• 제목/요약/키워드: long term rainfall-runoff model

검색결과 104건 처리시간 0.031초

LSTM을 이용한 탄천에서의 시간별 하천수위 모의 (Hourly Water Level Simulation in Tancheon River Using an LSTM)

  • 박창언
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제66권4호
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2024
  • This study was conducted on how to simulate runoff, which was done using existing physical models, using an LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model based on deep learning. Tancheon, the first tributary of the Han River, was selected as the target area for the model application. To apply the model, one water level observatory and four rainfall observatories were selected, and hourly data from 2020 to 2023 were collected to apply the model. River water level of the outlet of the Tancheon basin was simulated by inputting precipitation data from four rainfall observation stations in the basin and average preceding 72-hour precipitation data for each hour. As a result of water level simulation using 2021 to 2023 data for learning and testing with 2020 data, it was confirmed that reliable simulation results were produced through appropriate learning steps, reaching a certain mean absolute error in a short period time. Despite the short data period, it was found that the mean absolute percentage error was 0.5544~0.6226%, showing an accuracy of over 99.4%. As a result of comparing the simulated and observed values of the rapidly changing river water level during a specific heavy rain period, the coefficient of determination was found to be 0.9754 and 0.9884. It was determined that the performance of LSTM, which aims to simulate river water levels, could be improved by including preceding precipitation in the input data and using precipitation data from various rainfall observation stations within the basin.

농촌유역에서의 초기강우손실 특성분석과 계수 산정식 개발 - 금강.삽교천 중소유역을 중심으로- (Characteristic Analysis of the Coefficient of Initial Abstraction and Development of its Formular in the Rural Watersheds - for the Small-Medium Watersheds in the Geum and Sapkyo River -)

  • 김태철;이정선
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제50권6호
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2008
  • It is important to estimate accurate effective rainfall to analyse flood flow and long-term runoff for the rational planning, design, and management of water resource. The initial abstraction is also important to estimate effective rainfall. The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) has developed a procedure and it has been most commonly applied to estimate effective rainfall. But the SCS method still has weak points, because of unnatural assumptions such as antecedent moisture conditions and initial abstraction. The coefficient of initial abstraction(K) is depending on the soil moisture condition and antecedent rainfall. The maximum storage capacity of Umax which is calibrated by stream flow data in the proposed watershed was derived from the DAWAST(DAily WAtershed STreamflow) model. The values of K obtained from 69 storm events at the five watersheds are ranging from 0.133 to 0.365 and its mean value is 0.207. Effective rainfall could be estimated more reasonably by introducing new concept of initial abstraction. The equation of $K=0.076Sa^{0.255}$ was recommended instead of 0.2 and it could be applicable to the small-medium rural watersheds.

Assessment of streamflow variation considering long-term land-use change in a watershed

  • Noh, Joonwoo;Kim, Yeonsu;Yu, Wansik;Yu, Jisoo
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제48권3호
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    • pp.629-642
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    • 2021
  • Land-use change has an important role in the hydrologic characteristics of watersheds because it alters various hydrologic components such as interception, infiltration, and evapotranspiration. For example, rapid urbanization in a watershed reduces infiltration rates and increases peak flow which lead to changes in the hydrologic responses. In this study, a physical hydrologic model the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was used to assess long-term continuous daily streamflow corresponding to land-use changes that occurred in the Naesungchun river watershed. For a 30-year model simulation, 3 different land-use maps of the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s were used to identify the impacts of the land-use changes. Using SWAT-CUP (calibration and uncertainty program), an automated parameter calibration tool, 23 parameters were selected, optimized and compared with the daily streamflow data observed at the upstream, midstream and downstream locations of the watershed. The statistical indexes used for the model calibration and validation show that the model performance is improved at the downstream location of the Naesungchun river. The simulated streamflow in the mainstream considering land-use change increases up to -2 - 30 cm compared with the results simulated with the single land-use map. However, the difference was not significant in the tributaries with or without the impact of land-use change.

SWMM 모형을 이용한 비점오염 분석 및 CSO 관리방안 연구 - 부산시 온천천 유역 대상 - (The NPS Analysis and CSO Management Based on SWMM for Oncheon Basin)

  • 신현석;손정화;장종경;손태석;강두기;조덕준
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.268-280
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    • 2009
  • Oncheon basin which are located in Busan is divided into 43 basin on the basis of main pipe, constructed with Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Occurrence situation for Outflow and pollutant loads by long-term continuous rainfall is examined for treatment district and river analysis point of Oncheon basin and a reduction vs effectiveness table for effective CSOs managements is made for each of treatment districts according to each of managements. In case that treatment equipment is located at the discharge point of CSO, treatment efficiency is analysed. It is supposed that treatment equipment have an efficiency on the basis of a concentration and runoff discharge over a critical flow is discharged with it untreated and treating runoff discharge with treatment equipment at each of runoff discharge points and treating it gathered at sewage treatment plant (STP) through trunk sewer is compared for a relative treatment efficiency.

