• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-82
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.999-1009
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• 2022

The Chuncheon Mullori area is an underprivileged area for water welfare that does not have a local water supply system. Here, water is supplied to the village by using a small-scale water supply facility that uses underground water and underground water as the source. To solve the problem of water shortage during drought and to prepare for the increasing water demand, a sand dam was installed near the valley river, and this facility has been operating since May 2022. In this study, in order to evaluate the reliability of water supply when a sand dam is assumed during a drought in the past, groundwater runoff simulation results using MODFLOW were used to generate inflow data from 2011 to 2020, an unmeasured period. After performing SWAT-K basin hydrologic modeling for the watershed upstream of the existing water intake source and the sand dam, the groundwater runoff was calculated, and the relative ratio of the monthly groundwater runoff for the previous 10 years to the monthly groundwater runoff in 2021 was obtained. By applying this ratio to the 2021 inflow time series data, historical inflow data from 2011 to 2020 were generated. As a result of analyzing the availability of water supply during extreme drought in the past for three cases of demand 20 m³/day, 50 m³/day, and 100 m³/day, it can be confirmed that the reliability of water supply increases with the installation of sand dams. In the case of 100 m³/day, it was analyzed that the reliability exceeded 90% only when the existing water intake source and the sand dam were operated in conjunction. All three operating conditions were evaluated to satisfy 50 m³/day or more of demand based on 95% reliability of water supply and 30 m³/day or more of demand based on 99% of reliability.

• Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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• v.14 no.7
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• pp.141-160
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to devise a specific plan for activating sports to promote health in old age against the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. Through literature review, it also analyzed the association between health status and COVID-19 in old age, suggested health promotion policies and projects for elderly people, and presented a plan for activating sport to promote health in old age against COVID-19 era. First, it is necessary to revise the relevant laws, including the Sport Promotion Act and the Elderly Welfare Act, partially or entirely, make developmental and convergent legislations for elderly health and sports, and establish an institutional device as needed. Second, it is necessary to build an integrated digital platform for the elderly and make a supporting system that links facilities, programs, information, and job creation as part of a New Deal program in the field of sports on the basis of the Korean New Deal. Third, it is necessary to train elderly welfare professionals. Efforts should be made to establish more departments related to elderly sports in universities and make it compulsory to place elderly sports instructors at elderly leisure and welfare facilities. Fourth, it is necessary to develop contents related to health in old age. This means performing diverse movements by manipulating them through a virtual reality (VR) simulation. Fifth, it is necessary to make a greater investment in research and development related to elderly sports and relevant fields. This means the need to conduct constant research on healthy and active aging in a systematic and practical way through multidisciplinary cooperation. Sixth, it is necessary to establish and operate an elderly management agency (elderly health agency) under the influence of the Office of the Prime Minister. This means the need to secure independence in implementing the functions related to health promotion in old age and make comprehensive operation, which involves all the issues of health promotion in old age, daily function maintenance and rehabilitation, social adjustment, and long-term care, by establishing an elderly management agency in an effort to give lifelong health management to the elderly and cope with the untact, New Normal age.