• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.1146-1153
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• 2022

As the population is aging, accidents involving elderly people are also increasing (2014:11,667 persons; 2018: 11,797 persons). In the case of the elderly population, falling accidents are the primary direct or indirect causes of death; in particular, they face an elevated risk of staircase falls. This study proposes a method of evaluating the safety of staircases using Building Information Modeling (BIM)-based virtual simulation. By making a virtual user with the behavioral characteristics of the elderly respond to a staircase in a BIM model, its safety performance can be evaluated. The evaluation criteria were derived from regulations, elements, and characteristics relevant to the safety of staircases. To validate the proposed method, safety evaluation tests were simulated on actual staircases. The evaluation result of the test simulation shows the safety scores of 1.97 points for the elderly user and 2.95 points for the average male adult user against a required safety score of a minimum of 2 points. That is, safety is relative to users as the safety of the same staircase can be different depending upon the different behavioral characteristics of users. The study suggests that the risk of staircase-related fall accidents to the elderly can be reduced by improving staircase designs through the proposed method.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.455-464
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• 2024

Seismic movements have varying effects on structures based on characteristics of local site. During an earthquake, weak soils are susceptible to damage due to amplified wave amplitudes. Soil-structure interaction issue has garnered increased attention in Türkiye, after devastating earthquakes in Kocaeli Gölcük (1999), Izmir (2020), Kahramanmaraş Pazarcık and Elbistan (2023). Consequently, liquefaction potential has been investigated in detail for different regions of Türkiye, mainly with available field test results. Çankırı, a city located close to North Anatolian Fault, is mainly built on alluvium, which is prone to liquefaction. However, no study on liquefaction hazard has been conducted thus far. In this study, groundwater level map, SPT map, and liquefaction risk map have been generated using Geographical Information System (GIS) for the Buğday Pazarı District of Çankırı province. Site investigations studies previously performed for 47 parcels (76 boreholes) were used within the scope of this study. The liquefaction assessment was conducted using Seed and Idriss's (1971) simplified method and the visualization of areas susceptible to liquefaction risk has been accomplished. The results of this study have been compared with the City Council's precautionary map which is currently in use. As a result of this study, it is recommended that minimum depth of boreholes in the region should be at least 30m and adequate number of laboratory tests particularly in liquefiable areas should be performed. Another important recommendation for the region is that detailed investigation should be performed by local authorities since findings of this study differ from currently used precautionary map.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.25-34
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• 1999

The Steering and Sailing Rules of International Regulation for Preventing Collisions at Sea now in use direct actions to avoid collision when two power-driven vessels are meeting on reciprocal or nearly reciprocal courses so as to involve risk of collision. But these rules do not refer to the minimum relative distances and safety relative distances between two vessels when they should take such actions.In this paper the ship's collision avoiding actions being analyzed from a viewpoint of ship motions, the mathematical formulas to calculate such relative distances necessary for taking actions to avoid collision were worked out. The values of maneuvering indices being figured out through experiments of 20 actual ships of small, medium, large and mammoth size and applied to calculating formulas, the minimum relative distances and safety relative distances were calculated. The main results were as follows. 1. It was confirmed that the criterion elements for collision avoiding actions in head-on situation of two vessels shall be the minimum relative distances and safety relative distances between them. 2. On the assumption that two vessels same in size and condition were approaching each other in head-on situation, the minimum relative distance of small vessel(GT : 160~650tons) was found to be about 4.7 times her own length, and those of medium (GT:2,300~4,500tons),large(GT:15,000~62,000tons) and mommoth (GT:91,000~194,000tons) vessels were found to be about 5.2 times, about 5.2 times and about 6.1 times their own lengths respectively. 3. On the assumption that two vessels same in size and condition were approaching each other in head-on situation, the safe relative distance of small vessel (GT : 160~650tons) was found to be about 6.8 times her own length, and those of medium (GT : 2,300~4,500tons), large (GT: 15,000~62,000tons) and mammoth (GT : 91,000~194,000tons) vessels were found to be about 9.0 times, about 6.3 times, and about 8.0 times their own lengths respectively. 4. It is considered to be helpful for the safety of ship handling that the sufficient safe relative distances for every vessels shall be more than about 12~14 times which are 2 times minimum relative distance, their own length on above assumption.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.31-61
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to calculate the economic value of transport demand forecasting risks in the road PPP project. Under the assumption that volatility of the road PPP project value occurs only in regard with uncertainty of traffic volume forecasting, this study calculates the economic value of the traffic forecasting risks in the case of the road PPP project. To that end, forecasted traffic volume is assumed to be a stochastic variable and to follow the Geometric Brownian motion as time passes. In particular, this study attempts to differentiate itself from existing studies that simply use an arbitrary assumption by presenting the application of different traffic volume growth volatility and the rates before and after the ramp-up period. Analysis of the case projects reveals that the risk premium related to traffic volume forecast of the project turns out as 7.39~8.30%, without considering option value-such as minimum revenue guarantee-while the project value volatility caused by transport demand forecasting risks is 17.11%. As the discount rate grows higher, the project value volatility tends to decrease and volatility in project value is always suggested to be larger than that in transport volume influenced by leverage effect due to fixed expenditure. The market value of transport demand forecasting risk-calculated using the project value volatility and risk premium-is analyzed to be between 0.42~0.50, implying that a 1% increase or decrease in the transport amount volatility would lead to a 0.42~0.50% increase or decrease in risk premium of the project.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.14
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• pp.5993-5999
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• 2015

