• Title/Summary/Keyword: model reanalysis

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Possibilities for Improvement in Long-term Predictions of the Operational Climate Prediction System (GloSea6) for Spring by including Atmospheric Chemistry-Aerosol Interactions over East Asia (대기화학-에어로졸 연동에 따른 기후예측시스템(GloSea6)의 동아시아 봄철 예측 성능 향상 가능성)

  • Hyunggyu Song;Daeok Youn;Johan Lee;Beomcheol Shin
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.19-36
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    • 2024
  • The global seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration for 1- and 3-month prediction products does not include complex atmospheric chemistry-aerosol physical processes (UKCA). In this study, low-resolution GloSea6 and GloSea6 coupled with UKCA (GloSea6-UKCA) were installed in a CentOS-based Linux cluster system, and preliminary prediction results for the spring of 2000 were examined. Low-resolution versions of GloSea6 and GloSea6-UKCA are highly needed to examine the effects of atmospheric chemistry-aerosol owing to the huge computational demand of the current high resolution GloSea6. The spatial distributions of the surface temperature and daily precipitation for April 2000 (obtained from the two model runs for the next 75 days, starting from March 1, 2000, 00Z) were compared with the ERA5 reanalysis data. The GloSea6-UKCA results were more similar to the ERA5 reanalysis data than the GloSea6 results. The surface air temperature and daily precipitation prediction results of GloSea6-UKCA for spring, particularly over East Asia, were improved by the inclusion of UKCA. Furthermore, compared with GloSea6, GloSea6-UKCA simulated improved temporal variations in the temperature and precipitation intensity during the model integration period that were more similar to the reanalysis data. This indicates that the coupling of atmospheric chemistry-aerosol processes in GloSea6 is crucial for improving the spring predictions over East Asia.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the North Korean Cold Current in the East Sea Reanalysis Data (동해 재분석 자료에 나타난 북한한류의 계절 및 경년변동성)

  • Kim, Young-Ho;Min, Hong-Sik
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2008
  • Analyzing the results of East Sea Regional Ocean Model using a 3-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, we investigated spatial and temporal variability of the North Korean Cold Current (NKCC) in the East Sea. The climatological monthly mean transport of the NKCC clearly shows seasonal variation of the NKCC within the range of about 0.35 Sv ($=0^6m^3/s$), which increases from its minimum (about 0.45 Sv) through December-January to March, decreases during March and May, and then increases again to the maximum (about 0.8 Sv) in August-September. The volume transport of the NKCC shows interannual variation of the NKCC with the range of about 1.0 Sv that is larger than seasonal variation. The southward current of the NKCC appears often not only in summer but in winter as well. The width of the NKCC is about 35 km near the Korean coast and its core is located under the East Korea Warm Current. The North Korean Cold Water (NKCW), characterized by low salinity and low temperature, is located both under the Tsushima Warm Water and in the western side of the maximum southward current of the NKCC that means the NKCC advects the NKCW southward along the Korean coast. It is revealed that the intermediate low salinity water, formed off the Vladivostok in winter, flows southward to the south of $37^{\circ}N$ through $2{\sim}3$ paths; one path along the Korean coast, another one along $132^{\circ}E$, and the middle path along $130^{\circ}E$. The path of the intermediate low salinity varies with years. The reanalysis fields suggest that the NKCW is advected through the paths along the Korean coast and along $130^{\circ}E$.

Reanalysis of hypocenters around the southeastern area of the Korean Peninsula (한반도 남동부의 진원위치 재분석)

  • 박정호;지헌철;강익범;연관희
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2002.03a
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 2002
  • In this study we produced 1-dimensional p wave velocity structure of the crust using 449 P arrivals of 35 stations and we analysed hypocenters of the southeastern Korean peninsula area. A initial velocity model was selected from the priori studies and 30 different initial models were generated using random number generation from it. Using the veriest program 30 different velocity structures were calculated and the result show that velocities are 5.8 - 6.4 km/sec within 6 - 16 km depth and 7 $\pm$ 0.2 km/sec within 20 - 30 km with resonable resolution. Hypocenters were relocated by using resulted 1-dimensional velocity model as a initial model. Recalculated hypocenters'depth are shallower than initial data and epicenters show a little better lineality around study area but more much earthquake information are needed fur the determination of relation between epicenter distribution and geological tectonic structures.

