• 제목/요약/키워드: market price

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A New Approach to Short-term Price Forecast Strategy with an Artificial Neural Network Approach: Application to the Nord Pool

  • Kim, Mun-Kyeom
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.1480-1491
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    • 2015
  • In new deregulated electricity market, short-term price forecasting is key information for all market players. A better forecast of market-clearing price (MCP) helps market participants to strategically set up their bidding strategies for energy markets in the short-term. This paper presents a new prediction strategy to improve the need for more accurate short-term price forecasting tool at spot market using an artificial neural networks (ANNs). To build the forecasting ANN model, a three-layered feedforward neural network trained by the improved Levenberg-marquardt (LM) algorithm is used to forecast the locational marginal prices (LMPs). To accurately predict LMPs, actual power generation and load are considered as the input sets, and then the difference is used to predict price differences in the spot market. The proposed ANN model generalizes the relationship between the LMP in each area and the unconstrained MCP during the same period of time. The LMP calculation is iterated so that the capacity between the areas is maximized and the mechanism itself helps to relieve grid congestion. The addition of flow between the areas gives the LMPs a new equilibrium point, which is balanced when taking the transfer capacity into account, LMP forecasting is then possible. The proposed forecasting strategy is tested on the spot market of the Nord Pool. The validity, the efficiency, and effectiveness of the proposed approach are shown by comparing with time-series models

인터넷 시장과 기존 시장의 효율성에 대한 소비자의 인지 - 20~30대 여성소비자를 중심으로 - (The Perception on the Efficiency of the Internet Market and the Traditional Market - Focused in Women Consumers in their 20s ~ 30s -)

  • 남수정;김기옥
    • 대한가정학회지
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    • 제40권12호
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    • pp.199-216
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this research is to study the efficiency of the Internet market, not provided to consumers by the existing traditional market. This research examines whether consumers properly understand the efficiency of the Internet market. The result from consumers perception on the efficiencies in the two market are as follows. First, consumers perceived the traditional market as having more product alternatives compared to the Internet market. Second, consumers perceived that the Internet market was more efficient in price dispersion and price change Third, the Internet market was considered more efficient in searching and travel time, and in the search cost. Finally, the traditional market was considered as a better provider of the information about product function, feature, reality, usage and service compared to the Internet market. On the contrary, the Internet market turned out to be more effective in providing product information, price information and trading information compared to the traditional market. Therefore consumers perceived the traditional market of having more information.

전력시장 적용을 위한 쿠르노 모델에서의 역수요함수 추정 방법 제안 (The Method for Estimating the Inverse Demand Curve of Cournot Model in Electricity Market)

  • 강동주;허진;김태현;문영환;이근대;정구형;김발호
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제54권2호
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2005
  • At present Cournot model is one of the most commonly used theories to analyze the gaming situation in oligopoly market. But there exist several problems to apply this model to electricity market. The representative one is to obtain the inverse demand curve able to be induced from the relationship between market price and demand response. In Cournot model, each player offers their generation quantity to accomplish maximum profit, which is accomplished by reducing their quantity compared with available total capacity. As stated above, to obtain the probable Cournot equilibrium to reflect real market situation, we have to induce the correct demand function first of all. Usually the correlation between price and demand appears on the long-term basis through the statistical data analysis (for example, regression analysis) or by investigating consumer utility functions of several consumer groups classified as residential, industrial, and commercial. However, the elasticity has a tendency to change continuously according to the total market demand size or the level of market price. Therefore it should be updated as trading period passes by. In this paper we propose a method for inducing and updating this price elasticity of demand function for more realistic market equilibrium.

가격차에 의해 발생하는 수요대체효과를 고려한 정태적 최적가격결정 모형 수립 (A Deterministic Model for Optimal Pricing Decisions with Price-Driven Substitution)

  • 김상원
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2008
  • Market segmentation is a key strategic factor in increasing the expected profits, especially in the practice of revenue management. A manufacturing firm should manage both manufacturing quantities and pricing decisions over its segmented markets to maximize the expected profits, setting different price for each different segment. Also, market segments should be kept separate in order to prevent demand leakages between different market segments. In fact, even though the markets for different products are firmly segmented, it is not easy to keep separate segmentation because many products might be substitutable by customer buying behavior. That is, customers respond to price changes by purchasing other market's products instead of purchasing the originally requested products, which causes demand substitution effect ; This kind of substitution is referred to as price-driven substitution. Therefore, decisions on optimal prices should take into account the differences in customers' valuation of the different products. We consider a deterministic model for deciding optimal prices in the presence of price-driven substitution, and we compare both symmetrical-and asymmetrical-type demand substitutions between two segmented markets. The objective of this study is to develop analytical and numerical models to examine the impact of price-driven substitution on the optimal price levels and the total expected profits.