Background: Molecular testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most objective and reproducible of all cervical cancer screening tests and also less demanding in terms of training and quality assurance. However, there is an impending need for cost effective molecular HPV testing methods with sampling ease, easy storage measures and minimum turn around times suitable for a low resource setting. Objective : Our aim was to evaluate the feasibility of using a fast transfer analysis (FTA) mini elute cartridge for cervical sampling to identify high risk HPV by real time PCR and to compare molecular HPV testing and Pap cytology testing to predict histologically confirmed cervical precancer (CIN 2+ lesions) in a cervical cancer prevention program. Materials and Methods: This was conducted as a pilot study (n=200) on women sampled using FTA mini elute cartridges, genotyped by two different real time PCR assays, detecting 13 high risk HPV (HR HPV) species, including HPV16 along with its physical DNA status. Results obtained from each of the tests were compared and analysed using suitable statistical tests. Results: With FTA mini elute cartridge samples HR HPV positivity was seen in 48/200 (24%). Of these, presence of HPV 16 DNA was observed in 28/48 (58.3%) women. High risk HPV was positive in 20% (37/185) of women with benign cytology and 73.3% (11/15) of women with abnormal cytology findings. A very significant correlation (${\chi}^2=22.090$ ; p=0.000) was observed between cytology and HR HPV findings showing an increasing trend of HR HPV prevalence in 50% (1/2) of LSIL, 75% (3/4) of HSIL and 100% (3/3) of SCC. Of the CIN 2+ lesions identified by histopathology, 88.9% (8/9) had HR HPV. A significant association (${\chi}^2=11.223$ ; p=0.001) of HR HPV and histopathologically confirmed CIN 2+ lesions was found. Sensitivity of the two tests were comparable but specificity of Pap testing was better (90.7% vs 70.4%) to predict histopathologically diagnosed cervical precancers. Conclusions: The current study explored the feasibility of using a FTA mini elute cartridge for cervical sampling for the first time in India as a part of a community based cervical cancer prevention program. We suggest that FTA based sampling is suitable and feasible for real time based HPV testing. Molecular HR HPV testing can be more sensitive and useful to identify high risk women requiring Pap testing which is more specific to detect histologically confirmed cervical precancer.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.5183-5188
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• 2012

Colorectal cancer remains one of the most widespread malignancies in the world. However, there is a lack of comprehensive studies considering colorectal cancer risk factors among Russian populations, particularly in Siberia. The aim of this investigation was to determine the impact of various lifestyle, dietary, family, and socioeconomical factors on colorectal cancer risk in South-East Siberia. We recruited 185 Russian colorectal cancer cases and 210 gender-, age-, and ethnicity-matched asymptomatic controls with no history of any malignant tumor, using a specially designed questionnaire to obtain relevant information. After the statistical analysis, we defined several significant factors affecting colorectal cancer risk. Among these were smoking (OR=2.13, 95%CI=1.4-3.24, P=0.0004), being overweight (BMI between 25-30, OR=2.45, 95%CI=1.49-4.03, P=0.0004), alcohol drinking (OR=8.73, 95%CI=5.49-13.87, P<0.0001), beer drinking (OR=9.24, 95%CI=5.14-16.61, P<0.0001), consumption of hard liquor (OR=9.37, 95%CI=5.92-14.82, P<0.0001), excessive red meat consumption (P<0.0001), excessive intake of red meat products (P<0.0001), excessive intake of dairy products (P<0.0001), excessive sour cream and cheese consumption (P<0.0001 and 0.0002, respectively), spicy food consumption (OR=2.87, 95%CI=1.9-4.33, P<0.0001), family history of gastrointestinal malignant tumors (OR=3.99, 95%CI=2.09-7.59, P<0.0001), and income exceeding twice the subsistence minimum (OR=5.34, 95%CI=3.35-8.53, P<0.0001). Certain factors, such as high concentration of salt in the food and precancerous colonic lesions, demonstrated borderline significance (OR=3.45, 95%CI=1.68-7.1, P=0.0008, and OR=5.25, 95%CI=1.94-14.22, P=0.001, respectively). Some factors were established as protective, like consumption of rye bread and both rye and wheat bread (OR=0.32, 95%CI=0.21-0.5, P<0,0001, and OR=0.07, 95%CI=0.02-0.21, P<0.0001, respectively), and also low concentration of salt in the food, although this was of borderline significance (OR=0.43, 95%CI=0.26-0.69, P=0.0006). ABO and Rhesus blood antigens were not associated with increased colorectal cancer risk. These results should be definitely applied for elaboration of programs of colorectal cancer prevention in Russia, particularly in Siberia.

• Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.413-421
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• 2015

Objective : The purpose of this study was to investigate biomechanical changes of the lower limb including dynamic stability with changes in illumination (300Lx, 150Lx, and 5Lx) and slope (level and $15^{\circ}$ downhill) as risk factors for elderly falls. Method : Fifteen elderly females were selected for this study. Seven infrared cameras (Proreflex MCU 240: Qualisys, Sweden) and an instrumented treadmill (Bertec, USA) surrounded by illumination regulators and lights to change the levels of illumination were used to collect the data. A One-Way ANOVA with repeated measures using SPSS 12.0 was used to analyze statistical differences by the changes in illumination and slope. Statistical significance was set at ${\alpha}=.05$. Results : No differences in the joint movement of the lower limbs were found with changes in illumination (p>.05). The maximum plantar flexion movement of the ankle joints appeared to be greater at 5Lx compared to 300Lx during slope gait (p<.05). Additionally, maximum extension movement of the hip joints appeared to be greater at 5Lx and 150Lx compared to 300Lx during slope gait (p<.05). The maximum COM-COP angular velocity (direction to medial side of the body) of dynamic stability appeared to be smaller at 150Lx and 300Lx compared to 5Lx during level gait (p<.05). The minimum COM-COP angular velocity (direction to lateral side to the body) of dynamic stability appeared smaller at 150Lx compared to 5Lx during level gait (p<.05). Conclusion : In conclusion, elderly people use a stabilization strategy that reduces walk speed and dynamic stability as darkness increases. Therefore, the changes in illumination during gait induce the changes in gait mechanics which may increase the levels of biomechanical risk in elderly falls.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.17-26
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• 2014

Background: Despite children's unique characteristics that distinguish them from adults, relatively few attempts have been made to measure exposure factors for characterization of children's exposure to hazardous chemicals in child-specific products (CSP). This study was conducted to establish the child-specific exposure factors for exposure and risk assessment of hazardous substances in CSP. Methods: We investigated the exposure factors (e.g., time use of child-products, time and frequency of object-to-body contact, time and frequency of object-to-mouth contact) influencing children's exposure to CSP (e.g., toys, playmats, oil pastels, etc.) in 650 children through a parent-completed questionnaire using a web-based survey. Participants were recruited in five age groups, <1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-6, and 6-12 years of age. Results: The child-specific exposure factors were presented as the mean, median, $95^{th}$ percentile, minimum, and maximum values. Time activity for play mats was the longest among CSP and infants spent more time on them than did elder age groups (189.3-224.7 min/day for <1-2 years vs. 91.2 min/day for 6-12 years). It is apparent that time and frequency of toy block- and plastic toy-to-mouth contact significantly decreased as a function of age. When the variation of CSP use patterns was compared by gender, the only variable that was statistically different between genders was time activity in child-products exposure space. Conclusion: We believe the five child-specific exposure factors suggested in the present study will be valuable for reducing uncertainty in the estimation of chemical exposure during risk assessment of CSP and furthermore, in the appropriate regulations to protect children's health.

• Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.43-48
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• 2010

Animal disease surveillance system, defined as the continuous investigation of a given population to detect the occurrence of disease or infection for control purposes, has been key roles to assess the health status of an animal population and, more recently, in international trade of animal and animal products with regard to risk assessment. Especially, for a system aiming to determine whether or not a disease is present in a population sensitivity of the system should be maintained high enough not to miss an infected animal. Therefore, when planning the implementation of surveillance system a number of factors that affecting surveillance sensitivity should be taken into account. Of these parameters sample size is of important, and different approaches are used to calculate sample size, usually depending on the objective of surveillance systems. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of the current national serological surveillance programs for four selected bovine diseases assuming a specified sampling plan, to examine factors affecting the probability of detection, and to provide sample sizes required for achieving surveillance goal of detecting at least an infection in a given population. Our results showed that, for example, detecting low level of prevalence (0.2% for bovine tuberculosis) requires selection of all animals per typical Korean cattle farm (n = 17), and thus risk-based target surveillance for high risk groups can be an alternative strategy to increase sensitivity while not increasing overall sampling efforts. The minimum sample size required for detecting at least one positive animal was sharply increased as the disease prevalence is low. More importantly, high reliability of prevalence estimation was expected with increased sampling fraction even when zero-infected animal was identified. The effect of sample size is also discussed in terms of the maximum prevalence when zero-infected animals were identified and on the probability of failure to detect an infection. We suggest that for many serological surveillance systems, diagnostic performance of the testing method, sample size, prevalence, population size, and statistical confidence need to be considered to correctly interpret results of the system.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.107-112
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• 2003

Probabilistic exposure assessment has been recognized as an important tool in microbial risk assessment, because of obtained the desired results to characterize of variability and uncertainty associated with the microbial hazards. In addition, it will be provided much more actuality information than the point-estimate approaches. In this study, we present methodology using mathematical probability distribution in exposure assessment and estimating of contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes in meat and meat products as a case study. The result of estimation contaminatin level was mean ($50^{th}$ percentile) -4.08 Log CFU/g minimum ($5^{th}$ percentile) -4.88 Log CFU/g, maximum ($95^{th}$ percentile) -3.56 Log CFU/g.