• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-term prediction

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Traffic Flow Prediction with Spatio-Temporal Information Fusion using Graph Neural Networks

  • Huijuan Ding;Giseop Noh
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.88-97
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    • 2023
  • Traffic flow prediction is of great significance in urban planning and traffic management. As the complexity of urban traffic increases, existing prediction methods still face challenges, especially for the fusion of spatiotemporal information and the capture of long-term dependencies. This study aims to use the fusion model of graph neural network to solve the spatio-temporal information fusion problem in traffic flow prediction. We propose a new deep learning model Spatio-Temporal Information Fusion using Graph Neural Networks (STFGNN). We use GCN module, TCN module and LSTM module alternately to carry out spatiotemporal information fusion. GCN and multi-core TCN capture the temporal and spatial dependencies of traffic flow respectively, and LSTM connects multiple fusion modules to carry out spatiotemporal information fusion. In the experimental evaluation of real traffic flow data, STFGNN showed better performance than other models.

Prediction Oil and Gas Throughput Using Deep Learning

  • Sangseop Lim
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.155-161
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    • 2023
  • 97.5% of our country's exports and 87.2% of imports are transported by sea, making ports an important component of the Korean economy. To efficiently operate these ports, it is necessary to improve the short-term prediction of port water volume through scientific research methods. Previous research has mainly focused on long-term prediction for large-scale infrastructure investment and has largely concentrated on container port water volume. In this study, short-term predictions for petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume were performed for Ulsan Port, one of the representative petroleum ports in Korea, and the prediction performance was confirmed using the deep learning model LSTM (Long Short Term Memory). The results of this study are expected to provide evidence for improving the efficiency of port operations by increasing the accuracy of demand predictions for petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume. Additionally, the possibility of using LSTM for predicting not only container port water volume but also petroleum and liquefied gas cargo water volume was confirmed, and it is expected to be applicable to future generalized studies through further research.

A Study on the Long-term Settlements Characterlistics and Settlement Prediction of Soft Ground in West-South Region (서남권 연약지반의 장기침하 특성과 침하예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Jung, Jisu;Ji, Younghwan;Kim, Sungmun
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.77-91
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    • 2012
  • Recently, construction of housing sites, complexes, roads, ports and airports is increasing for high-intensity use of the country and balanced development between regions. Presently, constructions are being conducted at soft ground. Consequently, engineering problems as long-term settlement of the ground, differential settlement, local structural damage have been reported consistently at construction site. In particular, long-term subsidence of the ground as various constructions and loads by the load will necessarily occur in the soft ground of west-south coast and inland coast. Therefore, in this study, regional proper analysis methods of the Hyperbole method, Hosino method, $\sqrt{S}$ method, Asaoka method etc as existing long-term settlement prediction methods have been examined and a study on new prediction method was conducted through deduction of a generalized equation. Correlation coefficients of soil properties and construction conditions has been analyzed and a matching coefficient of long-term settlement characteristics has been deducted. Comparison and analysis of monitoring data and numerical analysis results of 16 local area have been conducted.

Development of prediction model identifying high-risk older persons in need of long-term care (장기요양 필요 발생의 고위험 대상자 발굴을 위한 예측모형 개발)

  • Song, Mi Kyung;Park, Yeongwoo;Han, Eun-Jeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2022
  • In aged society, it is important to prevent older people from being disability needing long-term care. The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model to discover high-risk groups who are likely to be beneficiaries of Long-Term Care Insurance. This study is a retrospective study using database of National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) collected in the past of the study subjects. The study subjects are 7,724,101, the population over 65 years of age registered for medical insurance. To develop the prediction model, we used logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and multi-layer perceptron neural network. Finally, random forest was selected as the prediction model based on the performances of models obtained through internal and external validation. Random forest could predict about 90% of the older people in need of long-term care using DB without any information from the assessment of eligibility for long-term care. The findings might be useful in evidencebased health management for prevention services and can contribute to preemptively discovering those who need preventive services in older people.

Long-term Prediction of Speech Signal Using a Neural Network (신경 회로망을 이용한 음성 신호의 장구간 예측)

  • 이기승
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.522-530
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    • 2002
  • This paper introduces a neural network (NN) -based nonlinear predictor for the LP (Linear Prediction) residual. To evaluate the effectiveness of the NN-based nonlinear predictor for LP-residual, we first compared the average prediction gain of the linear long-term predictor with that of the NN-based nonlinear long-term predictor. Then, the effects on the quantization noise of the nonlinear prediction residuals were investigated for the NN-based nonlinear predictor A new NN predictor takes into consideration not only prediction error but also quantization effects. To increase robustness against the quantization noise of the nonlinear prediction residual, a constrained back propagation learning algorithm, which satisfies a Kuhn-Tucker inequality condition is proposed. Experimental results indicate that the prediction gain of the proposed NN predictor was not seriously decreased even when the constrained optimization algorithm was employed.

