• Title/Summary/Keyword: landslide prediction

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Development of Permanent Displacement Model for Seismic Mountain Slope (지진 시 산사면의 영구변위 추정식 개발)

  • Lee, Jong-Hoo;Park, Duhee;Ahn, Jae-Kwang;Park, Inn-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2015
  • Empirical seismic displacement equations based on the Newmark sliding block method are widely used to develop seismic landslide hazard map. Most proposed equations have been developed for embankments and landfills, and do not consider the dynamic response of sliding block. Therefore, they cannot be applied to Korean mountain slopes composed of thin, uniform soil-layer underlain by an inclined bedrock parallel to the slope. In this paper, a series of two-dimensional dynamic nonlinear finite difference analyses were performed to estimate the permanent seismic slope displacement. The seismic displacement of mountain slopes was calculated using the Newmark method and the equivalent acceleration time history. The calculated seismic displacements of the mountain slopes were compared to a widely used empirical displacement model. We show that the displacement prediction is significantly enhanced if the slope is modeled as a flexible sliding mass and the amplification characteristics are accounted for. Regression equation, which uses PGA, PGV, Arias intensity of the ground motion and the fundamental period of soil layer, is shown to provide a reliable estimate of the sliding displacement. Furthermore, the empirical equation is shown to reliably predict the hazard category.

Artificial Accelerated Weathering of Volcanic Rocks from Ulleungdo Island (인공풍화가속실험을 통한 울릉도에 분포하는 화산암의 풍화특성 고찰)

  • Woo, Ik
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.499-510
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    • 2015
  • Artificial accelerated weathering test evaluated rocks from near the circuit road of Ulleungdo island, approximately 120 km from east of the Korean Peninsula. The tests subjected rock specimens to conditions based on the climate of the island. The specimens (such as basaltic breccia, trachyte, volcanic breccia) were preliminarily classified using a TAS diagram (XRF data) and based on the constituent minerals (XRD data); they were further classified by weathering degree according to their absorption ratios. During the artificial accelerated weathering, the absorption ratio of most of the specimens increased, but the point-load strength did not decrease in most cases, except for the volcanic breccia. The greater initial absorption ratio of trachyte rock specimen in comparison with the other specimens led to a greater increase of its absorption ratio during the artificial accelerated weathering test. The volcanic breccia specimens showed the greatest increase of absorption ratio and the biggest reduction ratio of the point- load strength during the tests. These results could aid prediction of the weathering rate of rocks in Ulleungdo island subjected to weathering processes; trachyte which appears to accelerate with time, and volcanic breccia whose mechanical strength can largely decrease in a relative short period of time. Proper measures therefore appear necessary for the prevention of natural disaster such as rock fall and landslide around the circuit road.

Comparison of Effective Soil Depth Classification Methods Using Topographic Information (지형정보를 이용한 유효토심 분류방법비교)

  • Byung-Soo Kim;Ju-Sung Choi;Ja-Kyung Lee;Na-Young Jung;Tae-Hyung Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2023
  • Research on the causes of landslides and prediction of vulnerable areas is being conducted globally. This study aims to predict the effective soil depth, a critical element in analyzing and forecasting landslide disasters, using topographic information. Topographic data from various institutions were collected and assigned as attribute information to a 100 m × 100 m grid, which was then reduced through data grading. The study predicted effective soil depth for two cases: three depths (shallow, normal, deep) and five depths (very shallow, shallow, normal, deep, very deep). Three classification models, including K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, and Deep Artificial Neural Network, were used, and their performance was evaluated by calculating accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Results showed that the performance was in the high 50% to early 70% range, with the accuracy of the three classification criteria being about 5% higher than the five criteria. Although the grading criteria and classification model's performance presented in this study are still insufficient, the application of the classification model is possible in predicting the effective soil depth. This study suggests the possibility of predicting more reliable values than the current effective soil depth, which assumes a large area uniformly.

