• Title/Summary/Keyword: long term interest rate

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Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

A Study on Determinants of Asset Price : Focused on USA (자산가격의 결정요인에 대한 실증분석 : 미국사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Hyoung-Kyoo;Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

A STUDY ON THE DIRECTION OF THE FUTURE WELFARE SYSTEM (미래 복지체계의 방향성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Youn-Jae;Keum, Ki-Youn
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.153-171
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    • 2011
  • The welfare system and the direction of the welfare policy have been unable to escape greatly from the frame of the past against the facts that the external environments of the national economy of the world including Korea have been changing in quick and rapid speed. Such results have caused the issues related with the welfare, economy and society ended in the ideological collision in connection with the goals of the policy, the right agreement between the policies lacked, and the intervention and conflict between the interest group concerning the policy continued. Social policy of Korea in the past had the level of complementing the parts which could not be solved through the growth. Employment creation had been achieved continuously backed up by the high rate of growth. And the low aging level, the young population structure, and the high rate of childbirth had been the structures that made such achievement possible. New economic, social and welfare environment at home and abroad has been requesting new change in welfare policy. Goal of the economic and social policy is to construct the safe economic and social system. And what has been requested has been the formation of the economic and social policy orienting the welfare nation in form of social investment and welfare expansion. Also the direction in strengthening the welfare system of Korea shall have the balance between the protection and activation strength with the necessity of converting to the prevention welfare from the post welfare. Also the public part, market, the 3rd sector and the share of the role of an individual shall be achieved. And what is needed is the achievement of the transfer from the paradigm of residual welfare to the universal welfare. And such improvements of the welfare system will be able to elevate the possible continuity of the system in long term basis through the improvement of the welfare system.

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Effect of Fast Charging Mode on the Degradation of Lithium-Ion Battery: Constant Current vs. Constant Power (정전류/정출력 고속충전 방식에 따른 리튬이온전지의 열화 비교 연구)

  • Park, Sun Ho;Oh, Euntaek;Park, Siyoung;Lim, Jihun;Choi, Jin Hyeok;Lee, Yong Min
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.173-179
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    • 2020
  • Electric vehicles (EVs) using lithium secondary batteries (LIBs) with excellent power and long-term cycle performance are gaining interest as the successors of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. However, there are few systematic researches for fast charging to satisfy customers' needs. In this study, we compare the degradation of LIB where its composition is LiNi0.5Co0.2Mn0.3/Graphite with the constant current and constant power-charging method. The charging speed was set to 1C, 2C, 3C and 4C in the constant current mode and the value of constant power was calculated based on the energy at each charging speed. Therefore, by analyzing the battery degradation based on the same charging energy but different charging method; CP charging method can slow down the battery degradation at a high rate of 3C through the voltage curve, capacity retention and DC-IR. However, when the charging rate was increased by 4C or more, the deviation between the LIBs dominated the degradation than the charging method.

A Study on the Status Analysis and the Development plan of Beauty-IT Convergence Industry (뷰티-IT 융합산업의 현황 분석 및 발전방안 연구)

  • Moon, Won-Suk;Kim, Seok-Soo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.8
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    • pp.235-243
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    • 2015
  • Recently, due to the spread of the Korean Wave, as worldwide interest in Korean culture and the appearance of Korean celebrities increases, overseas expansion of Korean beauty companies have been activated. Despite the global economic downturn, Beauty Industry is continuing to grow, Korea's growth rate is remarkable level. Despite this growth in order to maintain a steady growth since the beauty industry is small and polarization based on the Beauty-IT Convergence Technology creates new markets, that require development of Beauty-IT Convergence Industry. For the status and prospects of the Beauty Industry, some research has been carried out, not all the studies carried out so far for Beauty-IT Convergence Industry. Therefore, this study is significant that Beauty-IT Convergence Industry's first research. The global Beauty-IT Convergence Industry is at the beginning yet, tThe government selected research topics of Top-Down approach to Beauty-IT Convergence technology, granted extra points, supported by establishing long-term Technology Roadmap as other industries, such as by establishing a global market strategy for the systematic occupation and promising technology development planWe will get focused training.

