• Title/Summary/Keyword: long-run relationship

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The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Determination for Korea (통화론적 접근방법에 근거한 외환위기 전후 원/달러 환율결정에 대한 비교분석)

  • Han, Kyue-Sook;Oh, Yu-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.81-93
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    • 2010
  • Korea experienced a financial crisis in 1997. Since then Korea economy has undergone severe change such as exchange rate regime from the market average exchange rate system to the free floating exchange rate system in 1997, and the currency rate fluctuation has been widening. We empirically analyze the determination of the Won/Dollar exchange rate based on the monetary approach. We employ Lucas (1982), Bilson (1978) and Frankel (1979) models and consider some mixed models. We make use of monthly data of money supply, income, interest rate, capital balance, terms of trade, and the yen/dollar exchange rate over the period 1990-2009. We compare the empirical results of cointegration tests and the vector error correction model(VECM) from the two regimes, the pre and post korean financial crisis. The won/dollar exchange rate has long-run relationship with the variables in the monetarist models in the two regimes. For the post crisis regime, the Bilson model is the best and the long run variables also affect the short run dynamics of the won/dollar exchange rate.

A Study on the Causalities Among GDP, Electric Consumption, CO2 Emission and Environmental Regulation in Korea (한국의 경제성장, 전력소비량, 이산화탄소 배출량 및 환경규제 간 인과관계 분석)

  • Jin, Bo-young;Kim, Geun-u;Park, Jung-gu
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2020
  • The rapid climate change is strengthening carbon emissions regulations internationally. Korea is strongly pressed to accept the obligation to reduce greenhouse gases as one of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article analyzed the Granger causalities among environmental regulation, economic growth, electricity consumption, and CO2 emission in Korea, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model. As the results, environmental regulation has shown the bidirectional causalities with electricity consumption and CO2 emission, while being unilaterally affected by economic growth in the long-run and strong relationship. Economic growth has affected electricity consumption, CO2 emission, and environmental regulation in the long-run, in the complex structure of the unilateral and short-run causality with electricity consumption and the bidirectional causality with CO2 emission. The policy implications will be as follows: ① environmental regulation should induce sustainable growth through encouraging technological innovation relating to CO2 reduction and productivity enhancement. ② Responding to the international CO2 reduction regulation, the synthetic policy initiatives will be considered to make synergy effects among policies relating to economic growth, electricity consumption.

Estimation of Korean LNG Price Allowing a Structural Change (구조변화를 고려한 한국의 LNG 가격 추정)

  • Cho, Hong Chong;Han, Wonhee
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.679-708
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    • 2015
  • Almost all of natural gas demand in Korea is currently met by overseas LNG imports. More than 80% of LNG is imported through the mid to long-term contracts with oil-linked pricing. Despite LNG price estimation provides valuable information with various interested parties, an empirical study as well as an econometric model on LNG price hasn't yet been available in Korea. This paper therefore, aims at analyzing not only whether the long-run equilibrium relationship between oil prices and Korean LNG prices exists but also whether structural change occurred in such relationship. Further, it aims at building a conditional VECM taking account of a structural change. According to the final model, an oil price shock is passed through to the LNG prices in nonlinear and different manner from the past.

The Analysis of the Road Freight Transportation using the Simultaneous Demand-Supply Model (수요-공급의 동시모형을 통한 공로 화물운송특성분석)