A Simulation of a Small Mountainous Chachment in Gyeoungbuk Using the RAMMS Model (RAMMS 모형을 이용한 경북 소규모 산지 유역의 토석류 모의)

  • Hyung-Joon Chang;Ho-Jin Lee;Seong-Goo Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2024
  • In Korea, mountainous areas cover 60% of the land, leading to increased factors such as concentrated heavy rainfall and typhoons, which can result in debris flow and landslide. Despite the high risk of disasters like landslides and debris flow, there has been a tendency in most regions to focus more on post-damage recovery rather than preventing damage. Therefore, in this study, precise topographic data was constructed by conducting on-site surveys and drone measurements in areas where debris flow actually occurred, to analyze the risk zones for such events. The numerical analysis program RAMMS model was utilized to perform debris flow analysis on the areas prone to debris flow, and the actual distribution of debris flow was compared and analyzed to evaluate the applicability of the model. As a result, the debris flow generation area calculated by the RAMMS model was found to be 18% larger than the actual area, and the travel distance was estimated to be 10% smaller. However, the simulated shape of debris flow generation and the path of movement calculated by the model closely resembled the actual data. In the future, we aim to conduct additional research, including model verification suitable for domestic conditions and the selection of areas for damage prediction through debris flow analysis in unmeasured watersheds.

A Study on Optimal Site Selection for Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS): the Case of Honam and Jeju Areas (최적의 산악기상관측망 적정위치 선정 연구 - 호남·제주 권역을 대상으로)

  • Yoon, Sukhee;Won, Myoungsoo;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.208-220
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    • 2016
  • Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS) is an important ingredient for several climatological and forest disaster prediction studies. In this study, we select the optimal sites for AMOS in the mountain areas of Honam and Jeju in order to prevent forest disasters such as forest fires and landslides. So, this study used spatial dataset such as national forest map, forest roads, hiking trails and 30m DEM(Digital Elevation Model) as well as forest risk map(forest fire and landslide), national AWS information to extract optimal site selection of AMOS. Technical methods for optimal site selection of the AMOS was the firstly used multifractal model, IDW interpolation, spatial redundancy for 2.5km AWS buffering analysis, and 200m buffering analysis by using ArcGIS. Secondly, optimal sites selected by spatial analysis were estimated site accessibility, observatory environment of solar power and wireless communication through field survey. The threshold score for the final selection of the sites have to be higher than 70 points in the field assessment. In the result, a total of 159 polygons in national forest map were extracted by the spatial analysis and a total of 64 secondary candidate sites were selected for the ridge and the top of the area using Google Earth. Finally, a total of 26 optimal sites were selected by quantitative assessment based on field survey. Our selection criteria will serve for the establishment of the AMOS network for the best observations of weather conditions in the national forests. The effective observation network may enhance the mountain weather observations, which leads to accurate prediction of forest disasters.

Analysis of Slope Stability Considering the Saturation Depth Ratio by Rainfall Infiltration in Unsaturated Soil (불포화토 내 강우침투에 따른 포화깊이비를 고려한 사면안정해석)

  • Chae, Byung-Gon;Park, Kyu-Bo;Park, Hyuck-Jin;Choi, Jung-Hae;Kim, Man-Il
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.343-351
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    • 2012
  • This study proposes a modified equation to calculate the factor of safety for an infinite slope considering the saturation depth ratio as a new variable calculated from rainfall infiltration into unsaturated soil. For the proposed equation, this study introduces the concepts of the saturation depth ratio and subsurface flow depth. Analysis of the factor of safety for an infinite slope is conducted by the sequential calculation of the effective upslope contributing area, subsurface flow depth, and the saturation depth ratio based on quasi-dynamic wetness index theory. The calculation process makes it possible to understand changes in the factor of safety and the infiltration behavior of individual rainfall events. This study analyzes stability changes in an infinite slope, considering the saturation depth ratio of soil, based on the proposed equation and the results of soil column tests performed by Park et al. (2011 a). The analysis results show that changes in the factor of safety are dependent on the saturation depth ratio, which reflects the rainfall infiltration into unsaturated weathered gneiss soil. Under continuous rainfall with intensities of 20 and 50 mm/h, the time taken for the factor of safety to decrease to less than 1.3 was 2.86-5.38 hours and 1.34-2.92 hours, respectively; in the case of repeated rainfall events, the time taken was between 3.27 and 5.61 hours. The results demonstrate that it is possible to understand changes in the factor of safety for an infinite slope dependent on the saturation depth ratio.