• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제48권2호
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• pp.90-99
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• 2023

Background: Quantitative risk assessments should be accompanied by uncertainty analyses of the risk models employed in the calculations. In this study, we aim to develop a computational code named SUMRAY for use in cancer risk projections from radiation exposure taking into account uncertainties. We also aim to make SUMRAY publicly available as a resource for further improvement of risk projection. Materials and Methods: SUMRAY has two versions of code written in R and Python. The risk models used in SUMRAY for all-solid-cancer mortality and incidence were those published in the Life Span Study of a cohort of the atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The confidence intervals associated with the evaluated risks were derived by propagating the statistical uncertainties in the risk model parameter estimates by the Monte Carlo method. Results and Discussion: SUMRAY was used to calculate the lifetime or time-integrated attributable risks of cancer under an exposure scenario (baseline rates, dose[s], age[s] at exposure, age at the end of follow-up, sex) specified by the user. The results were compared with those calculated using another well-known web-based tool, Radiation Risk Assessment Tool (RadRAT; National Institutes of Health), and showed a reasonable agreement within the estimated confidential interval. Compared with RadRAT, SUMRAY can be used for a wide range of applications, as it allows the risk projection with arbitrarily specified risk models and/or population reference data. Conclusion: The reliabilities of SUMRAY with the present risk-model parameters and their variance-covariance matrices were verified by comparing them with those of the other codes. The SUMRAY code is distributed to the public as an open-source code under the Massachusetts Institute of Technology license.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권7호
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• pp.2578-2590
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• 2023

In this work, a 24-month two-batch fuel management strategy for the APR1400 using LEU + has been investigated, where enrichments of 5.9 and 5.2 w/o are utilized in lieu of the conventional 4-5 w/o UO₂ fuel. In addition, an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) clad based on the swaging technology is applied to APR1400 fuel assemblies. In this special ATF clad design, both outer and inner SS316 layers protect the conventional zircaloy clad. Erbia (Er₂O₃) is introduced as a burnable absorber with two-fold goals to lower the critical boron concentration in the long-cycle LEU + loaded core as well as to handle the LEU + fuel in the existing front-end fuel facilities without renewing the license. Two types of fuel assemblies with different loading of gadolinia (Gd₂O₃) are considered to control both the reactivity and the core radial power distribution. The erbia burnable absorber is uniformly admixed with UO₂ in all fuel pins except for the gadolinia-bearing ones. In this study, two core designs were devised with different erbia loading, and core performance and safety parameters were evaluated for each case in comparison with a core design without any burnable absorbers. The core analysis was done using the two-step method. First, cross-sections are generated by the SERPENT 2 Monte Carlo code, and the 3-D neutronic analysis is performed with an in-house multi-physics nodal code KANT.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.99-99
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• 2022

Jeju island has a humid subtropical climate and this climate zone is expected to migrate northward toward the main land, Korea Peninsula, as temperature increases are accelerated. Vegetation type has been inevitably shifted along with the climatic change, having more subtropical species native in southeast Asia or even in Africa. With the forest composition shift, it becomes more important than ever to analyze the water balance of the forest wihth the ongoing as well as upcoming climate change. Here, we implemented the Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model (ED2) by initializing the key variables using forest inventory data (diameter at breast height in 2012). Out of 10,000 parameter sets randomly generated from prior distribution distributions of each parameter (i.e., Monte-Carlo Method), we selected four behavioral parameter sets using remote-sensing data (LAI-MOD15A2H, GPP-MOD17A2H, and ET-MOD16A2, 8-days at 500-m during 2001-2005), and evaluated the performances using eddy-covariance carbon flux data (2012 Mar.-Sep. 30-min) and remote sensing data between 2006-2020. We simulated each of the four RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from four climate forcings (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5 from ISIMIP2b). Based on those 64 simulation sets, we estimate the changes in water balance resulting from the forest composition shift, and also uncertainty in the estimates and the sensitivity of the estimates to the parameters, climate forcings, and RCP scenarios.

