• Title/Summary/Keyword: monthly precipitation

Search Result 383, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Development of Naïve-Bayes classification and multiple linear regression model to predict agricultural reservoir storage rate based on weather forecast data (기상예보자료 기반의 농업용저수지 저수율 전망을 위한 나이브 베이즈 분류 및 다중선형 회귀모형 개발)

  • Kim, Jin Uk;Jung, Chung Gil;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.51 no.10
    • /
    • pp.839-852
    • /
    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to predict monthly agricultural reservoir storage by developing weather data-based Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) with precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, and average wind speed. Using Naïve-Bayes classification, total 1,559 nationwide reservoirs were classified into 30 clusters based on geomorphological specification (effective storage volume, irrigation area, watershed area, latitude, longitude and frequency of drought). For each cluster, the monthly MLRM was derived using 13 years (2002~2014) meteorological data by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and reservoir storage rate data by KRC (Korea Rural Community). The MLRM for reservoir storage rate showed the determination coefficient ($R^2$) of 0.76, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.73, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.33% respectively. The MLRM was evaluated for 2 years (2015~2016) using 3 months weather forecast data of GloSea5 (GS5) by KMA. The Reservoir Drought Index (RDI) that was represented by present and normal year reservoir storage rate showed that the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) average hit rate was 0.80 using observed data and 0.73 using GS5 data in the MLRM. Using the results of this study, future reservoir storage rates can be predicted and used as decision-making data on stable future agricultural water supply.

Ecological Distribution Characteristics of Gammurs sobaegensis by Natural Disturbance in Mountain Stream (하천생태계의 자연적 교란에 의한 보통옆새우(Gammarus sobaegensis)의 생태학적 분포특성)

  • Lee, Yeon-Ho;Byun, Jin-Su;Park, Jung-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.47 no.spc
    • /
    • pp.10-18
    • /
    • 2014
  • The habitat characteristic of the Gammarus sobaegensis which is one of the Amphipoda kinds has been found inhabiting in the inter mountain stream at Ganseong stream. From the investigation, the main inhabitant area of the G. sobaegensis maintained the water temperature under $10^{\circ}C$ during the spring and autumn season, and the electric conductivity was also maintaining under $40{\mu}Scm^{-1}$. For the precipitation, for this year when the monthly accredited rainfall did not exceed 800 mm, it did not affect maintaining the population of the G. sobaegensis but when the monthly accredited rainfall exceeded 1,000 mm it was found to be working as a unfavorable condition for maintaining the population. The effect especially from this kind of rainfall created the flow of G. sobaegensis as well as the flow of the fallen leaves which are the food resources and affected the population of the G. sobaegensis as a multiple interruption reason. Among the Functional Feeding Groups (FFGs) distribution depending on the use of the food resources the shredders showed up in the ratio of 20% in the site 1~3, and showed a big difference with the site 4~7 as it showed up in the ratio near 10%. Also, after comparing the variation of the individual number among the G. sobaegensis and shredders at the site 1~3 where G. sobaegensis mainly shows up, it showed the same variation pattern except for 2009.

Study of Groundwater Recharge Rate Change by Using Groundwater Level and GRACE Data in Korea (지하수위와 GRACE 자료를 이용한 국내 지하수 함양량 변화 연구)

  • Jeon, Hang-Tak;Hamm, Se-Yeong;Jo, Young-Heon;Kim, Jinsoo;Park, Soyoung;Cheong, Jae-Yeol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
    • /
    • v.29 no.3
    • /
    • pp.265-277
    • /
    • 2019
  • Changes in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation, in conjunction with global warming and climate change, critically impact groundwater recharge and associated groundwater level fluctuations. Monthly gravity levels by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) are acquired to monitor total water storage changes at regional and global scales. However, there are inherent difficulties in quantitatively relating the GRACE observations to groundwater level data due to the difficulties in spatially representing groundwater levels. Here three local interpolation methods (kriging, inverse distance weighted, and natural neighbor) were implemented to estimate the areal distribution of groundwater recharge changes in South Korea during the 2002-2016 period. The interpolated monthly groundwater recharge changes are compared with the GRACE-derived groundwater storage changes. There is a weak decrease in the groundwater recharge changes over time in both the GRACE observations and groundwater measurements, with the rate of groundwater recharge change exhibiting mean and median values of -0.01 and -0.02 cm/month, respectively.

Analysis of the Cloud Removal Effect of Sentinel-2A/B NDVI Monthly Composite Images for Rice Paddy and High-altitude Cabbage Fields (논과 고랭지 배추밭 대상 Sentinel-2A/B 정규식생지수 월 합성영상의 구름 제거 효과 분석)

