• Title/Summary/Keyword: model estimation

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Priority assessment and estimation of annual power generation for potential development site of hydroelectric dam in North Korea (북한지역 수력발전댐 개발가능지점에 대한 연간가능발생전력량 분석 및 개발 우선순위 평가)

  • Kwon, Minsung;Kim, Tae-Woong;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.929-939
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    • 2018
  • In North Korea, hydropower which occupies about 63% of power generation is a major electric power source, and North Korea has many advantages in the geographical for developing hydroelectric power. In this study, Information on the basin and dam capacity for 33 potential development site of hydroelectric dam was analyzed using DEM, and potential annual power generation was estimated by applying results of long-term runoff simulation with MWSWAT model for recent 30-year. The potential annual power generation at 33 dam was estimated to be about 28% of the current hydroelectric power in North Korea. In addition, a priority of dam development in each province was assessed by estimating the scale of an industry and prospecting the population change in the future. And a priority for dam development within the province was estimated based on the dam capacity and the potential annual power generation. The priority of each province was ranked in order of Pyeongannamdo, Hamgyungnamdo, Hamgyungbukdo, Hwanghaebukdo, Pyeonganbukdo, Jagangdo, Ryanggangdo, Hwanghaenamdo, and Gangwondo. The results of this study can be used as an initial review data for advancing to hydropower development project in North Korea.

Application of Traffic Conflict Decision Criteria for Signalized Intersections Using an Individual Vehicle Tracking Technique (개별차량 추적기법을 이용한 신호교차로 교통상충 판단기준 정립 및 적용)

  • Kim, Myung-Seob;Oh, Ju-Taek;Kim, Eung-Cheol;Jung, Dong-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2008
  • Development of an accident estimation model based on accident data can be made after accident occurrences. However, the taking of historical accident data is not easy, and there have been differences between real accident data and police-reported accident data. Also, another difficult shortcoming is that historical traffic accident data better consider driver behavior or intersection characteristics. A new method needs to be developed that can predict accident occurrences for traffic safety improvement in black spots. Traffic conflict decision techniques can acquire and analyze data in time and space, requiring less data collection through investigation. However, there are shortcomings: as existing traffic conflict techniques do not operate automatically, the analyst's opinion could easily affect the study results. Also, existing methods do not consider the severity of traffic conflicts. In this study, the authors presented traffic conflict decision criteria which consider conflict severity, including opposing left turn traffic conflict and cross traffic conflict decision criteria. In order to test these criteria, the authors acquired three signalized intersection images (two intersections in Sungnam city and one intersection in Paju) and analyzed the acquired images using image processing techniques based on individual vehicle tracking technology. Within the analyzed images, level 1 conflicts occurred 343 times over three intersections. Some of these traffic conflicts resulted in level 3 conflict situations. Level 3 traffic conflicts occurred 25 times. From the study results, the authors found that traffic conflict decision techniques can be an alternative to evaluate traffic safety in black spots.

Economic Effect of Regulation in Logistics/Transport Industry (물류운송산업 규제의 경제적 효과)

  • KIM, Jungwook;WI, Suhyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.169-182
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    • 2017
  • This research reviews regulations on logistics/transport industry and attempts to quantify the effects of regulation mitigation on GDP per capita. South Korea's transport industry has been gradually expanding, however, the industrial structure is still short rooted. In 2014, average number of hours worked is 5th highest and wage margin 12th smallest out of 18 industries. Furthermore, the regulations for this industry appear to be stricter than those of other industries. OECD's logistics/transport industry regulatory index for South Korea has been decreasing for the last 40 years but still exceeds those of EU, Japan, US, and other countries. This paper provides supporting reasons for regulatory reforms by analyzing the ripple effects on real GDP. Factors such as the ratio of trade among GDP, the enrollment rate to primary school, energy usage per capita, and population are controlled in the fixed-effect model. Estimation results showed that 1 unit decrease in transport/logistics regulatory index is correlated with 8.1% increase of the real GDP per capita, that is, 10% of deregulation is expected to yield 2.16% increase in GDP per capita. Thus, it is expected that mitigating regulations on market entries, price determination, ownership structures of network industry, vertical integrations can improve the economy of South Korea.

