• 제목/요약/키워드: mortality model

검색결과 635건 처리시간 0.253초

부산지역 PM10, PM2.5 일평균에 의한 호흡기 및 심혈관질환 초과위험도 분포 (Effect of Daily Mean PM10 and PM2.5 on Distribution of Excessive Mortality Risks from Respiratory and Cardiovascular Diseases in Busan)

  • 도우곤;정우식
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제30권7호
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    • pp.573-584
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    • 2021
  • To analyze the effects of PM10 and PM2.5 on daily mortality cases, the relations of death counts from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases with PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were applied to the generalized additive model (GAM) in this study. From the coefficients of the GAM model, the excessive mortality risks due to an increase of 10 ㎍/m3 in daily mean PM10 and PM2.5 for each cause were calculated. The excessive risks of deaths from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases were 0.64%, 1.69%, and 1.16%, respectively, owing to PM10 increase and 0.42%, 2.80%, and 0.91%, respectively, owing to PM2.5 increase. Our result showed that particulate matter posed a greater risk of death from respiratory diseases and is consistent with the cases in Europe and China. The regional distribution of excessive risk of death is 0.24%-0.81%, 0.34%-2.6%, and 0.62%-1.94% from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases, respectively, owing to PM10 increase, and 0.14%-1.02%, 1.07%-3.92%, and 0.22%-1.73% from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases, respectively, owing to PM2.5 increase. Our results represented a different aspect from the regional concentration distributions. Thus, we saw that the concentration distributions of air pollutants differ from the affected areas and identified the need for a policy to reduce damage rather than reduce concentrations.

로지스틱 회귀분석과 다수준 분석을 이용한 Craniotomy 환자의 사망률 평가결과의 일치도 분석 (Comparing Risk-adjusted In-hospital Mortality for Craniotomies : Logistic Regression versus Multilevel Analysis)

  • 김선희;이광수
    • 보건의료산업학회지
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality for craniotomies between logistic regression and multilevel analysis. By using patient sample data from the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service, in-patients with a craniotomy were selected as the survey target. The sample data were collected from a total number of 2,335 patients from 90 hospitals. The sample data were analyzed with SAS 9.3. From the results of the existing logistic regression analysis and multilevel analysis, the values from the multilevel analysis represented a better model than that of logistic regression. The intra-class correlation (ICC) was 18.0%. It was found that risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality for craniotomies may vary in every hospital. The agreement by kappa coefficient between the two methods was good for the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality for craniotomies, but the factors influencing the outcome for that were different.

제 2형 당뇨병 환자의 유방암 발생 위험 및 사망률에 대한 메트포민의 영향: 체계적 문헌고찰 및 메타분석 (Effects of Metformin on Breast Cancer Risk and Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis)

  • 천부순
    • 한국임상약학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.131-137
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    • 2015
  • Background: The protective effect of metformin against breast cancer is inconclusive. Objective: To evaluate the effect of metformin on breast cancer risk and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. Method: A comprehensive literature search was performed for pertinent articles published prior to June 30, 2014, using PubMed and EMBASE. Study heterogeneity was estimated with $I^2$ statistic. The data from the included studies were pooled and weighted by random-effects model. The quality of each included study was assessed on the basis of the 9-star Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and publication bias was evaluated by visual inspection of a funnel plot. Results: Ten studies were included in the meta-analysis of the association of metformin and breast cancer risk. By synthesizing the data from the studies, the pooled odds ratio (OR) was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.87) (p = 0.0005). Three cohort studies were included for meta-analysis of the association between metformin and breast cancer-related mortality. Metformin was associated with a significant decrease in mortality (Risk ratio: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.51, 0.90, p = 0.007). Conclusion: The present meta-analysis suggests that metformin appears to be associated with a lower risk of breast cancer incidence and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

기후변화로 인한 고온의 미래 사망부담 추정 (Estimation of Future Death Burden of High Temperatures from Climate Change)

