• 제목/요약/키워드: inundation probability

검색결과 26건 처리시간 0.042초

기상예보 기반 농촌유역 침수 위험도 예보를 위한 침수 확률 DB 구축 (Establishment of Inundation Probability DB for Forecasting the Farmland Inundation Risk Using Weather Forecast Data)

  • 김시내;전상민;이현지;황순호;최순군;강문성
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제62권4호
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2020
  • In order to reduce damage from farmland inundation caused by recent climate change, it is necessary to predict the risk of farmland inundation accurately. Inundation modeling should be performed by considering multiple time distributions of possible rainfalls, as digital forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration is provided on a six-hour basis. As building multiple inputs and creating inundation models take a lot of time, it is necessary to shorten the forecast time by building a data base (DB) of farmland inundation probability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish a DB of farmland inundation probability in accordance with forecasted rainfalls. In this study, historical data of the digital forecasts was collected and used for time division. Inundation modeling was performed 100 times for each rainfall event. Time disaggregation of forecasted rainfall was performed by applying the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which uses consistency of fractal characteristics to six-hour rainfall data. To analyze the inundation of farmland, the river level was simulated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The level of farmland was calculated by applying a simulation technique based on the water balance equation. The inundation probability was calculated by extracting the number of inundation occurrences out of the total number of simulations, and the results were stored in the DB of farmland inundation probability. The results of this study can be used to quickly predict the risk of farmland inundation, and to prepare measures to reduce damage from inundation.

설계강우의 지속시간 및 시간분포에 따른 배수개선 농경지 침수 영향 분석 (Effects of Duration and Time Distribution of Probability Rainfall on Paddy Fields Inundation)

  • 전상민;김귀훈;이현지;강기호;유승환;최진용;강문성
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제64권2호
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2022
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the effect of the duration and time distribution of probability rainfall on farmland inundation for the paddy fields in the drainage improvement project site. In this study, eight drainage improvement project sites were selected for inundation modeling. Hourly rainfall data were collected, and 20- and 30-year frequency probability rainfalls were estimated for 14 different durations. Probability rainfalls were distributed using Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) and Huff time distribution methods. Design floods were calculated for 48 hr and critical duration, and IDF time distribution and Huff time distribution were used for 48 hr duration and critical duration, respectively. Inundation modeling was carried out for each study district using 48 hr and critical duration rainfalls. The result showed that six of the eight districts had a larger flood discharge using the method of applying critical duration and Huff distribution. The results of inundation depth analysis showed similar trends to those of design flood calculations. However, the inundation durations showed different tendencies from the inundation depth. The IDF time distribution is a distribution in which most of the rainfall is concentrated at the beginning of rainfall, and the theoretical background is unclear. It is considered desirable to apply critical duration and Huff time distribution to agricultural production infrastructure design standards in consideration of uniformity with other design standards such as flood calculation standard guidelines.

GIS를 이용한 침수모의모형의 적용 (Application of Inundation Simulation Model using GIS)

  • 김상민;박승우
    • 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국농공학회 2001년도 학술발표회 발표논문집
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    • pp.314-318
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    • 2001
  • The analysis of the spatial extent of flood inundation is important for flood mitigation. Geographic Information System (GIS) has advantage of analyzing spatial distributed data. Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analsysis System(HEC-RAS) with HEC-GeoRAS was used to analyze flood inundation. HEC-GeoRAS, which is an ArcView GIS extension designed to process geospatial data for HEC-RAS, is a useful tool for storing, managing, analyzing, and displaying spatially distributed data. Rational formula and 24-hr duration probability precipitation data of Suwon meteorological station were used to estimate the flood runoff. And water profiles were calculated using the HEC-RAS model with HEC-GeoRAS. The flooded region is 8.24ha when 50-yr probability precipitation was applied and 8.8ha when 100-yr was applied to Bahlan study watershed which is located in Whasung county, Kyunggi province, having an area of $29.79km^{2}$.

