• Title/Summary/Keyword: life- time prediction

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Stress Modeling for Cyclic Fatigue Life Prediction of Alumina Ceramics (알루미나 세라믹스의 반복 피로 수명 예측을 위한 응력 모델)

  • 이홍림;박성은;한봉석
    • Journal of the Korean Ceramic Society
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    • v.31 no.10
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    • pp.1141-1146
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    • 1994
  • Cyclic fatigue experiment was carried out to predict the life time of alumina ceramics. Four kinds of model were suggested to obtain the adequate representative static stress corresponding to the cyclic stress applied to the alumina specimens. Arithmetic mean stress model gives 21.81 of the crack growth exponent, integrated stress model gives 22.15, maximum stress model gives 24.57, and equivalent static stress model gives 24.43. It is considered that the equivalent static stress model is the most reasonable and gives the best adequate crack growth exponents value.

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Reliability Prediction using Telcordia SR-332 in Electric Home Appliance (Telcordia SR-332를 이용한 가전제품 신뢰도 예측)

  • Lee Duck-Kyu
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.427-438
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    • 2005
  • This paper is concerned with the problem in predicting the reliability of an LCD product, Product reliability calculation methods classify accelerated life test (ALT) and using the reliability standard as MIL-HDBK-217F and Telcordia SR-332. The reliability standard can calculate estimating value more quickly than accelerated life test. The system MTBF was calculated in accordance of Telcordia SR-332 standard which includes directions of part electronic measurement, temperature rise and environmental test data. This research is intended to obtain the useful information for each electric design step to save time and cost.

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Time-series Analysis and Prediction of Future Trends of Groundwater Level in Water Curtain Cultivation Areas Using the ARIMA Model (ARIMA 모델을 이용한 수막재배지역 지하수위 시계열 분석 및 미래추세 예측)

  • Baek, Mi Kyung;Kim, Sang Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the impact of greenhouse cultivation area and groundwater level changes due to the water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complexes. The groundwater observation data in the Miryang study area were used and classified into greenhouse and field cultivation areas to compare the groundwater impact of water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complex. We identified the characteristics of the groundwater time series data by the terrain of the study area and selected the optimal model through time series analysis. We analyzed the time series data for each terrain's two representative groundwater observation wells. The Seasonal ARIMA model was chosen as the optimal model for riverside well, and for plain and mountain well, the ARIMA model and Seasonal ARIMA model were selected as the optimal model. A suitable prediction model is not limited to one model due to a change in a groundwater level fluctuation pattern caused by a surrounding environment change but may change over time. Therefore, it is necessary to periodically check and revise the optimal model rather than continuously applying one selected ARIMA model. Groundwater forecasting results through time series analysis can be used for sustainable groundwater resource management.

The influence of a first-order antedependence model and hyperparameters in BayesCπ for genomic prediction

  • Li, Xiujin;Liu, Xiaohong;Chen, Yaosheng
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.31 no.12
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    • pp.1863-1870
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The Bayesian first-order antedependence models, which specified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) effects as being spatially correlated in the conventional BayesA/B, had more accurate genomic prediction than their corresponding classical counterparts. Given advantages of $BayesC{\pi}$ over BayesA/B, we have developed hyper-$BayesC{\pi}$, ante-$BayesC{\pi}$, and ante-hyper-$BayesC{\pi}$ to evaluate influences of the antedependence model and hyperparameters for $v_g$ and $s_g^2$ on $BayesC{\pi}$.Methods: Three public data (two simulated data and one mouse data) were used to validate our proposed methods. Genomic prediction performance of proposed methods was compared to traditional $BayesC{\pi}$, ante-BayesA and ante-BayesB. Results: Through both simulation and real data analyses, we found that hyper-$BayesC{\pi}$, ante-$BayesC{\pi}$ and ante-hyper-$BayesC{\pi}$ were comparable with $BayesC{\pi}$, ante-BayesB, and ante-BayesA regarding the prediction accuracy and bias, except the situation in which ante-BayesB performed significantly worse when using a few SNPs and ${\pi}=0.95$. Conclusion: Hyper-$BayesC{\pi}$ is recommended because it avoids pre-estimated total genetic variance of a trait compared with $BayesC{\pi}$ and shortens computing time compared with ante-BayesB. Although the antedependence model in $BayesC{\pi}$ did not show the advantages in our study, larger real data with high density chip may be used to validate it again in the future.

Dynamic Analysis of Francis Runners - Experiment and Numerical Simulation

  • Lais, Stefan;Liang, Quanwei;Henggeler, Urs;Weiss, Thomas;Escaler, Xavier;Egusquiza, Eduard
    • International Journal of Fluid Machinery and Systems
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2009
  • The present paper shows the results of numerical and experimental modal analyses of Francis runners, which were executed in air and in still water. In its first part this paper is focused on the numerical prediction of the model parameters by means of FEM and the validation of the FEM method. Influences of different geometries on modal parameters and frequency reduction ratio (FRR), which is the ratio of the natural frequencies in water and the corresponding natural frequencies in air, are investigated for two different runners, one prototype and one model runner. The results of the analyses indicate very good agreement between experiment and simulation. Particularly the frequency reduction ratios derived from simulation are found to agree very well with the values derived from experiment. In order to identify sensitivity of the structural properties several parameters such as material properties, different model scale and different hub geometries are numerically investigated. In its second part, a harmonic response analysis is shown for a Francis runner by applying the time dependent pressure distribution resulting from an unsteady CFD simulation to the mechanical structure. Thus, the data gained by modern CFD simulation are being fully utilized for the structural design based on life time analysis. With this new approach a more precise prediction of turbine loading and its effect on turbine life cycle is possible allowing better turbine designs to be developed.

