• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.76-83
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• 2012

Korean aviation Turbulenc Guidance (KTG) system is developed using the operational unified model (UM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and pilot reports (PIREPs) over East Asia. The KTG system comprised of twenty turbulence diagnostics that represent various turbulence potentials and have the best forecasting skills, which are combined into a single ensemble-averaged index, namely KTG, at upper-(above FL250) and mid-(below FL250) levels. It is found that the overall performance of the KTG is higher than those produced from the one single best index, and satisfies the minimum criteria (80% accuracy) that the system is operationally useful in aviation industry.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.977-985
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• 2012

Data quality and climate forecasting performance deteriorates because of long climate data contaminated by non-climatic factors such as the station relocation or new instrument replacement. For a trusted climate forecast, it is necessary to implement data quality control and test inhomogeneous data. Before the inhomogeneity test, a reference series was created by $d$ index to measure the temperature series relationship between the candidate and surrounding stations. In this study, a inhomogeneity test to each season and climatological station was performed on the daily mean temperatures, daily minimum temperatures and daily maximum temperatures. After comparing two inhomogeneity tests, the traditional and the adjusted SNHT method, we found the adjusted SNHT method was slightly superior to the traditional one.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.163-174
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• 2018

In order to assimilate MHS satellite data into the convective scale model at KMA, ATOVS data are reprocessed to utilize the original high-resolution data. And then to improve the preprocessing experiments for cloud detection were performed and optimized to convective-scale model. The experiment which is land scattering index technique added to Observational Processing System to remove contaminated data showed the best result. The analysis fields with assimilation of MHS are verified against with ECMWF analysis fields and fit to other observations including Sonde, which shows improved results on relative humidity fields at sensitive level (850-300 hPa). As the relative humidity of upper troposphere increases, the bias and RMSE of geopotential height are decreased. This improved initial field has a very positive effect on the forecast performance of the model. According to improvement of model field, the Equitable Threat Score (ETS) of precipitation prediction of $1{\sim}20mm\;hr^{-1}$ was increased and this impact was maintained for 27 hours during experiment periods.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.6
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• pp.73-79
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• 2019

Continuous and tremendous data (canopy temperature and meteorological variables) are necessary to determine Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI). This study investigated the optimal monitoring time and interval of canopy temperature and meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation and wind speed) to determine CWSIs. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) was used to quantitatively describe the accuracy of sampling method depending upon various time intervals (t=5, 10, 15, 20, 30 and 60 minutes) and CWSIs per every minute were used as a reference. The NSE coefficient of wind speed was 0.516 at the sampling time of 60 minutes, while the ones of other meteorological variables and canopy temperature were greater than 0.8. The pattern of daily CWSIs increased from 8:00 am, reached the maximum value at 12:00 pm, then decreased after 2:00 pm. The statistical analysis showed that the data collection at 11:40 am produced the closest CWSI value to the daily average of CWSI, which indicates that just one time of measurement could be representative throughout the day. Overall, the findings of this study contributes to the economical and convenient method of quantifying CWSIs and irrigation management.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.65 no.3
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• pp.57-67
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• 2023

A flash drought is a rapid-onset drought that develops over a short period of time as weather and environmental factors change rapidly, unlike general droughts, due to meteorological abnormalities. Abnormally high evapotranspiration rates and rapid declines in soil moisture increase vegetation stress. In addition, crop yields may decrease due to flash droughts during crop growth and may damage agricultural and economic ecosystems. In this study, Flash Drought Intensity Index (FDII) based on soil moisture data from Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) was used to analyze flash drought. FDII, which is calculated using soil moisture percentile, is expressed by multiplying two factors: the rate of intensification and the drought severity. FDII was developed for domestic flash drought events from 2014 to 2018. The flash drought that occurred in 2018, Chungcheongbuk-do showed the highest FDII. FDII was higher in heat wave flash drought than in precipitation deficit flash drought. The results of this study show that FDII is reliable flash drought analysis tool and can be applied to quantitatively analyze the characteristics of flash drought in South Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.141-141
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• 2022

Drought is a global phenomenon that affects almost all landscapes and causes major damages. Due to non-linear nature of contributing factors, drought occurrence and its severity is characterized as stochastic in nature. Early warning of impending drought can aid in the development of drought mitigation strategies and measures. Thus, drought forecasting is crucial in the planning and management of water resource systems. The primary objective of this study is to make improvement is existing drought forecasting techniques. Therefore, we proposed an improved version of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (MD-SARIMA) for reliable drought forecasting with three years lead time. In this study, we selected four watersheds of Han River basin in South Korea to validate the performance of MD-SARIMA model. The meteorological data from 8 rain gauge stations were collected for the period 1973-2016 and converted into watershed scale using Thiessen's polygon method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to represent the meteorological drought at seasonal (3-month) time scale. The performance of MD-SARIMA model was compared with existing models such as Seasonal Naive Bayes (SNB) model, Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model, and SARIMA model. The results showed that all the models were able to forecast drought, but the performance of MD-SARIMA was robust then other statistical models with Wilmott Index (WI) = 0.86, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.66, and Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.80 for 36 months lead time forecast. The outcomes of this study indicated that the MD-SARIMA model can be utilized for drought forecasting.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.531-548
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• 2023