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GIS 기반 농경지 침수모의시스템의 구축 및 적용 (Applications of a GIS-based Paddy Inundation Simulation System)

  • 김상민;박종민;박승우
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제46권5호
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2004
  • A GIS-based paddy inundation simulation system which is capable of simulating temporal and spatial inundation processes was established and applied in this paper. The system is composed of HEC-GeoHMS, and HEC-GeoRAS modules which interface the GIS and flood runoff models, and HEC-HMS, and HEC-RAS models which estimate the flood runoff. It was used to simulate storm runoff and inundation for a small rural watershed, the Baran HP#7, which is 10.69 $km^2$ in size. The simulated peak runoff, time to peak, and total direct runoff for eight storms were compared with the observed data. The results showed that the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) for the observed peak runoff was 0.99 and an error, RMSE, 11.862 $m^3$/s for calibration stages. In the model verification, $R^2$ was 0.99 and RMSE 1.296 $m^3$/s. Paddy inundation for each paddy growing stages in study watershed were estimated using verified inundation simulation system when probability rainfall was applied.

하천 수리구조물에 의한 제내지 침수모의 (The Inundation Simulation for Inland by River Hydraulic Structures)

  • 추태호;윤현철;노현석;윤관선
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.2460-2468
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    • 2014
  • 본 최근 이상기후 현상으로 인하여 단시간동안 특정지역에 집중되는 국지성호우가 빈번하게 발생하고 있어, 잠재적인 침수재해에 대비하기 위해 적합한 설계빈도를 적용할 필요가 있다. 그러나 하천설계기준을 살펴보면 배수문의 수문설계빈도는 20년 이상으로만 명시되어 그 설계빈도에 대한 기준이 상세하지 않음을 알 수 있다. 하지만 침수피해를 저감하기 위해 외수를 고려한 제내지 침수모의가 수행되어 정량적 평가를 요한다. 내수침수모의는 보통 수리 수문학적 특성을 동시에 고려하여 매우 복잡하고 시간이 오래 소요되었다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 기 설립된 하천관련 보고서를 이용하여 간단하면서도 단시간에 평가할 수 있는 방법을 제안하였고, 하천의 중류 및 하류에 배수문이 설치된 5개소의 제내지를 대상으로 설계빈도에 따른 9가지 확률강우량을 적용하여 설계빈도 및 위치에 따른 영향을 평가하였다.

홍수 예.경보 체계 개발을 위한 연구 - 화옹호 유역의 유역 확률홍수량 산정 - (Computing Probability Flood Runoff for Flood Forecasting & Warning System - Computing Probability Flood Runoff of Hwaong District -)

  • 김상호;김한중;홍성구;박창언;이남호
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제49권4호
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2007
  • The objective of the study is to prepare input data for FIA (Flood Inundation Analysis) & FDA (Flood Damage Assessment) through rainfall-runoff simulation by HEC-HMS model. For HwaOng watershed (235.6 $km^{2}$), HEC-HMS was calibrated using 6 storm events. Geospatial data processors, HEC-GeoHMS is used for HEC-HMS basin input data. The parameters of rainfall loss rate and unit hydrograph are optimized from the observed data. HEC-HMS was applied to simulate rainfall-runoff relation to frequency storm at the HwaOng watershed. The results will be used for mitigating and predicting the flood damage after river routing and inundation propagation analysis through various flood scenarios.

CMIP5 및 CMIP6 GCM 기반 무한천 유역 농경지 미래 침수 위험도 분석 (Future Inundation Risk Evaluation of Farmland in the Moohan Stream Watershed Based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs)

  • 전상민;황순호;김지혜;곽지혜;김계웅;이현지;김석현;조재필;이재남;강문성
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제62권6호
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 2020
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate future inundation risk of farmland according to the application of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) and coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, future weather data based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 general circulation model (GCM) were collected, and inundation was simulated using the river modeling system for small agricultural watershed (RMS) and GATE2018 in the Tanjung district of the Moohan stream watershed. Although the average probable rainfall of CMIP5 and CMIP6 did not show significant differences as a result of calculating the probability rainfall, the difference between the minimum and maximum values was significantly larger in CMIP6. The results of the flood discharge calculation and the inundation risk assessment showed similar to trends to those of probability rainfall calculations. The risk of inundation in the future period was found to increase in all sub-watersheds, and the risk of inundation has been analyzed to increase significantly, especially if CMIP6 data are used. Therefore, it is necessary to consider climate change effects by utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data when designing and reinforcing water structures in agricultural areas in the future. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for utilizing CMIP6-based future weather data.

