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Performance Improvement on Short Volatility Strategy with Asymmetric Spillover Effect and SVM (비대칭적 전이효과와 SVM을 이용한 변동성 매도전략의 수익성 개선)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2020
  • Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

Mechanical and Operational Factors Affecting the Efficiency of Rice Polishing Machines (정미기의 능률에 미치는 기계적 요인및 작동조건에 관한 연구)

  • No, Sang-Ha
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.15-15
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    • 1976
  • In analyzing the operational characteristics of a rice whitening machine, the internal radial pressure of the machine was measured using strain gage equipment. Changes in cylinder and feed screw configurations, screen type, cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels were examined to determine their impact on the quality and quantity of milled rice and the performance of the machine. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The internal radial pressure in the whitening chamber varied with the surface condition of the grain being processed. During the first or second pass through the machine, pressure was relatively low, reached a maximum after two to three passes with combinations I and II, three to six with combination III and then began to fall. 2. The pitch of the feed screw and the size of the feed gate opening which determine the rate of entry of grain into the whitening chamber, appeared to be the most important factor aff-::cting the degree of radial pressure, quality and quantity of milled rice and the efficiency of the machine. Using a feed screw with a wide pitch (4.8cm), radial pressure was relatively high and head rice recovery ratio \vere quite low. In this case capacity and machine effic?iency were much higher than obtained when using a feed screw with a narrow pitch (2.3cm). Very significant responses in radial pressure, head rice recovery rates and machine capacity were observed with changes in cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels when using the wide pitch feed screw. 3. The characteristics of the screen which surrounds the whitening chamber had an important effect on whitening efficiency. The existence of small protuberances on the original screen resulted in significant increases in both machine capacity and efficiency but without a significant decrease in head rice recovery or development of excessive radial pressure. Further work is required to determine the effects of screen surface conditions and the shape of the cylinderical steel roller on the rate of bran removal, machine efficiency and recovery rates. The size of the slotted perforations 0:1 the screen affects total milled rice recovery. The opening size on the original screen was fabricated to accommodate the round shape of Japonica rice varieties but was not suitable for the more slender Indica type. Milling Indica varieties with this screen resulted in a reduction in total milled rice recovery. 4. An increase in cylinder speed from 380 to 820 rpm produced a positive effect on head rice recovery for all machine combinations at every level of counter-pressure used in the tests. Head rice recovery was considerably lower at 380rpm using a wide screw pitch when compared to the results obtained at speeds from 600 to 820 r.p.m. The effects of cylinder speed On radial pressure, capacity and machine efficiency showed contrasting results, depending on the width of the feed screw pitch. With a narrow feed screw pitch (2.3cm), a direct proportional relationship was observed bet?ween cylinder speed and both radial pressure and machine efficiency. In contrast, using a 4.8 centimeter pitch feed roller produced a series of inverse relationships between the above variables. Based on the results of this study it is recommended when milling Indica type long grain rice varieties that the cylinder speed of the original machine be increased from 500-600 rmp up to a minimum of 800 rpm to obtain a greater abrasive effect between the grain and the screen. The pitch of the feed screw should be also reduced to decr?ease the level of internal radial pressure and to obtain higher machine efficiency and increased quality of milled rice with increased cylinder speeds. Further study on the interaction between cylinder speed and feed screw pitch is recommended. 5. An increase in the counter pressure level produced a negative effect On the head rice recovery with an increase in radial pressure, capacity, and machine efficiency over all combinations and at every level of cylinder speed. 6. Head rice recovery rates were conditioned primarily by the pressure inside the whitening chamber. According to the empirical cha racteristics curve developed in this study, the relationships of head rice recovery ($Y_h$) and machine capacity ($Y_c$/TEX>) to internal radial pressure ($X_p$) followed an inverse quadratic function and a linear function respectively: $$Y_h^\Delta=\frac{1}{{1.4383-0.2951X_p^\ast+0.1425X_p^{\ast\ast}}^2} , (R^2=0.98)$$$$Y_c^\Delta=-305.83+374.37X_p^{\ast\ast}, (R^2=0.88)$$The correlation between capacity and power consumption per unit of brown rice expressed in the following exponential function: $$Y_c^\Delta=1.63Y_c^{-0.7786^\{\ast\ast}, (R^2=0.94)$$These relationships indicate that when radial pressure increases above a certain range (1. 6 to 2.0 kg/$cm^2$ based On the results of the experiment) head ricerecovery decrea?ses in a quadratic relation with a inear increase in capacity but without any decrease in power consump tion per unit of brown rice. On the other hand, if radial pressure is below the range shown above, power consumption increases dramatically with a lin?ear decrease in capacity but without significant increases in head rice recovery. During the operation of a given whitening machine, the optimum radial pressure range or the correct capacity range should be selected by controlling the feed rate and/or counter-pressure keeping in mind the condition of the grain, particulary the hardness. It was observed that the total number of passes is related to radial pessure level, feed rate and counter-pressure level. The higher theradial pressure the fewer num?ber of pass required but with decreased head rice recovery. In particular, when using high feed rates, the total number of passes should be increased to more than three by reducing the counter-pressure level to avoid decreaseases in head rice recovery (less than 65 percent head rice recovery on the basis of brown rice) at every cylinder speed. 7. A rapid rise in grain temperature seemed to have a close relationship with the pressure generated inside the whitening chamber and, subsequently with head rice reco?very rates. The higher the rate of increase, the lower were the resulting head rice recoveries.