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.57-65
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• 2024

내화 구조물에서는 환기 계수, 재료 탄성 계수, 항복 강도, 열팽창 계수, 외력 및 화재 위치에서 불확실성이 관찰된다. 환기 불확실성은 화재 온도에 영향을 미치고, 이는 다시 구조물 온도에 영향을 미친다. 이러한 온도는 재료 특성과 함께 불확실한 구조적 응답으로 이어지고 있다. 화재 시 구조적 비선형 거동으로 인해 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 사용하여 화재 취약성을 계산하는데, 이는 시간이 많이 소요된다. 따라서 머신러닝 알고리즘을 활용해 화재 취약성 분석을 예측함으로써 효율성을 높이고 정확성을 확보하려는 연구가 진행되고 있다. 이 연구에서는 화재 크기, 위치, 구조 재료 특성의 불확실성을 고려하여 철골 모멘트 골조 건물의 화재 취약성을 예측했다. 화재 시 비선형 구조 거동 결과를 기반으로 한 취약성 곡선은 로그 정규 분포를 따른다. 마지막으로 제안한 방법이 화재 취약성을 정확하고 효율적으로 예측할 수 있음을 보여주었다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권11호
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• pp.4287-4294
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• 2023

In order to meet the energy demand, energy production must be done continuously. Hydrogen seems to be the best alternative for this energy production, because it is both an environmentally friendly and renewable energy source. In this study, the hydrogen fuel production of the peaceful nuclear explosives (PACER) fusion blanket as the energy source integrated with Fe-Cl thermochemical water splitting cycle have been investigated. Firstly, neutronic analyzes of the PACER fusion blanket were performed. Necessary neutronic studies were performed in the Monte Carlo calculation method. Molten salt fuel has been considered mole-fractions of heavy metal salt (ThF₄, UF₄ and ThF₄+UF₄) by 2, 6 and 12 mol. % with Flibe as the main constituent. Secondly, potential of the hydrogen fuel production as a result of the neutronic evaluations of the PACER fusion blanket integrated with Fe-Cl thermochemical cycle have been performed. In these calculations, tritium breeding (TBR), energy multiplication factor (M), thermal power ratio (1 - 𝜓), total thermal power (P_hpf) and mass flow rate of hydrogen (ṁ_H2) have been computed. As a results, the amount of the hydrogen production (ṁ_H2) have been obtained in the range of 232.24x10⁶ kg/year and 345.79 x10⁶ kg/year for the all mole-fractions of heavy metal salts using in the blanket.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.1204-1212
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• 2024

To accurately calculate the heating distribution of the fast reactor, a neutron-photon library in MATXS format named Knight-B7.1-1968n × 94γ was processed based on the ENDF/B-VII.1 library for ultrafine groups. The neutron cross-section processing code MGGC2.0 was used to generate few-group neutron cross sections in ISOTXS format. Additionally, the self-developed photon cross-section processing code NGAMMA was utilized to generate photon libraries for neutron-photon coupled heating calculations, including photo-atom cross sections for the ISOTXS format, prompt photon production cross sections, and kinetic energy release in materials (KERMA) factors for neutrons and photons, and the self-shielding effect from the capture and fission cross sections of neutron to photon have been taken into account when the photon source generated by neutron is calculated. The interface code GSORCAL was developed to generate the photon source distribution and interface with the DIF3D code to calculate the neutron-photon coupling heating distribution of the fast reactor core. The neutron-photon coupled heating calculation route was verified using the ZPPR-9 benchmark and the RBEC-M benchmark, and the results of the coupled heating calculations were analyzed in comparison with those obtained from the Monte Carlo code MCNP. The calculations show that the library was accurately processed, and the results of the fast reactor neutron-photon coupled heating calculations agree well with those obtained from MCNP.

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.77-84
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• 2021

원자력시설 SPRA 방법으로서 기기 사이 부분 종속 관계를 정확하게 고려하기 위하여 샘플링기반접근법이 개발된 바 있다. 그러나 이는 샘플링 기반 방법이므로 정확한 지진 리스크 산정을 위하여 많은 수의 샘플을 추출해야 하는 단점이 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기존 방법을 개선하기 위한 효과적인 방법을 제안한다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법의 주요한 특징은 다음과 같다. 기존 샘플링방법인 몬테카를로샘플링(MCS) 방법을 대신하여 다차원에서 효과적인 샘플링이 가능한 라틴하이퍼큐브샘플링(LHS) 방법을 샘플링기반 SPRA에 도입한다. 또한, 기존 지진세기 세분화 정도를 최종 지진 리스크 결과와 연계하여 결정한다. 제안된 방법이 결합된 샘플링기반 SPRA 접근법을 실제 원전 예제에 적용한 결과, 제안된 방법이 기존의 방법과 비교하여 결과 정확도에 있어서 거의 비슷하나 총 샘플 추출수 기준에서 효율성을 약 2배 가량 높이 것을 확인하였다. 또한, 샘플링 개수가 적은 영역에서 LHS 기반 방법이 MCS 기반 방법보다는 해의 정확도를 높이는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.217-224
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• 2024

