• 제목/요약/키워드: kriging analysis

검색결과 351건 처리시간 0.03초

시계열 환경변수 분포도 작성 및 불확실성 모델링: 미세먼지(PM10) 농도 분포도 작성 사례연구 (Time-series Mapping and Uncertainty Modeling of Environmental Variables: A Case Study of PM10 Concentration Mapping)

  • 박노욱
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.249-264
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    • 2011
  • 이 논문에서는 환경변수의 시계열 분포도 작성과 불확실성 모델링을 위해 시공간영역으로 확장된 다중 가우시안 크리깅을 제안하였다. 다중 가우시안 틀 안에서, 우선 정규점수변환된 환경변수를 결정론적 경향 성분과 확률론적 잔차 성분으로 분해하였다. 그리고 시간 경향 모델 계수의 내삽을 통해 경향 성분의 시계열 공간 분포도를 작성하였다. 정상성 잔차 성분의 시공간 상관 구조는 곱-합 시공간 베리오그램 모델을 이용하여 정량화하였고, 이 베리오그램 모델과 시공간 크리깅을 이용하여 국소적 누적 확률분포함수를 모델링하였다. 이 국소적 누적 확률분포함수로부터 평균값과 조건부 분산을 계산하여 공간분포도 작성과 불확실성 분석에 각각 이용하였다. 제안 기법의 적용성 평가를 위해 인천광역시에서 3년간 13개 관측소에서 측정된 월 평균 미세먼지($PM_{10}$) 농도 자료를 이용한 시계열 분포도 작성 사례 연구를 수행하였다. 사례연구 결과, 제안 기법을 통해 기존 공간 정규 크리깅에 비해 작은 편향과 높은 예측 능력을 가진 시계열 미세먼지($PM_{10}$) 농도 분포도 작성이 가능함을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 조건부 분산과 특정 농도값을 초과할 확률값들은 해석을 위한 유용한 보조 정보를 제공하였다.

2차원 균열판의 p-적응적 유한요소해석을 위한 정규크리깅 보간법의 적용 (Application of Ordinary Kriging Interpolation Method for p-Adaptive Finite Element Analysis of 2-D Cracked Plates)

  • 우광성;조준형;박미영
    • 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.429-440
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    • 2006
  • 이 연구의 목적은 두 가지로 대별할 수 있다. 첫째는, 베리오그램 모델링에 기초를 둔 정규크리깅 보간법의 p-적응적 유한요소법으로의 적용성이다. 둘째는, 수정된 초수렴 팻취복구 기법을 사용한 사후오차평가기와 연계된 계층적 p-체눈 세분화의 적응적 유한요소 과정을 제시하는 것이다. 가중치를 부여한 보간기법중의 하나인 정규크리깅 방법은 가우스 적분점에서의 응력데이타로 부터 소위 준정해를 얻는데 적용된다. 가중치를 동일하게 가정하는 종래의 보간기법과는 달리 실험적 및 이론적 베리오그램을 작성한 후 보간을 위한 가중치를 결정하게 된다. 한편, 적응적 p-체눈 세분화는 해석영역의 각 체눈에서 p-차수를 만족할만한 정확도를 얻을 수 있도록 프로그램내에서 자동으로 사후오차평가를 통해 불균등 또는 선택적으로 증가시킨다. 수정된 초수렴 팻취복구기법을 검증하기 위해 극한치를 사용한 새로운 오차평가기가 제안된다. 제안된 알고리즘의 정당성은 선형탄성파괴역학의 대표적 문제들인 중앙균열판, 일변균열 및 양변균열 해석을 통해 테스트되었다.

플래핑 운동을 적용한 자율무인잠수정(AUV)의 날개형상 및 운동 최적설계 (Optimization Design of Hydrofoil Shape and Flapping Motion in AUV(Autonomous Underwater Vehicle))

  • 김일환;최중선;박경현;이도형
    • 한국유체기계학회 논문집
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.24-31
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    • 2013
  • The motion of living organisms such as birds, fishes, and insects, has been analyzed for the purpose of the design of MAV(Micro Air Vehicle) and NAV(Nano Air Vehicle). In this research, natural motion was considered to be applied to the determination of the geometry and motion of AUV(Autonomous Underwater Vehicle). The flapping motion of a number of hydrofoil shapes in AUV was studied, and at the same time, the optimization of the hydrofoil shape and flapping motion was executed that allow the highest thrust and efficiency. The harmonic motion of plunging and pitching of NACA 4 digit series models, was used for the numerical analysis. The meta model was made by using the kriging method in Optimization method and the experimental points of 49 were extracted for the OA(Orthogonal array) in DOE(Design of experiments). Parametric study using this experimental points was conducted and the results were applied to MGA(Micro Genetic Algorithm). The flow simulation model was validated to be an appropriate tool by comparing with experimental data and the optimized shape and motion of AUV was turned out to produce highest thrust and efficiency.

