• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.36 no.6
• /
• pp.601-618
• /
• 2024

The joint probability distribution of uncertain geomechanical parameters of geotechnical strata is a crucial aspect in constructing the reliability functional function for roof structures. However, due to the limited number of on-site exploration and test data samples, it is challenging to conduct a scientifically reliable analysis of roof geotechnical strata. This study proposes a Copula method based on small sample exploration and test data to construct the intensity characteristics of roof geotechnical strata. Firstly, the theory of multidimensional copula is systematically introduced, especially the construction of four-dimensional Gaussian copula. Secondly, data from measurements of 176 groups of geomechanical parameters of roof geotechnical strata in 31 coal mines in China are collected. The goodness of fit and simulation error of the four-dimensional Gaussian Copula constructed using the Pearson method, Kendall method, and Spearman methods are analyzed. Finally, the fitting effects of positive and negative correlation coefficients under different copula functions are discussed respectively. The results demonstrate that the established multidimensional Gaussian Copula joint distribution model can scientifically represent the uncertainty of geomechanical parameters in roof geotechnical strata. It provides an important theoretical basis for the study of reliability functional functions for roof structures. Different construction methods for multidimensional Gaussian Copula yield varying simulation effects. The Kendall method exhibits the best fit in constructing correlations of geotechnical parameters. For the bivariate Copula fitting ability of uncertain parameters in roof geotechnical strata, when the correlation is strong, Gaussian Copula demonstrates the best fit, and other Copula functions also show remarkable fitting ability in the region of fixed correlation parameters. The research results can offer valuable reference for the stability analysis of roof geotechnical engineering.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
• /
• v.12 no.6
• /
• pp.129-139
• /
• 2008

Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.39 no.1
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2024

Geotechnical parameter estimation is critical to the design, performance, safety, and cost and schedule management in Tunnel Boring Machine projects. Since these parameters vary within a certain range, relying on mean values for evaluation introduces significant risks to the project. Due to the non-homogeneous characteristics of geological formation, data may not exhibit a normal distribution and the presence of outliers might be deceptive. Therefore, the use of reliable analyses and simulation models is inevitable in the course of the data evaluation process. Advanced modeling techniques enable comprehensive analysis of the project data and allowing to model the uncertainty in geotechnical parameters. This study involves using Monte Carlo Simulation method to predict probabilistic distributions of field data, and therefore, establish a basis for designs and in turn to minimize project risks. In the study, 166 sets of geotechnical data Obtained from 35 boreholes including Standard Penetration Test, Limit Pressure, Liquid Limit, and Plastic Limit values, which are mostly utilized parameters in estimating project requirements, were used to estimate the geotechnical data distribution of the study field. In this context, firstly, the data was subjected to multi-parameter linear regression and variance analysis. Then, the obtained equations were implemented into a Monte Carlo Simulation, and probabilistic distributions of the geotechnical data of the field were simulated and corresponding to the 90% probability range, along with the minimum and maximum values at the 5% probability levels presented. Accordingly, while the average SPT N30 value is 42.86, but the highest occurrence rate is 50.81. For Net Limit Pressure, the average field data is 17.07 kg/cm², with the maximum occurrence between 9.6 kg/cm² and 13.7 kg/cm². Similarly, the average Plastic Limit value is 22.32, while the most probable value is 20.6. The average Liquid Limit value is 56.73, with the highest probability at 54.48, as indicated in the statistical data distribution. Understanding the percentage distribution of data likely to be encountered in the project allows for accurate forecasting of both high and low probability scenarios, offering a significant advantage, particularly in ordering TBM requirements.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
• /
• v.61 no.5
• /
• pp.359-369
• /
• 2024

Data-driven model for estimating fuel oil consumption in seaways is suggested using the model test results and operation data. The data-driven model requires the forecasted wind speed, direction, and the desired ship speed as inputs to predict the engine speed, power, and fuel oil consumption. The structure of the data-driven model is based on the deterministic model of added power of a similar vessel of which model test results in the calm water and head seas are accessible. For a given wind speed, the wind resistance and added resistance in irregular waves presented by Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum are computed to be applied to the propulsion performance prediction. The deterministic model takes a cubic approximation between the wind speed and engine speed. The model is tuned by actual operation data in seaways with various wind direction groups. The shaft power and fuel oil consumption estimation are added to the model to be validated with the operation data. The prediction model is validated with the operation data to confirm that the estimation of the engine speed is the most significant uncertainty source.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.41 no.5
• /
• pp.478-489
• /
• 2020

