• Title/Summary/Keyword: mortality trend

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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A Trend for Atroventricular Valve Regurgitation after a Modified Fontan Operation (변형 폰탄 수술 시행 이후에 방실 판막 폐쇄부전의 변화 양상)

  • Lim, Hong-Gook;Lee, Chang-Ha;Seo, Hong-Joo;Kim, Woong-Han;Hwang, Seong-Wook;Lee, Cheul
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 2008
  • Background: Anatomic and functional abnormalities of the systemic atrioventricular (AV) valve are common in single ventricle. pathologies and continue to be associated with poor early and late outcomes in surgically palliated single. ventricle patients. We aggressively performed valvuloplasty for atrioventricular valve regurgitation (AVVR) during the course toward a Fontan operation. Material and Method: Between January 1995 and December 2004, 209 patients underwent a Fontan operation in our institution. We retrospectively evaluated the prevalence of AVVR and the influence of AV valve repair on outcome, and we analyzed the progression of AVVR after the Fontan operation for 168 patients where echocardiographic follow up results for more than 6 months after the Fontan operation were available. During the course toward a Fontan operation, 25 patients underwent 30 procedures for AVVR. These procedures. were. carried out during placement of a bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt (BCPS) for nine patients, between the time of placement of a BCPS and the Fontan operation for four patients, and during the Fontan operation for 17 patients. Five patients underwent procedures for AVVR twice. Result: The late mortality rate after the Fontan operation was 4.2% (n=7), with a median follow-up duration of 52 months (range, $6{\sim}123$ months). Seven patients (4%) had unfavorable outcomes such as significant (moderate or severe) AVVR in six patients, and significant AV valve stenosis in one patient was determined at the last follow up after the Fontan operation. Among the seven patients, four patients underwent AV valve repair after the Fontan operation, and one patient underwent subsequent AV valve replacement. Progression to AVVR of equal to or greater than grade 2 was noted in 30 patients (18%) at the last follow up after the Fontan operation, including 12 patients that underwent previous AV valve procedures. Initial grading of AVVR, a previous AV valve operation, and specific AV valve morphology such as a common AV valve or mitral atresia were significant risk factors for the progression of AVVR after the Fontan operation. Conclusion: In our surgical series, a small percentage of patients showed unfavorable outcomes. related to AVVR during the course toward a Fontan operation. However, a closer follow-up is required to evaluate the progression of the AVVR after a Fontan operation, especially for patients showing poor AV valve function at the first presentation and specific AV valve morphology.

Variation in Harmful Algal Blooms in Korean coastal waters since 1970 (1970년대 이후 한국 연안의 적조 발생 변화)

  • Lim, Weol-Ae;Go, Woo-Jin;Kim, Kyoung-Yeon;Park, Jong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.523-530
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    • 2020
  • Based on the results of harmful algal blooms (HABs) monitoring by the National Institute of Fisheries Science and local governments, the effects of changes in the marine environment on HABs are described. Since the beginning of HABs monitoring in 1972, they continued to increase from the 1980s to the 1990s. After the largest number of HAB incidents (109) in 1998; the trend declined until the 2010s. Most HABs in the 1970s were caused by diatoms. In the 1980s, coastal dinoflagellates caused HABs; Cochlodinium polykrikoides blooms have been occurring continuously since 1993. There are three HAB species that cause damage to fisheries in Korea. The high-density bloom of Karenia mikimotoi caused mass mortality in shellfish in Jinhae Bay in 1981. Karenia sp. blooms occurring around Tongyeong in 1992 killed aquaculture fish. Since the occurrence of the largest fisheries damage of KRW 76.6 billion in 1995 caused by C. polykrikoides blooms, they have been occurring continuously. The concentration of nutrients in coastal waters was the highest in the 1980s and has declined since the mid-1990s. This reduction in nutrient concentration is a good explanation for the decreasing number of HABs. Since 2016, a summer high water temperature of 30℃ or more has appeared, and the range and scale of C. polykrikoides blooms have been greatly reduced. In 2016, K. mikimotoi blooms occurred around Wando, Jangheung and Goheung and small scale blooms of C. polykrikoides occurred around Yeosu. There were no C. polykrikoides blooms in 2017; however, Alexandrium affine blooms occurred from Yeosu to Tongyeong. There was a small-scale blooms of C. polykrikoides in 2018 compared to those in the previous years. Our results show that reduction in nutrients and the high water temperature owing to climate change are a good explanation for variation in HABs in Korean coastal waters.