Conceptual Design Optimization of Tensairity Girder Using Variable Complexity Modeling Method

  • Yin, Shi;Zhu, Ming;Liang, Haoquan;Zhao, Da
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2016
  • Tensairity girder is a light weight inflatable fabric structural concept which can be used in road emergency transportation. It uses low pressure air to stabilize compression elements against buckling. With the purpose of obtaining the comprehensive target of minimum deflection and weight under ultimate load, the cross-section and the inner pressure of tensairity girder was optimized in this paper. The Variable Complexity Modeling (VCM) method was used in this paper combining the Kriging approximate method with the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) method, which was implemented by ABAQUS. In the Kriging method, the sample points of the surrogate model were outlined by Design of Experiment (DOE) technique based on Optimal Latin Hypercube. The optimization framework was constructed in iSIGHT with a global optimization method, Multi-Island Genetic Algorithm (MIGA), followed by a local optimization method, Sequential Quadratic Program (SQP). The result of the optimization gives a prominent conceptual design of the tensairity girder, which approves the solution architecture of VCM is feasible and efficient. Furthermore, a useful trend of sensitivity between optimization variables and responses was performed to guide future design. It was proved that the inner pressure is the key parameter to balance the maximum Von Mises stress and deflection on tensairity girder, and the parameters of cross section impact the mass of tensairity girder obviously.

2 층열차 차체의 meta model 기반 최적설계 (Meta Model-Based Desgin Optimization of Double-Deck Train Carbody)

  • 황원주;정재준;이태희;김형진
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2005년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.387-392
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    • 2005
  • Double-deck train have studied in the next generation train in KRRI. Double-deck train have more seat capacities compared with single deck vehicles and is a efficient, reliable and comfortable alternative train. Because of heavy weight, weight minimization of double-deck train carbody is imperative to reduce cost and extend life-time of train. Weight minimization problem of the double-deck train car-body is required to decide 66 design variables of thicknesses for large aluminum extruded panel while satisfying stress constraints. Design variables are too many and one execution of structural analysis of double-deck train carbody is time-consuming. Therefore, we adopt approximation technique to save computational cost of optimization process. Metamodels such as response surface model (RSM) and kriging model are used to approximate model-based optimization is described. RSM is easy to obtain and expressed explicit function, but this is not suitable for highly nonlinear and large scaled problems. Kriging model employs an interpolation scheme and is developed in the fields of spatial statistics and geostatistics. Target of this design is to find optimum thickness of AEP to minimize weight of doulbe-deck train carbody. In this study, meta model techniques are introduced to carry out weight minimization of a double-deck train car-body.

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공간분석 기법을 이용한 대기오염 개인노출추정 방안 소개 및 적용의 사례 (Prediction Approaches of Personal Exposure from Ambient Air Pollution Using Spatial Analysis: A Pilot Study Using Ulsan Cohort Data)

  • 손지영;김윤신;조용성;이종태
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.339-346
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    • 2009
  • The objectives of this study were to introduce spatial interpolation methods which have been applied in recent papers, to apply three methods (nearest monitor, inverse distance weighting, kriging) to domestic data (Ulsan cohort) as an example of estimating the personal exposure levels. We predicted the personal exposure estimates of 2,102 participants in Ulsan cohort using spatial interpolation methods based on information of their residential address. We found that there was a similar tendency among the estimates of each method. The correlation coefficients between predictions from pairs of interpolation methods (except for the correlation coefficient between nearest montitor and kriging of CO and $SO_2$) were generally high (r=0.84 to 0.96). Even if there are some limitations such as location and density of monitoring station, spatial interpolation methods can reflect spatial aspects of air pollutant and spatial heterogeneity in individual level so that they provide more accurate estimates than monitor data alone. But they may still result in misclassification of exposure. To minimize misclassification for better estimates, we need to consider individual characteristics such as daily activity pattern.