This study presents an analysis of infrasonic signals from two accidental explosions in Gwangyang city, Jeonnam Province, Korea, on December 24, 2019, recorded at 12 infrasound stations located 151-435 km away. Infrasound propagation refracted at an altitude of ~40 km owing to higher stratospheric wind in the NNW direction, resulting in favorable detection at stations in that direction. However, tropospheric phases were observed at stations located in the NE and E directions from the explosion site because of the strong west wind jet formed at ~10 km. The transmission losses on the propagation path were calculated using the effective sound velocity structure and parabolic equation modeling. Based on the losses, the observed signal amplitudes were corrected, and overpressures were estimated at the reference distance. From the overpressures, the source energy was evaluated through the overpressure-explosive charge relationship. The two explosions were found to have energies equivalent to 14 and 65 kg TNT, respectively. At the first explosion, a flying fragment forced by an explosive shock wave was observed in the air. The energy causing the flying fragment was estimated to be equivalent to 49 kg or less of TNT, obtained from the relationship between the fragment motion and overpressure. Our infrasound propagation modeling is available to constrain the source energy for remote explosions. To enhance the confidence in energy estimations, further studies are required to reflect the uncertainty of the atmospheric structure models on the estimations and to verify the relationships by various ground truth explosions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.54 no.2
• /
• pp.105-119
• /
• 2021

An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.37 no.5
• /
• pp.47-63
• /
• 2021

Recently, the demand for three-dimensional (3D) underground maps from the perspective of digital twins and the demand for linkage utilization are increasing. However, the vastness of national geotechnical survey data and the uncertainty in applying geostatistical techniques pose challenges in modeling underground regional geotechnical characteristics. In this study, an optimal learning model based on multi-layer perceptron (MLP) was constructed for 3D subsurface lithological and geotechnical classification in Seoul, South Korea. First, the geotechnical layer and 3D spatial coordinates of each borehole dataset in the Seoul area were constructed as a geotechnical database according to a standardized format, and data pre-processing such as correction and normalization of missing values for machine learning was performed. An optimal fitting model was designed through hyperparameter optimization of the MLP model and model performance evaluation, such as precision and accuracy tests. Then, a 3D grid network locally assigning geotechnical layer classification was constructed by applying an MLP-based bet-fitting model for each unit lattice. The constructed 3D geotechnical layer map was evaluated by comparing the results of a geostatistical interpolation technique and the topsoil properties of the geological map.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.48 no.1
• /
• pp.34-48
• /
• 2024

As global supply chain risks proliferate unpredictably, the high interdependence of port and logistics industry intensifies the risk burden. This study conducted fundamental research to explore diverse safety issues in domestic ports. Utilizing news article data about Busan Port, we employed LDA topic modeling and time-series linear regression to understand key safety trends. Over the past 30 years, Busan Port faced nine major safety issues-maritime safety, import cargo inspection, labor strikes, and natural disasters emerged cyclically. Major port safety issues in Busan Port are primarily characterized by an unpredictable nature, falling under socio-environmental and natural phenomena types, indicating a significant impact of global uncertainty. Therefore, systematic policies need to be formulated based on identified port safety issues to enhance port safety in Busan Port. Additionally, there is a need to strengthen the resilience of port safety for unpredictable risk situations. In conclusion, advanced research activities are necessary to promote port safety enhancement in response to dynamically changing social conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
• /
• v.30
• /
• pp.261-274
• /
• 1996