Alternative to Maximize Efficiency for Loan System of Sport Promotion Fund (국민체육진흥기금 융자제도 지원효과 극대화 방안)

  • Kang, Ho-Jung;Kim, Kyong-Sik
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.8 no.7
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    • pp.208-215
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    • 2008
  • Sport industry creates value-added by production and distribution of product or service related with sports or sports. Because this industry shows promise in becoming a major industry area, the government is making an effort to bring up or develop it. The financing to firms of sport industry area(sporting goods industry, sport facility industry, sport service industry) with low interest rate and long-term repayment period on the basis of sports promotion fund is excellent scheme to promote sport industry. Nevertheless, Because many people indicate operational inefficiency of it, it is necessary to check operational efficiency through investigation for loan system of sports promotion fund. The purposes of this paper are to present some directions for the improvement of efficiency by the analysis to public loan system using funds of other government organization and to the current status of loan system of sports promotion fund. The result of this study are as follows. First, we propose enlargement of loan size and range. Second, it is necessary to use mortgages loan to technology in case of sporting goods industry and sport service industry. Third, we suggest the mitigation of loan disproportion and flexible application among loam amount of sport industry areas. Fourth, we suggest the construction of loan practical committee. Finally we propose the establishment of selection criteria to firms and ex-post evaluation system related with loan system of sports promotion fund.

Spontaneous bone regeneration after surgical extraction of a horizontally impacted mandibular third molar: a retrospective panoramic radiograph analysis

  • Kim, Eugene;Eo, Mi Young;Nguyen, Truc Thi Hoang;Yang, Hoon Joo;Myoung, Hoon;Kim, Soung Min
    • Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
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    • v.41
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    • pp.4.1-4.10
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    • 2019
  • Background: The mandibular third molar (M3) is typically the last permanent tooth to erupt because of insufficient space and thick soft tissues covering its surface. Problems such as alveolar bone loss, development of a periodontal pocket, exposure of cementum, gingival recession, and dental caries can be found in the adjacent second molars (M2) following M3 extraction. The specific aims of the study were to assess the amount and rate of bone regeneration on the distal surface of M2 and to evaluate the aspects of bone regeneration in terms of varying degree of impaction. Methods: Four series of panoramic radiographic images were obtained from the selected cases, including images from the first visit, immediately after extraction, 6 weeks, and 6 months after extraction. ImageJ software® (NIH, USA) was used to measure linear distance from the region of interest to the distal root of the adjacent M2. Radiographic infrabony defect (RID) values were calculated from the measured radiographic bone height and cementoenamel junction with distortion compensation. Repeated measures of analysis of variance and one-way analysis of variance were conducted to analyze the statistical significant difference between RID and time, and a Spearman correlation test was conducted to assess the relationship between Pederson's difficulty index (DI) and RID. Results: A large RID (> 6 mm) can be reduced gradually and consistently over time. More than half of the samples recovered nearly to their normal healthy condition (RID ≤ 3 mm) by the 6-month follow-up. DI affected the first 6 weeks of post-extraction period and only showed a significant positive correlation with respect to the difference between baseline and final RID. Conclusions: Additional treatments on M2 for a minimum of 6 months after an M3 extraction could be recommended. Although DI may affect bone regeneration during the early healing period, further study is required to elucidate any possible factors associated with the healing process. The DI does not cause any long-term adverse effects on bone regeneration after surgical extraction.

