• Title/Summary/Keyword: mineral demand/supply

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Mineral Economic Index and Comprehensive Demand Prediction for Strategic Minerals: Copper, Zinc, Lead, and Nickel (자원경제지표와 주요 금속의 중.장기 수요 예측 -아연, 납, 구리, 니켈을 중심으로-)

  • Choi, Soen-Gyu;Kim, Chang-Seong;Ko, Eun-Mi;Kim, Seong-Yong;Jo, Ho-Young
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.345-357
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    • 2008
  • Korea has been one of the top ranked countries in the per capita and total consumption of Cu, Zn, Pb, and Ni since economic development based on manufacturing industries. The current instability of mineral demand and supply in Korea is likely to continue or exacerbate in accordance with economic growth in developing countries such as BRICs. Korea needs to increase the self-development portion of strategic mineral resources including Cu, Zn, Pb, and Ni. Our analysis of mineral demand and supply data predicts a long-run instability of supply and demand for main minerals used in the Korean manufacturing industries, and suggests a long range government policy for stable supply of core mineral resources.

Resource Demand/Supply and Price Forecasting -A Case of Nickel- (자원 수급 및 가격 예측 -니켈 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Jung, Jae-Heon
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2008
  • It is very difficult to predict future demand/supply, price for resources with acceptable accuracy using regression analysis. We try to use system dynamics to forecast the demand/supply and price for nickel. Nickel is very expensive mineral resource used for stainless production or other industrial production like battery, alloy making. Recent nickel price trend showed non-linear pattern and we anticipated the system dynamic method will catch this non-linear pattern better than the regression analysis. Our model has been calibrated for the past 6 year quarterly data (2002-2007) and tested for next 5 year quarterly data(2008-2012). The results were acceptable and showed higher accuracy than the results obtained from the regression analysis. And we ran the simulations for scenarios made by possible future changes in demand or supply related variables. This simulations implied some meaningful price change patterns.

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A Review on the Demand and Supply of Major Non-Ferrous Metals and their Recycling of Scraps during 2014-2018 in Korea (국내 범용 비철금속의 2014-2018 년간 수요 공급과 스크랩 리싸이클링 현황 조사)

  • Park, Hyungkyu;Kang, Jungshin;Lee, Taehyuk;Lee, Jinyoung;Kim, Youngmin
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.68-76
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    • 2019
  • It is very necessary for the metal recycling industries and the researchers to understand the current status of demand and supply of non-ferrous metals and their scraps. Domestic demand and supply of non-ferrous metals and their scraps have been surveyed and reported on the journal of the Korean Institute of Resources Recycling since ten years before. However, it was confined to six major non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and magnesium because there are so many kind of non-ferrous metals. In this article also, demand and supply of these non-ferrous metals in addition tin during recent five years (2014 ~ 2018) in Korean markets were reviewed, and their recycling ratio of scraps were briefly estimated. The statistical data were mainly cited from the data issued by Korea Customs Service (KCS) and Korea Non-Ferrous Metal Association, and some fragmental published review articles from magazines and other technical reports.

A System Dynamics Model for Basic Material Price and Fare Analysis and Forecasting (시스템 시뮬레이션을 통한 원자재 가격 및 운송 운임 모델)

  • Jung, Jae-Heon
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.61-76
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    • 2009
  • We try to use system dynamics to forecast the demand/supply and price, also transportation fare for iron ore. Iron ore is very important mineral resource for industrial production. The structure for this system dynamics shows non-linear pattern and we anticipated the system dynamic method will catch this non-linear reality better than the regression analysis. Our model is calibrated and tested for the past 6 year monthly data (2003-2008) and used for next 6 year monthly data(2008-2013) forecasting. The test results show that our system dynamics approach fits the real data with higher accuracy than the regression one. And we have run the simulations for scenarios made by possible future changes in demand or supply and fare related variables. This simulations imply some meaningful price and fare change patterns.