Mechanical and Operational Factors Affecting the Efficiency of Rice Polishing Machines (정미기의 능률에 미치는 기계적 요인및 작동조건에 관한 연구)

  • 노상하;최재갑
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.17-48
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    • 1976
  • In analyzing the operational characteristics of a rice whitening machine, the internal radial pressure of the machine was measured using strain gage equipment. Changes in cylinder and feed screw configurations, screen type, cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels were examined to determine their impact on the quality and quantity of milled rice and the performance of the machine. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The internal radial pressure in the whitening chamber varied with the surface condition of the grain being processed. During the first or second pass through the machine, pressure was relatively low, reached a maximum after two to three passes with combinations I and II, three to six with combination III and then began to fall. 2. The pitch of the feed screw and the size of the feed gate opening which determine the rate of entry of grain into the whitening chamber, appeared to be the most important factor aff-::cting the degree of radial pressure, quality and quantity of milled rice and the efficiency of the machine. Using a feed screw with a wide pitch (4.8cm), radial pressure was relatively high and head rice recovery ratio \vere quite low. In this case capacity and machine effic\ulcorneriency were much higher than obtained when using a feed screw with a narrow pitch (2.3cm). Very significant responses in radial pressure, head rice recovery rates and machine capacity were observed with changes in cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels when using the wide pitch feed screw. 3. The characteristics of the screen which surrounds the whitening chamber had an important effect on whitening efficiency. The existence of small protuberances on the original screen resulted in significant increases in both machine capacity and efficiency but without a significant decrease in head rice recovery or development of excessive radial pressure. Further work is required to determine the effects of screen surface conditions and the shape of the cylinderical steel roller on the rate of bran removal, machine efficiency and recovery rates. The size of the slotted perforations 0:1 the screen affects total milled rice recovery. The opening size on the original screen was fabricated to accommodate the round shape of Japonica rice varieties but was not suitable for the more slender Indica type. Milling Indica varieties with this screen resulted in a reduction in total milled rice recovery. 4. An increase in cylinder speed from 380 to 820 rpm produced a positive effect on head rice recovery for all machine combinations at every level of counter-pressure used in the tests. Head rice recovery was considerably lower at 380rpm using a wide screw pitch when compared to the results obtained at speeds from 600 to 820 r.p.m. The effects of cylinder speed On radial pressure, capacity and machine efficiency showed contrasting results, depending on the width of the feed screw pitch. With a narrow feed screw pitch (2.3cm), a direct proportional relationship was observed bet\ulcornerween cylinder speed and both radial pressure and machine efficiency. In contrast, using a 4.8 centimeter pitch feed roller produced a series of inverse relationships between the above variables. Based on the results of this study it is recommended when milling Indica type long grain rice varieties that the cylinder speed of the original machine be increased from 500-600 rmp up to a minimum of 800 rpm to obtain a greater abrasive effect between the grain and the screen. The pitch of the feed screw should be also reduced to decr\ulcornerease the level of internal radial pressure and to obtain higher machine efficiency and increased quality of milled rice with increased cylinder speeds. Further study on the interaction between cylinder speed and feed screw pitch is recommended. 5. An increase in the counter pressure level produced a negative effect On the head rice recovery with an increase in radial pressure, capacity, and machine efficiency over all combinations and at every level of cylinder speed. 