Effectiveness of Public Credit Guarantee System and Its Coexistence with Market-based Finance Schemes (공적보증의 효과성과 시장기반 금융제도와의 공존)

  • Noh, Yong-Hwan;Hong, Jaekeun
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2016
  • Korean government had used public 'credit guarantee schemes' (CGS) as a counter-cyclical measure. However, it is still controversial about the effectiveness of policy financing on the SMEs. Criticism on policy financing involves the argument that supporting enterprises hampers competition and innovation of SMEs by increasing their dependence on the government and delays the exit of marginal firms. In this paper, we investigate how to effectively build up the rationale of running public CGSs. At the same time, we propose the ways to coexist of public credit guarantee and market-based private finance system for SMEs. First, CGS, as a counter-cyclical function, must coexist with the private financial system by compensating the market failure caused by pro-cyclical behavior of the private financial market. Second, CGS has the comparative advantages, compared to both the interest rate policy of the central bank and fiscal policy of the government. The credit guarantee is the symptomatic treatment that could revitalize the economy shortly by providing liquidity. Also, knowing that CGS is provided based on the leverage ratio defined by outstanding guarantee divided by capital fund, public 'credit guarantee' (CG) has an advantage that is free from the risk of government deficit. Third, the reason for existence of the CGS should be founded in supporting services for SMEs, available only in a public sector that is difficult to expect from private banks. In this regard, it is desirable to strengthen the publicness of credit guarantee over the support for start-ups, growing companies, the improvement of productivity, increase of exports, a long-term investment in facilities, the employment-creating businesses, and innovative enterprises.

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Engineering Approach to Crop Production in Space (우주에서 작물 생산을 위한 공학적 접근)

  • Kim Yong-Hyeon
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.218-231
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    • 2005
  • This paper reviews the engineering approach needed to support humans during their long-term missions in space. This approach includes closed plant production systems under microgravity or low pressure, mass recycling, air revitalization, water purification, waste management, elimination of trace contaminants, lighting, and nutrient delivery systems in controlled ecological life support system (CELSS). Requirements of crops f3r space use are high production, edibility, digestibility, many culinary uses, capability of automation, short stems, and high transpiration. Low pressure on Mars is considered to be a major obstacle for the design of greenhouses fer crop production. However interest in Mars inflatable greenhouse applicable to planetary surface has increased. Structure, internal pressure, material, method of lighting, and shielding are principal design parameters for the inflatable greenhouse. The inflatable greenhouse operating at low pressure can reduce the structural mass and atmosphere leakage rate. Plants growing at reduced pressure show an increasing transpiration rates and a high water loss. Vapor pressure increases as moisture is added to the air through transpiration or evaporation from leaks in the hydroponic system. Fluctuations in vapor pressure will significantly influence total pressure in a closed system. Thus hydroponic systems should be as tight as possible to reduce the quantity of water that evaporates from leaks. And the environmental control system to maintain high relative humidity at low pressure should be developed. The essence of technologies associated with CELSS can support human lift even at extremely harsh conditions such as in deserts, polar regions, and under the ocean on Earth as well as in space.

Characteristics of Creep Deformation Behavior of Granite under Uniaxial Compression (단축압축하중을 받는 대전 화강암의 크립 변형거동 특성에 관한 연구)

  • 홍지수;전석원
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2004
  • Investigation of the time-dependent behavior of rock and the associated mechanisms are of key interest in long-term stability analysis of many engineering applications. In this study, creep tests were performed on Daejeon granite samples of 25.4mm diameter under uniaxial compression at varying stress levels. The effect of moisture was investigated by testing both air-dried and fully water-saturated samples. The creep behavior of Daejeon granite exhibited three distinctive stages of primary, secondary and tertiary creep. The ultimate strength of granite under a constant stress decreased considerably with time. Saturation and immersion of the test specimen in water markedly increased the total creep strain as well as the secondary creep rate. The experimental creep curves are fitted to Burger's model as well as two other empirical models suggested by previous researchers. A number of the parameters determined for each model are dependent on stress and influenced by the presence of water. Based on the experimental results, an empirical relation between the applied stress and the time-dependent strain is established separately for each air-dried and fully water-saturated Daejeon granite.