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The Changing Patterns of Demand-Supply and Role of Mineral Resources in Economic Growth during Industrialization of the Republic of Korea (한국공업화과정(韓國工業化過程)에서의 광물자원(鑛物資源)의 수급구조변화(需給構造變化)와 경제성장(經濟成長)에 있어서의 역할(役割))

  • Yun, Suckew
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.65-92
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    • 1985
  • A total of 12 mineral commodities significant in domestic output, economy and/or strategy of the Republic of Korea are chosen to examine the structural changes in production and demand-supply of these minerals during the last two decades of her industrialization. These include iron and manganese ores as the raw materials for iron and steel making, copper, zinc and tungsten ores among other non-ferrous metallic minerals, limestone (cement), kaolin, talc, pyrophyllite and graphite among other non-metallic minerals, and anthracite coal as the only domestic source of fossil energy. These are reviewed historically in time-series based on the statistical data which are tabulated and graphed in terms of domestic output, export, import, apparent demand-supply, its increasing rate, and self-sufficiency rate of each commodity. The increasing rates of demand-supply (IRDS) of some more important commodities are compared with those of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and Economic Growth Rate (EGR) to evaluate how the IRDS contributed to the GDP and EGR. The major results revealed are as follows: Among the 12 commodities, the domestic output of 8 commodities appeared to have grown with steady upward trends: they are ores of lead, zinc and tungsten, limestone (cement), kaolin, talc, pyrophyllite and anthracite coal. Two commodities, ores of iron and copper, continued with unchanging or slightly declining trends and varied fluctuations, in spite of their cardinal importance to the heavy industry and strategy of Korea. The remaining two, graphite and manganese ore, have gradualy declined in domestic output in which the former has still enough resource potential but the latter has not and virtually ceased its domestic output. Trade patterns for mineral commodities in the Republic of Korea during the last two decades have changed greatly, being marked by a shift from mineral-exporting to mineral importing, mainly because of increasing consumption of mineral raw materials for industrialization rather than beceuse of decreasing output of domestic mineral commodities in quantity. In terms of trade patterns, the 12 commodities concerned in this study can be classified into the following four groups. The 1st group - ores of lead and tungsten have only been exported without imports. The 2nd group - amorphous graphite, and pyrophyllite have mainly been exported but partly been imported. The 3rd group - kaolin, talc and crystalline graphite have equally been exported and imported, but quantity of imports have rapidly been increased with time. The 4th group - ores of iron, manganese and zinc have shifted from exports to imports during the industrialization, particularly owing to the initiation of iron and steel making by the Pohang Iron and Steel Company in the middle 1970' s and the new establishment of the Onsan Zinc Refinery in the late 1970' s. All of the 12 commodities under considerations were far above 100% in self-sufficiency rate before or in the early 1960' s. Recently, however, most of them have been declined to below 100% except for those of limestone (cement) and pyrophyllite. It is particularly serious to identify that the self-sufficiency rates of the three important metallic minerals, iron, copper and manganese ores in 1982 appeared to be 5.1%, 0.5%, and 0.01%, respectively. The average self-sufficiency rate of the total domestic minerals produced in 1982 was 14.4% (in value) for that year. Mining industry appeared to be extremely high in its intermediate demand rate whereas its intermediate input rate to be quite low indicating that mineral raw materials have been exerted strong forward linkage effects upon the other industries rather than backward linkage effects. In comparing the curves of increasing rates of demand-supply of several major minerals - iron ore, manganese ore, copper ore, limestone (cement), kaolin, and anthracite coal - with those of Gross Domestic Production and Economic Growth Rate drawn on every graph, it is clearly shown that the curves of increasing rates of demand-supply comprise around 6 to 7 periods of cycles which roughly harmonious with those of the curves of GDP and EGR, except for the curve of anthracite coal of which the configuration seems to have resulted from the (artificial) government's mineral policy rather than from economic free market mechanism. The harmonic feature of these curves well suggests that the increasing rates of demand-supply of major minerals have been significantly contributed to the GDP and EGR. In addition, the wider amplitudes of the iron, manganese and copper curves than those of the limestone (cement) and kaolin curves indicate that the contribution of the former, metallic commodities, has been greater than that of the latter, non-metallic commodities.

