• Title/Summary/Keyword: model errors

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Extratropical Prediction Skill of KMA GDAPS in January 2019 (기상청 전지구 예측시스템에서의 2019년 1월 북반구 중고위도 지역 예측성 검증)

  • Hwang, Jaeyoung;Cho, Hyeong-Oh;Lim, Yuna;Son, Seok-Woo;Kim, Eun-Jung;Lim, Jeong-Ock;Boo, Kyung-On
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2020
  • The Northern Hemisphere extratropical prediction skill of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) is examined for January 2019. The real-time prediction skill, evaluated with mean squared skill score (MSSS) of 30-90°N geopotential height field at 500 hPa (Z500), is ~8 days in the troposphere. The MSSS of Z500 considerably decreases after 3 days mainly due to the increasing eddy errors. The eddy errors are largely explained by the eddy-phased errors with minor contribution of amplitude errors. In particular, planetary-scale eddy errors are considered as a main reason of rapidly increasing errors. It turns out that such errors are associated with the blocking highs over North Pacific (NP) and Euro-Atlantic (EA) regions. The model overestimates the blocking highs over NP and EA regions in time, showing dependence of blocking predictability on blocking initializations. This result suggests that the extratropical prediction skill could be improved by better representing blocking in the model.

Verification of STL using the Triangle Based Geometric Modeler (삼각형기반 형상모델러를 이용한 STL의 검증)

  • 채희창
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 1997
  • The verification of the STL file is essential to build the confident parts using a RP machine, because the STL file obtained from the CAD software has many errors-the orientation of triangle does not coincide with adjacent triangles or some triangles are omitted, overlpped and so forth. Especially, the STL file translated from the surface model has more errors than those translated from the solid model. In this study, all possible errors were classified with the most general from and the causes of errors were analyzed to verify and correct errors. Using the triangle based non-manifold geometric modeling, these errors were corrected. Especially, this study took the notice of the problem about the intersected triangles and non-manifold properties overlooked in the previous studies. But this study has a penalty on computing time of $O(n^2)$.

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Small-Sample Inference in the Errors-in-Variables Model (소표본 errors-in-vairalbes 모형에서의 통계 추론)

  • 소병수
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 1997
  • We consider the semiparametric linear errors-in-variables model: yi=(${\alpha}+{\beta}ui+{\varepsilon}i$, xi=ui+${\varepsilon}i$ i=1, …, n where (xi, yi) stands for an observation vector, (ui) denotes a set of incidental nuisance parameters, (${\alpha}$ , ${\beta}$) is a vector of regression parameters and (${\varepsilon}i$, ${\delta}i$) are mutually uncorrelated measurement errors with zero mean and finite variances but otherwise unknown distributions. On the basis of a simple small-sample low-noise a, pp.oximation, we propose a new method of comparing the mean squared errors(MSE) of the various competing estimators of the true regression parameters ((${\alpha}$ , ${\beta}$). Then we show that a class of estimators including the classical least squares estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator are consistent and first-order efficient within the class of all regular consistent estimators irrespective of type of measurement errors.

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A study on Use of a Spreadsheet (Excel) (스프레드시트 사용에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dae-Yong;Park, Kynng-Ah
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.37-52
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    • 2012
  • A spreadsheet is a office automation software which has been widely used in almost all areas in business. A spreadsheet is used for calculation, data analysis, model building and so on. As a result, spreadsheet is a very important tool for generating knowlege in a firm. Errors in a spreadsheet model can cause a serious financial damage in a corporation. However in Korea few researches for reducing errors have been performed. Neither serious efforts to reduce errors have been executed by corporations. In this research we provided summarized the results from a survey for spreadsheet usage, summarized researches on errors in spreadsheet up to now, and suggested a rules and structured development method for reducing errors in a spreadsheet. Errors in spreadsheets are prevalent. To solve this serious problem, we need much more attention on this problem in research area. Corporations must put more efforts on setting policies and rules. And also we need the government's concern and support.

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Intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems Using the Asymmetric costs of Errors in Data Mining (데이터 마이닝의 비대칭 오류비용을 이용한 지능형 침입탐지시스템 개발)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Jin-Wan
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.211-224
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    • 2006
  • This study investigates the application of data mining techniques such as artificial neural networks, rough sets, and induction teaming to the intrusion detection systems. To maximize the effectiveness of data mining for intrusion detection systems, we introduced the asymmetric costs with false positive errors and false negative errors. And we present a method for intrusion detection systems to utilize the asymmetric costs of errors in data mining. The results of our empirical experiment show our intrusion detection model provides high accuracy in intrusion detection. In addition the approach using the asymmetric costs of errors in rough sets and neural networks is effective according to the change of threshold value. We found the threshold has most important role of intrusion detection model for decreasing the costs, which result from false negative errors.

