the number of the type of the best state-the best status of family health. Fourth, the important and significant variables that affected the types of family health are psychological variables rather than personal and household-related variables of the respondents.

Stability of Construction Cost-variability Factor Rankings from Professionals' Perspective: Evidence from Dar es Salaam -Tanzania

  • Shabani, Neema;Mselle, Justine;Sanga, Samwel Alananga;Kanuti, Arbogasti Isidori
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.17-33
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    • 2018
  • This study investigates the stability of professionals' cost variability factor-rankings across different levels of cost-variability and response scenarios. Descriptive statistics are used to examine the stability of factor-ranking for 20 cost variability factors and a Multinomial Logistic (MNL) regression model was implemented to examine the stability of cost variability factors across three cost variability levels. The finding on the descriptive statistics indicated that professionals' factors-rankings are stable only for external factors. The MNL regression results on factor-stability suggested that 8 out of the 20 evaluated factors were unstable determinant of lower cost variability levels. These factors are "risk associated with the project", "personal bias and poor professionalism of the estimators", "limited time available to complete the project", "lack of skills and experience by estimator" "geographical location of projects", "incomplete & rush designs for estimate", "unforeseen or unexpected site constraints", "high class bidders for the contractors". Similarly lack of experience and large size projects were observed to be unstable as well. These observations suggest that professionals' view on pre-tender cost variability factor-ranking yields unstable factor rankings hence should not be relied upon as the only mechanisms to mitigate cost related risks in construction projects.

반구형 통발에 대한 물레고둥 (Buccinum striatissimum)의 망목 선택성 (Mesh selectivity of a dome-shaped pot for finely-striate buccinum Buccinum striatissimum in the eastern coastal waters of Korea)

  • 박창두;배재현;조삼광;김인옥
    • 수산해양기술연구
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    • 제50권3호
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    • pp.284-291
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    • 2014
  • Finely-striate buccinum Buccinum striatissimum, a species of whelks, is caught mainly by pot in the eastern coastal waters of Korea. In order to determine the size selectivity of pot for the species, comparative fishing experiments were conducted near Yeongil Bay from June to September in 2003 using the dome-shaped pots with different five mesh sizes (17.1, 24.8, 35.3, 39.8, and 48.3 mm). The parameters of logistic equation were estimated by the SELECT (Share Each Length's Catch Total) method based on a multinomial distribution. The model with the estimated split parameter was found to fit the catch data best. The master selection curve was estimated to be s (R)=exp (13.044R-16.438)/[1 + exp (13.044R-16.438)], where R is the ratio of shell height to mesh size. The relative shell height of 50% retention was 1.260, and the selection range was 0.168. Enlargement in mesh size of the pot allows more small-sized whelks to escape.

한국 노인의 현존치아수와 골 건강상태와의 연관성 (Relationship between the number of remaining teeth and bone health status among the elderly in Korea)

  • 조윤영
    • 한국치위생학회지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.205-215
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The purpose of the study is to investigate the relationship between the number of remaining teeth and bone health status among adults over 65 years old. Methods: The study subjects were 1,843 adults over 65 years old drawn from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) in 2008-2010. Oral health status included the number of remaining teeth, and prosthetic appliance status. Bone health statuses were assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). Bone health statuses were classified into normal (T-score ${\geq}-1.0$), osteopenia (-2.5 < T-score < -1.0), and osteoporosis (T-score ${\leq}-2.5$). Complex samples chi-square test was used to estimate the relationship between the number of remaining teeth and bone health status, and related factors included in the model were analyzed with the complex samples logistic regression analysis. Results: Using the multinomial logistic regression analytic method, the elderly having 20 or more remaining teeth and those having less than 20 remaining teeth with prosthesis were compared. The latter group had 1.89 times higher rate of being diagnosed as having osteoporosis. Conclusions: This study suggests that oral health is an important factor for geriatric osteoporosis. Therefore, in order to prevent fractures due to osteoporosis and osteoporosis in old age, it is necessary to be aware of the relationship between oral health and osteoporosis, and oral health should be considered when preparing preventive management strategies.

Impact of fish consumption by subjects with prediabetes on the metabolic risk factors: using data in the 2015 (6th) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys

  • Kim, Kyoung-yun;Park, Jeong Seop
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.233-242
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The effects of fish consumption by subjects with prediabetes on the metabolic risk factors were examined based on the data from the $6^{th}$ Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys in 2015. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A total of 1,520 subjects who agreed to participate in a blood test and dietary intake survey were divided into a prediabetes group and normal blood glucose group, and the level of the subjects' fish consumption was divided into ${\leq}17.0g/day$, 18.0-93.0 g/day, and ${\geq}94g/day$. The correlation between the level of fish intake and the metabolic risk factors was evaluated by multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A significant difference in the gender distribution was observed in the prediabetes group, which is a group with a high risk of non-communicable diseases, according to the fish intake, and there were significant differences in the total energy intake, protein intake, n-3 fatty acids intake, and the intakes of sodium and micro-nutrients according to the intake group (P < 0.05). In addition, the blood total cholesterol (TC) decreased 0.422 fold in model 1 (unadjusted) [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.211-0.845] and 0.422 fold in model 2 (adjusted for sex) (95% CI: 0.210-0.846) in those with a fish intake of 18.0-93.0 g/day (P < 0.05) compared to those with a fish intake of ${\leq}17.0g/day$. The blood TC decreased 0.555 fold (95% CI: 0.311-0.989) in model 1 and 0.549 fold (95% CI: 0.302-0.997) in model 2 in those with a fish intake of ${\geq}94g/day$ compared to those with a fish intake of ${\leq}17.0g/day$ (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Subjects with prediabetes or the metabolic risk factors can maintain their blood low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and blood TC concentrations at the optimal level by consuming fish (18.0-93.0 g/day).