We developed the Aviation Convective Index (ACI) for predicting deep convective area using the operational global Numerical Weather Prediction model of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Seasonally optimized ACI (ACI_SnOpt) was developed to consider seasonal variabilities on deep convections in Korea. Yearly optimized ACI (ACI_YrOpt) in Part 1 showed that seasonally averaged values of Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS) were decreased by 0.420% and 5.797%, respectively, due to the significant degradation in winter season. In Part 2, we developed new membership function (MF) and weight combination of input variables in the ACI algorithm, which were optimized in each season. Finally, the seasonally optimized ACI (ACI_SnOpt) showed better performance skills with the significant improvements in AUC and TSS by 0.983% and 25.641% respectively, compared with those from the ACI_YrOpt. To confirm the improvements in new algorithm, we also conducted two case studies in winter and spring with observed Convectively-Induced Turbulence (CIT) events from the aircraft data. In these cases, the ACI_SnOpt predicted a better spatial distribution and intensity of deep convection. Enhancements in the forecast fields from the ACI_YrOpt to ACI_SnOpt in the selected cases explained well the changes in overall performance skills of the probability of detection for both "yes" and "no" occurrences of deep convection during 1-yr period of the data. These results imply that the ACI forecast should be optimized seasonally to take into account the variabilities in the background conditions for deep convections in Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.77 no.2
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• pp.216-222
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• 1988

This study was conducted to investigate the effect of meteorological factors on the diameter growth and Key-year in Pinus koraiensis and Pinus densiflora trees grown in Chuncheon and Hongcheon. The results obtained were summarized as follows : 1. The diameter growth of Pinus koraiensis was better than that of Pinus densiflora grown in the same meteorological condition and site environment. 2. The influence of meteorological factors on the diameter growth of Pinus koraiensis was the highest in the descending order fog, hours of sunshine, precipitation, relative humidity, warm index, and evaporation. 3. The influence of meteorological factors on the diameter growth of Pinus densiflora was the highest in the descending order fog, hours of sunshine, relative humidity, precipitation, and warm index. But evaporation was not significant. 4. The Key-years for Pinus koraiensis and Pinus densiflora trees appeared in 1964 and 1913 when the diameter growth was influenced by the specific climate change.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.1787-1796
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• 2014

The main purpose of this study is to assess the sensitivity of meteorological drought indices in probabilistic perspective using Bayesian Network model. In other words, this study analyzed interrelationships between various drought indices and investigated the order of the incident. In this study, a Bayesian Network model was developed to evaluate meteorological drought characteristics by employing the percent of normal precipitation (PN) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with various time scales such as 30, 60, and 90 days. The sensitivity analysis was also performed for posterior probability of drought indices with various time scales. As a result, this study found out interdependent relationships among various drought indices and proposed the effective application method of SPI to drought monitoring.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.359-372
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• 2016

The time-series of Walker circulation index (WCI) in this study shows the strengthening of the Walker circulation in recent years. To further understand the large-scale features related to the WCI strengthening, a difference between the averaged meteorological variables in two time periods 1999-2013 and 1984-1998 is analyzed. The difference in 850 hPa stream flows between the two periods shows that the anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) are dominant due to the strengthening of anomalous anticyclonic circulations at the subtropical Pacific of both hemispheres. The difference between the averaged zonal atmospheric circulations over $5^oS-5^oN$ in the two periods confirms that upward flows are strengthened at the tropical western Pacific and downward flows are strengthened at the tropical central and eastern Pacific in recent years. It matches the WCI strengthening in recent years. The time-series of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency from July to September shows that a mean TC genesis frequency from 1999-2013 decreases compared to that of the time period 1984-1998. The monsoon trough in the period 1984-1998 was located in the further east direction and stronger than that in the period 1999-2013. TCs in the recent period that are generated in further west than TCs in the past period moved from the west. Thus, the TC intensity along the coasts in East Asia becomes weaker in recent period. The intensification of Walker circulation in recent years is related to the weaker TC intensity in East Asia through strengthened anomalous anticyclones at the subtropical western Pacific.