• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.379-390
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• 2013

Through the survey of the K university students' perception on participation in elections, we want to find ways to induce a sound political participation and to effectively be able to boost voter turnout. We analyze the relations among image on election, interest in election and will of participation via structural equation model. We found that both image on election and interest in election significantly influence on will of participation in election. Using the last election participation as a moderating variable, we found that image on election has more effects on will of participation for the participants but not for the case of interest in election.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.41-62
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• 2017

The political reformation in Indonesia is a determinant factor of the change in political communications and the roles of media. Currently, the political elites need media support, since it contextually has a significant role. Whoever has a good relationship with the media, will be loved by the public. On the other hand, the media also have a vested interest in the elite in running businesses and building the power of industry. Policies and capital pose a challenge to maintaining the continuity of the media. Independence and control of media are at stake, when the interests of the media and the elite collaborate with each other and then build a benefit on both sides. Meanwhile, the role of social media also cannot be neglected. The Indonesian political communication system is characterized by the presence of social media in a pseudo-relationship between the elite and the public. This paper tries to explain the growing trends of research in the academic environment and the research trends in political practice in Indonesia after the occurrence of post-reformation era in legislative and executive elections. The method used is the meta-analysis of research outcomes of university (dissertations) and secondary data sources. Data processing is done by meta-analysis of secondary data. The results of meta-analysis research indicate that, the objective conditions, in Indonesia, especially the political conditions, stimulate new spaces in communication research. The study of political communication becomes dominant in the academic environment. In addition, communication research is also characterized by a shift from the linear perspective (positivistic paradigm) to the interactive perspective (naturalistic paradigm). On the other hand, the development of politic and governance situations in Indonesia has prompted the establishment of polling agencies that help citizens understand the maps of political power and candidates in general elections and regional head elections.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2014.11a
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• pp.928-931
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• 2014

The detection of human behavior from social media revolutionized health, business, criminal and political prediction. Significance of it, in incentive transformation of public opinion had already proven for developed countries in improving democratic process of elections. In $3^{rd}$ World countries, voters poll votes for personal interests being unaware of party manifesto or national interest. These issues can be addressed by social media, resulting as ongoing process of improvement for presently adopted electoral procedures. On the optimistic side, people of such countries applied social media to garner support and campaign for political parties in General Elections. Political leaders, parties, and people empowered themselves with social media, in disseminating party's agenda and advocacy of party's ideology on social media without much campaigning cost. To study effectiveness of social media inferred from individual's political behavior, large scale analysis, sentiment detection & tweet classification was done in order to classify, predict and forecast election results. The experimental results depicts that social media content can be used as an effective indicator for capturing political behaviors of different parties positive, negative and neutral behavior of the party followers as well as party campaign impact can be predicted from the analysis.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.261-272
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.23-43
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to explain characteristics of panel data and display the academic cases using panel data. Panel data have merit to control various variables to influence respondents' attitude and estimate the effects of independent variables researchers are interested in by surveying the same respondents several times. However, panel data also have problems such as contaminating the respondents and reducing the number of the respondents as survey conducted several times. In spite of a few inherent problems of panel data, informations that panel data provide are valuable and some research themes could not be possible without panel data. This paper investigates the relationship between interest in elections and voting. Electoral stimulation such as watching TV debates influences the consistent voting intended. But changing nonvoters who had voting intention but not vote are not influenced by the electoral stimulation.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.50-57
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• 2015

An online survey was conducted to assess motivations for using, reliance on, and perceived credibility of political blogs and microblogs during both the Taiwanese general election of 2009 (the blog epoch) and the presidential elections of 2012 (the microblog epoch). Results indicated higher reliance on and motivation for using political blogs than microblogs. Blogs were also perceived to be more credible than microblogs. Respondents who primarily engaged in blogging for information purposes were more likely to judge candidate blogs as highly credible, whereas interest in entertainment emerged as the strongest predictor of the perceived credibility of microblogs. This research also provided quantitative evidence showing how users viewed blogs and microblogs differently in the context of political campaigns. The aim is to explore the pros and cons of blogging and microblogging as a tool for political communication.

• The Journal of the Korean dental association
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• v.49 no.10
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• pp.584-598
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• 2011

The age structure has been experiencing substantial change due to the decreased birth rate as well as the increased life expectancy. Gorge Magnus, an English economist, casts warnings of population ageing which has the potential of huge socioeconomic impact human society has never experienced before. The prediction that proportion of elderly people in need of oral health care will increase substantially is a new challenge to dentists in the future. The old paradigm that the aged person is just the person who was born earlier and needs the same conventional oral health care should be shifted to the new one. Elderly people tend to express their political interest related with health care system by actively participating in the national elections. The need to sustain economic status for the extended life span makes them seek eagerly esthetic health care to maintain sound social function. Most of them are under multiple chronic diseases and take related medicines. In addition, many studies report about mental change as well as physical change among the aged people. Since the prevalence of dental diseases among the aged is higher than other chronic devastating diseases, the aged seeking oral health care will increase. The aged who has different physical and psychological status as well as chronic disease and related medicine will show unexpected response to the conventional oral health care. In addition, the impact of tooth loss is substantial physically, mentally and emotionally. Dentist should prepare different approaches for the elderly dental patient.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.301-316
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• 2020

Algorithm journalism refers to the practices of automated news generation using algorithms that generate human sounding narratives. Algorithm journalism is known to have strengths in automating repetitive tasks through rapid and accurate analysis of data, and has been actively used in news domains such as sports and finance. In this paper, we propose an interactive card news system that generates personalized local election articles in 2018. The system consists of modules that collects and analyzes election data, generates texts and images, and allows users to specify their interests in the local elections. When a user selects interested regions, election types, candidate names, and political parties, the system generates card news according to their interest. In the study, we examined how personalized card news are evaluated in comparison with text and card news articles by human journalists, and derived implications on the potential use of algorithm in reporting political events.

• Journal of dental hygiene science
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.93-102
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• 2023

Background: To investigate political participation by dental hygiene students and analyze the differences therein based on the learning efficacy of dental hygiene policy. Methods: A total of 239 dental hygiene students who were expected to graduate responded to the survey. The data were collected online using a structured questionnaire consisting of 6 items on general characteristics, 10 on political participation, and 15 on the learning efficacy of dental hygiene policy. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 23.0. Political participation based on the learning efficacy of dental hygiene policy was analyzed using independent t-tests, ANOVA, and multiple regression analysis (p<0.05). Results: Among the dental hygiene students, 60.7% voted in all three recent presidential, general, and local elections, and 14.2% did not. For political parties supported, 65.7% responded that they had "no supporting party," and 34.3% indicated that they had a "supporting party." In terms of the level of political participation of dental hygiene students (0~50 points), the average score was 25.8 points, with the average passive political participation (0~25 points) score at 15.6 points and the average active political participation (0~25 points) score at 10.2 points. With an increase in dental hygiene policy learning efficacy, both passive and active political participation showed higher scores (p<0.05). Conclusion: Dental hygiene students showed low political participation. The presence of a supporting party, higher voting participation, and higher learning efficacy of dental hygiene policy were associated with higher passive and active political participation. Therefore, to increase this population's interest in political participation, various opportunities for related learning need to be promoted and provided in academia, leading to the enhancement of their political capabilities. In this manner, dental hygienists should expand their capabilities in various roles such as advocates, policy makers, and leaders.