• Title/Summary/Keyword: movement prediction

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Analysis of Potential Infection Site by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Using Model Patterns of Avian Influenza Outbreak Area in Republic of Korea (국내 조류인플루엔자 발생 지역의 모델 패턴을 활용한 고병원성조류인플루엔자(HPAI)의 감염가능 지역 분석)

  • EOM, Chi-Ho;PAK, Sun-Il;BAE, Sun-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.60-74
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    • 2017
  • To facilitate prevention of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a GIS is widely used for monitoring, investigating epidemics, managing HPAI-infected farms, and eradicating the disease. After the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in 2010 and 2011, the government of the Republic of Korea (ROK) established the GIS-based Korean Animal Health Integrated System (KAHIS) to avert livestock epidemics, including HPAI. However, the KAHIS is not sufficient for controlling HPAI outbreaks due to lack of responsibility in fieldwork, such as sterilization of HPAI-infected poultry farms and regions, control of infected animal movement, and implementation of an eradication strategy. An outbreak prediction model to support efficient HPAI control in the ROK is proposed here, constructed via analysis of HPAI outbreak patterns in the ROK. The results show that 82% of HPAI outbreaks occurred in Jeolla and Chungcheong Provinces. The density of poultry farms in these regions were $2.2{\pm}1.1/km^2$ and $4.2{\pm}5.6/km^2$, respectively. In addition, reared animal numbers ranged between 6,537 and 24,250 individuals in poultry farms located in HPAI outbreak regions. Following identification of poultry farms in HPAI outbreak regions, an HPAI outbreak prediction model was designed using factors such as the habitat range for migratory birds(HMB), freshwater system characteristics, and local road networks. Using these factors, poultry farms which reared 6,500-25,000 individuals were filtered and compared with number of farms actually affected by HPAI outbreaks in the ROK. The HPAI prediction model shows that 90.0% of the number of poultry farms and 54.8% of the locations of poultry farms overlapped between an actual HPAI outbreak poultry farms reported in 2014 and poultry farms estimated by HPAI outbreak prediction model in the present study. These results clearly show that the HPAI outbreak prediction model is applicable for estimating HPAI outbreak regions in ROK.

Investigation of Gas Transport Properties of Polymeric Membranes having Different Chain Lengths Via Molecular Dynamics (MD) (분자동역학을 이용한 고분자 주쇄의 길이 변화에 따른 기체 투과 성능 연구)

  • Kang, Hoseong;Park, Chi Hoon
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2018
  • In the molecular dynamics study of polymeric membranes, it is very important to select the proper length of the polymer main chain because it requires a large number of constituent atoms and a long time to simulate the permeation behavior. In this study, we tried to investigate how the correlation between polymer main chain length and permeation behavior appears in actual molecular dynamics simulation results. Molecular dynamics were performed using the widely known commercial polymer Kapton(R) polyimide structure and the gas permeation behavior was simulated. The movement of the polymer main chain was not related to its length and the short main chain length did not act more actively. In addition, unlike the prediction that the end group of the polymer main chain is relatively easy to move, there are many cases where the atoms located at the middle of the polymer main chains have a higher movement than the atoms located at the end groups. Finally, permeabilities of the gas molecules was not affected by the length of the main chain and the end groups of the polymer, which indicates that the end effect should be carefully mentioned and followed by the verification process.

Changes in Soft Tissue Profile after Surgical Correction of Prognathic Mandible (하악전돌증의 악교정수술 후 연조직 형태변화에 대한 연구)

