• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.121-130
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• 2024

As internet and communication technology (ICT) is improved exponentially, types and amount of available data also increase. Even though data analysis including statistics is significant to utilize this large amount of data, there are inevitable limits to process various and complex data in general way. Meanwhile, there are many attempts to apply machine learning (ML) in various fields to solve the problems according to the enhancement in computational performance and increase in demands for autonomous systems. Especially, data processing for the model input and designing the model to solve the objective function are critical to achieve the model performance. Data processing methods according to the type and property have been presented through many studies and the performance of ML highly varies depending on the methods. Nevertheless, there are difficulties in deciding which data processing method for data analysis since the types and characteristics of data have become more diverse. Specifically, multi-variate data processing is essential for solving non-linear problem based on ML. In this paper, we present a multi-variate tabular data processing scheme for ML-aided data analysis by using Titanic dataset from Kaggle including various kinds of data. We present the methods like input variable filtering applying statistical analysis and normalization according to the data property. In addition, we analyze the data structure using visualization. Lastly, we design an ML model and train the model by applying the proposed multi-variate data process. After that, we analyze the passenger's survival prediction performance of the trained model. We expect that the proposed multi-variate data processing and visualization can be extended to various environments for ML based analysis.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.325-341
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• 2024

This study examined how specific aspects of epistemic cognition are developed in elementary students during modeling activities, using the Apt-AIR framework. The study focused on a class unit titled 'Shall We Find Out What the Landscape of a Riverside Looks Like?' which is part of the land chapter in the third-grade Korean elementary science curriculum. Ambitious Science Teaching (AST) was applied as a teaching strategy to enhance students' model construction. Seven science classes were conducted in line with the core practices of AST, with 29 elementary school students participating in the study. The classes were organized into four stages: initial model composition, inquiry activity, group model composition-sharing, and final model construction. The class activities at each stage were analyzed using both the AIR model, i.e., epistemic aim and value (A), epistemic ideals (I), and reliable epistemic processes (R), and the multi-faceted framework for epistemic thinking from the Apt-AIR framework. The results of the study revealed that in science classes emphasizing modeling activities based on the core practices of AST, the elementary students progressively developed more sophisticated explanatory models that included causal relationships explaining the topographic differences between the upstream and downstream sections of a river. This result was due to their engagement in constructing initial models to describe phenomena, supplementing the initial models using data collected in the model experiment, and participating in discussions to share and evaluate group models. Additionally, from the perspective of the Apt-AIR framework, the aspects of epistemic cognition demonstrated by the elementary students in their modeling activities were appropriate for engaging with cognitive processes related to epistemic aims and values, epistemic ideals, and reliable processes. The other four aspects of the Apt-AIR framework, however, were not performed as effectively. In particular, the application of reliable epistemic processes for knowledge construction required more improvement.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.407-416
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• 2024

Over the past 20 years, there has been a rapid increase in the number and size of subway stations and underground structures worldwide, and the importance of safety for subway users has also continuously grown. Subway stations, due to their structural characteristics, have limited visibility and escape routes in disaster situations, posing a high risk of human casualties and economic losses. Therefore, an analysis of disaster vulnerabilities is essential not only for existing subway systems but also for deep underground facilities like GTX. This paper presents a case study applying a betweenness centrality-based disaster vulnerability analysis framework to the case of Gwanggyo Central Station. The analysis of Gwanggyo Central Station's base model and various disaster scenarios revealed that the betweenness centrality distribution is symmetrical, following the symmetrical spatial structure of the station, with high centrality concentrated in the central areas of basement levels one and two. These areas exhibited values more than 220% above the average, indicating a high likelihood of bottleneck phenomena during evacuation in disaster situations. To mitigate this vulnerability, scenarios were proposed to distribute evacuation flows concentrated in the central areas, enhancing the usability of peripheral areas as evacuation routes by connecting staircases continuously. This modification, when considered, showed a decrease in centrality concentration, confirming that the proposed addition of evacuation paths could effectively contribute to dispersing the flow of evacuation in Gwanggyo Central Station. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework for assessing evacuation vulnerability in enhancing subway station user safety and can be effectively applied in disaster response and management plans for major underground facilities.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.397-416
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• 2024