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A CAD Model Healing System with Rule-based Expert System (전문가시스템을 이용한 CAD 모델 수정 시스템)

  • Han Soon-Hung;Cheon Sang-Uk;Yang Jeong-Sam
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.30 no.3 s.246
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    • pp.219-230
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    • 2006
  • Digital CAD models are one of the most important assets the manufacturer holds. The trend toward concurrent engineering and outsourcing in the distributed development and manufacturing environment has elevated the importance of high quality CAD model and its efficient exchange. But designers have spent a great deal of their time repairing CAD model errors. Most of those poor quality models may be due to designer errors caused by poor or incorrect CAD data generation practices. In this paper, we propose a rule-based approach for healing CAD model errors. The proposed approach focuses on the design history data representation from a commercial CAD model, and the procedural method for building knowledge base to heal CAD model. Through the use of rule-based approach, a CAD model healing system can be implemented, and experiments are carried out on automobile part models.

The study on target tracking filter using interacting multiple model for tracking maneuvering target (기동표적 추적을 위한 상호작용다수모델 추적필터에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seung-Woo
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2007
  • Fire Control System(FCS) errors can be classified as hardware errors and software errors, and one of the software errors is from target tracking filter which estimates target's location, velocity, acceleration, and so on. It affects function of ballistic calculation equipment significantly. For gun to form predicted hitting point accurately and enhance hitting rate, we need status information of target's future location. Target tracking filter algorithms consist of Single Singer Model, Fixed Gain filter algorithm, IMM, PBIMM and so on. This paper will design IMM tracking filer, which is going to be! applied to domestic warship. Target tracking filter using CV model, Song model and CRT model for IMM tracking filter is made, and tracking ability is analyzed through Monte-Carlo simulation.

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Estimation of a Volumetric Error of a Machine Tool Considering the Moving Direction of a Machine Tool (방향성을 고려한 공작기계 입체오차의 평가)

  • 안경기;조동우
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2000.05a
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    • pp.676-680
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, an extended volumetric error model considering backlash in a three-axis machine tool was proposed and utilized for calculating the volumetric error of the machine tool at any position in three-dimensional workspace. Backlashes are interrelated; i.e. the angular backlash affects the straightness errors which then affect the calculated squareness errors. Therefore, a new concept was introduced to define the backlash of squareness errors to incorporate the backlash of squareness error into the volumetric error, and the characteristics of the backlash of squareness error were investigated. The effects of backlash errors were assessed, by experiments, fur 21 geometric errors of a machine tool. The backlash error was shown to be one of the systematic errors of a machine tool. Based on this volumetric error model, a computer-aided volumetric error analysis system was developed for a three-axis machine tool in this paper. Then the volumetric error at an arbitrary position can be obtained, and displayed in a three-dimensional graphic form.

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Inter-Process Correlation Model based Hybrid Framework for Fault Diagnosis in Wireless Sensor Networks

  • Zafar, Amna;Akbar, Ali Hammad;Akram, Beenish Ayesha
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.536-564
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    • 2019
  • Soft faults are inherent in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) due to external and internal errors. The failure of processes in a protocol stack are caused by errors on various layers. In this work, impact of errors and channel misbehavior on process execution is investigated to provide an error classification mechanism. Considering implementation of WSN protocol stack, inter-process correlations of stacked and peer layer processes are modeled. The proposed model is realized through local and global decision trees for fault diagnosis. A hybrid framework is proposed to implement local decision tree on sensor nodes and global decision tree on diagnostic cluster head. Local decision tree is employed to diagnose critical failures due to errors in stacked processes at node level. Global decision tree, diagnoses critical failures due to errors in peer layer processes at network level. The proposed model has been analyzed using fault tree analysis. The framework implementation has been done in Castalia. Simulation results validate the inter-process correlation model-based fault diagnosis. The hybrid framework distributes processing load on sensor nodes and diagnostic cluster head in a decentralized way, reducing communication overhead.

Spatio-temporal dependent errors of radar rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation

  • Ko, Dasang;Park, Taewoong;Lee, Taesam;Lee, Dongryul
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.164-164
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    • 2016
  • Radar rainfall estimates have been widely used in calculating rainfall amount approximately and predicting flood risks. The radar rainfall estimates have a number of error sources such as beam blockage and ground clutter hinder their applications to hydrological flood forecasting. Moreover, it has been reported in paper that those errors are inter-correlated spatially and temporally. Therefore, in the current study, we tested influence about spatio-temporal errors in radar rainfall estimates. Spatio-temporal errors were simulated through a stochastic simulation model, called Multivariate Autoregressive (MAR). For runoff simulation, the Nam River basin in South Korea was used with the distributed rainfall-runoff model, Vflo. The results indicated that spatio-temporal dependent errors caused much higher variations in peak discharge than spatial dependent errors. To further investigate the effect of the magnitude of time correlation among radar errors, different magnitudes of temporal correlations were employed during the rainfall-runoff simulation. The results indicated that strong correlation caused a higher variation in peak discharge. This concluded that the effects on reducing temporal and spatial correlation must be taken in addition to correcting the biases in radar rainfall estimates. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant from a Strategic Research Project (Development of Flood Warning and Snowfall Estimation Platform Using Hydrological Radars), which was funded by the Korea Institute of Construction Technology.

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