Effects of Dietary Kaolin on the Performance, Product Quality and Feeding Environment of Growing Ducks (고령토를 첨가한 사료의 급여가 육용오리의 능력과 생산물의 품질 및 사육환경에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee W. J.;Lee K. H.
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2005
  • A study was carried out to examine the effects of dietary kaolin on the performance, feed and nutrient efficiency, meat quality and feeding environment using 200 day-old growing ducts. Four replicates of 10 birds each was assigned to diets containing 0(C), 1 (T1), 2(T2), 3(T3) and $4(T4)\%$ of kaolin. Body weight gain in T1 and T2 were higher than in $C(p<0.05)$ whereas weight gain in T3 and T4 were not significantly different from the control. Feed intake and feed conversion ratio tended to increased as the level of dietary kaolin increased, but without significant differences among treatments. Mortality of growing ducks during 6 week period was not significantly different among treatments. Dressing percentage was highest in T1 and lowest in T4 $(p<0.05)$. The utilizability of nutrients except for crude fat Increased$(p<0.05)$, as the level of dietary kaolin increased. Moisture content and $NH_3$ gas emission of excreta was not significantly influenced by dietary kaolin. $H_2S$ gas emission of excreta in T2, T3 and T4 was lower compare to that in C and $T1(p<0.05)$. Cholesterol content in breast and thigh meat was not different among treatments. Values for pH, WHC, TBARS, POV and Cooking loss of breast and thigh meat were not significantly different or did not show any trend among treatments.

Selection for Duration of Fertility and Mule Duck White Plumage Colour in a Synthetic Strain of Ducks (Anas platyrhynchos)

  • Liu, H.C.;Huang, J.F.;Lee, S.R.;Liu, H.L.;Hsieh, C.H.;Huang, C.W.;Huang, M.C.;Tai, C.;Poivey, J.P.;Rouvier, R.;Cheng, Y.S.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.605-611
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    • 2015
  • A synthetic strain of ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) was developed by introducing genes for long duration of fertility to be used as mother of mule ducklings and a seven-generation selection experiment was conducted to increase the number of fertile eggs after a single artificial insemination (AI) with pooled Muscovy semen. Reciprocal crossbreeding between Brown Tsaiya LRI-2 (with long duration of fertility) and Pekin L-201 (with white plumage mule ducklings) ducks produced the G0. Then G1 were intercrossed to produce G2 and so on for the following generations. Each female duck was inseminated 3 times, at 26, 29, and 32 weeks of age. The eggs were collected for 14 days from day 2 after AI. Individual data regarding the number of incubated eggs (Ie), the number of fertile eggs at candling at day 7 of incubation (F), the total number of dead embryos (M), the maximum duration of fertility (Dm) and the number of hatched mule ducklings (H) with plumage colour were recorded. The selection criterion was the breeding values of the best linear unbiased prediction animal model for F. The results show high percentage of exhibited heterosis in G2 for traits to improve (19.1% for F and 12.9% for H); F with a value of 5.92 (vs 3.74 in the Pekin L-201) was improved in the G2. Heritabilities were found to be low for Ie ($h^2=0.07{\pm}0.03$) and M ($h^2=0.07{\pm}0.01$), moderately low for Dm ($h^2=0.13{\pm}0.02$), of medium values for H ($h^2=0.20{\pm}0.03$) and F ($h^2=0.23{\pm}0.03$). High and favourable genetic correlations existed between F and Dm ($r_g=0.93$), between F and H ($r_g=0.97$) and between Dm and H ($r_g=0.90$). The selection experiment showed a positive trend for phenotypic values of F (6.38 fertile eggs in G10 of synthetic strain vs 5.59 eggs in G4, and 3.74 eggs in Pekin L-201), with correlated response for increasing H (5.73 ducklings in G10 vs 4.86 in G4, and 3.09 ducklings in Pekin L-201) and maximum duration of the fertile period without increasing the embryo mortality rate. The average predicted genetic response for F was 40% of genetic standard deviation per generation of selection. The mule ducklings' feather colour also was improved. It was concluded that this study provided results for a better understanding of the genetics of the duration of fertility traits in the common female duck bred for mule and that the selection of a synthetic strain was effective method of improvement.