Fuel Consumption Prediction and Life Cycle History Management System Using Historical Data of Agricultural Machinery

  • Jung Seung Lee;Soo Kyung Kim
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2022
  • This study intends to link agricultural machine history data with related organizations or collect them through IoT sensors, receive input from agricultural machine users and managers, and analyze them through AI algorithms. Through this, the goal is to track and manage the history data throughout all stages of production, purchase, operation, and disposal of agricultural machinery. First, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) is used to estimate oil consumption and recommend maintenance from historical data of agricultural machines such as tractors and combines, and C-LSTM (Convolution Long Short-Term Memory) is used to diagnose and determine failures. Memory) to build a deep learning algorithm. Second, in order to collect historical data of agricultural machinery, IoT sensors including GPS module, gyro sensor, acceleration sensor, and temperature and humidity sensor are attached to agricultural machinery to automatically collect data. Third, event-type data such as agricultural machine production, purchase, and disposal are automatically collected from related organizations to design an interface that can integrate the entire life cycle history data and collect data through this.

Performance Assessment of Two-stream Convolutional Long- and Short-term Memory Model for September Arctic Sea Ice Prediction from 2001 to 2021 (Two-stream Convolutional Long- and Short-term Memory 모델의 2001-2021년 9월 북극 해빙 예측 성능 평가)

  • Chi, Junhwa
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_1
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    • pp.1047-1056
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    • 2022
  • Sea ice, frozen sea water, in the Artic is a primary indicator of global warming. Due to its importance to the climate system, shipping-route navigation, and fisheries, Arctic sea ice prediction has gained increased attention in various disciplines. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), motivated by a desire to develop more autonomous and efficient future predictions, have led to the development of new sea ice prediction models as alternatives to conventional numerical and statistical prediction models. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the two-stream convolutional long-and short-term memory (TS-ConvLSTM) AI model, which is designed for learning both global and local characteristics of the Arctic sea ice changes, for the minimum September Arctic sea ice from 2001 to 2021, and to show the possibility for an operational prediction system. Although the TS-ConvLSTM model generally increased the prediction performance as training data increased, predictability for the marginal ice zone, 5-50% concentration, showed a negative trend due to increasing first-year sea ice and warming. Additionally, a comparison of sea ice extent predicted by the TS-ConvLSTM with the median Sea Ice Outlooks (SIOs) submitted to the Sea Ice Prediction Network has been carried out. Unlike the TS-ConvLSTM, the median SIOs did not show notable improvements as time passed (i.e., the amount of training data increased). Although the TS-ConvLSTM model has shown the potential for the operational sea ice prediction system, learning more spatio-temporal patterns in the difficult-to-predict natural environment for the robust prediction system should be considered in future work.

Groundwater Level Prediction using ANFIS Algorithm (딥러닝을 이용한 하천 유량 예측 알고리즘)

  • Bak, Gwi-Man;Oh, Se-Rang;Park, Geun-Ho;Bae, Young-Chul
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.1239-1248
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we present FDNN algorithm to perform prediction based on academic understanding. In order to apply prediction based on academic understanding rather than data-dependent prediction to deep learning, we constructed algorithm based on mathematical and hydrology. We construct a model that predicts flow rate of a river as an input of precipitation, and measure the model's performance through K-fold cross validation.

Long-term Behavior of FCM Bridges considering Seasonal Temperature Variation - Part 1 (계절변화에 따른 PSC 균형 켄틸레버 교량의 장기거동 특성)

  • Lee, Son-Ho;Lee, Hak-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.1 no.2 s.2
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2001
  • The objective of this study is to derive a shrinkage correction formula that considers temperature effect and to develop a methodology for the improved prediction of the long-term behavior of the FCM bridges by considering seasonal temperature variations in-situ. Thereby, current formulation were performed by using the actual experimental shrinkage data including seasonal temperature variation. The investigation of the long-term behavior of the FCM bridge was performed on the construction site in order to decide applicability of the shrinkage formula Numerical results by the general method indicates inaccurate values of total strain when considering real strain, whereas the applied method demonstrates a good agreement in the resultant strain. In consequently, the applied method will improve the prediction of the long-term deformation of the FCM Bridges.

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