6. Head rice recovery rates were conditioned primarily by the pressure inside the whitening chamber. According to the empirical cha racteristics curve developed in this study, the relationships of head rice recovery ($Y_h$) and machine capacity ($Y_c$/TEX>) to internal radial pressure ($X_p$) followed an inverse quadratic function and a linear function respectively: $$Y_h^\Delta=\frac{1}{{1.4383-0.2951X_p^\ast+0.1425X_p^{\ast\ast}}^2} , (R^2=0.98)$$ $$Y_c^\Delta=-305.83+374.37X_p^{\ast\ast}, (R^2=0.88)$$ The correlation between capacity and power consumption per unit of brown rice expressed in the following exponential function: $$Y_c^\Delta=1.63Y_c^{-0.7786^\{\ast\ast}, (R^2=0.94)$$ These relationships indicate that when radial pressure increases above a certain range (1. 6 to 2.0 kg/$cm^2$ based On the results of the experiment) head ricerecovery decrea\ulcornerses in a quadratic relation with a inear increase in capacity but without any decrease in power consump tion per unit of brown rice. On the other hand, if radial pressure is below the range shown above, power consumption increases dramatically with a lin\ulcornerear decrease in capacity but without significant increases in head rice recovery. During the operation of a given whitening machine, the optimum radial pressure range or the correct capacity range should be selected by controlling the feed rate and/or counter-pressure keeping in mind the condition of the grain, particulary the hardness. It was observed that the total number of passes is related to radial pessure level, feed rate and counter-pressure level. The higher theradial pressure the fewer num\ulcornerber of pass required but with decreased head rice recovery. In particular, when using high feed rates, the total number of passes should be increased to more than three by reducing the counter-pressure level to avoid decreaseases in head rice recovery (less than 65 percent head rice recovery on the basis of brown rice) at every cylinder speed. 7. A rapid rise in grain temperature seemed to have a close relationship with the pressure generated inside the whitening chamber and, subsequently with head rice reco\ulcornervery rates. The higher the rate of increase, the lower were the resulting head rice recoveries.

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A study on Pre-and Post-surgical Patterns of Mandibular Movement and EMG in Skeletal Class III Prognathic Patients who underwent Intraoral Vertical Ramus Osteotomy (하악 전돌증 환자의 구내 하악골 상행지 골절단술전후의 하악골 운동양상 및 저작근 근전도 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Chel;Hwang, Chung-Ju;Yu, Hyung-Seog;Han, Hee-Kyung
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.283-296
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    • 1997
  • Stomatognathic system is a complex one that is composed of TMJ, neuromuscular system, teeth and connective tissue, and all its components are doing their parts to maintain their physiological relationships. Mandible, in particular, performs various functions such as mastication, speech, and deglutition, the muscular activities that determine such functions are signalled by numerous types of proprioceptors that exist in periodontal membrane, TMJ, and muscles to be controlled by complicated pathways and mechanics of peripheral and central nervous system. Orthodontic treatment, especially when accompanied by orthognathic surgery, brings dramatic changes of stornatognat is system such as intraoral proprioceptors and muscle activities and thus, changes in patterns of mandibular function result The author tried to analyze changes in patterns of mandibular movement and physiologic activities of surrounding muscles in Skeletal Class III ortlrognathic surgery patients who presently show a great increase in numbers. The purpose of this study was to draw some objective guidelines in evaluating funclierual aspects of orthognathic surgery patients. Mandibular functional analysis using Biopak was performed for skeletal Class III prognathic patients who underwent IVRO(lntraoral Vertical Ramus Osteotmy), and the following results were obtained: 1. Resting EMG was greater in pre-surgical group than the control group, and it showed gradual decrease after the surgery. Clenching EMG of masseter and anterior temporalis of pre-surgical group was smaller than those of control group, they also increased post-surgically, and significant difference was found between pre-surgical and post-surgical(6 months) groups. 2. Resting EMG of anterior ternporalis was greater than that of all the other muscles, but there was no significant difference. Clenching EMG of anterior temporalis and masseter were greater than those of the other muscles with statistical difference. In swallowing, digastric muscle showed the highest EMG with statistical significance. 3. Limited range of mandibular movement was shown in pre-surgical group. Significant increase in maximum mouth opening was observed six months post-surgically, and significant increase in protrusive movement was observed three months post-surgically.

