• Title/Summary/Keyword: loss probability

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Improving Durability Performance of Reinforced Concrete Structures with Probabilistic Analysis

  • Ferreira, Rui Miguel
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2008
  • In recent years, much research work has been performed on durability design and long-term performance of concrete structures in marine environments. In particular, the development of new procedures for probability-based durability design has been shown to provide a more realistic basis for the analysis. This approach has been successfully applied to several new concrete structures, where requirements for a more controlled durability and service life have been specified. For reinforced concrete structures in a marine environment, it is commonly assumed that the dominant degradation mechanism is the corrosion of the reinforcement due to the presence of chlorides. The design approach is based on the verification of durability limit states, examples of which are: depassivation of reinforcement, cracking and spalling due to corrosion, and collapse due to cross section loss of reinforcement. With this design approach the probability of failure can be determined as a function of time. In the present paper, a probability-based durability performance analysis is used in order to demonstrate the importance of the durability design approach of concrete structures in marine environments. In addition, the sensitivity of the various durability parameters affecting and controlling the durability of concrete structures in a marine environment is studied. Results show that the potential of this approach to assist durability design decisions making process is great. Based the crucial information generated, it is possible to prolong the service life of structures while simultaneously optimizing the final design solution.

Performance of All-Optical Multihop RoFSO Communication System over Gamma-Gamma Atmospheric Turbulence Channels

  • Zong, Kang;Zhu, Jiang
    • Journal of the Optical Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.437-443
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we analyze the performance of the all-optical multihop radio over a free space optical (RoFSO) communication system with amplify-and-forward (AF) relays under varying weather conditions. The proposed channel model considers the propagation loss, attenuation and atmospheric fading modeled by the Gamma-Gamma (GG) distribution. Both the amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise in the all-optical relays and the background noise projected onto receiver apertures have been considered in the analysis. The lower bound analytical expressions for the end-to-end bit error rate (BER) and outage probability are derived for the multihop system employing the all-optical relays with the full channel state information (CSI). Meanwhile, the exact results for BER and outage probability are obtained via Monte Carlo simulation. Results indicate the performance of the proposed system will be improved by the multihop transmission technology. For a fixed number of relays, the BER and outage probability will be increased with the deterioration of the weather conditions.

A dynamic reliability approach to seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams

  • Hu, Hongqiang;Huang, Yu
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.661-668
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    • 2019
  • Seismic vulnerability assessment is a useful tool for rational safety analysis and planning of large and complex structural systems; it can deal with the effects of uncertainties on the performance of significant structural systems. In this study, an efficient dynamic reliability approach, probability density evolution methodology (PDEM), is proposed for seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams. The PDEM provides the failure probability of different limit states for various levels of ground motion intensity as well as the mean value, standard deviation and probability density function of the performance metric of the earth dam. Combining the seismic reliability with three different performance levels related to the displacement of the earth dam, the seismic fragility curves are constructed without them being limited to a specific functional form. Furthermore, considering the seismic fragility analysis is a significant procedure in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of structures, the seismic vulnerability results obtained by the dynamic reliability approach are combined with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic loss analysis to present and address the PDEM-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment framework by a simulated case study of an earth dam.

Impact of playout buffer dynamics on the QoE of wireless adaptive HTTP progressive video

  • Xie, Guannan;Chen, Huifang;Yu, Fange;Xie, Lei
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.447-458
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    • 2021
  • The quality of experience (QoE) of video streaming is degraded by playback interruptions, which can be mitigated by the playout buffers of end users. To analyze the impact of playout buffer dynamics on the QoE of wireless adaptive hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP) progressive video, we model the playout buffer as a G/D/1 queue with an arbitrary packet arrival rate and deterministic service time. Because all video packets within a block must be available in the playout buffer before that block is decoded, playback interruption can occur even when the playout buffer is non-empty. We analyze the queue length evolution of the playout buffer using diffusion approximation. Closed-form expressions for user-perceived video quality are derived in terms of the buffering delay, playback duration, and interruption probability for an infinite buffer size, the packet loss probability and re-buffering probability for a finite buffer size. Simulation results verify our theoretical analysis and reveal that the impact of playout buffer dynamics on QoE is content dependent, which can contribute to the design of QoE-driven wireless adaptive HTTP progressive video management.

Does Paid Sick Leave Induce Welfare Burden?

