• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.12
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• pp.995-1006
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• 2016

According to 5th IPCC Climate Change Report, there is a very high likelihood that the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events will increase. In reality, flood damage has increased, and it is necessary to estimate the future probabilistic design rainfall amount that climate change is reflected. In this study, the future probabilistic design precipitation amount is estimated by analyzing trends of future annual maximum daily rainfall derived by RCP 8.5 scenarios and using the scale-invariance technique. In the first step, after reviewing the time-scale characteristics of annual maximum rainfall amounts for each duration observed from 60 sites operating in Korea Meterological Administration, the feasibility of the scale-invariance technique are examined using annual daily maximum rainfall time series simulated under the present climate condition. Then future probabilistic design rainfall amounts for several durations reflecting the effects of climate change are estimated by applying future annual maximum daily rainfall time series in the IDF curve equation derived by scale-invariance properties. It is shown that the increasing trend on the probabilistic design rainfall amount has resulted on most sites, but the decreasing trend in some regions has been projected.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.1-20
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• 2023

Holding the longest observation data from April 1904, Busan is one of the essential points to understand the climate variability of the Korean Peninsula without missing data since implementing the modern weather observation of the South Korea. Busan is featured by coastal areas and affected by various climate factors and fluctuations. This study aims to investigate climate variability and changes in climatic variables, extremes, and several weather indexes. The statistically significant change points in daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature were found in 1964 and 1965. Based on the change point detection, 117 years were divided into two periods for daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature, respectively. In the long-term temperature analysis of Busan, the increasing trend of the daily maximum temperature during the period of 1965~2021 was larger than the daily mean temperature and the daily minimum temperature. Applying Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, daily maximum temperature is largely affected by the decadal variability compared to the daily mean and minimum temperature. In addition, the trend of daily precipitation intensity from 1964~2021 shows a value of about 0.50 mm day^-1, suggesting that the rainfall intensity has increased compared to the preceding period. The results in extremes analysis demonstrate that return values of both extreme temperatures and precipitation show higher values in the latter than in the former period, indicating that the intensity of the current extreme phenomenon increases. For Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (effective humidity), increasing (decreasing) trend is significant in Busan with the second (third)-largest change among four stations.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.5B
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• pp.515-524
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• 2008

An estimation of reliable probability precipitation is one of the most important processes for reasonable hydrologic structure design. A probability precipitation has been calculated by frequency analysis using annual maximum rainfall series on the each duration among the observed rainfall data. Annual maximum rainfall series have abstracted on hourly rainfall data or daily rainfall data. So, there is necessary to proper conversion factor between the fixed and sliding durations. Therefore, in this study, conversion factors on the each duration between fixed and sliding durations have calculated using minutely data compared to hourly and daily data of 37 stations observed by Meteorological Administration in Korea. Also, regression equations were computed by regression analysis of conversion factors on the each duration. Consequently, conversion factors were used basis data for calculations of stable probability precipitation.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.293-299
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• 2011

The quantity of a discharge load can change with changes in rainfall in the area with a combined sewer system (CSS). To evaluate the implementation appropriately in the management of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), the effects of rainfall changes should be considered in the estimation of the discharge load. The rainfall condition for the estimation of the discharge load in a certain year should be standardized to the same rainfall condition as that of the reference year. However, the calculation process is very complicated with its potential limitations. This study investigated and developed relatively simple methods for estimating the discharge load. Load conversion method (LCM) is designed to convert the discharge load under the current rainfall condition into that of the reference rainfall conditions. Simple rainfall data method (SRDM) is to simplify the estimation process of the discharge load by the simple conversion of rainfall data. These methods were applied to calculate the discharge load and examine the estimation results. From the results of this study the application of these methods may be useful for estimating the discharge load in the TMDL process.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.390-390
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• 2019

Application of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to the hydrological time series would be an innovative way to identify extreme rainfall events in a series. Even though the optimum number of hidden states can be identify based on maximizing the log-likelihood or minimizing Bayesian information criterion. However, occasionally value for the log-likelihood keep increasing with the state which gives false identification of the optimum hidden state. Therefore, this study attempts to identify optimum number of hidden states for Colombo station, Sri Lanka as fundamental approach to identify frequency and percentage of extreme rainfall events for the station. Colombo station consisted of daily rainfall values between 1961 and 2015. The representative station is located at the wet zone of Sri Lanka where the major rainfall season falls on May to September. Therefore, HMM was ran for the season of May to September between 1961 and 2015. Results showed more or less similar log-likelihood which could be identified as maximum for states between 4 to 7. Therefore, measure of central tendency (i.e. mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance and auto-correlation) for observed and simulated daily rainfall series was carried to each state to identify optimum state which could give statistically compatible results. Further, the method was applied for the second major rainfall season (i.e. October to February) for the same station as a comparison.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.572-579
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• 2011