This study assessed the hydrogeological properties of the deep geological environment to develop safety criteria for the natural barriers used in the deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Korea. The assessment focused on the distribution and trends of hydraulic conductivity and permeability properties appropriate for the domestic geological environment, using various in-situ hydraulic test data collected for groundwater development and management. To develop a depth-hydrogeological property relationship model suitable for domestic conditions, the study reviewed various international research examples and applied a representative model that explains the trends of hydraulic conductivity and permeability with depth. The development of the model suitable for Korea involved applying ensemble regression analysis to account for the uncertainty of various factors in the collected data. The results confirmed that existing international depth-hydrogeological property relationship models adequately describe the characteristics of the domestic geological environment. Considering the preferred hydrogeological criteria suggested by countries like Sweden, Germany, and Canada, there is a high likelihood that a suitable geological environment exists in Korea. Additionally, the application of hydrogeological criteria indicative of low-permeability environments showed that suitable conditions for disposal construction increase at depths greater than 300 m, where the influence of fractures on groundwater flow might be minimal at depths exceeding 500 m. This research can serve as foundational information for establishing hydrogeological safety standards for natural barriers in Korea according to international regulatory guidelines.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.384-395
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• 2023

Since transpiration plays a key role in optimal irrigation management, knowledge of the irrigation demand of crops like tomatoes, which are highly susceptible to water stress, is necessary. One way to determine irrigation demand is to measure transpiration, which is affected by environmental factor or growth stage. This study aimed to estimate the transpiration amount of tomatoes and find a suitable model using mathematical and deep learning models using minute-by-minute data. Pearson correlation revealed that observed environmental variables significantly correlate with crop transpiration. Inside air temperature and outside radiation positively correlated with transpiration, while humidity showed a negative correlation. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression model, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Long short-term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models were built and compared their accuracies. All models showed potential in estimating transpiration with R² values ranging from 0.770 to 0.948 and RMSE of 0.495 mm/min to 1.038 mm/min in the test dataset. Deep learning models outperformed the mathematical models; the GRU demonstrated the best performance in the test data with 0.948 R² and 0.495 mm/min RMSE. The LSTM and ANN closely followed with R² values of 0.946 and 0.944, respectively, and RMSE of 0.504 m/min and 0.511, respectively. The GRU model exhibited superior performance in short-term forecasts while LSTM for long-term but requires verification using a large dataset. Compared to the FAO56 Penman-Monteith (PM) equation, PM has a lower RMSE of 0.598 mm/min than MLR and Polynomial models degrees 2 and 3 but performed least among all models in capturing variability in transpiration. Therefore, this study recommended GRU and LSTM models for short-term estimation of tomato transpiration in greenhouses.

• Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.5-18
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• 2024

Chemical oxygen demand (COD), an organic material measurement index, has a limit to the management of the total amount of all organic materials including non-degradable organic materials due to low oxidation rate. So total organic carbon (TOC) that can measure organic materials more accurately is introduced and used as a measurement index. Several environmental companies including company A in Gyeonggi-do dilute raw wastewater first and then treats it with chemicals. And an activated carbon is used at the rear stage to treat total organic carbon even though various treatment processes can be applied to reduce TOC in wastewater. There are some problems such as use of a lot of diluting water and generation of an excessive amount of sludge, so it is urgent to come up with an alternative plan. Therefore, in this study, an application experiment was conducted on two different methods for improving the TOC reduction efficiency of waste water from Company A. The first method is the evaluation of the substitution potential of powered activated carbon(PAC), an adsorbent currently used, by manufacturing cellulose-based graphene like carbon (CGLC). This first study showed that CGLC had about 10% higher TOC adsorption efficiency than commercial PAC, showing the possibility of being applied as an alternative adsorbent for PAC in water treatment sites. The second method relates to the removal of TOC by sulfate radials produced by persulfate (PS) activation. Two activation methods were applied: using CGLC and PAC as carbon-based catalyst and using the high temperature of wastewater for PS activation. As a result of using PAC and CGLC as PS activation materials, the TOC removal rate was lower than the adsorption amount of TOC by CGLC and PAC due to excessive chlorine ions present in the real wastewater. However, as a result of using the high water temperature (55~60℃) of the field wastewater for PS activation, it showed a much greater TOC removal efficiency than PAC alone, CGLC alone, and using a carbon-based catalyst for PS activation. When PS was injected more than 0.5%, it showed a TOC removal efficiency of 95% or more within 24 hr. In addition, when PS was injected more than 0.3%, the TOC concentration could be lowered to less than 75 ppm, which is the wastewater discharge standard applied to company A. When these results were summarized, raw wastewater of high temperature can be treated with a simple process of only adding of PS and discharged by treating TOC below the wastewater discharge standard applied to company A.

• Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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• v.68 no.5
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• pp.259-273
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• 2024

This study aimed to investigate changes in metamodeling recognition among chemistry teachers through a teacher educational program related to redox models and water electrolysis experiments. To this end, a science model education program was developed for 9 chemistry teachers and conducted over 10 lessons for a total of 40 hours. In addition, a pre- and post-survey was administered to determine teachers' metamodeling recognition in non-contextual and contextual situations. As a result of the study, through the science model education program, teachers showed educational effects in both non-contextual and contextual situations. In the case of non-contextual situations, the stages of scientific metamodeling knowledge development of chemistry teachers came out differently depending on the type of question. For example, the nature or purpose of the model, the modeling process, or the evaluation and improvement of the model improved from low to high, but there was no significant change because the perception of model change and diversity was already high in advance. In the case of contextual situations, the stage of scientific metamodeling knowledge development improved from objectivity to subjectivity in both the redox model theory class and the water electrolysis model experiment class. Therefore, through the 5E circular learning model-based education program, chemistry teachers' perception of metamodeling was clearly improved. However, the modeling activities of teachers in the water electrolysis model experiment class were different from the change in metamodeling perception. The types that teachers selected as additional experiments for modeling were analyzed in two ways. The first type is when they are interested in finding an ideal condition in which the ratio of hydrogen and oxygen gas is close to 2:1 through additional experiments. The second type is when additional experiments are designed with interest in why the experimental results are coming out like that. It was analyzed that the second type was the experiment necessary for modeling. In addition, modeling activities were analyzed into two types. The first was a type in which water molecules were directly decomposed in two electrodes to generate hydrogen and oxygen gas. This type was the case of regression to the textbook model regardless of the experimental results, and 6 chemistry teachers out of 8 were analyzed as this type. The second type was the type in which water reacted at the (+) electrode to generate other substances, and hydrogen ions reacted at the (-) electrode to generate hydrogen gas. Teachers who performed these modeling activities corresponded to the second type in additional experiments, and 2 chemistry teachers out of 8 corresponded to this. Therefore, it is necessary to provide an experience of activities corresponding to the second type of experiment and modeling through an educational program that provides an experience of directly modeling through experiments in order to develop modeling capabilities, unlike the development of metamodeling knowledge.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.215-235
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• 1996