  • Eun, Jeong;Kim, Sun-Hwa;Kim, Taeho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.37 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.1545-1557
    • /
    • 2021
  • Crops show sensitive spectral characteristics according to their species and growth conditions and although frequent observation is required especially in summer, it is difficult to utilize optical satellite images due to the rainy season. To solve this problem, Constrained Cloud-Maximum Normalized difference vegetation index Composite (CC-MNC) algorithm was developed to generate periodic composite images with minimal cloud effect. In thisstudy, using this method, monthly Sentinel-2A/B Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) composite images were produced for paddies and high-latitude cabbage fields from 2019 to 2021. In August 2020, which received 200mm more precipitation than other periods, the effect of clouds, was also significant in MODIS NDVI 16-day composite product. Except for this period, the CC-MNC method was able to reduce the cloud ratio of 45.4% of the original daily image to 14.9%. In the case of rice paddy, there was no significant difference between Sentinel-2A/B and MODIS NDVI values. In addition, it was possible to monitor the rice growth cycle well even with a revisit cycle 5 days. In the case of high-latitude cabbage fields, Sentinel-2A/B showed the short growth cycle of cabbage well, but MODIS showed limitations in spatial resolution. In addition, the CC-MNC method showed that cloud pixels were used for compositing at the harvest time, suggesting that the View Zenith Angle (VZA) threshold needsto be adjusted according to the domestic region.

Effects of Climatic Condition in September on Pine-mushroom(Tricholoma matsutake) Yield and a Method for Overcoming the Limiting Factors in Korea (한국(韓國)에서 9월(月)의 기상인자(氣象因子)가 송이 발생(發生)에 미치는 영향(影響)과 그 극복방안(克服方案))

  • Park, Hyun;Kim, Kyo-Soo;Koo, Chang-Duck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.84 no.4
    • /
    • pp.479-488
    • /
    • 1995
  • Relationships between pine-mushroom(Tricholoma matsutake) yield and important climatic factors for the yield(such as monthly precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, and radiation percentage) were examined to find out limiting factors for pine-mushroom production and to develop a method for overcoming the factors by analyzing the yield and climate data for 17 years collected from 18 main regions of pine-mushroom production. Although there were variations among the production regions, climatic condition of September was the most significant factor for pine-mushroom yield in general, and the degrees of importance of each climatic factors were different among the production regions. Mean minimum temperature of September was positively correlated with pine-mushroom yield($$r^2{\geq_-}0.41$$) at the 1% level, of which were 9 regions such as Youngduck, Uljin, Samchuck, Bongwha arid so on. In these regions, vegetation control was expected to be effective for pine-mushroom production by allowing much sunlight penetration to the pine stand, which may increase soil temperature and keeping the temperature around the fungal colony in soil. Precipitation during September was positively correlated with pine-mushroom yield($$r^2{\geq_-}0.41$$) at Namwon, Moonkyung and Sangju. Thus, irrigation around fungal colony in dry soil during September would be effective for enhancing mushroom yield at the regions. Pine-mushroom yield of 1994 was quite low, similar to that of 1993, due to serious drought. In this period, we could manifest the possibility of enhancing pine-mushroom yield by irrigation for overcoming drought at Moonkyung and Keochang regions.

  • PDF

Assessing hydrologic impact of climate change in Jeju Island using multiple GCMs and watershed modeling (다중 GCM과 유역모델링을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 제주도의 수문학적 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Chul Gyum;Cho, Jaepil;Kim, Nam Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.51 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-18
    • /
    • 2018
  • The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.

Changes in Meteorological Variables by SO2 Emissions over East Asia using a Linux-based U.K. Earth System Model (리눅스 기반 U.K. 지구시스템모형을 이용한 동아시아 SO2 배출에 따른 기상장 변화)

  • Youn, Daeok;Song, Hyunggyu;Lee, Johan
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.43 no.1
    • /
    • pp.60-76
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study presents a software full setup and the following test execution times in a Linux cluster for the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) and then compares the model results from control and experimental simulations of the UKESM relative to various observations. Despite its low resolution, the latest version of the UKESM can simulate tropospheric chemistry-aerosol processes and the stratospheric ozone chemistry using the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UKCA) module. The UKESM with UKCA (UKESM-UKCA) can treat atmospheric chemistryaerosol-cloud-radiation interactions throughout the whole atmosphere. In addition to the control UKESM run with the default CMIP5 SO2 emission dataset, an experimental run was conducted to evaluate the aerosol effects on meteorology by changing atmospheric SO2 loading with the newest REAS data over East Asia. The simulation period of the two model runs was 28 years, from January 1, 1982 to December 31, 2009. Spatial distributions of monthly mean aerosol optical depth, 2-m temperature, and precipitation intensity from model simulations and observations over East Asia were compared. The spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation from the two model simulations were generally in reasonable agreement with the observations. The simulated ozone concentration and total column ozone also agreed reasonably with the ERA5 reanalyzed one. Comparisons of spatial patterns and linear trends led to the conclusion that the model simulation with the newest SO2 emission dataset over East Asia showed better temporal changes in temperature and precipitation over the western Pacific and inland China. Our results are in line with previous finding that SO2 emissions over East Asia are an important factor for the atmospheric environment and climate change. This study confirms that the UKESM can be installed and operated in a Linux cluster-computing environment. Thus, researchers in various fields would have better access to the UKESM, which can handle the carbon cycle and atmospheric environment on Earth with interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land.

