• Korean Circulation Journal
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• 제52권11호
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• pp.829-843
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• 2022

Background and Objectives: Despite remarkable reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, the burden has remained the leading cause of death. Since little research has focused on regional disparity in CVD mortality, this study aims to investigate its spatiotemporal trends in Korea from 1983 to 2019. Methods: Using the causes of death statistics in Korea, we analyzed the geographic variation in deaths from CVDs from 1983 to 2019. The sex and age-standardized mortality rate was calculated according to the 17 administrative regions. The analyses include all diseases of the circulatory system (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes, I00-I99), along with the following 6 subcategories which were not mutually exclusive: total heart disease (I00-I13 and I20-I51), hypertensive heart disease (I10-I13), ischemic heart disease (I20-I25), myocardial infarction (I21-I23), heart failure (I50), and cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69). Results: Overall, heart failure death rate increased across all regions, and other CVD death rates showed a decreasing trend. Regional disparity in mortality was substantial in the early 1980s but converged over time. In all types of cardiovascular mortality, Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam remained the highest, although they showed a downward trend like other regions. Jeju continued to have a relatively low CVD mortality rate. Conclusions: The regional disparity substantially decreased compared to the 1980s. However, the relatively high burden of CVD mortality in the southeastern region has not been fully resolved.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.421-437
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• 2020

본 논문은 최근에 널리 사용되고 있는 R 프로그램으로 출산율, 사망률, 국제이동률을 예측하고 이들 결과를 Leslie 행렬에 대입해 인구추계 산출하는 방법을 소개한다. 특히 Kaneko (2003)가 제안한 출산율의 일반화로그감마모형, Li 등 (2013)의 사망률 LC-ER 모형, Ramsay와 Silverman (2005)가 제안한 국제이동률의 함수적데이터모형을 시현할 수 있도록 하였다. 최근 R로 구현된 대표적인 인구추계 패키지로 demography, bayesPop가 소개되고 있으나, 이는 Human Mortality Database (HMD), Human Fertility Database (HFD)에 업로드된 자료에 한에서만 분석이 가능하고 기타 데이터를 적용하기 위해서는 자료 변경과 수정이 요구된다. 특히 우리나라의 경우 HMD에 단기 간의 자료로만 제공되어 있어 이 패키기를 적용하기에는 한계점이 있다. 이에 본 논문은 이런 실정과 한국의 저출산, 고령화, 내국인, 외국인 국제이동률 상이패턴을 반영할 수 있는 R 프로그램을 소개하고, 2117년까지의 인구추계를 도출하였다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.89-113
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• 2006

본 연구는 개발도상국의 지역별 인구변천 유형과 특징을 검토하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 개발도상국의 인구변천 유형을 인구변천 단계와 관련시키고 있다. 그 다음으로 출산력과 사망력이 지난 40년간 어떻게 변화되어 왔는지를 다양한 지표를 활용하여 검토하고 있다. 분석결과 출산력의 경우 아프리카 지역은 최근까지도 비교적 높은 출산율을 보여 인구변천의 제2단계에 돌입한 것으로 보인다. 이 지역은 또한 알제리, 리비아, 모로코 등 아프리카 북부지역의 국가와 나머지 국가들이 인구변천 과정에서 뚜렷한 차이를 보인다. 서남아시아의 국가들 역시 인구변천의 제2단계에 있다고 볼 수 있다. 서남아시아 국가 증 아프카니스탄과 예맨은 지난 40년 간 출산력 수준의 변화는 거의 없고 사망력 수준만 약간 감소하는 전형적인 아프리카 형태를 보이고 있다. 이에 반해 동아시아 지역은 출산력의 감소 속도가 사망률의 감소 속도보다 훨씬 빠르게 나타나서 인구의 증가폭이 둔화되는 양상을 보이는 인구변천의 제3단계에 속한다고 볼 수 있다. 중남미 지역 국가들도 동남아시아 국가들의 경우와 비슷하게 출산력의 감소 속도가 사망력의 감소 속도보다 빠르게 나타나 인구의 증가 폭이 둔화되는 인구변천의 제3단계에 속한다. 특히 동남아시아의 한국과 싱가포르는 매우 빠른 속도로 출산력 감소를 보였으며 최근에는 오히려 저출산이 문제가 될 정도로 낮은 출산력 수준을 보이고 있다. 사망력의 경우 특히 평균수명은 지역별로 큰 차이를 보인다. 평균수명이 가장 높은 국가 중의 하나인 싱가포르가 78.0세인데 반해 르완다는 39.9세에 머무르고 있다. 아프리카의 평균수명이 낮은 것은 여러 가지 설명이 가능하나 최근에 크게 확산되고 있는 에이즈의 영향이 가장 클 것으로 판단된다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.367-370
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• 2012

Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in women worldwide In Iran, it ranks first among cancers diagnosed in women and is the fifth most common cause of death. The aim of this study was to present the mortality trends from breast cancer for Iranian women during a period of almost a decade, in order to provide update information regarding the likely future. Methods: We analyzed National death Statistic reported by the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education from 1995 to 2004 to generate annual mortality rates/100,000, overall, by age group (<15, 15-49 and ${\geq}50$ years of age) and age standardized rate (ASR). Results: The age standardized mortality rate of breast cancer increased dramatically during these years from 1.40 to 3.52 per 100,000 and its mortality was increasing 151.4% for Iranian women, although it seemed that the rate leveled off from 2002 to 2004. Moreover the increasing rate was higher for those aged between 15-49 compared to age >50 years old. Conclusion: There is an increasing trend for breast cancer mortality in Iran. Thus, health education programs to rectify the lack of women awareness about breast cancer signs and effective screening are urgently needed.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.1701-1704
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• 2016

Background: Stomach cancer (SC) is the second leading cause of cancer death with the rate of 10.4% in the world. The correlation between the incidence and mortality rates of SC and human development index (HDI) has not been globally determined. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the association between the incidence and mortality rates of SC and HDI in various regions. Materials and Methods: In this global ecological study, we used the data about the incidence and mortality rate of SC and HDI from the global cancer project and the United Nations Development Programme database, respectively. Results: In 2012, SCs were estimated to have affected a total of 951,594 individuals (crude rate: 13.5 per 100,000 individuals) with a male/female ratio of 1.97, and caused 723,073 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 10.2 per 100,000 individuals). There was a positive correlation between the HDI and both incidence (r=0.28, P<0.05) and mortality rates of SC (r=0.13, P = 0.1) in the world in 2012. Conclusions: The high incidence and mortality rates of SC in countries with high and very high HDI is remarkable which should be the top priority of interventions for global health policymakers. In addition, health programs should be provided to reduce the burden of this disease in the regions with high incidence and mortality rates of SC.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.77-96
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• 2018

주택연금은 계약기간이 확정되어 있지 않기 때문에 계약 종료 시점에 대한 확률분포 예측이 장수리스크 관리를 위하여 중요하다. 따라서 고령화의 주요인인 기대수명의 연장은 연금 재정건전성에 심각한 영향을 끼칠 수 있기 때문에 사망률의 개선 추세가 적절히 반영된 사망률 예측 연구가 선행될 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 Lee-Carter (LC) 모형과 연생모형을 이용하여 주택연금 계리모형에 사망률 개선 효과를 반영하였다. 전통적 LC 모형을 통한 사망률 예측 방식은 미래 사망률이 지나치게 개선되는 현상을 보이고 있기 때문에 사망률 개선효과를 조금 더 적절한 수준으로 보정하고자 본 연구에서는 사망확률 분포의 편중을 나타내는 왜도를 활용한 LC 모형을 적용하였다. 왜도 예측 방식을 LC 모형에 적용한 방법론을 사용하여 주택연금 월 지급금을 산출해본 결과 전통적 LC 모형의 사망률 예측보다 사망률 개선효과를 더 적게 반영하여 더 큰 월 지급금이 산출되었고, 왜도 활용 LC 모형에 의한 이러한 결과는 장수 리스크를 덜 왜곡한다는 데 의의가 있다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구 결과는 사망률 감소 추세를 적절하게 반영한 위험률을 계산하여 주택연금의 발행기관 및 보증기관의 적정한 월 지급금 지급과 차후 월 지급금의 과대지급으로 인한 지급불능을 방지할 수 있는 리스크 관리 방법으로 이용될 수도 있다.

• 대한임상독성학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.21-27
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• 2019