본 논문에서는 신뢰성 기반 최적설계(RBDO)에서 성능함수의 비선형성을 고려한 효율적인 차원감소법(DRM)을 제안한다. 차원감소법은 적분직교점과 가중치를 사용하여 1차 신뢰도법(FORM) 보다 더 정확하게 신뢰도를 평가하는 반면 성능함수를 추가로 해석해야하기 때문에 적분직교점의 개수가 증가하면 효율성이 저해된다. 본 논문에서는 신뢰성 기반 최적설계에서 성능함수의 비선형도를 평가하고, 비선형도에 따라 적분직교점의 수를 결정하는 기준을 제안한다. 이를 통해 신뢰성 기반 최적설계가 진행될 때 반복마다 적분직교점의 수를 조절하여 차원감소법의 정확도는 유지하면서 계산의 효율성은 개선하는 방안을 제안한다. 성능함수의 비선형도 평가는 최대가능목표점(MPTP) 탐색에 사용한 벡터 사이의 각도를 통해 이루어지며, 수치 테스트를 통해 비선형도에 따른 적절한 적분직교점의 수를 도출하였다. 2차원 수치예제를 통해 개발된 방법이 차원감소법이나 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션(MCS)의 정확도는 유지하면서 효율성이 향상된다는 것을 확인하였다.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.613-619
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• 2005

Indigenous Yakutian cattle' adaptation to the hardest subarctic conditions makes them a valuable genetic resource for cattle breeding in the Siberian area. Since early last century, crossbreeding between native Yakutian cattle and imported Simmental and Kholmogory breeds has been widely adopted. In this study, variations at 22 polymorphic microsatellite loci in 5 populations of Yakutian, Kholmogory, Simmental, Yakutian-Kholmogory and Yakutian-Simmental cattle were analysed to estimate the genetic contribution of Yakutian cattle to the two hybrid populations. Three statistical approaches were used: the weighted least-squares (WLS) method which considers all allele frequencies; a recently developed implementation of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method called likelihood-based estimation of admixture (LEA); and a model-based Bayesian admixture analysis method (STRUCTURE). At population-level admixture analyses, the estimate based on the LEA was consistent with that obtained by the WLS method. Both methods showed that the genetic contribution of the indigenous Yakutian cattle in Yakutian-Kholmogory was small (9.6% by the LEA and 14.2% by the WLS method). In the Yakutian-Simmental population, the genetic contribution of the indigenous Yakutian cattle was considerably higher (62.8% by the LEA and 56.9% by the WLS method). Individual-level admixture analyses using STRUCTURE proved to be more informative than the multidimensional scaling analysis (MDSA) based on individual-based genetic distances. Of the 9 Yakutian-Simmental animals studied, 8 showed admixed origin, whereas of the 14 studied Yakutian-Kholmogory animals only 2 showed Yakutian ancestry (>5%). The mean posterior distributions of individual admixture coefficient (q) varied greatly among the samples in both hybrid populations. This study revealed a minor existing contribution of the Yakutian cattle in the Yakutian-Kholmogory hybrid population, but in the Yakutian-Simmental hybrid population, a major genetic contribution of the Yakutian cattle was seen. The results reflect the different crossbreeding patterns used in the development of the two hybrid populations. Additionally, molecular evidence for differences among individual admixture proportions was seen in both hybrid populations, resulting from the stochastic process in crossing over generations.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.105-115
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• 2008

환경부가 2003년 이후 생산자 책임 재활용 제도를 시행함에 있어 각 기업의 처리 대상 재활용 실적(양)을 측정하는 것이 중요한 문제가 되었다. 이때 각 기업의 처리 적의 중요한 변수가 비 대상품목의 혼입비율이고 이를 매년 기업 단위로 12회 이상 조사해 오고 있다. 하지만 혼입 비율을 조사함에 있어 조사자의 안전성, 악취, 정확한 비대상품 식별의 어려움 등등 여러 가지문제가 발생함에 따라 적은 조사 회수로도 정확한 혼입비율을 측정할 수 있는 방법에 대한 현장 조사자들의 요구가 있어 왔다. 이에 본 논문은 최근 통계학 분야에서 활발하게 연구되어 지고 있는 Judgement Post-stratification(이후 JPS)라는 특별한 표본조사 방법을 적용해 볼 것을 제안한다. 본 논문에서는 JPS 방법의 효율성을 모의실험을 통하여 현재 사용되고 있는 Simple Random Sampling (이후 SRS)방법과 비교, 표본수가 같은 경우 그 우수성을 이야기하였고, 이를 실제 2004년 환경자원공사에서 수행한 실제 조사 자료에 적용하여 JPS를 이용한 방법이 기존의 방법을 적은 조사회수로도 충분히 대체 할 수 있음을 보였다.