Estimation of Watershed Parameters and Runoff Computation Using GIS (GIS를 이용한 유역매개변수의 추정 및 유출량 산정)

  • Lee, Im-Keun;Ahn, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.1 s.174
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    • pp.11-24
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    • 2007
  • There exist various difficulties in runoff analysis due to many ungauged basins in Korea and the runoff phenomena is also more and more complicated by the change of geologic characteristics due to the urbanization. So, we use GIS technique which is widely used in hydrologic field and cell runoff concept for the fast and effective runoff simulation. This study uses the observations of 6 stage stations in Wi-Cheon watershed and simulates the watershed parameters by using WMS model. We construct DEM by the grids which are consisted based on the criteria of minimum area according to land use. The cell runoff is estimated by an average weighted method using mean annual streamflow and mean maximum daily streamflow obtained from six stage stations. The runoff ratio at arbitrary site is estimated by conducting the direction analysis of streamflow and by removing sinkhole. We compare the simulated and observed runoffs and know that the simulated runoff shows the valid results. So, we could use the geographical information and cell runoff concept for more fast and effective runoff simulation studies.

Estimation of Smoking Prevalence among Adolescents in a Community by Design-based Analysis (설계기준 분석 방법에 의한 지역사회 청소년 흡연율 추정)

  • Park, Soon-Woo;Lee, Sang-Won;Park, Jung Han;Yun, Yeon-Ok;Lee, Won-Kee;Kim, Jong-Yeon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.317-324
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to estimate the unbiased smoking prevalence and its standard errors among adolescents in a large city in Korea, by design-based analysis. Methods: All the students in Daegu city were stratified by grade, gender and region, and then schools as primary sampling units (PSU) were selected by probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling. One or two classes were sampled randomly from each grade, from 5th grade in elementary schools to the 3rd grade in high schools. The students anonymously completed a standardized self-administered questionnaire from October to December 2004. The total number of respondents was 8,480 in the final analysis, excluding the third graders in the general high schools because of incomplete sampling. The sampling weight was calculated for each student after post-stratification adjustment, with adjustment being made for the missing cases. The data were analyzed with Stata 8.0 with consideration of PSU, weighting and the strata variables. Results: The smoking prevalence (%) and standard errors for male students from the fifth grade in elementary schools to the second grade in high schools were $0.93{\pm}0.47,\;1.83{\pm}0.74,\;3.16{\pm}1.00,\;5.12{\pm}1.02,\;10.86{\pm}1.13,\;15.63{\pm}2.44\;and\;17.96{\pm}2.67$, and those for the female students were $0.28{\pm}0.28,\;1.17{\pm}0.73,\;3.13{\pm}0.60,\;1.45{\pm}0.58,\;3.94{\pm}0.92,\;8.75{\pm}1.86\;and\;10.04{\pm}1.70$, sequentially. Conclusions: The smoking prevalence from this study was much higher than those from the other conventional studies conducted in Korea. The point estimates and standard errors from the design-based analysis were different from those of the model-based analysis. These findings suggest the importance of design-based analysis to estimate unbiased prevalence and standard errors in complex survey data and this method is recommended to apply to future surveys for determining the smoking prevalence for specific population.

Biomass and Net Primary Production of Quercus variabilis Natural Forest Ecosystems in Gongju, Pohang, and Yangyang Areas (공주(公州), 포항(浦港), 그리고 양양(襄陽) 지역(地域) 굴참나무 천연림(天然林) 생태계(生態系)의 물질생산(物質生産)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Gwan-Soo;Lee, Sung-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.6
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    • pp.692-698
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    • 2001
  • This study has been carried out to estimate aboveground biomass and net primary production(NPP) in an average 41-years-old Quercus variabilis stand of Gongju area, 45-years-old Quercus variabilis stand of Pohang area, and 54-years-old Quercus variabilis stand of Yangyang area. Ten sample trees were cut in each forest and soil samples were collected in July to August, 2000. Estimation for aboveground biomass and net primary production were made by the equation model $Wt=aD^b$ where Wt is oven dry weight in kg and D is DBH in cm. Total aboveground biomass was 91.31ton/ha in Gongju area, 207.6ton/ha in Pohang area, and 71.39ton/ha in Yangyang area. The aboveground biomass 207.6ton/ha in Pohang area is the highest biomass production among the amount of biomass in Quercus variabils stands reported in Korea. The proportion of each tree component to total aboveground biomass was high in order of bolewood, bolebark, branches and leaves in the three forests. Aboveground total net primary production was estimated at 7.8ton/ha in Gongju area, 11.5ton/ha in Pohang area, and 6.40ton/ha in Yangyang area. There were at least 2 times higher total aboveground biomass in Pohang area than in the Gongju and Yangyang areas because of climate difference among the study areas.