  • Sung, Sang-Jin;Park, Hyun-Do;Kim, Jae-Seung;Moon, Yoon-Shik
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.30 no.3 s.80
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    • pp.355-365
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    • 2000
  • The treatment plan for orthognathic surgery must be based on accurate predictions, and this can be produced the most esthetic results. Treatment of prognathic mandible in adult is usually orthognathic surgery using mandible set back, but mandible with retruded chin point is needed additional chin augmentation. In this case, the directions between mandible and chin point are different therefore, the prediction of soft tissue reactions must be modified. In this study, we materialize the patients who was taken orthognathic surgery due to prognathic mandible, 11each(Group A) was taken only Bilateral Sagittal Sprit Ramus Osteotomy (BSSRO), 9each(Group B) was taken additional advancement genioplasty. The lateral cephalometric radiography taken 8 months later after orthognathic surgery by this patients were used. The results of this study were as follows : 1. The profile of lips was favorable after surgery due to upper lip to I-line became prominent and lower lip tc E-line was retruded. 2. In both group, upper lip moved posteriorly and nasolabial angle was increased. 3. The ratio of the soft tissue profile change in POGs point to skeletal B point movement was $84\%$ in group A and $66\%$ in group B, and there was statistical significance between group A and group B. 4. Vertical movement of hard tissue points is decreased in group A.

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Monitoring the Crustal Movement Before and After the Earthquake By Precise Point Positioning - Focused on 2011 Tohoku Earthquake - (정밀절대측위에 의한 지진 전·후 동아시아 지역 지각변동 모니터링 - 도호쿠 대지진을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Min Gyu;Park, Joon Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.477-484
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    • 2012
  • Recently, as earthquake is more frequently taking place around the world due to diastrophism, the importance of diastrophism and disaster detection is becoming more important. In this study, to analyze the interpretation of seismic displacement by the Japanese earthquake in March, 2011, and monitor the diastrophism of plates in Japan and surrounding Eurasia, Pacific, and Philippines before and after the earthquake, the observational data from IGS observatories in Japan and Asian regions were processed by precise point positioning. The displacement was biggest in MIZU, which was the closest to the epicenter, and the earthquake-affected region was in inverse proportion to the distance from the epicenter. The result of calculating the diastrophism speed before and after the earthquake, based on precise point positioning of IGS observatories located in the 4 plates around Japan, showed that the displacement speed changed and different plates showed different results. The comparison with the plate fate model allowed to analyze the change in diastrophism by earthquake, and to understand the characteristics of the displacement of the plates around Japan. Later, a continuous diastrophism monitoring based on GPS is needed for earthquake prediction and diastrophism research, and the data gained by continuous GPS-based monitoring of diastrophism will be fully used as basic data for relevant research and earthquake disaster management.

MID-FACIAL SOFT TISSUE CHANGES FOLLOWING ORTHOGNATHIC SURGERY OF THE MAXILLA IN KOREANS (한국인에서의 상악골 교정수술후 안면중부 연조직 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hyung-Sik;Choi, Jin-Ho;Kim, Young-Soo
    • Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.278-290
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    • 1991
  • Prediction of the sop tissue changes following hard tissue movements is very important in the preoperative analysis of surgical changes of the patient who have orthognathic surgery. This study examined post operative changes of the mid-facial sop tissues in Koreans depending upon two major positional changes of the maxilla following Le Fort - I type osteotomy for orthognathic purposes. Sixty patients(41 males and 19 females) of Koreans were selected and divided into two groups according to directional change of movement of anterior bony structures of the Maxilla as follows : Group I (44 patients) was mooed anteriorly and/or inferiorly, and Group II (16 patients) was mooed posteriorly and/or superioly. Postoperative changes of the sop tissue measurements following hard tissue changes were examined on pre - and post - operative cephalometrics by means of computerized digitation methods and the ratios of changes were analysed. The results were obtained as follows : 1. In Group I, all of the sop tissue measures except the Pn was closely followed by the changes of the hard tissue measures in the horizontal plane, but the Sn and the Cm were only correlated to the vertical changes(p<0.001). In group II, all of the sop tissue measures excluding of the N' and the Pn were significantly correlated to the hard tissue measures in horizontal plane(p<0.001), but the Ls and Stm were only correlated relatively to the vertical changes of the ANS(p<0.01). 2. Predictable ratio of the Sn was 66% of the ANS or 56% of the A in the horizontal plane and 89% of the A in the vertical plane in Group I. In Group II, the Sn was predictable as 85% of the ANS or 70% of the A in the horizontal plane but was not predictable in vertical plane. 3. Predictable ratio of the Cm was 28% of the ANS or 50% of the A in the horizontal plane and 56% of the ANS or 36% of the A in the vertical plane in Group I. In Group II, the Cm was predictable horizontally as 74% of the A. Predictable ratio of the Pn was 30% of the ANS or 38% of the A in horizontal plane in Group I, but it was not predictable both horizontally and vertically in Group II. 4. Predictable ratio of the Ls was 52% of the Pr in Group I and 77% in Group II in the horizontal plane. The Stm was predictable as 34% of the pr or 22% of the I in the horizontal plane in Group I, and was also predictable as 55% of the pr or 68% of the I horizontally and 21% of the pr or 65% of the I vertically in Group II. 5. All ratios of change in the thickness. length and area of the upper lip following maxillary movement were statiscally correlated, however, mangitudes of them were meaningful clinically.