Analysis of Hierarchical Competition Structure and Pricing Strategy in the Hotel Industry

  • BAEK, Unji;SIM, Youngseok;LEE, Seul-Ki
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제6권4호
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    • pp.179-187
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to investigate the effects of market commonality and resource similarity on price competition and the recursive consequences in the Korean lodging market. Price comparison among hotels in the same geographic market has been facilitated through the development of information technology, rendering little search cost of consumers. While the literature implies the heterogeneous price attack and response among hotels, a limited number of empirical researches focus on the asymmetric and recursive pattern in the competitive dynamics. This study empirically examines the price interactions in the Korean lodging market based on the theoretical framework of competitive price interactions and countervailing power. Demonstrating superiority to the spatial lag model and the ordinary least squares in the estimation, the results from spatial error model suggest that the hotels with longer operational history pose an asymmetric impact on the price of the newer hotels. The asymmetry is also found in chain hotels over the independent, further implying the possibility of predatory pricing. The findings of this study provide the evidence of a hierarchical structure in the price competition, with different countervailing power by the resources of the hotels. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed, with suggestions for future study.

수산물 생산자물가지수 산정방식에 관한 고찰;-연근해 어획물을 중심으로- (A Study on the Construction of Fisheries Producer Price Index)

  • 이광진
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 1996
  • As an important factor of capitalism economics, price of commodities represents a certain country's economic index. For having correct price policy, there should be an appropriate mechanism to make and use systematic statistical data on price. Price statistics are made by indexes and price indexes are categorized into producer price index(PPI) and consumer price index(CPI). The Bank of Korea is publishing producer price index every year, but the producer price index contains some problems. These include as follows : (a) the impractical selection of fisheries products sample (b) uncorrect measure of aquatic products weights (c) investigating sample places. This study try to substitute producer price index of aquatic products and change construction of fisheries producer price index with experimental research on representative fisheries, weight of each fisheries, and suitability of investigating sample places. It is possible to improve practical fisheries producer price index with the results of this research. The findings are as follow. (a) It will be helpful for the government to make the fisheries price policy. (b) It can be used to understand trends of accurate price and price increase of aquatic products, and it's possible to compare with it other industrial indexes including the mining, agricultural, and manufacturing industry and understand relative price movement. (c) When free sales systems of fisheries products as expected, it will be helpful to analyze price movement of producing fisheries cooperatives, producing fisheries market and consuming fisheries market, analysis of market, and formation and consideration of budget. (d) It can be an important index to determine labor wage.

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경쟁적 전력시장에서의 적정 직거래 계약가격 설정에 관한 연구 (Analysis of Mechanism Design for the Optimal Bilateral Contract in the Competitive Electricity Market)

  • 정구형;노재형;조기선;김학만
    • 전기학회논문지P
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    • 제59권3호
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    • pp.263-267
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    • 2010
  • Although electricity market structures may be different from each country, they have a long-term forward market and a short-term spot market in general. Particularly, a bilateral contract transacted at a long-term forward market fixes the electricity price between a genco and a customer so that the customer can avoid risk due to price-spike in the spot market. The genco also can make an efficient risk-hedging strategy through the bilateral contract. In this paper, we propose a new mechanism for deriving the optimal bilateral contract price using game theory. This mechanism can make the customer reveal his true willingness to purchase so that an adequate bilateral contract price is derived.

System Dynamics Modeling of Korean Lease Contract Chonsei

  • Myung-Gi Moon;Moonseo Park;Hyun-Soo Lee;Sungjoo Hwang
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2013
  • Since the sub-prime mortgage crisis from the US in 2008, the Korean housing market has plummeted. However, the deposit prices of the Korean local lease contract, Chonsei, had been increasing. This increase of Chonsei prices can be a threat to low-income people, most of whom prefer to live in houses with a Chonsei contract. In the housing and Chonsei market, there are many stakeholders with their own interest, hence, simple thoughts about housing and Chonsei market, such as more house supply, will decrease house price, would not work in a real complex housing market. In this research, we suggests system dynamics conceptual model which consists of causal-loop-diagrams for the Chonsei market as well as the housing market. In conclusion, the Chonsei price has its own homeostasis characteristics and different price behavior with housing price in the short and long term period. We found that unless government does not have a structural causation mind in implementing policies in the real estate market, the government may not attain their intended effectiveness on both markets.

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Identifying Cryptocurrency Regulation Effects on Bitcoin Price : An Empirical Case in South Korea

  • ;전성민
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국벤처창업학회 2018년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.187-190
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    • 2018
  • The study examines the effects of the regulation on cryptocurrency market, investigating a case in South Korea. As South Korea has one of the largest market share of the cryptocurrency market for the time being, its regulation in South Korea affected the entire markets around the World. This research in progress will use the method of difference-in-differences to assess the effects of regulation to the market. The findings indicate that there is a significant reduction of the Bitcoin price and the price volatility was significantly reduced by about 58% after the regulation of the cryptocurrency market. More so the trading activity indicates a huge decline after regulation was implemented.

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