• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.573-581
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• 2021

The current study analyzed the impacts of fiscal decentralization (FD) on the economic stability of Pakistan. This study used time series data from 1981 to 2017. The collected data was first passed through the unit root analysis. ARDL estimation techniques were employed to scrutinize the data where long-run associations were tested through Wald F-statistics. The long-run estimates were extracted by applying Ordinary Least Square, and error correction mechanisms were employed to find the speed of adjustment for disequilibria between the long and the short run. Wald F-statistics confirmed the existence of long-run cointegration. Long-run elasticities suggested that fiscal decentralization because of limited institutional capabilities of provincial governments failed in bringing stability in the economy of Pakistan. Similarly, transparency issues and misspecification of projects hinder the outcome of investment to stabilize the economy. High service payments on debt cut the amount that can be used for skills improvements and destabilize the economy. High Population growth puts pressure on infrastructure and reduces production capacity, ultimately destabilizing the economy by increasing unemployment and inflation. Based on these findings, the government is suggested to improve the institutional capacity of lower governments for the desired outcome of power devolution.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.24-36
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• 2018

Purpose - From establishing China-Japan diplomatic relations in 1972, the relations between two states has improved a lot, from which makes the government and the people reap much benefit. Owing to this reason, this paper aims at exploiting the impact of exchange rate volatility of RMB on China's foreign direct investment to Japan. Research design and methodology - The quarterly time series data from 2003 to 2016 will be employed to conduct an empirical analysis under the vector error correction model. Meanwhile, a menu of estimated methods such the Johansen co-integration test and the Granger Causality test will be also used to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility of RMB on China's foreign direct investment to Japan. Results - The empirical analysis results exhibit that the real exchange rate has a positive effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. Conversely, the real exchange rate volatility of RMB, the trade openness and the real GDP have a negative effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. However, in the short run, the China's foreign direct investment to Japan, the real exchange rate, the trade openness and the real GDP in period have a negative effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in period. Oppositely, the real exchange rate volatility of RMB in period has a positive effect on China's foreign direct investment to Japan in period. Conclusions - From the empirical evidences in this paper provided, it can be concluded that an increase in the exchange rate volatility of RMB can result in a decrease in the China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the long run. However, an increase in the exchange rate volatility of RMB can lead to an increase in the China's foreign direct investment to Japan in the short run. Therefore, the China's government should have a best control of the real exchange rate volatility of RMB so as to improve China's foreign direct investment to Japan.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.173-183
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• 2022

The objective of this research is to examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets in a few developing and developed countries. This study uses daily data from January 2020 to May 2021 and obtained from World Health Organization and Thomson Reuters. The secondary data was evaluated through panel econometric methodology that includes different unit root tests, and to analyze the long-run relationship between variables, panel cointegration techniques were applied. The long-run causality among variables was examined through Panel Vector Error Correction Model. The overall findings of this study suggest a long-run association exists between several cases and death with the stock returns of the GCC and other stock markets. Furthermore, the VECM model also identified a long-run causality running from COVID cases and death towards the stock rerun of both sets of stock markets. However, a subsequent Wald test yielded mixed results, indicating no short-run causality between cases and deaths and stock returns in both groups; however, in the case of GCC, several COVID-19 cases are having a causal impact on stock markets, which is notable in light of the fact that the death rate in GCC is significantly lower than in many developed and developing countries.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2001

The research on the price-volume relation in the market is very important because it examines into regular phenomenon revealed by market participants including producers and middlemen. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between price and trading volume in the oyster producing market. In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, the contents of empirical analysis include the time series properties of price and trading volume, the short-term and long-term relationships between price and trading volume, and the determinants of trading volume. The data used in this study correspond to daily price and trading volume covering the time period from January 1998 to April 2001. The empirical results can be summarized as follows : First, price and trading volume follow random walks and they are integrated of order 1. The first difference is necessary for satisfying the stationary conditions. Second, price and trading volume are cointegrated. This long-run relationship is stronger from trading volume to price. Third, error correction model suggests that feedback effect exists in the long-run and that price tends to lead trading volume by about five days in the short run, that is, to be required period by digging, conveying, and peeling oystershell for selling oyster. Fourth, price and price volatility is a determinant of trading volume. In particular, trading volume is a negative function of price. It is believed that the conclusion drawn from this study would provide a useful standard for the policy makers in charge of reducing the oyster price volatility risk caused by trading volume(selling quantities).

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.543-552
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• 2021

The study examines how foreign capital inflows affect stock market development in Pakistan for the period from July 2008 to June 2018. Several components of foreign capital inflows were used for empirical analysis, namely, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, and remittances. Further, market capitalization was used as a proxy for stock market development. The study uses an ARDL model for examining the long-run and short-run relationships between variables. We also analyze the bi-directional causality between the variables through the Granger causality test. Further, the presence of structural breaks was analyzed through the CUSUM and CUSUM Square test. The results suggest that in the long run, remittances have a positive and significant relationship with stock market development. However, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, and USD-PKR exchange rate do not have a significant impact on stock market development. The results also suggest that in the short run there is a negative relationship between FDI, USD-PKR exchange rate and market capitalization. Contrarily, we found a positive relationship between FPI and market capitalization. The results of Granger causality test suggest that remittances and USD-PKR exchange rate have a causal relationship with stock market development. Finally, we found no evidence of structural breaks in the dataset.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.625-633
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• 2021

