• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.268-268
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• 2023

전 지구적 급격한 기후변화로 인해 수문기상인자들의 비선형적 변동성이 발생함과 동시에 가뭄, 홍수와 같은 수재해의 발생빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이에 따라, 세계의 유수기관 (NASA, ESA 등)에서는 대기모형과 해양 모형의 결합 및 수치해석적 접근법을 활용하여 계절내-계절 (Subseasonal to seasonal; S2S) 예측치를 생산하여 제공하고 있다. 이에 따라, 본 연구에서는 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)에서 산정되는 수문기상인자 (강수량, 증발산량 및 유출량)에 대한 정확도를 평가하고자 한다. 연구지역으로는 다양한 기후대 및 토지 피복으로 구성되어 있으며, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD)와 같은 기후 현상이 빈번히 발생하는 호주지역을 대상으로 연구를 수행하였다. ECMWF S2S 자료에 대한 통계적 검증은 1) 지점 기반 관측치와 더불어 2) 물수지 모델 기반 수문 추정치 (The Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape Model; AWRA-L)와 비교하였다. 연구 결과 S2S 강우 및 증발산량 산정치의 경우 비교적 짧은 예측기간(약 2주)에서 상대적으로 높은 상관관계 (R=0.5~0.6)와 낮은 편차 (강수량 = 0.10 mm/day, 증발산량 = 0.21 mm/day)를 나타내었다. 유출량의 경우, 강우 및 증발산량에 비해 상대적으로 낮은 정확도를 나타내었으며, 예측 기간이 길어짐에 따라 불확실성이 상당히 높아지는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는, S2S 계산과정에서 강우 및 증발산량 뿐만아니라 지표 유출로 도달하기 전까지의 수문기상인자들의 불확실성이 모두 모여 유출량의 불확실성이 높아진 것으로 확인할 수 있었다. 계절적 검증에서는, 강우 및 증발산량 모두 여름철에 높은 상관관계를 나타내었지만 불확실성은 상대적으로 큰 값을 나타내었다. 자세한 분석을 위해, 공간적인 불확실성을 분석해본 결과 ECMWF S2S가 매우 습윤하거나 건조한 지역에서 수문기상인자를 예측하는데 있어 한계성이 나타난 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 토대로, 추후 S2S 예측치에 대한 보정과 더불어 미래의 수재해 발생 위험도에 대한 정보를 획득하는데 적용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Atmosphere
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.17-28
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• 2017

The sensitivity of the typhoon track and intensity simulation to physics schemes of the global model are examined for the typhoon Bolaven and Tembin cases by using the Global/Regional Integrated Model System-Global Model Program (GRIMs-GMP) with the physics package version 2.0 of the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems. Microphysics, Cloudiness, and Planetary boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations are changed and the impact of each scheme change to typhoon simulation is compared with the control simulation and observation. It is found that change of microphysics scheme from WRF Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5) to 1-class (WSM1) affects to the typhoon simulation significantly, showing the intensified typhoon activity and increased precipitation amount, while the effect of the prognostic cloudiness and PBL enhanced mixing scheme is not noticeable. It appears that WSM1 simulates relatively unstable and drier atmospheric structure than WSM5, which is induced by the latent heat change and the associated radiative effect due to not considering ice cloud. And WSM1 results the enhanced typhoon intensity and heavy rainfall simulation. It suggests that the microphysics is important to improve the capability for typhoon simulation of a global model and to increase the predictability of medium range forecast.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.46-52
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• 2005

A marine environmental information system (MEIS) useful for optimal route planning of ships running in the ocean was developed. Utilizing the simulated marine environmental data produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts based on global environmental data observed by satellites, the real-time forecast and long-term statistics of marine environments around planned and probable ship routes are provided. The MEIS consists of a land-based data acquisition and analysis system(MEIS-Center) and a onboard information display system(MEIS-Ship) for graphic description of marine information and optimal route planning of ships. Also, it uses of satellite communication system for data transfer. The marine environmental components of winds, waves, air pressures and storms are provided, in which winds are described by speed and direction and waves are expressed in terms of height, direction and period for both of wind waves and swells. The real-time information is characterized by 0.5° resolution, 10 day forecast in 6 hour interval and daily update. The statistic information of monthly average and maximum value expected for a return period is featured by 1.5° resolution and based on 15 year database. The MEIS-Ship include an editing tool for route simulation and the forecasting and statistic information on planned routes can be displayed in graph or table. The MEIS enables for navigators to design an optimal navigational route that minimizes probable risk and operational cost.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.14 no.11
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• pp.1015-1026
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• 2005