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Implementation of GIS-based Application Program for Circuity and Accessibility Analysis in Road Network Graph (도로망 그래프의 우회도와 접근도 분석을 위한 GIS 응용 프로그램 개발)

  • Lee, Kiwon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.84-93
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    • 2004
  • Recently, domain-specific demands with respect to practical applications and analysis scheme using spatial thematic information are increasing. Accordingly, in this study, GIS-based application program is implemented to perform spatial analysis in transportation geography with base road layer data. Using this program, quantitative estimation of circuity and accessibility, which can be extracted from nodes composed of the graph-typed network structure, in a arbitrary analysis zone or administrative boundary zone is possible. Circuity is a concept to represent the difference extent between actual nodes and fully connected nodes in the analysis zone. While, accessibility can be used to find out extent of accessibility or connectivity between all nodes contained in the analysis zone, judging from inter-connecting status of the whole nodes. In put data of this program, which was implemented in AVX executable extension using AvenueTM of ArcView, is not transportation database information based on transportation data model, but layer data, directly obtaining from digital map sets. It is thought that computation of circuity and accessibility can be used as kinds of spatial analysis functions for GIS applications in the transportation field.

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Estimation of Surplus Solar Energy in Greenhouse Based on Region (지역별 온실내의 잉여 태양에너지 산정)

  • Yoon, Yong-Cheol;Im, Jae-Un;Kim, Hyeon-Tae;Kim, Young-Joo;Suh, Won-Myung
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.135-141
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    • 2011
  • This research was conducted to provide basic data of surplus heat for designing solar heat-storage systems. The surplus heat is defined as the heat exhausted by forced ventilations from the greenhouses to control the greenhouse temperature within setting limits. Various simulations were performed to compare the differences of thermal behaviors among greenhouse types as well as among several domestic areas by using pseudo-TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) data manipulated based both on the weather data supplied from Korean Meteorological Administration and the TMY data supplied from The Korean Solar Energy Society. Additional analyses were carried out to examine the required heating energy together with some others such as the energy balances in greenhouses to be considered. The results of those researches are summarized as follows. Regional surplus solar heats for the nine regions with 4-type were analyzed. The results showed that the ratio of surplus solar energy compared to heating energy was the highest in Jeju (about 212.0~228.0%) for each greenhouse type. And followed by Busan, Kwangju, Jinju, Daegu, Daejeon, Jeonju, Suwon and Daekwanryung. And irrespective of greenhouse types, surplus solar energy alone could cover up nearly all of the required supplemental heating energy except for a few areas.

Estimation of Farm-Scale and Environmental Effects for On-Farm Test Records (농장 검정돈의 규모 및 환경요인의 효과 추정)

  • Jo, Hwan;Kim, Byeong-Woo;Sun, Du-Won;Kim, Hyo-Sun;Park, Jae-Chan;Kim, Jae-Hoon;Park, Jong-Won;Lee, Jung-Gyu
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate the effects of breed, sex, Farm-Scale and environment on average daily gain, age at 90kg, backfat thickness, eye muscle area and lean percent of pig. The total number of pig used in this study was 30,525 head consisted of 5,902 Landrace, 18,022 Yorkshire, and 6,601 Duroc on 2004 to 2008. The covariance used in the model to adjust age at the final test. The average daily gain, age at 90kg, and lean percent were significantly superior in medium Farm-Scale. However Backfat thickness and Eye muscle Area were significantly superior in small Farm-Scale. In conclusion this study suggest that breed, sex, test year, test season, Farm-Scale and environment may affect to average daily gain, age at 90kg, backfat thickness, eye muscle area and lean percent. The study about the Farm-Scale has to do continually more than now, and this study will be contributed to development of the pig industry.

Ionosphere Modeling and Estimation Using Regional GPS Data (지역적인 GPS 관측 데이터를 이용한 이온층 모델링 및 추정)

  • 황유라;박관동;박필호;임형철;조정호
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.277-284
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    • 2003
  • We present a GPS-derived regional ionosphere model, which estimates Total Electron Content (TEC) in a rectangular grid on the spherical shell over Korea. After dividing longitude and latitude over Korea with 1$^{\circ}$$\times$1$^{\circ}$ spatial resolution, the TEC at the vertex of the grid was estimated by the Kalman filter. The GPS data received from nine nationwide GPS stations, operated by Korea Astronomy Observatory (KAO), were used for this study. To reduce inherent noises, the pseudorange data were phase-leveled by a linear combination of pseudoranges and carrier phases. The solar-geomagnetic reference frame, which is less variable to the ionosphere movement due to the Sun and the geomagnetic field than an Earth-fixed frame, was used. During a quiet time of solar activity, the KAO's regional ionosphere map indicated 30-45 Total Electron Content Unit at the peak of the diurnal variation. In comparison with the Global ionosphere Map of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe, RMS differences were at the level of 4-5 TECU for five days.