KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Sensitivity Assessment of Meteorological Drought Index using Bayesian Network

베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 기상학적 가뭄지수의 민감도 평가

  • 유지영 (전북대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김진영 (전북대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 건설환경플랜트공학과)
  • Received : 2014.07.13
  • Accepted : 2014.10.12
  • Published : 2014.12.01
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Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to assess the sensitivity of meteorological drought indices in probabilistic perspective using Bayesian Network model. In other words, this study analyzed interrelationships between various drought indices and investigated the order of the incident. In this study, a Bayesian Network model was developed to evaluate meteorological drought characteristics by employing the percent of normal precipitation (PN) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with various time scales such as 30, 60, and 90 days. The sensitivity analysis was also performed for posterior probability of drought indices with various time scales. As a result, this study found out interdependent relationships among various drought indices and proposed the effective application method of SPI to drought monitoring.

본 연구의 목적은 베이지안 네트워크 기법을 이용하여 기상학적 가뭄지수의 민감도를 확률론적으로 평가하는 것이다. 즉, 기상학적 가뭄에 관련되는 다양한 지수 간의 상호연관성을 분석하여 가뭄지수 사이의 선후관계를 파악하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 정상강우비율(PN)과 30일, 60일, 90일 지속기간 표준강수지수(SPI30, SPI60, SPI90)의 자료를 기반으로 베이지안 네트워크 모형을 개발하여 기상학적 가뭄특성을 평가하였으며, 다양한 시간단위(지속기간)에 따른 가뭄지수 간의 사후확률에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 결과적으로는 다양한 지수 간의 의존관계를 파악하였으며, 이를 활용하여 효율적인 가뭄감시를 수행할 수 있는 표준강수지수의 활용방안을 제시하였다.

Keywords

References

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