We have examined the runoff characteristics of nonpoint source (NPS) in fields. Two monitoring sites were equipped with an automatic velocity meter and water sampler. Monitoring was conducted at fields 1 and field 2 during the rainfall event. Ten rainfall-runoff events were monitored and analyzed during the study period. The results show that runoff occurred if daily rainfall and intensity were higher than 40 mm and 1.6 mm/hr except a few extreme rainfall events with very high intensity. Runoff of field 1 was approximately twice of that of field 2. Event mean concentrations (EMC) and pollution load of analyzed water quality indices were also higher in field 2 than in field 1. Especially, TN load from field 2 was $75.4 mg/m^2$ and was about 5 times higher than that from field 1. Analysis of Pearson correlation coefficient of water quality parameter indicates that besides of TN all items in fields 1 have tight relationship respectively (p < 0.01). But those of fields 2 have a significant (p < 0.05). Estimating units loading of NPS, we suggested that variable such as soil texture, rainfall amount and intensity and slope were needed to be considered from agricultural landuses. The results of this study can be used as a basic data in the development and implementation of total maximum daily loads (TMDL) in Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.16-16
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• 2011

Statistics of extreme rainfall play a vital role in engineering practice from the perspective of mitigation and protection of infrastructure and human life from flooding. While flood frequency assessments, based on river flood flow data are preferred, the analysis of rainfall data is often more convenient due to the finer spatial nature of rainfall recording networks, often with longer records, and potentially more easily transferable from site to site. The rainfall frequency analysis as a design tool has developed over the years in New Zealand from Seelye's daily rainfall frequency maps in 1947 to Thompson's web based tool in 2010. This paper will present a history of the development of New Zealand rainfall frequency analysis methods, and the details of the latest method, so that comparisons may in future be made with the development of Korean methods. One of the main findings in the development of methods was new knowledge on the distribution of New Zealand rainfall extremes. The High Intensity Rainfall Design System (HIRDS.V3) method (Thompson, 2011) is based upon a regional rainfall frequency analysis with the following assumptions: $\bullet$ An "index flood" rainfall regional frequency method, using the median annual maximum rainfall as the indexing variable. $\bullet$ A regional dimensionless growth curve based on the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV), and using goodness of fit test for the GEV, Gumbel (EV1), and Generalised Logistic (GLO) distributions. $\bullet$ Mapping of median annual maximum rainfall and parameters of the regional growth curves, using thin-plate smoothing splines, a $2km\times2km$ grid, L moments statistics, 10 durations from 10 minutes to 72 hours, and a maximum Average Recurrence Interval of 100 years.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.53-62
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• 1982

An effort of preliminary type has been made to develope a practical method for the waterway area determination of a drainage outlet in rural or agricultural areas. The Seoul meteorological station was selected as tile index station, and the maximum rainfalls-duration-frequency (R-D-F) relation of short-time intense rainfalls was first established. A frequency analysis of the daily rainfalls for the 75 stations selected throughout the country resulted the 50-year daily rainfall for each station. The rainfall factor, which is defined here as the ration of 50-year daily rainfalls of individual station and the index station, was determined for the 8 climatological regions divided in this study. Following the US SCS method the runoff number of a watershed was given based on the soil type, land-use pattern, and the surface treatment. With this runoff number and the R-D-F relationship the runoff factors for the index station were computed and hence a nomogram could be drawn which makes it possible to determine the runoff factor for a given rainfall number and a rainfall of specific duration and frequency. With this done, the potential runoff of a watershed for a given rainfall duration could be calculated, based on the unit hydrograph theory, by multiplying the rainfall factor, the runoff factor, and the drainage area of the watershed under consideration. Then, the maximum runoff potential was determined by varying the rainfall duration and finding out the duration which results the peak discharge of a gived return period.

• Water for future
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.99-106
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• 1984

This paper resents frequency distribution of annual maxima of daily rainfall, temperature and pressure at twelve major meteorological stations in South Korea based on avaliable series of annual maxima. As a first step a traditional way of estimating the probabilities of extremes using Jenkinson's method was used here. The results are presented in the form of graph giving the various recurrence periods of rainfall, temperature and pressure and the frequency distributions obtained are discussed.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.57-71
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• 2024

This study aims to develop an evaluation method for solar power facilities considering disaster impacts and to analyse the vulnerabilities of existing facilities. Haenam-gun in Jeollanam-do, where the reassessment of existing facilities is urgent, was selected as the study area. To evaluate the vulnerability from a more objective perspective, principal component analysis and entropy methods were utilised. Seven vulnerability assessment indicators were selected: maximum hourly rainfall, maximum wind speed, number of typhoon occurrence days, number of rainfall days lasting more than five days, maximum daily rainfall, impermeable area ratio, and population density. Among these, maximum hourly rainfall, maximum wind speed, maximum daily rainfall, and number of rainfall days lasting more than five days were found to have the highest weights. The overlay of the derived weights showed that the southeastern regions of Haenam-eup and Bukil-myeon were classified as Grade 1 and 2, whereas the northern regions of Hwawon-myeon, Sani-myeon, and Munnae-myeon were classified as Grade 4 and 5, indicating differences in vulnerability. Of the 2,133 facilities evaluated, 91.1% were classified as Grade 3 or higher, indicating a generally favourable condition. However, there were more Grade 1 facilities than Grade 2, highlighting the need for countermeasures. This study is significant in that it evaluates solar power facilities considering urban disaster resilience and is expected to be used as a basic resource for the installation of new facilities or the management and operation of existing ones.