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Worldwide Trend and Korean Recent Status in the Supply-Demand for Resources -The Current Situation of Recycling Technology for Waste Resources in Korea(1)- (자원수급(資源需給)의 세계적(世界的)인 추세(趨勢)와 우리나라의 동향(動向) -국내자원(國內資源)의 유효이용(有效利用)을 위한 처리(處理) 및 회수기술(回收技術) 동향조사(動向調査)(1)-)

  • Oh, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Mi-Sung;Cho, Sung-Baek
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.15 no.3 s.71
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 2006
  • Sustainable supply of minerals and energy is global problem. Metals and energy consumption in the world has increased with economic growth. Currently more than 40 metals are systematically extracted and used in many different fields in civilized society. Recycling and reuse have become very important because recycling contributes to supplying the materials and protecting the environment of society. It is not realistic that all waste materials are capable of being recycled, because recycling metals have fundamentally been competing with primary production. In this point of view, prior to discuss on current recycling technology of waste resources in Korea, world wide trend and Korean recent activity in the supply-demand far minerals and energy resources are reviewed.

GIS-based Network Analysis for the Understanding of Aggregate Resources Supply-demand and Distribution in 2018 (GIS 네트워크 분석을 이용한 2018년 골재의 수요-공급과 유통 해석)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Hong, Sei Sun
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.515-533
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    • 2021
  • Based on the supply location, demand location, and transportation network, aggregate supply-demand characteristics and aggregate distribution status were analyzed from the results of the closest distance, service areas, and location-allocation scenarios using GIS network analysis. As a result, it was found that the average transport distance of aggregates from the supplier was 6 km on average, the average range of 7 km for sand, and 10 km for gravel was found to reach the destination. In particular, the simulated service area covers about 92% in Seoul-Gyeonggi Province, 85% in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam Province, and more than 90% in Daejeon-Sejong-Chungnam Province. These results have a significant implication in quantitatively interpreting primary data on aggregate supply-demand. Furthermore, these results suggest the possibility of a wide-area quantitative analysis of aggregate supply regions necessary for establishing a basic aggregate plan. The results also evaluated by the site-allocation scenario show that aggregate supply may be possible through companies less than 200 with large-amounts quarries, which is the 700 companies currently supplying small amounts of aggregates on the country. Therefore, in terms of distribution of aggregates, a policy approach is needed to form an appropriate market for regions with high and low density of aggregate supply services, and the necessity of regional distribution and re-evaluation is suggested through an aggregate supply analysis demand across the country. Furthermore, in analyzing the supply-demand network for the aggregate market, additional research is needed to establish long-term policies for the aggregate industry and related industries.

Analysis of Structure in the Domestic Supply & Demand of the Raw Materials of Rare Metals (국내 희유금속 수급구조 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Yu Jeong;Lee, Hwa Suk
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2014
  • In this study, the domestic supply & demand of the raw materials of 35 rare metals was analyzed categorized as four types - ores, metals, compounds and scraps. Foreign trade volumes of the raw materials of rare metals have been steadily increased, furthermore, recently trade growth rate highly exceeds GDP. The raw materials of rare metals - silicon, nickel, molybdenum, manganese, etc. - for steel industry were the most big part of the raw materials of rare metals trade, while the raw materials of rare metals for electronics industry were imported relatively small volumes less than $100 million. However systematic supply & demand management on the raw materials of rare metals for electronics industry is needed since recently growth rate per year has been remarkably high over 20%. Import volumes were about three times bigger than export scale, and most of the raw materials of rare metals were traded as a metal form.

Research and Development for the Recovery of Uranium and Vanadium from Korean Black Shale Ore (국내(國內) 흑색(黑色) 점판암으로부터 우라늄 및 바나듐 회수(回收)의 연구개발(硏究開發))

  • Kim, Joon Soo
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2013
  • This general paper covers three parts of the uranium research and development. Part one covers scope of research and development of uranium ore and future prospect, supply and demand of uranium in the world market, deposit, grade and properties of Korean uranium ore and the second part covers status of previous study and supply target for yellow cake, technology of leaching, separation and preparation, procedure of the recovery of U / V from Korean black shale ore. Final part concludes the summary of the present discussion.