The southeastern coastal area of the Korean peninsula has a complex terrain including an irregular coastline and moderately high mountains. This implies that mesoscale circulations such as mountain-valley breeze and land-sea breeze can play an important role in wind field and ocean forcing. In this study, to improve the accuracy of complex coastal rind field(surface wind and sea surface wind), we carried out the sensitivity experiments based on PBL schemes in PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), which is being used in the operational system at Korea Meteorological Administration. Four widely used PBL parameterization schemes in sensitivity experiments were chosen: Medium-Range Forecast (MRF), High-resolution Blackadar, Eta, and Gayno-Seaman scheme. Thereafter, case(2004. 8. 26 - 8. 27) of weak-gradient flows was simulated, and the time series and the vertical profiles of the simulated wind speed and wind direction were compared with those of hourly surface observations (AWS, BUOY) and QuikSCAT data. In the simulated results, the strength of rind speed of all schemes was overestimated in complex coastal regions, while that of about four different schemes was underestimated in islands and over the sea. Sea surface wind using the Eta scheme showed the highest wind speed over the sea and its distribution was similar to the observational data. Horizontal distribution of the simulated wind direction was very similar to that of real observational data in case of all schemes. Simulated and observed vertical distribution of wind field was also similar under boundary layer(about 1 km), however the simulated wind speed was underestimated in upper layer.

• Ocean Science Journal
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.211-222
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• 2007

We compare insolation results calculated from two well-known empirical formulas (Socket and Beaudry's SB73 formula and the original Smithsonian (SMS) formula) and a radiative transfer model using input data predicted from meteorological weather-forecast models, and review the accuracy of each method. Comparison of annual mean daily irradiance values for clear-sky conditions between the two formulas shows that, relative to the SMS, the SB73 underestimates spring values by 9 W $m^{-2}$ in the northern Adriatic Sea, although overall there is a good agreement between the annual results calculated with the two formulas. We also elucidate the effect on SMS of changing the 'Sun-Earth distance factor (f)', a parameter which is commonly assumed to be constant in the oceanographic context. Results show that the mean daily solar radiation for clear-sky conditions in the northern Adriatic Sea can be reduced as much as 12 W $m^{-2}$ during summer due to a decrease in the f value. Lastly, surface irradiance values calculated from a simple radiative transfer model (GM02) for clear-sky conditions are compared to those from SB73 and SMS. Comparison with iu situ data in the northern Adriatic Sea shows that the GM02 estimate gives more realistic surface irradiance values than SMS, particularly during summer. Additionally, irradiance values calculated by GM02 using the buoy meteorological fields and ECMWF (The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) meteorological data show the suitability of the ECMWF data usage. Through tests of GM02 sensitivity to key regional meteorological factors, we explore the main factors contributing significantly to a reduction in summertime solar irradiance in the Adriatic Sea.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.85-97
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• 2018

This study evaluates the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing the present-day (1981~2005) precipitation over Far East Asia and South Korea. The WRF model is configured with 25-km horizontal resolution within the context of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) - East Asia Phase 2. The initial and lateral boundary forcing for the WRF simulation are derived from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Interim reanalysis. According to our results, WRF model shows a reasonable performance to reproduce the features of precipitation, such as seasonal climatology, annual and inter-annual variabilities, seasonal march of monsoon rainfall and extreme precipitation. In spite of such model's ability to simulate major features of precipitation, systematic biases are found in the downscaled simulation in some sub-regions and seasons. In particular, the WRF model systematically tends to overestimate (underestimate) precipitation over Far East Asia (South Korea), and relatively large biases are evident during the summer season. In terms of inter-annual variability, WRF shows an overall smaller (larger) standard deviation in the Far East Asia (South Korea) compared to observation. In addition, WRF overestimates the frequency and amount of weak precipitation, but underestimates those of heavy precipitation. Also, the number of wet days, the precipitation intensity above the 95 percentile, and consecutive wet days (consecutive dry days) are overestimated (underestimated) over eastern (western) part of South Korea. The results of this study can be used as reference data when providing information about projections of fine-scale climate change over East Asia.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.387-395
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• 2008

The impact of horizontal resolution on a regional climate model was investigated by simulating precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. As a regional climate model, the SNURCM(Seoul National University Regional Climate Model) has 21 sigma layers and includes the NCAR CLM(National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model) for land-surface model, the Grell scheme for cumulus convection, the Simple Ice scheme for explicit moisture, and the MRF(Medium-Range Forecast) scheme for PBL(Planetary Boundary Layer) processing. The SNURCM was performed with 20 km resolution for Korea and 60 km resolution for East Asia during a 20-year period (1980-1999). Although the SNURCM systematically underestimated precipitation over the Korean Peninsula, the increase of model resolution simulated more precipitation in the southern region of the Korean Peninsula, and a more accurate distribution of precipitation by reflecting the effect of topography. The increase of precipitation was produced by more detailed terrain data which has a 10 minute terrain in the 20 km resolution model compared to the 30 minute terrain in the 60 km resolution model. The increase in model resolution and more detailed terrain data played an important role in generating more precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. While the high resolution model with the same terrain data resulted in increasing of precipitation over the Korean Peninsula including the adjoining sea, the difference of the terrain data resolution only influenced the precipitation distribution of the mountainous area by increasing the amount of non-convective rain. In conclusion, the regional climate model (SNURCM) with higher resolution simulated more precipitation over the Korean Peninsula by reducing the systematic underestimation of precipitation over the Korean Peninsula.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.309-323
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• 2006