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Effect of conservative therapy and Mandibular condylar bone change on Adolescents with osteoarthritis of TMJ (청소년 측두하악관절 골관절염의 보존적 치료효과 및 관절면의 변화 비교)

  • Jeon, Hye-Mi;Kim, Kyung-Hee;Ok, Soo-Min;Heo, Jun-Young;Jeong, Sung-Hee;Ko, Myung-Yun;Ahn, Young-Woo
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.357-366
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    • 2013
  • This study is designed to evaluate the treatment outcome of occlusal stabilizing splint and to assess follow-up study of condylar bony changes using cone beam computed tomography(CBCT) in adolescents patients (12-19 years) with TMJ osteoarthritis(OA). 167 eroded condyles in 149 subjects were chosen among the patients who presented to the Department of Oral Medicine of Pasan National University Hospital, diagnosed as TMJ osteoarthritis by clinical exam, x-ray and CBCT from 2009 to 2012. They were treated conservatively with physical therapy, medication, behavioral therapy and occlusal stabilizing splint therapy. After average 9 months, CBCT was retaken and subjective symptoms and clinical findings were investigated. Condyle bony changes were classified by unchanged, less severe and more severe. The obtained results were as follow: 1. Pain, Noise, LOM(Limitation of motion) and MCO(Maximum comfortable opening) measurement of TMJ OA patients were markedly improved after conservative treatment. 2. In the occlusal stabilizing splint therapy group, Pain and LOM were statistically significant improved than non-occlusal stabilizing splint therapy group. 3. In the acute occlusal stabilizing splint therapy group, Pain and LOM were remarkably improved. 4. In comparison of CBCT1 and CBCT2 images, the transition of bone changes to lesser severe was most commonly in joint with erosive change. 5. In the non-occlusal stabilizing splint therapy group, the transition of condylar bone changes from erosion to more severe was many than occlusal stabilizing splint therapy group.

Development of Rain Shelter for Chinese Cabbage Rainproof Cultivation (배추재배용 비가림하우스 개발)

  • Yu, In Ho;Lee, Eung Ho;Cho, Myeong Whan;Ryu, Hee Ryong;Moon, Doo Gyung
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.293-302
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    • 2014
  • This study was carried out to develop rain shelter which can make an appropriate size and environment for Chinese cabbage rainproof cultivation. Fifty three farms with chinese cabbage rainproof cultivation system have been investigated to set up width and height of rain shelter. Mostly the width of 6m was desired for rain shelter and the height of 1.6m for their eaves, so these values were chosen as the dimensions for rain shelter. After an analysis of their structural safety and installation costs by the specifications of the rafter pipe, Ø$25.4{\times}1.5t$ and 90cm have been set as the size of rafter that such size costs the least. This size is stable with $27m{\cdot}s^{-1}$ of wind velocity and 17cm of snow depth. Therefore it is difficult to apply this dimension to area with higher climate load. In order to sort out such problem, the rain shelter has been designed to avoid damage on frame by opening plastic film to the ridge. Once greenhouse band is loosen by turning the manual switch at the both sides of rain shelter and open button of controller is pushed then switch motor rises up along the guide pipe and plastic film is opened to the ridge. Chinese cabbage can be damaged by insects if rain shelter is opened completely as revealed a field. To prevent this, farmers can install an insect-proof net. Further, the greenhouse can be damaged by typhoon while growing Chinese cabbage therefore the effect of an insect-proof net on structural safety has been analyzed. And then structural safety has been analyzed through using flow-structure interaction method at the wind condition of $40m{\cdot}s^{-1}$. And it assumed that wind applied perpendicular to side of the rain shelter which was covered by insect-proof net. The results indicated that plastic film was directly affected by wind therefore high pressure occurred on the surface. But wind load on insect-proof net was smaller than on plastic film and pressure distribution was also uniform. The results of structural analysis by applying pressure data extracted from flow analysis indicated that the maximum stress occurred at the end of pipe which is the ground part and the value has been 54.6MPa. The allowable stress of pipe in the standard of structural safety must be 215 MPa or more therefore structural safety of this rain shelter is satisfied.