토지이용 제한인자를 활용한 농업적 토지이용 적합성 분석 - 경상남도 창녕군 이방면을 대상으로 - (An Analysis of Agricultural Landuse Suitability Using Landuse Limitation Factors - A Case Study of Ibang-myeon, Changnyeong-gun, Kyungsangnam-do -)

  • 장갑수;박인환
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.357-372
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    • 2006
  • The excessive land activities in farming can cause soil erosion, inundation by a flood, and fallow. So far land evaluation has been analyzed using the land use limitation derived from the excessive land activities. This study was done for evaluating the agricultural fields by using 3 land use limitations, inundation potential, soil erodibility potential, and fallow potential. The study area is Ibang-myeon, Changnyeong-gun, Gyeongnam-province, Korea. A logistic regression model was applied to recognize the inundation potential by a flood in the Nakdong river basin. And potential soil erodibility index (PSEI) was derived from USLE model to analyze the soil erodibility potential. And a probability model from a logistic regression model was applied to detect the fallow potential. Therefore, we found 220.7ha for the 4th grade and 86.1ha for the 5th grade was analyzed as water damage potential. Large area near Nakdong river have problem to grow the rice due to the damage by water inundation. And 213.6ha for the 3rd grade and 103.3ha for 4th grade was detected as a result of the analysis of soil erosion potential. The soil erosion potential was high when within-field integrity of soil was not stable, or the kinetic energy was high or the slope length was long due to a steep slope of a specific land. And 869.1ha for 3rd grade, 174.9ha for 4th grade, and 110.6ha for 5th grade was detected to be distributed having the fallow potential. Especially, a village, having a steep mountain, had 249.5ha for the 3rd grade, which was 28.7% of total area showing the 3rd grade. Finally, Three villages, including An-ri, Geonam-ri, Songgok-ri, showed they had largest area of the suitable land in the study area. These villages had similar topographic condition where they were far from Nakdong river, and they had relatively higher elevation and flat lands.

고정, 임의시간 강우량 선택에 따른 농경지 배수 영향 분석 (Affecting Discharge of Flood Water in Paddy Field from Selecting Rainfall with Fixed and Unfixed Duration)

  • 황동주;김병규;심좌근
    • 한국관개배수논문집
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.64-76
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    • 2012
  • Recently, it has been increased disaster of crops and agricultural facilities with climate change such as regional storm, typhoon. However agricultural facilities have unsafe design criteria of improving drainage corresponding to this change. This study has analyzed the impact that inundation area and magnitude of drainage-facility is decided based on fixed- and unfixed-duration precipitation by applying revised design criteria of drainage for climate change. The result was shown that 1-day and 2-days rainfall for 20-years return period has increased about 11.4%, 4.4% respectively by changing fixed- to unfixed duration. And the increase rate of design flood was 15.0%. The result was also shown that Inundation area was enlarged by 6.6% as well as increased inundation duration under same basic condition in designed rainfall between fixed- and unfixed-duration. According to the analysis, it is necessary for pump capacity in unfixed-duration to be increased by 70% for same effect with fixed-duration. Therefore, when computing method of probability precipitation is changed from fixed one to unfixed-duration by applying revised design criteria, there seems to be improving effect in drainage design. Because 1440-minutes rainfall for 20-years return period with unfixed-duration is more effective than 1-day rainfall for 30-years return period with fixed-duration. By applying unfixed-duration rainfall, capacity of drainage facilities need to be expanded to achieve the same effects (Inundation depth & duration) with fixed-duration rainfall. Further study is required for considering each condition of climate, topography and drainage by applying revised design criteria.

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내수침수모의를 통한 배수문 높이결정에 관한 연구 (Study on the Decision of Watergate Stage Using Inundation Simulation for Inland)

  • 추태호;윤관선;윤현철
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.1149-1156
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    • 2014
  • 본 홍수피해를 저감하기 위해 하천의 제방 증축, 하도준설, 수리구조물의 설치 등에 있어 적합한 설계가 요구된다. 이 중에서 배수문에 관한 하천설계기준을 살펴보면 설치위치는 7개의 항목으로 나열되어 있으나, 그 기준이 상세하지 않음을 알 수 있다. 제내지의 토지이용 및 유역특성을 반영한 배수문의 적절한 위치를 산정하기 위하여 외수위를 고려한 내수침수모의가 수행되어 정량적 평가가 이뤄져야 한다. 그러나 내수침수모의는 대개 수리 수문학적 특성을 동시에 고려해야 되기 때문에 매우 복잡하고 시간이 오래 소요된다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 배수문 설치에 대한 정량적 검토를 바탕으로 간편하고 정확한 설계방법을 제시하였다.