In the present age dominate by both cer-taingty of 1% and uncertainty of 99% 'Fuzzy thinking' of Bart Kosko that is the way to solve the problems by the scientific way through a worldview of Buddhism or Taoism greatly prevails around the world over 'Lateral greatly prevails around the world over 'Lateral thinking' and the authenticity or the right and-wrong of the uncertainty which is the thinking way to find the answer of the problems of illogical way of Edward de Beno against the western vertical thinking were Concurrently fashion designers over the world also adopt the oriental elements. But there exist differences of thoughts between the orient and the occident. And they have dif-ferent thinking way of aestheticism and references of the value on the beauty. Not only beauty but the view through the mind as intuitional thought in which not only the rec-ognition of sense but also the rationalism and the naturalness play key role. The aesthetic sense in the orient contains both the truth and virtue. 2) The beauty of the mean It's from the thought of neutralization of Confucius. The mean or moderation state which in harmony with ethical virtue and aes-thetic beauty is the ideal and is the ultimate. Therefore the thought of Confucian is the creativity in which the balance and the har-mony is most important. Fashion design is also one of the representation of the mean because the spirit of the designer is harmonized for-mlessly with the object of the model of the fashion design. 2) The beauty of skillfulness It indicates the Taoism of Lao-tzu and Chuangtzu. It takes a super-artistic declar-ation that human can feel and recognize the color of colorlessness the sound of sound-lessness and the taste of tastelessness. The thought of arts affected by Taoism is 'ad-vanced age' called the beauty of skillfulness. The view of arts of lao-tzu takes the beauty of cosmos and the nature as a standard. Es-pecially the beauty of inactivity is recognized by the linkage between the beauty and the ugliness. And these things appear in fashion design as a design element such as humor or exaggeration. 3) The beauty of non-dualism It is thought of Buddhism that all evil passions of worry occur form the opposition in dualism. Finally this thought leads to that everything is consistent and truth is only one from the point of view that virtue and vice has on linkage that is 'no virtues no vices' and 'one with two, two, with one, one is not two' A big tendency like this became the root forma-tion of the thought of the oriental arts. 3. Characteristics of the oriental aesthetic sense on the present fashion design 1) The formation of the fashion design on the oriental elements In the picture-incantation which was a representation of an era when the thought of 'cosmic dual forces' dominated the basic polygons of 'a circle square triangle' means both 'one two three' and 'the negative positive mean' of cosmic elements. From this point of view the was of planner cutting in the Orient is dif-ferent from that of the Occidental which is in three-dimensional. The planner polygon type of the cut-pieces comes to have the meaning of the three-dimension when they consist of a suit that has the combination of each cut-piece. This shows the consistency with the principle of cosmos creation of Taoism that one is two two is three and three is every-thing. 2) The coloring and the symbolic represen-tation of the fashion design on the orien-tal elements The sense on the colors in the Orient from the thought of 'the cosmic dual forces and the five elements' is not the experi-enced from the knowledge but contains the consideration of philosophy Five-primary-color representing compass directions Blue(East) Red(South) Yellow(Center) White (West) and Black (North) is called ' the posi-tive' for this five-primary-color secondary-color which comes from the compound of the primary colors is called 'the negative' The thought of 'the cosmic dual forces and the five elements' is also an theory containing the natural order of the cos-mos and this shows the perceptional differ-ence that they are not conceptual but to be recognized and fell directly. A thought of Buddhism which is 'Colors are colorlessness and Clolorlessness are color's proves that. 3) The pattern and symbolic representation of the fashion design on the oriental elements The pattern as a visual style is a figure of symbolic representation which adopt the mental and physical world of human and are the compo-sition of artistic revelation of the human nature and the religous thought of incantation. Es-pecially the symbolic representation of the oriental thought of Confusion. Buddhism and Taoism There are patterns such as plants aminals the oriental four gods and geometry. From the above it's the time toward the 21'th century when the world is constructing one global area and one historical zone. And the exotic mood of the Orient represented in the fashion which doesn't make the common feeling in general does not cease to develop only to express the visual modeling but also adopts the thought religion and the art which are the root of the Orientail and contains inherent willing of modeling.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.41 no.11
• /
• pp.1079-1094
• /
• 2008

This study is to evaluate the impact of varying spatial resolutions on the uncertainty of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicted streamflow, non-point source (NPS) pollution loads transport in a small agricultural watershed (1.21 $km^2$) for three cases of model input; Case A is the combination of 2 m DEM, QuickBird land use, Case B is the combination of 10 m DEM, 1/25,000 land use, and Case C is the combination of 30 m DEM, Landsat land use, soil data is used 1/25,000 for three cases respectively. The model was calibrated for 2 years (1999-2000) using daily streamflow and monthly water quality records, and verified for another 2 years (2001-2002). The average Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.59 for streamflow and RMSE were 2.08, 4.30 and 0.70 tons/yr for sediment, T-N and T-P respectively. The model was run for a small agricultural watershed with three cases of spatial input data. The hydrological results showed that output uncertainty was biggest by spatial resolution of land use. Streamflow increase the watershed average CN value of QucikBird land use was 0.4 and 1.8 higher than those of 1/25,000 and Landsat land use caused increase of streamflow. On the other hand, The NPS loadings from the model prediction showed that the sediment, T-N and T-P of QuickBird land use (Case A) showed 23.7 %, 43.3 % and 48.4 % higher value than 1/25,000 land use (Case B) and 50.6 %, 50.8 % and 56.9 % higher value than Landsat land use (Case C) respectively.