Water-Blooms (Green-Tide) Dynamics of Algae Alert System and Rainfall-Hydrological Effects in Daecheong Reservoir, Korea (대청호 조류경보제의 녹조현상 동태와 강우-수문학적 영향)

  • Shin, Jae-Ki;Kang, Bok-Gyoo;Hwang, Soon-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.153-175
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    • 2016
  • Daecheong Reservoir has suffered eutrophication and water-blooms by blue-green algae from initial impoundment, and algae alert system (AAS) was introduced in 1997. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of rainfall and hydrological factors in increase or decrease variability of green-tide and prolonged AAS, studied and analyzed the current situation of AAS has been operating for 19 years (1997~2015) in Daecheong Reservoir. The total issued number of AAS was 46 times, the most frequent period in August and September were 22 times (752 days) and 16 times (431 days), respectively, it accounted for 82.6%. Many number and frequency during this period were significantly associated with rainfall, various discharge and water level. Rainfall and hydrological events are associated with the rainy season of monsoon-Changma and the typhoon, it was concentrated in June~September, total rainfall in this period accounted for 69.9% of the annual rainfall. An increase in inflows was dependent on the intensity, frequency and the amount of rainfall. Accounted for 68.4% of the total annual inflow, it was a time when the most rapidly changing hydrological variability in the reservoir. The total outflow was closely related to rainfall, and compared the distinctive characteristics of hydropower generation and watergate-spillway discharge. In addition, the upreservoir zone of Daecheong Reservoir could be vulnerable to green-tide by regulating discharge of the upstream dam. The issue of AAS was strongly related to the with and without of watergate-spillway discharge. The watergate-spillway discharge had a total of 25 times, it was maximum 17 days from July to September in the year. And the opening times and each duration of the watergate were 1~4 times and the range of 3~37 days, respectively. When the watergate opened, the issue of AAS was maintained to 13 years and the movement of water bodies and green-tide was great about five times than that of non-open, had a profound effect on prolonged AAS within reservoir. In Daecheong Reservoir, Chusori (CHU) area of the So-ok Stream was still showing serious symptoms green-tide levels in the summer, but Janggye (JAN) waters of the main reservoir was pointed out that more important. AAS will be operated by an absolutely consider the rainfall and hydrological effects around the watergate-spillway discharge. The measures of green-tide will be included in the limnological studies more suited to the characteristics of the watershed and reservoir of the our country. Finally, from now on, we will prepare the systematic management and guidelines for vulnerable zone water-blooms that are the source within the reservoir before the monsoon rather than waiting for the arrival of green-tide on the operating stations of AAS.