  • 장수은;이용택;지준호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 2001
  • This study represents a first attempt in Korea to develop the simultaneous freight supply-demand model which considers the relationship between freight supply and demand. As the existing study was limited in one area, or the supply and the demand was separated and assumed not to affect each other, this study take it into consideration the fact that the demand affects supply and simultaneously vice versa. This approach allows us to diagnose a policy carried on and helps us to make a resonable alternative for the effectiveness of freight transportation system. To find a relationship between them, we use a method of econometrics. a structural equation theory and two stage least-squares(2SLS) estimation technique, to get rid of bias which involves two successive applications of OLS. Based on the domestic freight data, this study consider as explanatory variables a number of population(P), industry(IN), the amount of production of the mining and manufacturing industries(MMI), the rate of the effectiveness of freight capacity(LE) and the distance of an empty carriage operation(VC). This study describes well the simultaneous process of freight supply-demand system in that the increase of VC from the decrease of VC raises the cargo capacity and cargo capacity also augments VC. By the way. it is analyzed that the increment of VC due to the increase of the cargo capacity is larger than the reduction of VC owing to the increase of the quantify of goods. Therefore an alternative policy is needed in a short and long run point of view. That is to say, to promote the effectiveness of the freight transportation system, a short term supply control and a long run logistic infrastructure are urgent based on the restoration of market economy by successive deregulation. So we are able to conclude that gradual deregulation is more desirable to build effective freight market.

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Banking Sector Depth and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • LE, Thi Thuy Hang;LE, Trung Dao;TRAN, Thi Dien;DUONG, Quynh Nga;DAO, Le Kieu Oanh;DO, Thi Thanh Nhan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.751-761
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    • 2021
  • The Vietnamese economy is a developing country that has brought many opportunities and challenges for the banking system. Commercial banks have developed strongly from quality to quantity, which plays a vital role in developing the economy. They play an important role in capital formation, which is essential for the economic development of a country. They provide financial services to the general public and businesses, ensuring economic and social stability and sustainable growth of the economy. Therefore, the relationship between bank depth and economic growth is of importance in research. This paper used a VAR (Vector Autoregressive Models) estimator for time series data models. The data is collected quarterly from the first quarter of the year 2000 to 2020. The study uses the VAR model to examine the causal relationships of economic growth, growth in money supply expansion, private sector capital requirement, and banks' domestic credit. The results indicate a general short-run relationship between banking sector depth and economic growth with a positive connection, but in the long term, the relationship between these variables can be reversed because of other macro factors. The findings show the two-way causal relationship between GDP growth and banking depth factors. This research contributes to policy-making by underlining the banking sector depth determinants when setting regulations and policies to develop the banking sector.

Innovative Marketing Channel in the South Korean Retail Banking Industry: The Case of KB Rockstar

  • Chung, Hwan;Kim, Sang Yong;Yoo, Changjo
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.23-42
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    • 2013
  • To overcome the profitability challenge these days, many global banks are increasingly focusing on cost efficiency through more efficient banking processes, such as online and mobile banking, whereas a number of other banks choose to differentiate their services for retaining and attracting the most valuable customer segment (Deloitte, 2011). While global banks in the retail banking industry are adopting either of these two business models as a strategic choice for their long-term growth, KB Kookmin Bank, one of the leading retail banks in South Korea, has begun to operate 'KB Rockstar' as a strategic channel, particularly designed to target college students in the youth market. The new marketing strategy has resulted in a positive impact on its brand image in customers' perception as well as a drastic increase in the number of youth customers. In this study, we analyze the case of 'KB Rockstar' and summarize the key factors for its success from a marketing perspective. First, 'KB Rockstar' is not simply a good channel strategy, but an innovative marketing strategy that aligns place, product and promotion together in order to create a synergy effect, resulting in the successful implementation of the bank's targeting strategy. Second, the strategy effectively establishes 'KB Rockstar' as a brand targeted to youth customers while also competently strengthening the image of the corporate brand, KB Kookmin Bank. The skillful implementation of organically combined marketing mix strategies has enabled the successful launch of the bank's sub-brand. Third, the strategy considers a retail bank branch as not only the place that makes sales transactions in order to generate short-term profits, but also the place that builds a long-term relationship with customers in order to maximize their lifetime values in the long run.