A Basie Health Survey of the Yonsei Community Health Service Area, Seoul (연세지역(延世地域)에 대(對)한 보건기초조사(保健基礎調査))

  • Yang, Jae-Mo;Kim, Myung-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 1968
  • Introduction In order to improve medical education through the introduction of a concept of comprehensive health care of a community, an area surrounding the University Campus was chosen for the Community Health Service Project. It has been on operation for last 4 years with its major emphasis on family planning services, and maternal and child health care. The major objectives of this survey at the area are to obtain: 1) The demographic data, 2) The health need and trend of medical care, 3) The attitude and practice in maternity care to be used for further improvement of the planning and the services of the project. Population and Survey Method Out of three Dongs of the Community Health Service Area, only two Dongs namely Changchun and Yonhee were selected for the survey. Total number of households and population in the area studied was 3,683 and 21,857 respectively. An interview was performed with questionnaire schedule which was recorded by interviewers. This includes the degree of utilization of health services provided by the Community Health Service Program such as family planning, prenatal care during their last pregnancy, delivery history and complications of the delivery as well as the incidence of illnesses in general. Prior to the interview, all interviewers were trained for interviewing technique for two days. The survey was carried out during the period from October December 1967. Results 1) Demographic Data : 41.3% of the population studied were children under age 15 and only 3.5% were over 60 years of age. Crude birth rate and crude death rate of this area studied during the period of November 1966-October 1967 were 20.5 and 7.7 respectively. Infant mortality rate during the same period was 35.9. 50.4% of the 2,832 households fell into the category of middle class, 39.8% to the lower class and 9.5% to the upper class in economic condition. 19.8% of 2,832 householders had no formal education, 22.7% primary school, and 57.5% middle or higher school education. 2) Health Status and Utilization of the Community Health Service: Those who suffered from many illnesses during the month of October, 1967 were 690(4.6% of 14,891 persons). Classification of these patients into the type of disease shown respiratory diseases 27.4%, gastrointestinal diseases 18.1%, tuberculosis 10.9%, skin and genitourethral diseases 4.5% and gynecologic patients 4.5%. Only 55.9% of the patients received medical care at hospital or doctor's clinic. But among TB and gynecologic patients, 70.7% and 72.4% were treated at medical facilities. 10.6% of 2,832 householders interviewed has ever utilized the Community Health Service Program provided by the Yonsei Medical School, Classifying these clients into the type of service, 35.9% utilized the wellbaby clinic, 31.0% the family planning clinic, 14.7% the home delivery care, and the rest utilized other services such as the premarital guidance cinlic and the sanitary inspection service. 3) Maternity Care: 23.6% of 2,151 deliveries were done at medical facilities such as hospital, private clinic, while 76.4% were done at home. Acceptance rate of prenatal care was 32.6% as whole, but 49.6 of 774 women who had the prenatal care service had their deliveries at medical facility. 45.1% of total deliveries were attended by medical and or paramedical personnel. 75.8% of the deliveries of those received prenatal care were attended by medical and or paramedical personnel while only 27.8% of the deliveries of those who did not have prenatal care attended by medical and or paramedical personnel. 49.8% of deliveries of the upper class, 29.8% of the middle class and 9.9% of the lower class were attended by medical and or paramedical personnel. 6.2, 3.3% and 24.8% of mothers reported about their xeperience of edema, coma and fever during the period of trimester of pregnancy and puerperium. 4) Family Planning: The rate of practice of family planning was 27.9%. 31.7% of them were by IUD, 2.9% by oral pill, 15.2% by sterilization and the rest by traditional methods. Those women who had 3 to 4 children had highest(30.2%). Practice rate among the various methods of family planning, oral pill was the most popular method to whom had 2 or less children. In relation between the practicing rate of family planning and living standard, the upper, middle and lower class practiced 37.5, 29.4 and 19.9% respectively.