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Trends in the Climate Change of Surface Temperature using Structural Time Series Model (구조적 시계열 모형을 이용한 기온 자료에 대한 기후변화 추세 분석)

  • Lee, Jeong-Hyeong;Sohn, Keon-Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.199-206
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    • 2008
  • This study employs a structural time series method in order to model and estimate stochastic trend of surface temperatures of the globe, Northern Hemisphere, and Northeast Asia ($20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$, $100^{\circ}E{\sim}150^{\circ}E$). For this study the reanalysis data CRUTEM3 (CRU/Hadley Centre gridded land-surface air temperature Version 3) is used. The results show that in these three regions range from $0.268^{\circ}C$ to $0.336^{\circ}C$ in 1997, whereas these vary from $0.423^{\circ}C$ to $0.583^{\circ}C$ in 2007. The annual mean temperature over Northeast Asia has increased by $0.031^{\circ}C$ in 2007 compared to 1997. The climate change in surface temperatures over Northeast Asia is slightly higher than that over the Northern Hemisphere.

Nonparametric Bayesian methods: a gentle introduction and overview

  • MacEachern, Steven N.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.445-466
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    • 2016
  • Nonparametric Bayesian methods have seen rapid and sustained growth over the past 25 years. We present a gentle introduction to the methods, motivating the methods through the twin perspectives of consistency and false consistency. We then step through the various constructions of the Dirichlet process, outline a number of the basic properties of this process and move on to the mixture of Dirichlet processes model, including a quick discussion of the computational methods used to fit the model. We touch on the main philosophies for nonparametric Bayesian data analysis and then reanalyze a famous data set. The reanalysis illustrates the concept of admissibility through a novel perturbation of the problem and data, showing the benefit of shrinkage estimation and the much greater benefit of nonparametric Bayesian modelling. We conclude with a too-brief survey of fancier nonparametric Bayesian methods.

Calculating Sea Surface Wind by Considering Asymmetric Typhoon Wind Field (비대칭형 태풍 특성을 고려한 해상풍 산정)

  • Hye-In Kim;Wan-Hee Cho;Jong-Yoon Mun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.770-778
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    • 2023
  • Sea surface wind is an important variable for elucidating the atmospheric-ocean interactions and predicting the dangerous weather conditions caused by oceans. Accurate sea surface wind data are required for making correct predictions; however, there are limited observational datasets for oceans. Therefore, this study aimed to obtain long-period high-resolution sea surface wind data. First, the ERA5 reanalysis wind field, which can be used for a long period at a high resolution, was regridded and synthesized using the asymmetric typhoon wind field calculated via the Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model of the numerical model named ADvanced CIRCulation model. The accuracy of the asymmetric typhoon synthesized wind field was evaluated using data obtained from Korea Meteorological Administration and Japan Meteorological Administration. As a result of the evaluation, it was found that the asymmetric typhoon synthetic wind field reproduce observations relatively well, compared with ERA5 reanalysis wind field and symmetric typhoon synthetic wind field calculated by the Holland model. The sea surface wind data produced in this study are expected to be useful for obtaining storm surge data and conducting frequency analysis of storm surges and sea surface winds in the future.