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Prediction of the Fire Curtain Effect through a Numerical Simulation of a Reduced Scale Model for Fires in Theaters (공연장 화재 축소모형의 전산시뮬레이션을 통한 방화막 영향 예측)

  • Kim, Dong Hwan;Lee, Chi Young;Kim, Duncan
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2018
  • Although a fire curtain plays an important role in preventing smoke from spreading to the auditorium in a theater fire, there has been insufficient research on fire curtains. In this study, to check the accuracy of numerical simulation, for previous experiments using a reduced scale model, a numerical simulation was carried out, and the results were compared with previous experimental data. The fire curtain effect was then predicted numerically. A Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) was used, and the natural exhaust vent sizes were set to ~10%, ~5%, and ~1% of the stage floor area. The smoke movement was visualized, and the mass flow rates and temperatures were measured and analyzed. In addition, the law of similarity was used to examine the influence of a fire curtain in a real scale theater fire. Without the fire curtain, the present numerical simulation results were in agreement with the previous experimental data within reasonable accuracy. Meanwhile, the fire curtain affects the mass flow rates through the natural exhaust vent and proscenium opening, as well as the start time of soot outflow to the auditorium. Overall, the present results can be used to develop a fire curtain system.

A Design and Implementation of Floor Detection Application Using RC Car Simulator (RC카 시뮬레이터를 이용한 바닥 탐지 응용 설계 및 구현)

  • Lee, Yoona;Park, Young-Ho;Ihm, Sun-Young
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.8 no.12
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    • pp.507-516
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    • 2019
  • Costs invested in road maintenance and road development are on the rise. However, due to accidents such as portholes and ground subsidence, the risks to the drivers' safety and the material damage caused by accidents are also increasing. Following this trend, we have developed a system that determines road damage, according to the magnitude of vibration generated without directly intervening the driver when driving. In this paper, we implemented the system using a remote control car (RC car) simulator due to the limitation of the environment in which the actual vehicle is not available in the process of developing the system. In addition, we attached a vibration sensor and GPS sensor to the body of the RC car simulator to measure the vibration value and location information generated by the movement of the vehicle in real-time while driving, and transmitting the corresponding data to the server. In this way, we implemented a system that allows external users to check the damage of roads and the maintenance of the repaired roads based on data more easily than the existing systems. By using this system, we can perform early prediction of road breakage and pattern prediction based on the data. Further, for the RC car simulator, commercialization will be possible by combining it with business in other fields that require flatness.

Mixing Analysis of Oil Spilled into the River by GPS-equipped Drifter Experiment and Numerical Modeling (GPS 부자 실험과 수치모델링에 의한 하천에 유입된 유류오염물질의 거동 해석)