Bangladesh's growing foreign aid has sparked controversy over whether it affects the country's economic performance. This review assesses foreign aid's influence on the country's economic growth with annual data covering the 1989-2018 period. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to achieve the research objective, and the empirical results indicate a substantial and robust impact of foreign assistance on economic growth. The outcome further reveal that domestic investment also contributes significantly to the country's economic evolution. However, trade openness plays a substantial positive role in the short run, although the impact is immaterial in the long run. The empirical findings indicate that the association between aid, domestic investment, and growth has a confident meaningful effect at 1 per cent level in the long run, whereas aid influences more than domestic investment. However, in the short run, aid, domestic investment, trade openness, and growth show positive and noteworthy response also at 1 percent level. This review undertakes a detailed analysis about the country's economic growth, and grounded on its outcome, this work suggests that focus should be placed more on creating domestic investment, promoting more export, and allocation of aid should be determined by the relative needs of the country.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.731-740
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• 2021

This research aims to investigate the determinants of real effective exchange rate in emerging ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The research was conducted by using quarterly time series data set from 1980Q1 to 2020Q3. Cointegration and the error correction model (ECM) methods were applied to test the long run and short run relationship of the real effective exchange rate and its determinants. The results indicate that the ratio of foreign direct investment to GDP and the government spending have significantly positive impact on real effective exchange rate in the Emerging ASEAN countries. The trade opening had influencing real effective exchange rate in most the Emerging ASEAN countries, except Vietnam. In addition, the international reserve (INR) had significant long-run impacts variables on real effective exchange rate in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. In the short run equilibrium, the error collection term suggest that Indonesia and Malaysia are the fastest speed adjustment to equilibrium. In addition, the term of trade influence the real effective exchange rate in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines but it is not in Thailand and Vietnam. However, FDI is a major factor of the real effective exchange rate in Vietnam, but not for other countries.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.8 no.7
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• pp.7-12
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• 2017

Purpose - This research examines the short-run and long-run effect of external shocks (oil price and exchange rate) on domestic food price in Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology - Three variables are used in this research. The variables are food price index, Rupiah's exchange rate of Indonesia, and crude oil price from 1998 until 2015 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results - The increasing of oil price and the depreciation of Rupiah's rate push the domestic food price in long-run, but do not impact significantly in short- term. The response of food price to oil prices shock and exchange rate shock are positive and persistent throughout the entire sample period. The exchange rate and oil price shocks have a small proportion explaining for the fluctuations of food price index but increasing over time. Conclusions - The policymaker should concern on solving the problem of oil price increase and depreciation of exchange rate on Indonesia's food price as they are important factors that can affect the price stability. The government should not rely on food imports because the price is strongly influenced by the movements in the exchange rate.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.52-65
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• 1984

In general precise estimation of hourly of daily distribution of the long-term run-off should be very important in a design of source of irrigation. However, there have not been a satisfying method for forecasting of stationar'y long-term run-off in Korea. Solving this problem, this study introduces unit-hydrograph method frequently used in short-term run-off analysis into the long-term run-off analysis, of which model basin was selected to be Sumgin-river catchment area. In the estimation of effective rainfall, conventional method neglects the Soil moisture condition of catchment area, but in this study, the initial discharge (qb) occurred just before rising phase of the hydrograph was selected as the index of a basin soil moisture condition and then introduced as 3rd variable in the analysis of the reationship between cumulative rainfall and cumulative loss of rainfall, which built a new type of separation method of effective rainfall. In next step, in order to normalize significant potential error included in hydrological data, especially in vast catchment area, Snyder's correlation method was applied. A key to solution in this study is multiple correlation method or multiple regressional analysis, which is primarily based on the method of least squres and which is solved by the form of systems of linear equations. And for verification of the change of characteristics of unit hydrograph according to the variation of a various kind of hydrological charateristics (for example, precipitation, tree cover, soil condition, etc),seasonal unit hydrograph models of dry season(autumn, winter), semi-dry season (spring), rainy season (summer) were made respectively. The results obtained in this study were summarized as follows; 1.During the test period of 1966-1971, effective rainfall was estimated for the total 114 run-off hydrograph. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation to the ovservation value was 6%, -which is mush smaller than 12% of the error of conventional method. 2.During the test period, daily distribution of long-term run-off discharge was estimated by the unit hydrograph model. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation by the application of standard unit hydrograph model was 12%. When estimating by each seasonal unit bydrograph model, the relative error was 14% during dry season 10% during semi-dry season and 7% during rainy season, which is much smaller than 37% of conventional method. Summing up the analysis results obtained above, it is convinced that qb-index method of this study for the estimation of effective rainfall be preciser than any other method developed before. Because even recently no method has been developed for the estimation of daily distribution of long-term run-off dicharge, therefore estimation value by unit hydrograph model was only compared with that due to kaziyama method which estimates monthly run-off discharge. However this method due to this study turns out to have high accuracy. If specially mentioned from the results of this study, there is no need to use each seasonal unit hydrograph model separately except the case of semi-dry season. The author hopes to analyze the latter case in future sudies.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.99-118
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• 2011

'Low Carbon, Green Growth' may be the achievable target in industry section, depending on whether less reliance on fossil-fuels use can bring higher productivity growth in the long run. This paper tests for the short-run and long-run effects of investment on energy-saving equipments on productivity growth in the Korean manufacturing industries. The investment in energy efficiency causes an increase in costs (measurement effect) in the short-run, but in the long-run likely improve energy intensity and reduce costs (positive real effect) despite the delay in new other investment for technical innovation (negative real effect). A 2SLS regression was attempted to deal with endogeneity of energy-saving investment. The productivity effects were tested for five manufacturing sub-industries showing relatively high energy intensity with annual time series data from 1982 through 2006. No productivity effects were accepted for all five sub-industries except Chemical products. Positive real effect was considered to be exceeded by negative real effect, resulting in decreased productivity growth for Chemical products.