• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.139-151
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• 1992

A reservoir operation model was established under the varying restricted water level(r.w.l.) subject to the inflow distributions in flood period. The optimization model consists of 2 sub-models. One model minimizes deviations of releases from the expected release and the other minimizes capacity requirement for flood control. In order to make deterministic equivalents, the inflow distribution of reservoir is assumed to be 2-parameter Lognormal, and its parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The model is applied to joint operation of Soyang and Chungju dam. The results show that Soyang was designed for larger flood event than that for Chungju. The operation under the varying r.w.l. turns out to be more effective than one under the uniform r.w.l. Such effect is more obvious at Chungju compared with Soyang. Release pattern shows diminishing and delaying effect in a period of high inflows and larger discharges than actual in a period of low inflows.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2022

A weighted linear combination of seismic fragility models previously developed for cut-and-cover railway tunnels was presented and the appropriateness of the combined model was evaluated. The seismic fragility function is expressed in the form of a cumulative probability function of the lognormal distribution based on the peak ground acceleration. The model uncertainty can be reduced by combining models independently developed. Equal weight is applied to four models. The new seismic fragility function was developed for each damage level by determining the median and standard deviation, which are model metrics. Comparing fragility curves developed for other bored tunnels, cut-and-cover tunnels for high-speed railway system have a similar level of fragility. We postulated that this is due to the high seismic design standard for high-speed railway tunnel.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.143-147
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• 2010

Chronic exposure to Arsenic (As) causes significant human health effects including various cancers. Total As concentrations from 300 polished rice samples cultivated near the mining areas in Korea were analyzed to estimate a probabilistic assessment of human health risk from As-contaminated rice. The mean of total As concentrations in rice was 0.09 mg/kg and lognormal distribution model was set for total As concentrations. Human health risk for As in rice was estimated using gender-specific rice consumption data and average daily dose (ADD). While cancer risk (CR) and hazard quotient (HQ) were calculated using oral cancer slope factor (OCSF) and Reference dose (RfD) suggested by the U.S. EPA. Mean of CR posed by total As was 2.16 (for male) and 1.83 (for female) per 10,000. The HQ for general population from rice cultivated near the mining areas in Korea was below 1 as the $50^{th}$ percentile of general population. However, less than 10% of general population consuming rice cultivated near the mining areas would exceed 1.0. This result is similar with those from each gender-specific group.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.27-44
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• 1986

The measured soil data are analyzed to the descriptive statistics and classified into the four models of uncorrelated-normal (UNNO), uncorrelated-nonnormal (VNNN), correlatedonnormal(CONN), and correlated-nonnormal(CONN) . This paper presents the comparisons of reliability index and check points using the advanced first-order second-moment method with respect to the four models as well as BASIC Program. A sin91e-mode Performance function is consisted of the basic design variables of bearing capacity and settlements on shallow foundations and input the above analyzed soil informations. The main conclusions obtained in this study are summarized as follows: 1. In the bearing capacity mode, cohesion and bearing-capacity factors by C-U test are accepted for normal and lognormal distribution, respectively, and negatively low correlated to each other. Since the reliability index of the CONN model is the lowest one of the four model, which could be recommended a reliability.based design, whereas the other model might overestimate the geotechnical conditions. 2. In the case of settlements mode, the virgin compression ratio and preccnsolidation pressure are fitted for normal and lognormal distribution, respectively. Constraining settlements to the lower ones computed by deterministic method, The CONN model is the lowest reliability of the four models.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.477-483
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• 2021

In a military maintenance system, the standard maintenance man-hour of weapon systems is a tool to estimate the maintenance capabilities of maintenance units, provide standards for determining the maintenance needs and workload, and provide basic data for establishing a maintenance plan. The standard maintenance man-hours of major weapon systems have already been derived and used, but the standard maintenance man-hour in a wartime maintenance environment has not been computed. Therefore, the standard wartime maintenance man-hours need to be derived and This study proposes a process and method of computing the maintenance man-hours. In addition, this work suggests the criteria of collecting and screening data that is necessary for estimating the standard maintenance man-hours and introduces a methodology for analyzing the characteristics of maintenance man-hour distribution in the process. The proposed process first designs a model that reflects the wartime maintenance environment, selects statistical techniques, collects maintenance data, analyzes the descriptive statistics, estimates the distribution, and finally presents representative values of maintenance man-hour. Based on the proposed method, the standard wartime maintenance man-hours of the four weapon systems were calculated, and the distribution of the maintenance man-hours was analyzed to follow a lognormal distribution, and the method presented reliable results.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-25
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• 2016