SWMM을 이용한 도시화유역 불투수율 변화에 따른 강우유출특성 분석 (Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Characteristics on Impervious Cover Changes using SWMM in an Urbanized Watershed)

  • 오동근;정세웅;류인구;강문성
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2010
  • The increase of impervious cover (IC) in a watershed is known as an important factor causing alteration of water cycle, deterioration of water quality and biological communities of urban streams. The study objective was to assess the impact of IC changes on the surface runoff characteristics of Kap Stream basin located in Geum river basin (Korea) using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). SWMM was calibrated and verified using the flow data observed at outlet of the watershed with 8 days interval in 2007 and 2008. According to the analysis of Landsat satellite imagery data every 5 years from 1975 to 2000, the IC of the watershed has linearly increased from 4.9% to 10.5% during last 25 years. The validated model was applied to simulate the runoff flow rates from the watershed with different IC rates every five years using the climate forcing data of 2007 and 2008. The simulation results indicated that the increase of IC area in the watershed has resulted in the increase of peak runoff and reduction of travel time during flood events. The flood flow ($Q_{95}$) and normal flow ($Q_{180}$) rates of Kap Stream increased with the IC rate. However, the low flow ($Q_{275}$) and drought flow ($Q_{355}$) rates showed no significant difference. Thus the subsurface flow simulation algorithm of the model needs to be revisited for better assessment of the impact of impervious cover on the long-term runoff process.

도로 비점오염 해석을 위한 ROADMOD개발 및 적용: 도로청소 효과 분석 (Development and Application of ROADMOD for Analysis of Non-point Source Pollutions from Road: Analysis of Removal Efficiency of Sediment in Road by Sweeping)

  • 강희만;전지홍
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제37권2호
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2021
  • In this study, an Excel-based model (ROADMOD) was developed to estimate pollutant loading from the road and evaluate BMPs. ROADMOD employs the Chezy-Manning equation and empirical expression for estimating surface runoff, and power function for pollutant buildup, and exponential function for pollutant washoff in SWMM. The results of model calibration for buildup and washoff using observed data revealed a good match between the simulation results and the observed data. The long-term surface runoff and sediment simulated by ROADMOD demonstrated a good match with those by SWMM with 2 ~ 14% of relative error. The shorter sweeping interval (within 8 days) remarkably decreased sediment loads from the road. It was found that the effect of reducing sediment loads from the road was greatly affected not only by the sweeping interval but also by sweeping on the day before a rainfall event. The 48% of removal efficiency of sediment loads from the road was achieved with 26 times of road sweeping per year when sweeping was performed on the day before the rainfall event. A 4-day sweeping interval showed similar removal efficiency (48%) with 96 times of sweeping per year. It is considered that the road sweeping on the day before a rainfall event could maximize the effect of reducing the non-point source pollution from the road with minimization of the number of road sweeping. So, the road sweeping on the day before a rainfall event can be considered as one of the useful and best management practices (BMPs) on road.

간척지 논 농업배수 처리에 적합한 인공습지 설계 기법 (Constructed Wetland Design Method to Treat Agricultural Drainage from Tidal Reclaimed Paddy Areas)

  • 장정렬;신유리;정지연;최강원
    • 한국관개배수논문집
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.4-17
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    • 2011
  • The standard design methodology was suggested to construct wetland system for reducing non-point source pollution from Saemangeum reclaimed paddy land. To set for the design flow and concentrations, runoff and water quality survey were conducted during the irrigation period in 2008 at Gyehwa reclaimed paddy land located at near Saemangeum lake. It is rational that 1ha is the optimum constructed wetland size. To meet this size, the moderate drainage area of reclaimed paddy field was 50ha under the conditions that rainfall is 30mm, average runoff coefficient is 0.83, and runoff capture ratio is 0.6. At these condition, the runoff volume from 50ha was 10,520 $m^3/d$ including base flow during irrigation period. To select the optimum wetland system, several case studies were conducted by focusing on the tidal reclaimed land areas having wetland systems in Seokmun. Pond-Wetland system was selected as the standard model because of showing the highest reduction efficiency. Single variable regression equation were delivered to estimate effluent water concentrations from the designed wetland by using long-term monitoring data from the Seokmun experiment site. The effluent concentration from the designed wetland using these equation were showed moderately range.