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Causal Relationships between Vessel Export and Economic Growth in Korean Shipbuilding Industry (우리나라 조선산업에서 선박수출과 경제성장의 인과성)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2008
  • This paper analyses the dynamic causal relationship between vessel export and economic growth using annual data over the period from 1977 to 2006. Tests for ADF unit-roots, the dynamic vector using Johansen's multiple cointegration procedure, dynamic vector error correction model and impulse response function are presented. The findings of the Granger test suggest that vessel export Granger-causes economic growth in the short-run and economic growth Granger-causes exports in the short and long-run. The empirical results of impulse-response analysis show that the vessel export to a shock in real GDP responds positively and the real GDP responds positively to the shocks in vessel export. Also, the results indicate that the impact of vessel export shock on the real GDP is short-lived.

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The Dynamic Effects of Globalization on the Firm Performance: A Study on Korea Maritime and Fishery Companies

  • Donghyun Lee;Heedae Park;Joongsan Ko
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.7
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    • pp.127-144
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study aimed to analyze the dynamic effects of progress in globalization on firm performance by employing individual companies' financial statement datasets. Design/methodology - The analysis leveraged the variables of operating revenue (OPRE) and pre-tax profit and loss (PLBT) as measurement variables for firm performance over 2011-2019. As a proxy variable for globalization, the trade index, a subordinate indicator of the KOF Globalization Index, was used. Through panel regression analysis, the relationship among those variables was ascertained, and the local projection (LP) method was subsequently utilized to identify dynamic effects. A subsample analysis was further performed by classifying companies based on their sizes and industries to determine the differential effects of globalization on each group. Findings - The panel regression analysis derived positive effects of an increasing degree of globalization on OPRE of Korea maritime and fishery firms. However, the impulse response functions, obtained from the LP, showed that in the short run, globalization affects PLBT negatively but in the long run, it gradually converted into a positive effect. In addition, according to the subsample analysis based on company size, the effects of globalization on OPRE became greater as each company became larger. Moreover, the industry-based analysis showed heterogeneous effects, depending on the industries in which the maritime and fishery companies operated. Originality/value - The analysis of the dynamic effects of globalization on firm performance, which revealed that the effects vary depending on the time points, is the important contribution of this study. The results also suggest that the effects of globalization vary depending on the company size and industry.

Relationship Between Income Inequality with Gini Coefficient and Consumption Expenditure: The Case of U.S and U.K (Gini 계수에 의한 소득불평등과 소비지출의 관계 분석 : 미국과 영국을 중심으로)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.392-405
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of income inequality on consumption expenditure in other to understand income-led growth policy. This is basically resulted in the income inequality had gotten worse since global financial crisis in many economies. Malthusian hypothesis which signifies the relationship between the income inequality and the consumption expenditure revisited for this purpose. The paper utilizes multiple break points regression and TGARCH model, and these methodologies are tentatively applied to the case of U.S and U.K. This is because that long-run time series data enables to formulate a stylized fact in general. Empirical evidence suggests that there does not exist a solid relationship among APC, income inequality by Gini coefficient, and consumption expenditure before the year of 2000, but Malthusian hypothesis is supported by weak basis in U.S while strong basis in U.K after since then. It implies that the income inequality has to be alleviated to maximize its effectiveness of the income-led growth policy.

An Impact Analysis of Famer's Individual Competency on Agricultural Organization's Performance (농업인의 개인역량과 조직성과간의 연관관계 분석)

  • Kim, Yoon Doo;Kim, Sa Gyun;Kim, Hyo Mi;Chae, Sue Ho
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.143-172
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    • 2013
  • This study aimed at learning the effect of farmers' individual competency on the performance of agricultural organization, and providing the preliminary data about strengthening the competitiveness of agriculture of the country by showing the effect of farmers' individual competency on the performance of agricultural organization. According to the results of our study, among 11 individual competencies, the ability to manage, customer satisfaction, marketing, and getting information have the positive relationship with the performance of agricultural organization, but strategic thinking has the negative relationship with the performance. The relationship between the performance and abstract competencies like teamwork, creativity, innovation, feasibility, and flexibility is not statistically significant. However, the abstract competencies are the core competencies within farmers, so farmers should be educated continuously in the long run in order to raise the performance.