  • 양지훈;하종식
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.19-31
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: Elevated temperatures during summer months have been reported since the early 20th century to be associated with increased daily mortality. However, future death impacts of high temperatures resulting from climate change could be variously estimated in consideration of the future changes in historical temperature-mortality relationships, mortality, and population. This study examined the future death burden of high temperatures resulting from climate change in Seoul over the period of 2001-2040. Methods: We calculated yearly death burden attributable to high temperatures stemming from climate change in Seoul from 2001-2040. These future death burdens from high temperature were computed by multiplying relative risk, temperature, mortality, and population at any future point. To incorporate adaptation, we assumed future changes in temperature-mortality relationships (i.e. threshold temperatures and slopes), which were estimated as short-term temperature effects using a Poisson regression model. Results: The results show that climate change will lead to a substantial increase in summer high temperature-related death burden in the future, even considering adaptation by the population group. The yearly death burden attributable to elevated temperatures ranged from approximately 0.7 deaths per 100,000 people in 2001-2010 to about 1.5 deaths per 100,000 people in Seoul in 2036-2040. Conclusions: This study suggests that adaptation strategies and communication regarding future health risks stemming from climate change are necessary for the public and for the political leadership of South Korea.

조선후기의 출산력, 사망력 및 인구증가: 네 족보에 나타난 1700$\sim$1899년간 생몰 기록을 이용한 연구 (Fertility, Mortality, and Population Growth in 18th and 19th Century Korea: Evidence from Genealogies)

  • 차명수
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.113-137
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    • 2009
  • 이 논문의 목적은 족보에 나타난 생몰 기록을 근거로 조선후기의 사망력, 출산력, 인구 증가율을 추정하는 것이다. 족보에서 파악되 양반 남성의 사망력 수준을 식민지기 사망력 추계 및 모델 생명표를 이용해 전체 인구의 사망력으로 변환한 결과 18, 19세기 우리나라 남성의 출생시 기대여명은 23세로 추정되었다. 족보에서 계산된 양반 여성의 출산력 수준으로부터 여성 초혼 연령 및 식민지기 출산력 추계를 이용해서 전체 인구의 출산력을 추정한 결과는 조선 후기의 합계 출산율이 6.81이었음을 알려주었다. 추정된 조선 후기 사망력 및 출산력 지표를 안정 인구를 묘사하는 방정식에 대입해서 추정한 18, 19세기의 인구 증가율은 0.62%였다.

소멸위험지역과 치료 가능 사망률 간의 관계 (Relationship between Extinction Risk Regions and Amenable Mortality)

  • 설진주;조형경;이현지;이광수
    • 보건행정학회지
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    • 제31권2호
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    • pp.188-196
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    • 2021
  • Background: This study purposed to analyze the relationship between extinction risk regions and amenable mortality. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study based on the statistics of 2018 which was extracted from the 228 administrative districts in Korea. Cause of death statistics on each region in 2018 was used to produce the age-adjusted amenable mortality. Regional characteristics were measured by demographic factors, health behavior factors, socioeconomic factors, and medical resources factors. Multiple linear regression model was applied to test their relationship. Results: Results showed that extinction risk regions, crude divorce rates, national cancer screening rates, and independent rate of finance were significantly related to the amenable mortality. Conclusion: The study demonstrated differences in health status by the extinction risks of regions. This study suggests that the use of customized community care program can provide integrated services such as housing, health care or the use of information and communications technology which can make early diagnosis.

Healthcare Systems and COVID-19 Mortality in Selected OECD Countries: A Panel Quantile Regression Analysis

  • Jalil Safaei;Andisheh Saliminezhad
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제56권6호
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    • pp.515-522
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: The pandemic caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exerted an unprecedented impact on the health of populations worldwide. However, the adverse health consequences of the pandemic in terms of infection and mortality rates have varied across countries. In this study, we investigate whether COVID-19 mortality rates across a group of developed nations are associated with characteristics of their healthcare systems, beyond the differential policy responses in those countries. Methods: To achieve the study objective, we distinguished healthcare systems based on the extent of healthcare decommodification. Using available daily data from 2020, 2021, and 2022, we applied quantile regression with non-additive fixed effects to estimate mortality rates across quantiles. Our analysis began prior to vaccine development (in 2020) and continued after the vaccines were introduced (throughout 2021 and part of 2022). Results: The findings indicate that higher testing rates, coupled with more stringent containment and public health measures, had a significant negative impact on the death rate in both pre-vaccination and post-vaccination models. The data from the post-vaccination model demonstrate that higher vaccination rates were associated with significant decreases in fatalities. Additionally, our research indicates that countries with healthcare systems characterized by high and medium levels of decommodification experienced lower mortality rates than those with healthcare systems involving low decommodification. Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that stronger public health infrastructure and more inclusive social protections have mitigated the severity of the pandemic's adverse health impacts, more so than emergency containment measures and social restrictions.