The thermal analysis by mathematical model simulation makes it possible to reasonably predict heating and/or cooling requirements of certain greenhouses located under various geographical and climatic environment. It is another advantages of model simulation technique to be able to make it possible to select appropriate heating system, to set up energy utilization strategy, to schedule seasonal crop pattern, as well as to determine new greenhouse ranges. In this study, the control pattern for greenhouse microclimate is categorized as cooling and heating. Dynamic model was adopted to simulate heating requirements and/or energy conservation effectiveness such as energy saving by night-time thermal curtain, estimation of Heating Degree-Hours(HDH), long time prediction of greenhouse thermal behavior, etc. On the other hand, the cooling effects of ventilation, shading, and pad ||||&|||| fan system were partly analyzed by static model. By the experimental work with small size model greenhouse of 1.2m$\times$2.4m, it was found that cooling the greenhouse by spraying cold water directly on greenhouse cover surface or by recirculating cold water through heat exchangers would be effective in greenhouse summer cooling. The mathematical model developed for greenhouse model simulation is highly applicable because it can reflects various climatic factors like temperature, humidity, beam and diffuse solar radiation, wind velocity, etc. This model was closely verified by various weather data obtained through long period greenhouse experiment. Most of the materials relating with greenhouse heating or cooling components were obtained from model greenhouse simulated mathematically by using typical year(1987) data of Jinju Gyeongnam. But some of the materials relating with greenhouse cooling was obtained by performing model experiments which include analyzing cooling effect of water sprayed directly on greenhouse roof surface. The results are summarized as follows : 1. The heating requirements of model greenhouse were highly related with the minimum temperature set for given greenhouse. The setting temperature at night-time is much more influential on heating energy requirement than that at day-time. Therefore It is highly recommended that night- time setting temperature should be carefully determined and controlled. 2. The HDH data obtained by conventional method were estimated on the basis of considerably long term average weather temperature together with the standard base temperature(usually 18.3$^{\circ}C$). This kind of data can merely be used as a relative comparison criteria about heating load, but is not applicable in the calculation of greenhouse heating requirements because of the limited consideration of climatic factors and inappropriate base temperature. By comparing the HDM data with the results of simulation, it is found that the heating system design by HDH data will probably overshoot the actual heating requirement. 3. The energy saving effect of night-time thermal curtain as well as estimated heating requirement is found to be sensitively related with weather condition: Thermal curtain adopted for simulation showed high effectiveness in energy saving which amounts to more than 50% of annual heating requirement. 4. The ventilation performances doting warm seasons are mainly influenced by air exchange rate even though there are some variations depending on greenhouse structural difference, weather and cropping conditions. For air exchanges above 1 volume per minute, the reduction rate of temperature rise on both types of considered greenhouse becomes modest with the additional increase of ventilation capacity. Therefore the desirable ventilation capacity is assumed to be 1 air change per minute, which is the recommended ventilation rate in common greenhouse. 5. In glass covered greenhouse with full production, under clear weather of 50% RH, and continuous 1 air change per minute, the temperature drop in 50% shaded greenhouse and pad ＆ fan systemed greenhouse is 2.6$^{\circ}C$ and.6.1$^{\circ}C$ respectively. The temperature in control greenhouse under continuous air change at this time was 36.6$^{\circ}C$ which was 5.3$^{\circ}C$ above ambient temperature. As a result the greenhouse temperature can be maintained 3$^{\circ}C$ below ambient temperature. But when RH is 80%, it was impossible to drop greenhouse temperature below ambient temperature because possible temperature reduction by pad ||||&|||| fan system at this time is not more than 2.4$^{\circ}C$. 6. During 3 months of hot summer season if the greenhouse is assumed to be cooled only when greenhouse temperature rise above 27$^{\circ}C$, the relationship between RH of ambient air and greenhouse temperature drop($\Delta$T) was formulated as follows : $\Delta$T= -0.077RH＋7.7 7. Time dependent cooling effects performed by operation of each or combination of ventilation, 50% shading, pad ＆ fan of 80% efficiency, were continuously predicted for one typical summer day long. When the greenhouse was cooled only by 1 air change per minute, greenhouse air temperature was 5$^{\circ}C$ above outdoor temperature. Either method alone can not drop greenhouse air temperature below outdoor temperature even under the fully cropped situations. But when both systems were operated together, greenhouse air temperature can be controlled to about 2.0-2.3$^{\circ}C$ below ambient temperature. 8. When the cool water of 6.5-8.5$^{\circ}C$ was sprayed on greenhouse roof surface with the water flow rate of 1.3 liter/min per unit greenhouse floor area, greenhouse air temperature could be dropped down to 16.5-18.$0^{\circ}C$, whlch is about 1$0^{\circ}C$ below the ambient temperature of 26.5-28.$0^{\circ}C$ at that time. The most important thing in cooling greenhouse air effectively with water spray may be obtaining plenty of cool water source like ground water itself or cold water produced by heat-pump. Future work is focused on not only analyzing the feasibility of heat pump operation but also finding the relationships between greenhouse air temperature(T$_{g}$ ), spraying water temperature(T$_{w}$ ), water flow rate(Q), and ambient temperature(T$_{o}$).