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고령지 농경지에서 융설에 의한 토양유실량 모의 (Simulation of Soil Erosion due to Snow Melt at Alpine Agricultural Lands)

  • 허성구;임경재;김기성;사공명;안재훈
    • 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국농공학회 2005년도 학술발표논문집
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    • pp.241-246
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    • 2005
  • Doam watershed is located at alpine areas in the Kangwon province. The annual average precipitation, including snow accumulation during the winter, at the Doam watershed is significantly higher than other areas. Thus, pollutant laden runoff and sediment discharge from the alpine agricultural fields are causing water quality degradation at the Doam watershed. To estimate soil erosion from the agricultural fields, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) has been widely used because of its simplicity to use. The USLE rainfall erosivity (R) factor is responsible for impacts of rainfall on soil erosion. Thus, use of constant R factor for the Doam watershed cannot reflect variations in precipitation patterns, consequently soil erosion estimation. In the early spring at the Doam watershed, the stream flow increases because of snow melt, which results in erosion of loosened soil experiencing freezing and thaw during the winter. However, the USLE model cannot consider the impacts on soil erosion of freezing and thaw of the soil. Also, it cannot simulate temporal changes in USLE input parameters. Thus, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was investigated for its applicability to estimate soil erosion at the Doam watershed, instead of the widely used USLE model. The SWAT hydrology and erosion/sediment components were validated after calibration of the hydrologic component. The $R^2$ and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient values are higher enough, thus it was found the SWAT model can be efficiently used to simulate hydrology and sediment yield at the Doam watershed. The effects of snow melt on SWAT estimated stream flow and sediment were investigated using long-term precipitation and temperature data at the Doam watershed. It was found significant amount of flow and sediment in the spring are contributed by melting snow accumulated during the winter. Thus, it is recommend that the SWAT model capable of simulating snow melt and long-term weather data needs to be used in estimating soil erosion at alpine agricultural land instead of the USLE model for successful soil erosion management at the Doam watershed.

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기상예보를 고려한 ESP 유출 확률 산정 (Estimation of ESP Probability considering Weather Outlook)

  • 안정민;이상진;김정곤;김주철;맹승진;우동현
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.264-272
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study was to develop a model for predicting long-term runoff in a basin using the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique and review its reliability. To achieve the objective, this study improved not only the ESP technique based on the ensemble scenario analysis of historical rainfall data but also conventional ESP techniques used in conjunction with qualitative climate forecasting information, and analyzed and assessed their improvement effects. The model was applied to the Geum River basin. To undertake runoff forecasting, this study tried three cases (case 1: Climate Outlook + ESP, case 2: ESP probability through monthly measured discharge, case 3: Season ESP probability of case 2) according to techniques used to calculate ESP probabilities. As a result, the mean absolute error of runoff forecasts for case 1 proposed by this study was calculated as 295.8 MCM. This suggests that case 1 showed higher reliability in runoff forecasting than case 2 (324 MCM) and case 3 (473.1 MCM). In a discrepancy-ratio accuracy analysis, the Climate Outlook + ESP technique displayed 50.0%. This suggests that runoff forecasting using the Climate Outlook +ESP technique with the lowest absolute error was more reliable than other two cases.

유역특성을 반영한 공간격자기반의 분포형모형 개선 (Modification of Spatial Grid Based Distributed Model Considering River Basin Characteristics)

  • 박진혁;허영택
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제28권3D호
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    • pp.431-436
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    • 2008
  • 최근, GIS기술의 급속한 발전에 따라 다양한 공간 수문 자료들이 속성정보와 결합되어 다루는 것이 가능해졌고, 집중형 유출모형보다 유역 유출량의 시 공간적인 변동을 고려할 수 있는 분포형유출 모형의 구축이 활발하게 연구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 장기 유출량의 시공간적 분포를 파악할 수 있도록 지표 및 하도흐름해석에 물리적인 운동파(kinematic wave)이론에 근거한 분포형 강우-유출모형을 이용하였다. Hydro-BEAM모형을 근간으로 융설 적설과정 모듈을 추가로 개발하였고, 각종 수문매개변수를 DEM, 토지피복도, 토양도 등의 기본 GIS자료들로 부터 추출, 본 모형의 입력 자료로 사용하였다. 본 모형의 적용성 검증을 위해서 비교적 신뢰할만한 기상자료와 장기간의 수문자료를 보유하고 있는 일본의 쇼나이강 유역(532)을 대상으로 구축하였고, 수문곡선 비교 결과 비교적 재현성 높은 유출 결과를 모의할 수 있었다.