Effect of Resveratrol on Coxsackie Virus B3m-induced Myocarditis in Mice

  • Dong Hao-Han;He-Li Ren
    • 한국식품영양과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국식품영양과학회 2004년도 Annual Meeting and International Symposium
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    • pp.116-121
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    • 2004
  • To observe the intervening effect of resveratrol on coxsackie virus B3m-induced myocarditis in Balb/c mice and explore the mechanism of intervening effect. Using an animal model of viral myocarditis induced by coxsackie virus B3m (CVB3m), with Ribavirin and Astragalan as comparison, to examine the changes of general condition, mortality, the weights of heart, liver and spleen, serum MDA and NO levels, and cardiac histology in Balb/c mice. By comparison with Ribavirin and Astragalan, it was found that in the mice model of viral myocarditis induced by coxsackie virus B3m resveratrol significantly improved the changes of general condition, mortality, the weights of heart, liver and spleen, serum MDA and NO levels, and cardiac histology. It suggested that resveratrol may have some chemopreventive and chemotherapeutic effects in the treatment of viral myocarditis.

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Korean Regional Mortality Differences According to Geographic Location

  • Lee, Sang-Gyu
    • 보건교육건강증진학회지
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.51-65
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: To examine the regional mortality differences in The Republic of Korea according to geographic location. Methods: All 232 administrative districts of the Republic of Korea in 1998 were studied according to their geographic locations by dividing each district into three categories; "metropolis," "urban," and "rural". Crude mortality rates for doth sexes from total deaths as well as the three major causes of death in Korea (cardiovascular disease, cancer, and external causes) were calculated with raw data from the "1998 report on the causes of death statistics" and resident registration data. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated using the indirect standardization method. Poisson regression analyses were performed to examine the effects of geographic locations on the risk of death. To correct for the socioeconomic differences of each region, the percentage of old ($\geq$ 65 years old) population, the number of privately owned cars per 100 population, and per capita manufacturing production industries were included in the model. Results: Most SMRs were the lowest in the metropolis and the highest in the rural areas. These differences were more prominent in men and in deaths from external causes. In deaths from cancer in women, the rural region showed the lowest SMR. In Poisson regression analysis after correcting for regional socioeconomic differences, the risk of death from all causes significantly increased in both urban (OR=1.111) and rural (OR=1.100) regions, except for rural women, compared to the metropolis region. In men, the rural region showed higher risk (OR=1.180) than the urban region (OR=1.l51). For cardiovascular disease and cancer, significant differences were not found between geographic locations, except in urban women for cardiovascular disease (OR=1.151) and in rural women for cancer (OR=0.887), compared to metropolis women. In deaths from external causes, the risk ratios significantly increased in both urban and rural regions and an increasing tendency from the metropolis to the rural region was clearly observed in both sexes. Conclusions: Regional mortality differences according to geographic location exist in The Republic of Korea and further research and policy approaches to reduce these differences are needed. to reduce these differences are needed.

Impact of particulate matter on the morbidity and mortality and its assessment of economic costs

  • Ramazanova, Elmira;Tokazhanov, Galym;Kerimray, Aiymgul;Lee, Woojin
    • Advances in environmental research
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.17-41
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    • 2021
  • Kazakhstan's cities experience high concentrations levels of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), which is well-known for its highly detrimental effect on the human health. A further increase in PM concentrations in the future could lead to a higher air pollution-caused morbidity and mortality, causing an increase in healthcare expenditures by the government. However, to prevent elevated PM concentrations in the future, more stringent standards could be implemented by lowering current maximum allowable PM concentration limit to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s limits. Therefore, this study aims to find out what impact this change in environmental policy towards PM has on state economy in the long run. Future PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were estimated using multiple linear regression based on gross regional product (GRP) and population growth parameters. Dose-response model was based on World Health Organization's approach for the identification of mortality, morbidity and healthcare costs due to air pollution. Analysis of concentrations revealed that only 6 out of 21 cities of Kazakhstan did not exceed the EU limit on PM10 concentration. Changing environmental standards resulted in the 71.7% decrease in mortality and 77% decrease in morbidity cases in all cities compared to the case without changes in environmental policy. Moreover, the cost of morbidity and mortality associated with air pollution decreased by $669 million in 2030 and $2183 million in 2050 in case of implementation of OECD standards. Thus, changing environmental regulations will be beneficial in terms of both of mortality reduction and state budget saving.