This study investigated the variability of WTP estimates(i.e. mean or median) with ad hoc assumptions of specific parametric probability distributions(i.e. normal, logistic, lognormal, and exponential distribution) to estimate WTP function using dichotomous choice CV data on mortality risk reduction. From the perspective of policy decision, the variability of these WTP estimates are intolerable in comparison with those of Turnbull nonparametric estimation method which is free from ad hoc distribution assumptions. The Turnbull nonparametric estimation can avoid a kind of misspecification bias due to ad hoc assumption of specific parametric distributions. Furthermore, the WTP estimates by Turnbull nonparametric estimation are robust because the similar estimates are elicited from a dichotomous choice or double dichotomous choice CV data, and the statistically significant WTP estimates can be obtained even though it is not possible by parametric estimation methods. If there are considerable variability among those WTP estimates by parametric estimation methods in condition with no criteria of model adequacy, the mean WTPs from Turnbull nonparametric estimation can be the robust estimates without ad hoc assumptions, which can avoid controversial issues in the perspective of policy decisions.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.725-736
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• 2017

This paper presents the two-, three-, and four-lane transverse reduction factor based on FEA method, probability theory, and the recently actual traffic flow data. A total of 72 composite girder bridges with various spans, number of lanes, loading mode, and bridge type are analyzed with time-varying static load FEA method by ANSYS, and the probability models of vehicle load effects at arbitrary-time point are developed. Based on these probability models, in accordance to the principle of the same exceeding probability, the multi-lane transverse reduction factor of these composite girder bridges and the relationship between the multi-lane transverse reduction factor and the span of bridge are determined. Finally, the multi-lane transverse reduction factor obtained is compared with those from AASHTO LRFD, BS5400, JTG D60 or Eurocode. The results show that the vehicle load effect at arbitrary-time point follows lognormal distribution. The two-, three-, and four-lane transverse reduction factors calculated by using FEA method and probability respectively range between 0.781 and 1.027, 0.616 and 0.795, 0.468 and 0.645. Furthermore, a correlation between the FEA and AASHTO LRFD, BS5400, JTG D60 or Eurocode transverse reduction factors is made for composite girder bridges. For the two-, three-, and four-lane bridge cases, the Eurocode code underestimated the FEA transverse reduction factors by 27%, 25% and 13%, respectively. This underestimation is more pronounced in short-span bridges. The AASHTO LRFD, BS5400 and JTG D60 codes overestimated the FEA transverse reduction factors. The FEA results highlight the importance of considering span length in determining the multi-lane transverse reduction factors when designing two-lane or more composite girder bridges. This paper will assist bridge engineers in quantifying the adjustment factors used in analyzing and designing multi-lane composite girder bridges.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.223-232
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• 2017

Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.699-712
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• 1996

Field scale experiments using an automated 144-channel TDR system were conducted which monitored the movement of solute through unsaturated loamy soils. The experiments were carried out on two different field plots of 0.54 ha to study the vertical movement of solute plume created by applying a square pulse of $CaCl_2$ as a tracer. The residence concentration was monitored at 24 locations on a transect and 5 depths per location by horizontally-positioning 50 cm long triple wire TDR probes to study the heterogeneity of solute travel times and the governing transport concept at field scale. This paper describes details of experimental methodology and calibration aspects of the TDR system. Three different calibration methods for estimation of solute concentration from TDR-measured bulk soil electrical conductivity were used for each field site. Data analysis of mean breakthrough curves (BTCs) and parameters estimated using the convection-dispersion model (CDE) and the convective-lognormal transfer function model (CLT) reveals that the automated TDR system is a viable technique to study the field scale solute transport providing a normal distribution of resident concentration in a high resolution of time series, and that calibration method does not significantly affect both the shape of BTC and the parameters related to the peak travel time. Among the calibration methods, the simple linear model (SLM), a modified version of Rhoades' model, appears to be promising in the calibration of horizontally-positioned TDR probes at field condition.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.125-148
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• 1993

Groundwater flow in fractured rock masses is controlled by combined effects of fracture networks, state of geostafic stresses and crossflow between fractures and rock matrix. Furthermore the scaie dependent, anisotropic properties of hydraulic parameters results mainly from irregular paftems of fracture system, which can not be evaluated properly with the methods available at present. The basic assumpfion of discrete fracture network model is that groundwater flows only along discrete fractures and the flow paths in rock mass are determined by geometric paftems of interconnected fractures. The characteristics of fracture distribution in space and fracture hydraulic parameters are represented as the probability density functions by stochastic simulation. The discrete fracture network modelling was aftempted to characterize the groundwater flow in the vicinity of existing large cavems located in Wonjeong-ri, Poseung-myon, Pyeungtaek-kun. The fracture data of $1\textrm{km}^2$ area were analysed. The result indicates that the fracture sets evaluated from an equal area projection can be grouped into 6 sets and the fracture sizes are distributed in longnormal. The conductive fracture density of set 1 shows the highest density of 0.37. The groundwater inflow into a carvem was calculated as 29ton/day with the fracture transmissivity of $10^{-8}\textrm{m}^2/s$. When the fracture transmissivity increases in an order, the inflow amount estimated increases dramatically as much as fold, i.e 651 ton/day. One of the great advantages of this model is a forward modelling which can provide a thinking tool for site characterization and allow to handle the quantitative data as well as qualitative data.