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.52 no.1
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• pp.58-71
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• 1981

Thecodiplosis japonesis is sweeping the Pinus densiflora forests from south-west to north-east direction, destroying almost all the aged large trees as well as even the young ones. The front line of infestation is moving slowly but ceaselessly norhwards as a long bottle front. Estimation is that more than 40 percent of the area of P. densiflora forest has been damaged already, however some individuals could escapes from the damage and contribute to restore the site to the previous vegetation composition. When the stands were attacked by this insect, the drastic openings of the upper story of tree canopy formed by exclusively P. densiflora are usually resulted and some environmental factors such as light, temperature, litter accumulation, soil moisture and offers were naturally modified. With these changes after insect invasion, as the time passes, phytosociologic changes of the vegetation are gradually proceeding. If we select the forest according to four categories concerning the history of the insect outbreak, namely, non-attacked (healthy forest), recently damaged (the outbreak occured about 1-2 years ago), severely damaged (occured 5-6 years ago), damage prolonged (occured 10 years ago) and restored (occured about 20 years ago), any directional changes of vegetation composition could be traced these in line with four progressive stages. To elucidate these changes, three survey districts; (1) "Gongju" where the damage was severe and it was outbroken in 1977, (2) "Buyeo" where damage prolonged and (3) "Gochang" as restored, were set, (See Tab. 1). All these were located in the south temperate forest zone which was delimited mainly due to the temporature factor and generally accepted without any opposition at present. In view of temperature, the amount and distribution of precipitation and various soil factor, the overall homogeneity of environmental conditions between survey districts might be accepted. However this did not mean that small changes of edaphic and topographic conditions and microclimates can induce any alteration of vegetation patterns. Again four survey plots were set in each district and inter plot distance was 3 to 4 km. And again four subplots were set within a survey plot. The size of a subplot was $10m{\times}10m$ for woody vegetation and $5m{\times}5m$ for ground cover vegetation which was less than 2 m high. The nested quadrat method was adopted. In sampling survey plots, the followings were taken into account: (1) Natural growth having more than 80 percent of crown density of upper canopy and more than 5 hectares of area. (2) Was not affected by both natural and artificial disturbances such as fire and thinning operation for the past three decades. (3) Lower than 500 m of altitude (4) Less than 20 degrees of slope, and (5) Northerly sited aspect. An intensive vegetation survey was undertaken during the summer of 1980. The vegetation was devided into 3 categories for sampling; the upper layer (dominated mainly by the pine trees), the middle layer composed by oak species and other broad-leaved trees as well as the pine, and the ground layer or the lower layer (shrubby form of woody plants). In this study our survey was concentrated on woody species only. For the vegetation analysis, calculated were values of intensity, frequency, covers, relative importance, species diversity, dominance and similarity and dissimilasity index when importance values were calculated, different relative weights as score were arbitrarily given to each layer, i.e., 3 points for the upper layer, 2 for the middle layer and 1 for the ground layer. Then the formula becomes as follows; $$R.I.V.=\frac{3(IV\;upper\;L.)+2(IV.\;middle\;L.)+1(IV.\;ground\;L.)}{6}$$ The values of Similarity Index were calculated on the basis of the Relative Importance Value of trees (sum of relative density, frequency and cover). The formula used is; $$S.I.