학령기 아동의 게임 사용시간 변화궤적 분석 : 잠재계층성장분석(LCGM)을 활용하여 (Longitudinal Trajectories of Computer Game Use among School Age Children: Using Latent Class Growth Model)

  • 김동하
    • 사회복지연구
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.303-329
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 아동발달의 변화성과 다양성을 고려하여 시간의 경과에 따라 학령기 아동의 게임 사용시간의 변화궤적을 유형화하고, 각 유형에 영향을 미치는 예측요인을 다차원적으로 검증하였다. 이를 위해 한국아동 청소년패널조사의 초1패널의 2차년도에서 6차년도까지의 자료를 활용하였으며, 본 연구의 최종 분석대상자는 총 1959명이다. 분석방법으로는 학령기 아동의 게임 사용시간 변화궤적 유형화를 위해서 잠재계층성장분석을 실시하였으며, 이후 다중로지스틱 회귀분석을 통해 유의미한 예측요인을 검증하였다. 분석결과, 학령기 아동의 게임 사용시간 변화궤적은 '게임 저사용 증가집단', '게임 초기 고사용-변동 집단', '게임 고사용 증가집단'으로 분류되었으며, 성별, 공격성, 주의집중, 방과후 보호자 부재, 주양육자의 교육수준, 형제자매, 방임, 가구소득, 연간 가족여행 횟수, 학교성적, 또래관계가 각 유형의 분류에 유의미한 영향을 미치는 예측변인으로 나타났다. 이러한 연구결과들을 바탕으로 학령기 초기 아동의 게임 과다사용에 대한 예방적 개입의 필요성을 강조하고 유용한 실천적 제언을 하였다.

Age-stratified analysis of temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis using cone-beam computed tomography

  • Hee-Jeong Song;Hang-Moon Choi;Bo-Mi Shin;Young-Jun Kim;Moon-Soo Park;Cheul Kim
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • 제54권1호
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate age-stratified radiographic features in temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis using cone-beam computed tomography. Materials and Methods: In total, 210 joints from 183 patients(144 females, 39 males, ranging from 12 to 88 years old with a mean age of 44.75±19.97 years) diagnosed with temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis were stratified by age. Mandibular condyle position and bony changes (flattening, erosion, osteophytes, subchondral sclerosis, and subchondral pseudocysts in both the condyle and articular eminence, thickening of the glenoid fossa, joint space narrowing, and joint loose bodies) were evaluated through cone-beam computed tomography. After adjusting for sex, the association between age groups and radiographic findings was analyzed using both a multiple regression model and a multinomial logistic regression model(α=0.05). Results: The prevalence of joint space narrowing and protruded condyle position in the glenoid fossa significantly increased with age (P<0.05). The risks of bony changes, including osteophytes and subchondral pseudocysts in the condyle; flattening, erosion, osteophyte, and subchondral sclerosis in the articular eminence; joint loose bodies; and thickening of the glenoid fossa, also significantly rose with increasing age (P<0.05). The number of radiographic findings increased with age; in particular, the increase was more pronounced in the temporal bone than in the mandibular condyle (P<0.05). Conclusion: Increasing age was associated with a higher frequency and greater diversity of bony changes in the temporal bone, as well as a protruded condyle position in the glenoid fossa, resulting in noticeable joint space narrowing in temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis.

다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구 (Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model)

  • 곽두안
    • 한국지리정보학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구는 산림기본법 10조에 명시되어 있는 산림자원 및 임산물 수급의 장기전망을 통한 제6차 산림기본계획 수립을 지원하기 위하여 수행되었다. 우리나라 산지의 정의는 산지관리법에서 명시하고 있으며 산림 조성, 생산, 관리를 위해 필수 불가결한 요소로서 미래 산림자원의 변화를 예측하는데 가장 기본이 되기 때문에 미래의 산지면적 변화를 예측하는 것은 향후 계획수립을 위해 매우 중요하다. 그리하여 본 연구에서는 지대극대화 이론에 근거한 임업부가가치, 농업소득, 인구밀도를 종속변수로 하는 다항로지스틱 모형을 개발함으로써 미래의 산지면적, 농지면적, 도시 및 기타지의 면적 변화를 예측할 수 있었다. 그 결과 산지면적은 2026년까지 약 6,300천ha로 줄어들어 현재 대비 약 34천ha의 감소분이 발생할 것으로 전망되었으며, 이후 2027년부터는 반등을 시작하여 6,470천ha로 늘어나 약 172천ha의 증가분이 발생할 것으로 예측되었다. 이러한 산지면적의 증가는 임업부가가치의 증가와 관련이 있고, 농지면적의 증가는 농업소득의 증가, 그리고 도시 및 기타지의 증가는 인구밀도의 증가와 양의 상관관계를 가지고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 산지면적의 주된 증가원인은 한계효과와 탄성치가 큰 인구밀도의 감소로 밝혀졌는데, 이는 저출산으로 인해 절대인구가 2032년부터 감소함에 따라 산지면적의 증가하기 때문인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 산지면적의 증가분은 도시 및 기타지에서 산지로 전환되는 면적이 대부분을 차지하는 것으로 나타났는데, 이것은 인구감소에 따른 도시 주변 지역의 인구 공동화 현상과 지방 소도시의 소멸 등과 같은 사회적인 문제에 기인하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 산지의 증가를 산지관리 차원에서 살펴보면, 증가되는 산지면적은 지목상 임야 이외의 토지로부터 편입될 것으로 전망되기 때문에, 사후 산지관리법상의 산지로서 관리되기 위해서는 산림 관련 법령의 정비는 물론 변화에 대응한 새로운 산지관리 체계를 구축하는 것이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.