Evaluation of the Population Distribution Using GIS-Based Geostatistical Analysis in Mosul City

  • Ali, Sabah Hussein;Mustafa, Faten Azeez
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제36권1호
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    • pp.83-92
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this work was to apply geographical information system (GIS) for geostatistical analyzing by selecting a semi-variogram model to quantify the spatial correlation of the population distribution with residential neighborhoods in the both sides of Mosul city. Two hundred and sixty-eight sample sites in 240 ㎢ are adopted. After determining the population distribution with respect to neighborhoods, data were inserted to ArcGIS10.3 software. Afterward, the datasets was subjected to the semi-variogram model using ordinary kriging interpolation. The results obtained from interpolation method showed that among the various models, Spherical model gives best fit of the data by cross-validation. The kriging prediction map obtained by this study, shows a particular spatial dependence of the population distribution with the neighborhoods. The results obtained from interpolation method also indicates an unbalanced population distribution, as there is no balance between the size of the population neighborhoods and their share of the size of the population, where the results showed that the right side is more densely populated because of the small area of residential homes which occupied by more than one family, as well as the right side is concentrated in economic and social activities.

Road Noise 개선을 위한 CAE 기반 DFSS Study (CAE-based DFSS Study for Road Noise Reduction)

  • 권우성;유봉준;김병훈;김인동
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.735-741
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    • 2011
  • In the early phase of vehicle development, CAE is conducted as tool for vehicle performance assessment. To maintain acceptable road noise performance, solution for reduced vehicle sensitivity is required. Chassis interface dynamic stiffness characteristics are key component to isolating vibration and noise of road from the vehicle interior. This research provide how to set up the optimized dynamic characteristics under noise effect through DFSS study. CAE-based DOE is performed to build prediction math model, CMS process involves DOE to achieve very fast run times while giving results very comparable. Minimized $95^{th}$ percentile of performance distribution is applied to minimize vehicle sensitivity and road noise levels variation during the optimization process. Finally, the results of optimization were reviewed for performance and robustness.

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치주인대의 비선형성을 고려한 치아 교정용 호선의 굽힘 최적화 (Bending Optimization of Archwire for Orthodontics Considering the Nonlinearity of Periodontal Ligament)

  • 허지인;이권희
    • 한국기계가공학회지
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2013
  • Orthodontics is a branch of dentistry that is concerned with the study and treatment of malocclusion, which may result from tooth irregularities, disproportionate jaw relationships, or both. Orthodontic devices consist of brackets, archwire connected to each bracket, and bends and hooks for auxiliary functions. Basically, orthodontics involves the interaction of brackets and archwire. It should be noted that uncontrolled tipping can occur due to unwanted movement of the teeth. The bending of an archwire can control the angle of an archwire and the rotation of a tooth. In this study, we predict the relationship between the bending angle of an archwire and the rotation of a tooth using the Kriging interpolation method. Also, we calculate the angle of an archwire that occurs at the minimum value of tooth rotation.

토양정보별 포장내 공간변이 예측에 관한 연구 (The Prediction of Spacial Variability for Soil Information in Paddy Field)

  • 정인규;성제훈;이충근;김상철;이용범
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2004
  • This study was carried out to verify and predict the soil informations such as the contents of organic matter(OM) and Mg and pH of the soil. The predictability of spacial variation in the paddy field was examined by analyzing the various soil information. The prediction models for the OM pH, and Mg, were developed using inverse distance weighted (IDW), triangulated irregular network(TIN) and Kriging model. The determination of coefficients of linear and spherical Kriging models were 0.756 and 0.578, respectively, and were very low in comparison with other soil information. For IDW and TIN model, the determination of coefficients were 1.000 and hence the performance of the models was found to be excellent. The developed models were validated using unknown soil sample obtained In 2000 and 2001. From the analysis of relationship between the measured pH and predicted 0.9353. For prediction of Mg, the determination of coefficient is more than 0.8. Since the determination of coefficients of developed models for OM were relatively low, it may be difficult to predict the content of OM using the developed models. For further study, the additional works to enhance the performance of the prediction models for soil information are required.