• Journal of Power System Engineering
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.63-70
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• 2009

This paper discusses the influence on long-tenn predictions of the ship response in ocean by using the Global Wave Statistics data, GWS, and wave information from the remote sensing satellites. GWS's standard scatter diagrams of significant wave height and zero-crossing wave period are suggested to be corrected to a round number of 0.01/1000 fitted with a statistical analytic model of the conditional lognormal distribution for zero-crossing wave period. The GEOSAT satellite data are utilized which presented by I. R. Young and G. J. Holland (1996, named as GEOSAT data). At first, qualities of this data are investigated, and statistical characteristic trends are studied by means of applying known probability distribution functions. The wave height data of GEOSAT are compared to the data observed onboard merchant ships, the data observed by measure instrument installed on the ocean-going container ship and so on. To execute a long-tenn prediction of ship response, joint probability functions between wave height and wave period are introduced, therefore long-term statistical predictions are executed by using the functions.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.80-90
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• 1995

In this paper we consider a new estimator of mean residual life(MRL) under the random censorship model, based on the partial moment of the distribution. The parameters of a partial moment are estimated by its maximum likelihood estimators when the underlying distribution is known. Though the new estimator is not a consistent estimator of the MRL, it is shown to have smaller mean squared error than the well known empirical MRL estimator for a parametric family. We also compare the proposed estimator with some other estimators in terms of MSE for exponential and lognormal distributions using censored data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.145-157
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• 2004

Microscopic freeway simulation models project the uncertain values of performance measures for subject traffic conditions by explaining drivers' driving behavior with lane changing and car-following models. However, the existing lane changing models are limited to gap acceptance oriented passive behavior of drivers and not able to capture more-or-less aggressive driving behavior(e.g. cut-in lane changing) ordinarily obseved in field. This paper suggests the definition of cut-inlane changing and presents its characteristics based on the findings from two different freeway on- and off-ramp sections. In addition, this paper proposes a new lane changing model capable of handling both passive and active drivers' driving behavior for better performance of simulations. The proposed lane changing model was tested with Hanyang Simulatin (HYTSIM), a microscopic freeway simulation program developed for this study. The HYTSIM simulation results reflecting the performance of the proposed lane changing model were compared against the field data. The test results showed that the distribution of gaps collected when vehicles change lanes were statistically identical to the field data at 95% confidence level.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.15 no.5 s.66
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• pp.475-487
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• 2003

This study developed an analysis model of estimating fatigue damage using the linear elastic fracture mechanics method. Stress history occurring to an element when a truck passed over a bridge was defined as block loading and crack closure theory explaining load interaction effect was applied. Stress range frequency analysis considering dead load stress and crack opening was done. Probability of stress range frequency distribution was applied and the probability distribution parameters were estimated. The Monte Carlo simulation of generating the probability various of distribution was performed. The probability distribution of failure block numbers was obtained. With this the fatigue reliability of an element not occurring in failure could be calculated. The failure block number divided by average daily truck traffic remains the life of a day. Fatigue reliability analysis model was carried out for the welding member of cross beam flange and vertical stiffener of steel box bridge using the proposed model. Consequently, a 3.8% difference was observed between the remaining life in the peak analysis method and in the proposed analysis model. The proposed analysis model considered crack closure phase and crack retard.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.127-140
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• 2011

This paper presents an accelerated life test of aviation taxiway lights installed in the airport to help safe navigation of airplanes at night or in bad weather. Recently halogen lamps of taxiway lights are replaced by LED ones and their reliability needs yet to be verified. Thus, effective test conditions are designed reflecting the failure modes and mechanisms from the previous studies on LED, which include the accelerated degradation process. The test is performed under the temperature $70^{\circ}C$ and $90^{\circ}C$ for two types of LED lights, taxiway center line lights(TCLL) and taxiway edge lights (TEDL). The failure time data were analyzed using lognormal distribution and Arrhenius model to find the life-stress relationship, acceleration factor and life characteristics under the normal condition temperature $30^{\circ}C$.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.281-291
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• 2011

This paper presents an accelerated life test of booster pump for home water purifier. The failure analysis shows that decreased flux due to the plastic deformation of bypass spring adjusting pressure is the predominant failure mechanism. An accelerated life test is designed and implemented to estimate the lifetime of the booster pump. Temperature, water pressure and voltage are selected as accelerating variables through the technical review about failure mechanism. It is assumed that the lifetimes of booster pumps follow lognormal distribution and the combination model of temperature and non-thermal stresses holds. The life-stress relationship, acceleration factor, and $B_{10}$ life at design condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.119-130
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• 2001