A Numerical Simulation of the Interannual and Decadal Variations of the Northern Lower Stratospheric Polar Temperature (북반구 하부성층권 극기온의 경년변화와 수십년주기변화의 수치모의)

  • Choi, Wookap;Kim, Yujin;Kim, Dongjoon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2009
  • Seoul National University General Circulation Model (SNUGCM) has been run for 100 years to obtain daily temperature and meridional velocity at the Northern lower stratosphere. The model results are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The polar temperature and the eddy heat flux from the model show that the model-produced climatology has well-known cold bias and weaker planetary wave activities. The model climatology also has a lag in the seasonal evolution. The relationship between the model-produced polar temperature and the eddy heat flux is investigated with respect to the interannual and decadal time scales. The interannual variation of the polar temperature is related with both total and stationary eddy heat flux in January and March, which is in agreement with observation. The model, however, does not reproduce the relationship between the decadal variation of the polar temperature and transient eddy heat flux, which is revealed in the observed data.

Development of Oceanic General Circulation Model for Climate Change Prediction (기후변화예측을 위한 해양대순환모형의 개발)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Lee, Hyo-Shin
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 1998
  • In this study, Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) has been developed as a counterpart of Atmospheric General Circulation (AGCM) for the study of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system. The oceanic responses to given atmospheric boundary conditions have been investigated using the OGCM. In an integration carried out over 100 simulated years with climatological monthly mean data (EXP 1), most parts of the model reached a quasi-equilibrium climate reproducing many of the observed large-scale oceanic features remarkably well. Some observed narrow currents, however, such as North Equatorial Counter Current, were inevitably distorted due to the model's relatively coarse resolution. The seasonal changes in sea ice cover over the southern oceans around Antarctica were also simulated. In an experiment (EXP 2) under boundary condition of 10-year monthly data (1982-1991) from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project model properly reproduced major oceanic changes during the period, including El Ni$\tilde{n}$os of 1982-1983 and 1986-87. During the ENSO periods, the experiment showed eastward expansion of warm surface waters and a negative vertical velocity anomalies along' the equator in response to expansion of westerly current velocity anomalies as westerly wind anomalies propagated eastward. Simulated anomalous distribution and the time behavior in response to El Ni$\tilde{n}$o events is consistent with that of the observations. These experiments showed that the model has an ability to reproduce major mean and anomalous oceanic features and can be effectively used for the study of ocean-atmosphere coupling system.

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Utilizing Soft Computing Techniques in Global Approximate Optimization (전역근사최적화를 위한 소프트컴퓨팅기술의 활용)

  • 이종수;장민성;김승진;김도영
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2000.04b
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    • pp.449-457
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    • 2000
  • The paper describes the study of global approximate optimization utilizing soft computing techniques such as genetic algorithms (GA's), neural networks (NN's), and fuzzy inference systems(FIS). GA's provide the increasing probability of locating a global optimum over the entire design space associated with multimodality and nonlinearity. NN's can be used as a tool for function approximations, a rapid reanalysis model for subsequent use in design optimization. FIS facilitates to handle the quantitative design information under the case where the training data samples are not sufficiently provided or uncertain information is included in design modeling. Properties of soft computing techniques affect the quality of global approximate model. Evolutionary fuzzy modeling (EFM) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are briefly introduced for structural optimization problem in this context. The paper presents the success of EFM depends on how optimally the fuzzy membership parameters are selected and how fuzzy rules are generated.

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Permanent Magnet Optimization for Reduction of Cogging Torque of BLDC Motor using Response Surface Methodology (반응표면법을 이용한 코깅 토크 저감을 위한 BLDC 모터의 자석 최적설계)

  • Lee, Jang-Won;Shim, Ho-Kyung;Wang, Se-Myung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.202-205
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents an optimization of permanent magnet (PM) in a brushless dc (BLDC) motor using the response surface methodology (RSM). Size and angle of the PM are optimized to minimize the cogging torque, while reducing the magnitude of harmonic at a dominant frequency and maintaining the operating torque. A fitted RS model is constructed by verifying the high reliability of the total variation and the variation of estimated error. The optimized design is validated by carrying out the reanalysis and comparing to the initial model using the nonlinear transient finite element analysis.

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