We focus on the improvement in the simulation of sea surface wind over complex coastal area located in the southeastern Korea. In this study, it was carried out sensitivity experiment based on PBL schemes and dynamic frame of MM5 and WRF. Two widely used PBL parameterization schemes were chosen : Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ). Thereafter, two cases of sea fog days with weak wind speed and typhoon days with strong wind speed were simulated and analyzed. The result of experiments indicated that wind fold of WRF model was shown more similar distribution with observational data, compared with that of MM5. Simulation of sea surface wind during sea fog days with weak wind speed and typhoon days with strong wind speed were shown similar horizontal distribution with observational data using MYJ and MRF PBL schemes of WRF model, respectively. Horizontal distribution of sea surface wind was more sensitive according to dynamic frame and PBL Schemes of model during sea fog days and typhoon days, respectively.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.156-156
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• 2016

2016년 2월 5일, 짐바브웨는 극심한 가뭄으로 인해 인구의 4분의 1이상이 식량난을 겪고 있다며 '국가 재난 사태'를 선포하였다. 한때 아프리카 곡창지대로 불리던 짐바브웨가 극심한 가뭄을 겪게 된 데에는 2015/16년 슈퍼엘니뇨의 영향이 크게 한 몫을 하였는데, 이는 남반구의 여름인 11월부터 이듬해 3월까지인 짐바브웨의 우기가 2015/16년 슈퍼엘니뇨 강도가 절정에 달했던 시기(10월에서 2월)와 겹쳐져 짐바브웨의 강수량이 슈퍼 엘니뇨의 영향을 받게 되었기 때문이다. 게다가 4월부터는 엘니뇨의 영향을 받은 우기가 끝나고 건기가 시작되기 때문에 앞으로 가뭄이 얼마나 더 악화될지 우려되는 상황이다. 짐바브웨의 기후를 살펴보면, 증발량이 강수량보다 많은 건조기후 중에서도 비교적 그 정도가 약한 기후인 반건조 지대에 속한다. 하지만 연강수량 변동에 따라서, 비가 내리는 해에는 토양 수분이 과잉되고 비가 적게 내리는 해에는 심한 물 부족 현상이 일어나게 되기 때문에, 건기가 시작되는 4월부터 짐바브웨 강수 예측은 가뭄이 얼마나 지속될지를 파악하는 데에 아주 중요한 요소가 될 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 강수 예측 결과를 중심으로 2016년 짐바브웨의 가뭄이 얼마나 지속되고, 또 가뭄의 강도는 어떻게 될지 알아보는 것에 목적을 두고, GCM을 이용하여 2016년 3월에서 10월까지 장기예측을 수행하였다. 경계 자료로는 ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts)에서 제공하는 Sea Ice자료와, NOAA OI (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Optimum Interpolation) Weekly SST자료를 사용하였고 엘니뇨의 영향을 고려하기 위해 IRI (International Research Institute)의 ENSO forecast를 참고하여 SST아노말리에 월별 가중치를 적용하였다. 초기 입력 자료로는 1월 21-30일 10일간의 ECMWF의 재분석 자료를 이용하여 총 10개 멤버의 앙상블 예측을 수행하였고, 8개월(3-10월) 기간에 대해 약 한 달간의 spin-up time을 주었다. 예측 자료를 모델 climatology와 비교하여 월 평균 강수 전망을 분석하였고, 기온과 해면기압의 월 평균자료도 추가 분석하였다. 또한 짐바브웨 지역의 강수 관측 자료와 모델 예측 자료를 이용하여 특정 도시들의 1년 누적강수를 예측 및 분석하였고, 최종적으로 이 결과를 통해 짐바브웨의 가뭄지속가능성을 살펴보았다.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.209-221
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• 2018

The characteristics of heat wave events in Seoul are analyzed using weather station data from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016. Heat waves are defined as events in the upper 10th percentile of the daily maximum temperatures. The associated synoptic weather patterns are then classified into six clusters through Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis for sea-level pressure anomalies in East Asia. Cluster 1 shows an anti-cyclonic circulation and weak troughs in southeast and west of Korea, respectively. This synoptic pattern leads to southeasterly winds that advect warm and moist air to the Korean Peninsula. Both clusters 2 and 3 are associated with southerly winds formed by an anti-cyclonic circulation over the east of Korea and cyclonic circulation over the west of Korea. Cluster 4 shows a stagnant weather pattern with weak winds and strong insolation. Clusters 5 and 6 are associated with F?hn wind resulting from an anti-cyclonic circulation in the north of the Korean Peninsula. In terms of long-term variations, event frequencies of clusters 4 and 5 show increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. However, other clusters do not show any long-term trends, indicating that the mechanisms that drive heat wave events in Seoul have remained constant over the last four decades.