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Technical Efficiency of Medical Resource Supply and Demand (의료자원 공급, 수요의 성과 효율성에 대한 실증분석)

  • Chang, Insu;Ahn, Hyeong Seok;Kim, Brian H.S.
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study is to observe the efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources in Korea. For the empirical analysis, we constructed the dataset on age standardized mortality rate, the number of physician, specialist, surgery, medical institution, ratio of general hospitals of 16 provinces in Korea from 2006 to 2013. The panel probability frontier model is employed as an analysis method and considered heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation of the error in panel data. In addition, the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the 16 provinces, unemployment rate, elderly population ratio, GRDP per capita, and ratio of hospitals in comparison to the general hospitals are used to find the effect on the technical efficiency of clinical performance on supply and demand of medical resources. The results are as follows. First, for the clinical performance, the supply side of human resources such as doctors and specialists and the demand side factors such as chronic illness clinic per unit population have a significant influence, respectively. Second, the technical efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources of each input component was 59-70% in terms of clinical efficiency in each region. Third. estimates of technical efficiency of inputs that affect clinical performance showed a slight increase in all regions during the analysis period, but the increase trend decreased slightly. Fourth, the ratio of the elderly population and GRDP per capita have a positive influence on the technical efficiency of clinical performance on the supply and demand of medical resources. The difference of each efficiency by region is due to the regional differences of the input medical resources and the combination of them and the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the region. It is understood that the differences in technological efficiency due to the complexity of supply and demand of medical resources, demographic structure and economic difference affecting clinical performance by region are different.

A Study on Ten Years Trend of Cancer Incidence and Evaluation of Quality of Cancer Registration in Daejeon Metropolitan City and Chungcheongnam-Do, Korea: 2000-2009 (대전·충남지역의 암 발생률 추이와 질적 평가에 대한 연구 -2000년부터 2009년까지 10년간 자료를 중심으로-)

  • Park, Un-Je;Nam, Hae-Seong;Kim, Kwang-Hwan;Park, Chang-Soo;Kwon, In-Sun;Kim, Jeong-A;Lee, Tae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1234-1244
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    • 2013
  • This study aimed to analyze the ten years cancer incidence based on diagnosis years 2000-2009, and to evaluate the quality of cancer registry in Daejeon City and Chungcheongnam-Do, Korea. Crude incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) in these two regions were compared, and validity of incidence data was assessed by three indicators; age unknown (Age UNK%), histological verification (HV%), and death certificate only (DCO%). Mortality/incidence ratio (M/I ratio) was used to evaluate completeness of incidence data. Incidence rate differences were assessed using Poission distribution and calculated their 95% confidence interval of ASR, and those by sex, age, and region were compared by incidence rate curve. As a result, the highest cancer site during 2000-2009 was stomach in both regions, and incidence prpportion were 18.8% in Daejeon, 21.5% in Chungnam. The overall cancer incidence was higher in males than in females, and ASR of total cancer in Daejeon increased 0.6% (from 322.1 to 323.9 per 100,000) for men and 60.3% (from 203.9 to 326.8) for women, that in Chungnam increased 14.3% (from 294.7 to 336.9) for men and 70.7% (from 156.5 to 267.1) for women. The Age UNK% during 2000-2009 were 0.0% in both regions. MV% for men was increased from 71.8% to 88.5% and that for women was increased from 78.1% to 93.2%. DCO% for men was decreased from 6.4% to 0.7% and that for women was decreased from 5.4% to 0.8%. M/I ratio was ranged from 15.3% to 62.1% and can be evaluated fairy good registration.