  • Namhoon KIM
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to empirically evaluate the unintended welfare losses induced by paid sick leave, examine the severity of the unintended moral hazard loss caused by paid sick leave, and evaluate how much moral hazard cost society can accept to obtain paid sick leave benefits. Research Design, Data and Methodology: We examine the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data collected in 2013 and 2014 by employing a panel probit analysis to control for individual heterogeneity. Results: The estimation result shows that the probability of absence due to paid sick leave increases from 4.91% to 7.84%. Among them, excluding the probability of increasing absence from 1.29% to 2.69% due to the actual disease, the probability of absence due to the moral hazard was estimated to be 2.41% to 6.49% in the proposed models. Based on the result, if we evaluate the increase in absence caused by moral hazard as a social cost, the estimated cost is approximately $174 to $297 per worker per year. Conclusion: Considering these expected costs, our society can obtain the access benefit from paid sick leave if we are willing to accept the moral hazard cost.

Probabilistic Modeling for Evaluation of Information Security Investment Portfolios (확률모형을 이용한 정보보호 투자 포트폴리오 분석)

  • Yang, Won-Seok;Kim, Tae-Sung;Park, Hyun-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2009
  • We develop a probability model to evaluate information security investment portfolios. We assume that organizations install portfolios of information security countermeasures to mitigate the damage such as loss of the transaction being processed, damage of hardware and data, etc. A queueing model and Its expected value analysis are used to derive the lost cost of transactions being processed, the replacement cost of hardwares, and the recovery cost of data. The net present value for each portfolio is derived and organizations can select the optimal information security investment portfolio by comparing portfolios.

Performance Analysis for CDMA Soft Handoffs between MSC's under Hexagonal Configuration (육각형의 셀배치를 가지는 CDMA 이동통신 시스템에서 MSC 간의 소프트 핸드오프를 위한 성능분석)

  • Choi, Woo-Yong;Jun, Chi-Hyuck
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.277-284
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    • 2004
  • CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) is a promising air interface technique for digital cellular systems. The soft handoff between base stations is one of many important features of CDMA for the mobile stations crossing the cell boundaries. The service areas of MSC's (Mobile Switching Centers) are defined as the unions of the service areas of the base stations connected to MSC's and are assumed to have hexagonal shapes. An analytical approach to the performance analysis of the link between MSC's for supporting the inter-MSC soft handoff scheme will be developed to obtain the probability that a soft handoff to an adjacent MSC will be blocked due to the shortage of the link capacity. Also, the rate of new connection establishments that are requested by the mobile stations moving to the service area of an MSC according to the inter-MSC soft handoff scheme will be obtained.

A study on the overload control of the ATM switching system (ATM 교환기 과부하제어 연구)

  • 기장근;최진규;김영선
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.952-960
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, a new overload control scheme is proposed for a control system in ATM switching system. The proposed control scheme includes a counter that conunts the number of accepted calls and is decreased at cach D time interval. In overload condition of call processor, the control scheme detects over load condition when the counter value reaches a certain threshold value. Under overload condition, processor utilization is measured and the value of the D is updataed according to the difference between measured processor utilization and target utilization. A new call is accepted accepted only if the value of the counter is less than the threshold value. In overflow condition of cell traffic, accept probability of new call is reduced exponetially according to the elapsed time. The results of simulation show that the proposed overload contorl scheme maintains the target utilization very well under the various processor overload conditions and reduces the cell loss probability under the cell overflow conditions.

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Design of Statistical-QoS VPN in IP Networks

  • Lee, Hoon;Uh, Yoon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.27 no.5C
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    • pp.465-473
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    • 2002
  • In this paper the authors propose a theoretic framework to design the Virtual Private Network (VPN) via which the Quality of Services (QoSs) are guaranteed over IP networks. The required QoS is a very strict packet loss probability or a probability that packet delay does not exceed a certain target value in a statistical manner. QoSs are guaranteed by providing a statistical bandwidth similar to equivalent bandwidth, which is computed so that the provided bandwidth is sufficient to guarantee those requirements. Two typical network architectures are considered in constructing VPN, the customer pipe scheme and the Hose scheme, and we propose a method to compute the amount of the required bandwidth for the two schemes. Finally, we investigate the implication of the scheme via numerical experiments.

Overload control mechanism by parameter tuning in FDDI networks (FDDI 네트워크의 파라미터 튜닝에 의한 과부하 제어 메카니즘)

  • 이준호;김경신;강문식;송명렬;이상배
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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    • v.32A no.4
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    • pp.32-39
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    • 1995
  • In this paper, a timer thresholds tuning algorithm is proposed, satisfying the required response time for traffic with time-critical applications and asynchronous traffic in FDDI network. Under light and medium load, priorities and timer thresholds play a minor role for medium access control. In these cases all quenes are served exhaustively with a ver high service probability and the packet loss probability approaches almost zero. Under overload condition, however, the performance of the FDDI Network is completely determined by the selection of the timer thresholds. The timer thresholds tuned by mathematical results is confirmed by simulation results using SIMAN/UNIX package. The allocation of guaranteed bandwidth can be controlled easily by tuning the timer thresholds according to the proposed rules.

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