At-site and regional frequency analyses of annual maximum 1-, 2-, and 3-days rainfall in Han River basin was performed and compared based on the regional L-moments algorithm. To perform regional frequency analysis, Han River basin was subdivided into 3 sub-basins such as South Han River, North Han River, and downstream regions. For each sub-basin, the discordancy and homogeneity tests were performed. As the results of goodness of fit tests, lognormal model was selected as an appropriate probability distribution for both South Han River and downstream regions and gamma-3 model for North han River region. From Monte carlo simulation, RBIAS and RRMSE of the estimated quantiles from regional frequency analysis and at-site frequency analysis were calculated and compared each other. Regional frequency analysis shows less RRMSE of the estimated quantiles than at-sites frequency analysis in overall return periods. The differences of BRMSE between two approaches increase as the return period increases. As a result, it is shown that regional frequency analysis performs better than at-site analysis for annual maximum rainfall data in Han River basin.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.455-464
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• 2009

Lee(2009) proposed the boundary-adaptive despeckling method using a Bayesian model which is based on the lognormal distribution for image intensity and a Markov random field(MRF) for image texture. This method employs the Point-Jacobian iteration to obtain a maximum a posteriori(MAP) estimate of despeckled imagery. The boundary-adaptive algorithm is designed to use less information from more distant neighbors as the pixel is closer to boundary. It can reduce the possibility to involve the pixel values of adjacent region with different characteristics. The boundary-adaptive scheme was comprehensively evaluated using simulation data and the effectiveness of boundary adaption was proved in Lee(2009). This study, as an extension of Lee(2009), has suggested a modified iteration algorithm of MAP estimation to enhance computational efficiency and to combine classification. The experiment of simulation data shows that the boundary-adaption results in yielding clear boundary as well as reducing error in classification. The boundary-adaptive scheme has also been applied to high resolution Terra-SAR data acquired from the west coast of Youngjong-do, and the results imply that it can improve analytical accuracy in SAR application.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.245-251
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• 2005

When we design coastal and harbol facilities deepwater design wave and wind speed are the important design parameters. Especially, the analysis of these informations is a vital step for the point of disaster prevention. In this study, we made and an extreme value analysis using a series of deep water significant wave data arranged in the 16 direction and supplied by KORDI real-time wave information system ,and the wind data gained from Wan-Do whether Station 1978-2003. The probability distributions considered in this characteristic analysis were the Weibull, the Gumbel, the Log-Pearson Type III, the Normal, the Lognormal, and the Gamma distribution. The parameter for each distribution was estimated by three methods, i.e. the method of moments, the maximum likelihood, and the method of probability weight moments. Furthermore, probability distributions for the extreme data had been selected by using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test within significant level of 5%, i,e. 95% reliance level. From this study we found that Gumbel distribution is the most proper model for the deep water design wave height off the southwest coast of Korea. However the result shows that the proper distribution made for the selected site is varied in each extreme data set.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.309-323
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• 2024

The gust factor and turbulence intensity are two crucial parameters that characterize the properties of turbulence. In tropical cyclones (TCs), these parameters exhibit significant variability, yet there is a lack of established formulas to account for their probabilistic characteristics with consideration of their inherent connection. On this condition, a probabilistic analysis of gust factors and turbulence intensities of TCs is conducted based on fourteen sets of wind data collected at the Sutong Cable-stayed Bridge site. Initially, the turbulence intensities and gust factors of recorded data are computed, followed by an analysis of their probability densities across different ranges categorized by mean wind speed. The Gaussian, lognormal, and generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions are employed to fit the measured probability densities, with subsequent evaluation of their effectiveness. The Gumbel distribution, which is a specific instance of the GEV distribution, has been identified as an optimal choice for probabilistic characterizations of turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. The corresponding empirical models are then established through curve fitting. By utilizing the Gumbel distribution as a template, the nexus between the probability density functions of turbulence intensity and gust factor is built, leading to the development of a generalized probabilistic model that statistically describe turbulence intensity and gust factor in TCs. Finally, these empirical models are validated using measured data and compared with suggestions recommended by specifications.