Short-term Effect of Botulinum Toxin Injection on the Surface EMG of Masticatory Muscles and Jaw Function (교근 부위의 보툴리눔 독소 주사가 저작근의 근전도 및 악기능에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jeong-Yun;Park, Hee-Kyung;Chung, Jin-Woo
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2006
  • Botulinum toxin injection has been used in the masticatory muscle area as an effective treatment method of various movement disorders and facial contouring, but its effects on jaw function have not been evaluated. The aims of this study were to evaluate the effects of botulinum toxin type A injection into the masseter muscle on the EMG activities of masseter and anterior temporal muscles, and the limitation of jaw function. Fourteen healthy subjects were recruited. Five subjects were injected with 80 units of botulinum toxin type A(Dysport, Ipsen, Wrexham, UK) into each side of masseter muscle, and nine subjects were injected with saline into the same site as the botulinum toxin group. The surface EMG activities at maximum voluntary contraction of masseter and anterior temporal muscles were recorded before, 1 week, 2 weeks, and 3 weeks after injection. Presence of jaw functional limitations in each subject was investigated using Korean version of Jaw Functional Limitation Scale(JFLS) questionnaire. The masseter muscle EMG was gradually decreased in the botulinum toxin group comparing with that of the control group(p<0.001), but the anterior temporal muscle EMG did not show significant changes. There was significant increases in the mastication (p<0.01), and global jaw limitation(p<0.05) subscales of JFLS at 1 week after injection, but no significant changes in the other subscales including opening, and verbal and emotional expression during the recording periods. Our results suggest that botulinum toxin injection into masseter muscle can affect modest limitation in mastication function at 1 week after injection but recovered to the baseline until 3 weeks after injection. The EMG activity of masseter muscle had been gradually decreased until 3 weeks after botulinum toxin injection but the anterior temporal muscle did not show any significant changes.

Performance of Investment Strategy using Investor-specific Transaction Information and Machine Learning (투자자별 거래정보와 머신러닝을 활용한 투자전략의 성과)

  • Kim, Kyung Mock;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2021
  • Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

Research on the Legal Composition and Institutional Systems of The Dao Constitution: Focusing on The Constitution of the Republic of Korea (『도헌』의 법률적 구성과 제도적 장치 연구 - 대한민국헌법을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Young-jin
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.40
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    • pp.77-114
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the ideological background, legal composition, and separation of powers contained within the institutional devices of The Dao Constitution based on the basic principles of the legal system, which would be embodied in The Constitution of the Republic of Korea. The ideological background of The Dao Constitution is that of the religion, Daesoon Jinrihoe. In Daesoon Jinrihoe, it is held that the Supreme God, Sangje, determined that Mutual Contention, the ruling pattern of the Former World, ran contrary to His divine will and this endangered the world as nature and humans had also fallen into Mutual Contention. As an act of divine intervention, Sangje established Mutual Beneficence so that nature and humanity could follow Mutual Beneficence as a paradigm shift culminating in a Great Opening of the universe. Sangje, the agent behind the paradigm shift, revealed His divine will that humans transform into mutually beneficent humans. Therefore, The Dao Constitution was written to be a set of fundamental norms based on the 'rights and obligations of the members of Daesoon Jinrihoe' to accept and implement the will of Sangje as it applies to each member's mission. The legal composition of The Dao Constitution consists of the body and supplementary provisions. The text consists of general rules, moral rights and obligations, origins, and institutional devices. Institutional devices include the Central Council, the Institute of Propagation and Edition, the Institute of Religious Services, Works, Financial Management, and the Institute of Audit and Inspection. The legal composition of The Dao Constitution is similar to that of the Constitution. The difference is that while the Constitution applies a 'principle of maximum rights and minimum obligations,' The Dao Constitution stipulates more obligations than rights in order to complete the mission of the members. The principle of separation of powers is applied to the institutional devices in The Dao Constitution. In The Dao Constitution, the organizational form of the central headquarters has been divided into a 'before and after' scheme surrounding the death of Dojeon. The organizational form of the central headquarters prior to Dojeon's death was similar to a Constitutional Monarchy. After the death of Dojeon, the central headquarters' organizational form became similar to a parliamentary cabinet system. The separation of powers at central headquarters is divided among a legislative power (the Central Council), an executive power (the Institute of Religious Services), and a judicial power (the Institute of Audit and Inspection). The separation of powers within the functions of the central government first occurs between the Central Council and its employees, then between the Central Council and the Institute of Auditing and Inspection, and also between the Legislative Government and the Institute of Religious Services. Furthermore, the principle of a vertical separation of powers exists between the central headquarters and the local organization.