=\frac{2C}{S_1+S_2}{\times}100=\frac{2C}{100+100}{\times}100=C(%)$$ Where: C = The sum of the lower of the two quantitative values for species shared by the two communities. $S_1$ = The sum of all values for the first community. $S_2$ = The sum of all values for the second community. In Tab. 3, the species composition of each plot by layer and by district is presented. Without exception, the species formed the upper layer of stands was Pinus densiflora. As seen from the table, the relative cover (%), density (number of tree per $500m^2$), the range of height and diameter at brest height and cone bearing tendency were given. For the middle layer, Quercus spp. (Q. aliena, serrata, mongolica, accutissina and variabilis) and Pinus densiflora were dominating ones. Genus Rhodedendron and Lespedeza were abundant in ground vegetation, but some oaks were involved also. (1) Gongju district The total of woody species appeared in this district was 26 and relative importance value of Pinus densiflora for the upper layer was 79.1%, but in the middle layer, the R.I.V. for Quercus acctissima, Pinus densiflora, and Quercus aliena, were 22.8%, 18.7% and 10.0%, respectively, and in ground vegetation Q. mongolica 17.0%, Q. serrata 16.8% Corylus heterophylla 11.8%, and Q. dentata 11.3% in order. (2) Buyeo district. The number of species enumerated in this district was 36 and the R.I.V. of Pinus densiflora for the uppper layer was 100%. In the middle layer, the R.I.V. of Q. variabilis and Q. serrata were 8.6% and 8.5% respectively. In the ground vegetative 24 species were counted which had no more than 5% of R.I.V. The mean R.I.V. of P.densiflora ( totaling three layers ) and averaging four plots was 57.7% in contrast to 46.9% for Gongju district. (3) Gochang-district The total number of woody species was 23 and the mean R.I.V. of Pinus densiflora was 66.0% showing greater value than those for two former districts. The next high value was 6.5% for Q. serrata. As the time passes since insect outbreak, the mean R.I.V. of P. densiflora increased as the following order, 46.9%, 57.7% and 66%. This implies that P. densiflora was getting back to its original dominat state again. The pooled importance of Genus Quercus was decreasing with the increase of that for Pinus densiflora. This trend was contradict to the facts which were surveyed at Kyonggi-do area (the central temperate forest zone) reported previously (Yim et al, 1980). Among Genus Quercus, Quercus acutissina, warm-loving species, was more abundant in the southern temperature zone to which the present research is concerned than the central temperate zone. But vice-versa was true with Q. mongolica, a cold-loving one. The species which are not common between the present survey and the previous report are Corpinus cordata, Beltala davurica, Wisturia floribunda, Weigela subsessilis, Gleditsia japonica var. koraiensis, Acer pseudosieboldianum, Euonymus japonica var. macrophylla, Ribes mandshuricum, Pyrus calleryana var. faruiei, Tilia amurensis and Pyrus pyrifolia. In Figure 4 and Table 5, Maximum species diversity (maximum H'), Species diversity (H') and Eveness (J') were presented. The Similarity indices between districts were shown in Tab. 5. Seeing Fig. 6, showing two-dimensional ordination of polts on the basis of X and Y coordinates, Ai plots aggregate at the left site, Bi plots at lower site, and Ci plots at upper-right site. The increasing and decreasing patterns as to Relative Density and Relative Importance Value by genus or species were given in Fig. 7. Some of the patterns presented here are not consistent with the previously reported ones (Yim, et al, 1980). The present authors would like to attribute this fact that two distinct types of the insect attack, one is the short war type occuring in the south temperate forest zone, which means that insect attack went for a few years only, the other one is a long-drawn was type observed at the temperate forest zone in which the insect damage went on continuously for several years. These different behaviours of infestation might have resulted the different ways of vegetational change. Analysing the similarity indices between districts, the very convincing results come out that the value of dissimilarity index between A and B was 30%, 27% between B and C and 35% between A and C (Table 6). The range of similarity index was obtained from the calculation of every possible combinations of plots between two districts. Longer time isolation between communities has brought the higher value of dissimilarity index. The main components of ground vegetation, 10 to 20 years after insect outbreak, become to be consisted of mainly Genus Lespedeza and Rhododendron. Genus Quercus which relate to the top dorminant state for a while after insect attack was giving its place to Pinus densiflora. It was implied that, provided that the soil fertility, soil moisture and soil depth were good enough, Genus Quercuss had never been so easily taken ever by the resistant speeies like Pinus densiflora which forms the edaphic climax at vast areas of forest land. Usually they refer Quercus to the representative component of the undisturbed natural forest in the central part of this country.

• Journal of National Security and Military Science
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• s.8
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• pp.49-168
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• 2010

Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.