A prediction of mold temperature distribution and lifetime with different spray process of mold release agent in high pressure diecasting mold using computer simulation (컴퓨터 시뮬레이션을 이용한 고압다이캐스팅 금형의 이형제 분사공정에 따른 금형온도분포 및 금형수명 예측)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyun;Yoon, Sang-Il;Chang, Dae-Jung
    • Design & Manufacturing
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.49-53
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    • 2019
  • The temperature distribution and lifetime of molds were predicted by computer simulation analysis with various spraying and blowing process of high pressure die casting. After varying the spraying angle and time, the mold temperature, heat exchange and mold life were predicted. As the spraying angle increases, the maximum temperature of the mold decreases, which is because the spraying area increases and the heat exchange with the mold increases. Heat exchange occurs more actively in the blowing process than in the spraying process. This is because the cooling is not performed due to the steam generation. When the spraying angle is 50 degree, the minimum life of the mold is analyzed 200 times. After adjusting the blowing time from 5s to 3s, the minimum lifetime of the mold has been increased almost twice.

Estimation of Service Life for Expressway Bridge Subjected to Chloride Ingress from De-icer (동절기 제설제 사용에 대한 고속도로 교량의 내구수명 평가)

  • Lee, Honam;Jeon, Chanki;Kim, Juho;Shim, Jaeyeong;Jeon, Inkyu
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.548-555
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    • 2015
  • This paper aims to estimate the service life of the target bridge structures subjected to chloride ingress from de-icer, which is used for safety of vehicles in winter, by investigating the chloride ingress into concrete. In this study, the 10-year-old bridge structures were investigated by measuring the chloride along the depth from the exposed surface to derive the surface chloride concentration and the diffusion coefficient for the prediction of service life. The service life of each measured point on the structures were estimated with the surface chloride concentration and the diffusion coefficient by using Life-365 software. As a result, it was estimated for all measured points to have over 100-year service life. Furthermore, the diffusion coefficient and the service life from the measured data were compared to another method calculated with the concrete mix, considering the time dependency of diffusion coefficient.

Accelerated Life Prediction for STS301L Gas Welded Joint (I) - Fillet Type - (STS301L 가스용접 이음재의 가속수명예측 (I) - Fillet Type -)

  • Baek, Seung-Yeb
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.467-474
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    • 2010
  • Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structural material for railroad cars and commercial vehicles. Structures made of stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by gas welding, For the fatigue design of gas welded joints such as fillet joints, it is necessary to obtain design information of the stress distribution at the weldment as well as the fatigue strength of the gas-welded joints. Further, the influence of the geometrical parameters of gas-welded joints on stress distribution and fatigue strength must be evaluated. in this study, ${\Delta}P-N_f$ curves were obtained by fatigue tests. and, the ${\Delta}P-N_f$ curves were rearranged on the basis of the ${\Delta}{\sigma}-N_f$ relation for the hot-spot stresses at the gas-welded joints. These results, were used for conducting an accelerated life test(ALT) From the experiment results, an acceleration model was derived and factors were estimated. The objective is to obtain the information required for the analysis of the fatigue lifetime of fillet welded joints and for data analysis by the statistic reliability method to save time and cost and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.

Accelerated Life Test and Analysis of Track Drive Unit for an Excavator (주행 구동 유니트의 가속 수명 시험 및 분석)

  • Lee Y.B.;Park J.H.
    • Transactions of The Korea Fluid Power Systems Society
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2005
  • For the reliability evaluation of the track drive unit(TDU), firstly, we analyzed the major failure modes through FMEA(failure mode & effects analysis), FTA(failure tree analysis), and 2-stage QFD(quality function deployment), and then quantitatively determined the priority order of test items. The Minitab analysis was also performed for prediction of life distribution and parameters of TDU by use of field failure data collected from 430 excavators for two years. In addition, we converted the fluctuation load in field conditions into the equivalent load, and for evaluation of the accelerated lift by the cumulative fatigues, the equivalent load is again divided into the fluctuation load by reference of test time. And then, by use of the test method in this paper, the acceleration factor(AF) of needle bearing inside planetary gear which is the most weakly designed part of TDU is achieved as 5.3. This paper presents the quantitative selection method of test items for reliability evaluation, the determination method of the accelerated life test time, and the method of non-failure test time based on a few of samples. And, we proved the propriety of the proposed methods by experiments using a TDU for a 30 ton excavator.

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