Changes of Hemodynamic and Central Pulmonary Artery Dimension After Bidirectional Cavopulmonarv Shunt (양방향성 체정맥-폐동맥 단락술후 혈역학 및 중심 폐동맥 크기의 변화)

  • 이정렬;이해원
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.29 no.12
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    • pp.1306-1315
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    • 1996
  • This study reviewed the changes of hemodynamlcs and centrAl pulmonary artery dimension in 54 patients who underwent bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt(BCPS) between February 1992 and December 1995 at Seoul National University Childrell's Hospital. Ag and body weight of patients averaged 36.8 $\pm$ 37.7 months and 8.0$\pm$3.0 kg, respectively Eightynine percent of patients had more than 2 violations of the risk factors for Fontan operation, resulting overall hospital mortality of 16.6%(9154). Serial hemodynamic and anglographic examinations before and mean 16.3 $\pm$ 14.3 months iirter BCPS were compared. The arterial oxygen saturation improved from a preoperative value of 71 9: 10.1 % to 79.H $\pm$ 8. 5% (n:4), p<0.05). The values of arterial oxygen saturation were lower as the age of the patients with BCPS in place was older(n=22, R'=0.341, p=0.004). A mean pulmonary artery pressure and pulmonary vascular resistance reduced from 31 $\pm$17 to 1).5$\pm$3.SmmHg(n=22, p<0.05) and from ).2$\pm$2.1 to 2.3$\pm$2.7 unit (n=7. p>0.05), respectively. Follow-up study showed a significant Increase of absolute values of ipsilateral pulmoanry artery (n: 14, p<0.05), but no change of contralateral pulmonary artreries (n: 14. p=not significant(HSI). However, there w re significant decreases in diameters of both ipsilateral and contralateral pulmonary arteries standardized by patients' body surface areas(16.8% decrease, n: 14, p< 0. 05 for ipsilatreal, 25.1%, n=14, p<0.05 for contralateral). Pulmonary artery indices for cross sectional areas of both pulmonary arterises decreased 9.3 $\pm$ 13.8% with showing a trend of more decrease as the follow-up duration was longer, We conclude that the bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt provide an excellent.

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Epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia in Children at a Single Center from 2002 to 2016 (단일 기관에서 2002년부터 2016년까지 발생한 소아 황색포도알균 균혈증의 역학)

  • Lim, Seonhee;Ha, Seok Gyun;Tchah, Hann;Jeon, In Sang;Ryoo, Eell;Son, Dong Woo;Cho, Hye Jung;Sun, Yong Han;Kim, Hyo Jung;Ahn, Jung Min;Cho, Hye-Kyung
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: We aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia in Korean children. Methods: We retrospectively collected and analyzed data from the medical records of the patients with S. aureus bacteremia ${\leq}18years$ of age in Gil Medical Center from 2002 to 2016. Results: A total of 212 SAB cases were detected. The annual incidence of SAB from 2002 to 2016 ranged from 0.77 to 1.95 per 1,000 patients hospitalized. The neonate group (<28 days of age) and the pediatric group (28-18 years of age) were 51.4% (n=109) and 48.6% (n=103), respectively. According to the origin of infection, there were 93 cases (43.9%) of community-associated (CA)-SAB and 119 cases (56.1%) of healthcare-associated (HA)-SAB. The rates of HA-SAB among the neonate group and among the pediatric group were 64.2% and 47.6%, respectively (P=0.015). There was no difference in complications between CA-SAB and HA-SAB, but mortality was higher in HA-SAB. The proportion of methicillin-resistance S. aureus (MRSA) was the highest in neonates (88.1%), decreased with age, and was 36.4%-37.5% among children aged ${\geq}5years$. The MRSA proportion was 72.2%, showing no consistent trend over the period. Conclusions: The annual incidence of SAB and the proportion of MRSA in SAB remained constant in the recent 15 years in children. Judicious decision of antimicrobial agents for treatment considering the patient's age and the origin of infection is necessary.