Calculation of Damage to Whole Crop Corn Yield by Abnormal Climate Using Machine Learning (기계학습모델을 이용한 이상기상에 따른 사일리지용 옥수수 생산량에 미치는 피해 산정)

  • Ji Yung Kim;Jae Seong Choi;Hyun Wook Jo;Moonju Kim;Byong Wan Kim;Kyung Il Sung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
    • /
    • v.43 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-21
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to estimate the damage of Whole Crop Corn (WCC; Zea Mays L.) according to abnormal climate using machine learning as the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and present the damage through mapping. The collected WCC data was 3,232. The climate data was collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration's meteorological data open portal. The machine learning model used DeepCrossing. The damage was calculated using climate data from the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS, 95 sites) by machine learning. The calculation of damage was the difference between the dry matter yield (DMY)normal and DMYabnormal. The normal climate was set as the 40-year of climate data according to the year of WCC data (1978-2017). The level of abnormal climate by temperature and precipitation was set as RCP 4.5 standard. The DMYnormal ranged from 13,845-19,347 kg/ha. The damage of WCC which was differed depending on the region and level of abnormal climate where abnormal temperature and precipitation occurred. The damage of abnormal temperature in 2050 and 2100 ranged from -263 to 360 and -1,023 to 92 kg/ha, respectively. The damage of abnormal precipitation in 2050 and 2100 was ranged from -17 to 2 and -12 to 2 kg/ha, respectively. The maximum damage was 360 kg/ha that the abnormal temperature in 2050. As the average monthly temperature increases, the DMY of WCC tends to increase. The damage calculated through the RCP 4.5 standard was presented as a mapping using QGIS. Although this study applied the scenario in which greenhouse gas reduction was carried out, additional research needs to be conducted applying an RCP scenario in which greenhouse gas reduction is not performed.

Calculation and Monthly Characteristics of Satellite-based Heat Flux Over the Ocean Around the Korea Peninsula (한반도 주변 해양에서 위성 기반 열플럭스 산출 및 월별 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Jaemin;Lee, Yun Gon;Park, Jun Dong;Sohn, Eun Ha;Jang, Jae-Dong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.519-533
    • /
    • 2018
  • The sensible heat flux (SHF)and latent heat flux (LHF) over Korean Peninsula ocean during recent 4 years were calculated using Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) 3.5 bulk algorithm and satellite-based atmospheric-ocean variables. Among the four input variables (10-m wind speed; U, sea surface temperature; $T_s$, air temperature; $T_a$, and air humidity; $Q_a$) required for heat flux calculation, Ta and $Q_a$, which are not observed directly by satellites, were estimated from empirical relations developed using satellite-based columnar atmospheric water vapor (W) and $T_s$. The estimated satellite-based $T_a$ and $Q_a$ show high correlation coefficients above 0.96 with the buoy observations. The temporal and spatial variability of monthly ocean heat fluxes were analyzed for the Korean Peninsula ocean. The SHF showed low values of $20W/m^2$ over the entire areas from March to August. Particularly, in July, SHF from the atmosphere to the ocean, which is less than $0W/m^2$, has been shown in some areas. The SHF gradually increased from September and reached the maximum value in December. Similarly, The LHF showed low values of $40W/m^2$ from April to July, but it increased rapidly from autumn and was highest in December. The analysis of monthly characteristics of the meteorological variables affecting the heat fluxes revealed that the variation in differences of temperature and humidity between air and sea modulate the SHF and LHF, respectively. In addition, as the sensitivity of SHF and LHF to U increase in winter, it contributed to the highest values of ocean heat fluxes in this season.

A Study on the Generalization of Multiple Linear Regression Model for Monthly-runoff Estimation (선형회귀모형(線型回歸模型)에 의한 하천(河川) 월(月) 유출량(流出量) 추정(推定)의 일반화(一般化)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Tai Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.131-144
    • /
    • 1980
  • The Linear Regression Model to extend the monthly runoff data in the short-recorded river was proposed by the author in 1979. Here in this study generalization precedure is made to apply that model to any given river basin and to any given station. Lengthier monthly runoff data generated by this generalized model would be useful for water resources assessment and waterworks planning. The results are as follows. 1. This Linear Regression Model which is a transformed water-balance equation attempts to represent the physical properties of the parameters and the time and space varient system in catchment response lumpedly, qualitatively and deductively through the regression coefficients as component grey box, whereas deterministic model deals the foregoings distributedly, quantitatively and inductively through all the integrated processes in the catchment response. This Linear Regression Model would be termed "Statistically deterministic model". 2. Linear regression equations are obtained at four hydrostation in Geum-river basin. Significance test of equations is carried out according to the statistical criterion and shows "Highly" It is recognized th at the regression coefficients of each parameter vary regularly with catchment area increase. Those are: The larger the catchment area, the bigger the loss of precipitation due to interception and detention storage in crease. The larger the catchment area, the bigger the release of baseflow due to catchment slope decrease and storage capacity increase. The larger the catchment area, the bigger the loss of evapotranspiration due to more naked coverage and soil properties. These facts coincide well with hydrological commonsenses. 3. Generalized diagram of regression coefficients is made to follow those commonsenses. By this diagram, Linear Regression Model would be set up for a given river basin and for a given station (Fig.10).

  • PDF