  • Jang, Juhyoung;Jong, Jaehun;Mun, Hyunsaing;Kim, Kyunghyun;Seo, Ilwon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.243-252
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    • 2016
  • In cases of water pollution accidents, accurate prediction for arrival time and concentration of contaminants in a river is essential to take proper measures and minimize their impact on downstream water intake facilities. It is critical to fully understand the behavior characteristics of contaminants on river surface, especially in case of oil spill accidents. Therefore, in this study, the effects of main parameters of advection and diffusion of contaminants were analyzed and validated by comparing the results of Lagrangian particle tracking (LPT) simulation of Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) model with those of Global Position System (GPS)-equipped drifter experiment. Prevention scenario modeling was accomplished by taking cases of movable weir operation into account. The simulated water level and flow velocity fluctuations agreed well with observations. There was no significant difference in the speed of surface particle movement between 5 and 10 layer modeling. Therefore, 5 layer modeling could be chosen to reduce computational time. It was found that full three dimensional modeling simulated wind effects on surface particle movements more sensitively than depth-averaged two dimensional modeling. The diffusion range of particles was linearly proportional to horizontal diffusivity by sensitivity analysis. Horizontal diffusivity estimated from the results of GPS-equipped drifter experiment was 0.096 m2/sec, which was considered to be valid for applying the LPT module in this area. Finally, the scenario analysis results showed that particle movements could be stagnant when discharge from the upstream weir was reduced, implying the possibility of securing time for mitigation actions such as oil boom installation and wiping oil contaminants. The outcomes of this study can help improve the prediction accuracy of particle tracking simulation to establish the most suitable mitigation plan considering the combination of movable weir operation.

A Impact Analysis of Air Quality by Air Pollution Control Facilities Improvement on Point Source Pollution (점오염원의 대기오염방지시설 개선에 의한 대기질 영향 분석)

  • Jeon, Byeong-Geun;Lee, Sang-Houck
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.2876-2882
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    • 2015
  • The object of this study is to identify changes in air pollution in the maximum ground level concentration and the surrounding area when air pollution control facilities are improved in the thermal power plants. The effects of improved facilities are analyzed by comparing air quality after applying improved air pollution control facilities. For prediction of air quality, the change of wind field can be represented with movement of Puff and CALPUFF Model, air pollution diffusion models which can implement abnormal conditions. Major air pollutants of thermal power plants such as $SO_2$, $NO_2$, and $PM_{10}$ are selected as prediction items. That results show that improvement of air pollution control facilities is significantly effective in reduction of air pollution of $SO_2$ and $NO_2$ in the maximum ground level concentration and areas around of thermal power plants. In the case of $PM_{10}$, it is found that the effect of reduction in pollution is high in the maximum ground level concentration, but the effect of reduction in air pollution is somewhat low in the area around of the thermal power plant.

Gene signature for prediction of radiosensitivity in human papillomavirus-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

  • Kim, Su Il;Kang, Jeong Wook;Noh, Joo Kyung;Jung, Hae Rim;Lee, Young Chan;Lee, Jung Woo;Kong, Moonkyoo;Eun, Young-Gyu
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The probability of recurrence of cancer after adjuvant or definitive radiotherapy in patients with human papillomavirus-negative (HPV(-)) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) varies for each patient. This study aimed to identify and validate radiation sensitivity signature (RSS) of patients with HPV(-) HNSCC to predict the recurrence of cancer after radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: Clonogenic survival assays were performed to assess radiosensitivity in 14 HNSCC cell lines. We identified genes closely correlated with radiosensitivity and validated them in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort. The validated RSS were analyzed by ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA) to identify canonical pathways, upstream regulators, diseases and functions, and gene networks related to radiosensitive genes in HPV(-) HNSCC. Results: The survival fraction of 14 HNSCC cell lines after exposure to 2 Gy of radiation ranged from 48% to 72%. Six genes were positively correlated and 35 genes were negatively correlated with radioresistance, respectively. RSS was validated in the HPV(-) TCGA HNSCC cohort (n = 203), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate was found to be significantly lower in the radioresistant group than in the radiosensitive group (p = 0.035). Cell death and survival, cell-to-cell signaling, and cellular movement were significantly enriched in RSS, and RSSs were highly correlated with each other. Conclusion: We derived a HPV(-) HNSCC-specific RSS and validated it in an independent cohort. The outcome of adjuvant or definitive radiotherapy in HPV(-) patients with HNSCC can be predicted by analyzing their RSS, which might help in establishing a personalized therapeutic plan.