Purpose: Mortality rate in the health services research field is frequently considered as a proxy for measuring healthcare quality. We compared the mortality rate and hospitalization levels among patients with poisoning. Methods: A population-based study of hospital size and level based on the Korean health insurance and assessment service was conducted to identify the impact of hospital level on patient mortality. Results: We analyzed a total of 16,416 patients, of which 7,607 were from tertiary hospitals, 8,490 were from general hospitals, and 319 were from hospitals. The highest mortality rate of diagnosis regarding poisoning was T60.31 (other herbicides and fungicides, 16%), followed by T60.0 (organophosphate and carbamate insecticides, 12.7%). There was no statistical difference in mortality among hospital levels for gender. Among age groups, tertiary hospitals had lower mortality than general hospitals and hospitals for patients aged more than 70 years (11.9% mortality at tertiary vs 14.2% at general and 23% at hospital; p=0.003, adjusted z score=-6.9), general hospitals had lower mortality than tertiary hospitals and hospitals for patients aged 18 to 29 (0.6% at general vs 2.4% at tertiary and 3.7% at hospital; p=0.01, adjusted z score=-4.3), and hospitals had lower mortality than tertiary hospitals and general hospitals for patients between 50 and 59 years of age (0% at hospital vs 6.4% at general and 8.3% at tertiary; p=0.004). Conclusion: Overall, there was no significant difference between mortality and hospital level among poisoned patients. However, to establish an efficient treatment system for patients with poisoning, further studies will be needed to identify the role of each facility according to hospital level.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.177-190
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• 2006

The aim of this study is to propose a Bayesian model for fitting mortality rate of colon cancer. For the analysis of mortality rate of a disease, factors such as age classes of population and spatial characteristics of the location are very important. The model proposed in this study allows the age class to be a random effect in addition to its conventional role as the covariate of a linear regression, while the spatial factor being a random effect. The model is fitted using Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Posterior expected predictive deviances, standardized residuals, and residual plots are used for comparison of models. It is found that the proposed model has smaller residuals and better predictive accuracy. Lastly, we described patterns in disease maps for colon cancer.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.381-386
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• 2016

Background: Bladder cancer is an international public health problem. It is the ninth most common cancer and the fourteenth leading cause of death due to cancer worldwide. Given aging populations, the incidence of this cancer is rising. Information on the incidence and mortality of the disease, and their relationship with level of economic development is essential for better planning. The aim of the study was to investigate bladder cancer incidence and mortality rates, and their relationship with the the Human Development Index (HDI) in the world. Materials and Methods: Data were obtained from incidence and mortality rates presented by GLOBOCAN in 2012. Data on HDI and its components were extracted from the global bank site. The number and standardized incidence and mortality rates were reported by regions and the distribution of the disease were drawn in the world. For data analysis, the relationship between incidence and death rates, and HDI and its components was measured using correlation coefficients and SPSS software. The level of significance was set at 0.05. Results: In 2012, 429,793 bladder cancer cases and 165,084 bladder death cases occurred in the world. Five countries that had the highest age-standardized incidence were Belgium 17.5 per 100,000, Lebanon 16.6/100,000, Malta 15.8/100,000, Turkey 15.2/100,000, and Denmark 14.4/100,000. Five countries that had the highest age-standardized death rates were Turkey 6.6 per 100,000, Egypt 6.5/100,000, Iraq 6.3/100,000, Lebanon 6.3/100,000, and Mali 5.2/100,000. There was a positive linear relationship between the standardized incidence rate and HDI (r=0.653, P<0.001), so that there was a positive correlation between the standardized incidence rate with life expectancy at birth, average years of schooling, and the level of income per person of population. A positive linear relationship was also noted between the standardized mortality rate and HDI (r=0.308, P<0.001). There was a positive correlation between the standardized mortality rate with life expectancy at birth, average years of schooling, and the level of income per person of population. Conclusions: The incidence of bladder cancer in developed countries and parts of Africa was higher, while the highest mortality rate was observed in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. The program for better treatment in developing countries to reduce mortality from the cancer and more detaiuled studies on the etiology of are essential.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권8호
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• pp.4101-4105
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• 2016

Background: Mortality among Iranian patients with colorectal cancer has not been fully examined and the factors associated with their survival are still controversial. This study aimed to determine the mortality rate and its related factors among the patients with colorectal cancer in southwestern regions in Iran. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted on 220 patients with colorectal cancer referred to Fahighi Hospital, Shiraz, Iran from 2009 to 2014. Data were collected from the patients' medical records and were analyzed using Cox regression analysis. Results: Over a median follow-up of 29.3 months, 56 out of the 220 patients (25.5%) died, 32 (14.5%) aged below 40 years, and 45.5% were female. Based on the results of multiple Cox regression analysis, family history of gastrointestinal cancer, stage III, former smoking, type of lesion (fungative and polypoid), and opium use were associated with a greater risk of colorectal cancer mortality (all P<0.05). Conclusions: This cohort study found that the mortality rate of colorectal cancer in Iran is lower than that in European countries. In addition, behavioral and clinical factors were significantly associated with the survival rate. Addressing the related factors would help healthcare providers and physicians provide the best care and improve the survival rate.