• Title/Summary/Keyword: instability analysis

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East Asian Security in the Multipolar World Order: A Review on the Security Threat Assessment of the Korean Peninsula Amid the Restructuring of International Order (다극체제와 동아시아 안보: 국제질서 재편에 따른 한반도 안보 위협 논의의 재고찰)

  • Lee, Sungwon
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.37-78
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    • 2022
  • The U.S.-led international order, sustained by overwhelming national power since the end of the Cold War, is gradually being restructured from a unipolar international system to a bipolar international system or a multipolar international system, coupled with the weakening of U.S. global leadership and the rise of regional powers. Geopolitically, discussions have been constantly raised about the security instability that the reshaping of the international order will bring about, given that East Asia is a region where the national interests of the United States and regional powers sharply overlap and conflict. This study aims to critically analyze whether security discussions in Korea are based on appropriate crisis assessment and evaluation. This paper points out that the security crisis theory emerging in Korea tends to arise due to threat exaggeration and emphasizes the need for objective evaluation and conceptualization of the nature and the level of threats that the restructured international order can pose to regional security. Based on the analysis of changes in conflict patterns (frequency and intensity), occurring in East Asia during the periods divided into a bipolar system (1950-1990), a unipolar system (1991-2008), and a multipolar system (2009-current), this study shows that East Asia has not been as vulnerable to power politics as other regions. This investigation emphasizes that the complexity of Korea's diplomatic and security burden, which are aggravated by the reorganization of the international order, do not necessarily have to be interpreted as a grave security threat. This is because escalating unnecessary security issues could reduce the diplomatic strategic space of the Republic of Korea.

Prospects of cross-strait relaions after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (중국공산당 제20차 전국대표대회 이후 양안관계 전망)

  • Wonkon Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.161-168
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    • 2023
  • Recently, China-Taiwan relations are facing a crisis, and at the same time, the U.S.-China relationship and the structure of Northeast Asia are greatly shaken, so we should pay attention to changes in cross-strait relations. This study aims to predict how cross-strait relations will change after the party convention by analyzing Xi Jinping's Taiwan policy, focusing on the "Political Report" of the 20th party convention and the content analysis of leadership personnel. The results of the study are as follows. First, as the amendment to the party constitution announced after the closing of the party convention stipulates the possibility of armed invasion, Xi Jinping will implement a tough Taiwan policy emphasizing unification. Second, strategic competition with the United States will continue to intensify in the future when analyzing the contents of Chapters 2, 11, 13, and 14 of the "Political Reporting" and the personnel management of diplomatic and security leadership. As a result, cross-strait relations are expected to show instability for a considerable period of time. Third, at a time when Taiwan rejects the unification plan of "one country, two systems" and the tendency to de-Chineseize is strengthening, there is a possibility that legislation or specific enforcement ordinances will be enacted to strengthen the existing "Anti-Secession Law." Fourth, it is expected that strong and warm two-sided strategies will be used together, such as taking a strong response to external forces interfering with the Taiwan issue and Taiwan independence forces, and using incentives for the Kuomintang(KMT) and Taiwanese who are friendly to unification.

A Study on the Effect of Government Support System and Obstacles to Innovation on R&D investment and Performance of Small and Medium-Sized Manufacturing Companies : Based on CDM Model (정부지원제도와 기술혁신 저해요인이 중소제조기업의 연구개발 투자와 성과에 미치는 영향: CDM 모형을 바탕으로)

  • Lee, Yun-Ha;Park, Jae-Min
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.49-75
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    • 2019
  • Market instability offers opportunities as well as the need for careful innovation strategies and learning for a company's survival. Companies that find new opportunities decide to carry out innovation and decide on the size of their investments by considering their position in the market they are aiming for and the intensity of competition. This study was conducted to check whether obstacles to innovation face by SMEs in the manufacturing sector vary depending on the stage of corporate growth and to identify the impact of the government support system on the decision-making process on the performance of innovation. According to the analysis, there were differences in obstacles to innovation depending on the stage of corporate growth. It was found that more innovative SMEs are, more obstacles they face, and to overcome such obstacles, they try to access government support systems more. In addition, the use of a government support system eliminated obstacles to innovation, and the positive and significant effects of investing in innovation were identified. This study is meaningful in that it explicitly approached these hypotheses by applying a multistage model to the process of innovation carried out by SMEs in the manufacturing sector.

Techno-economic Analysis and Environmental Impact Assessment of a Green Ammonia Synthesis Process Under Various Ammonia Liquefaction Scenarios (암모니아 액화 시나리오에 따른 그린암모니아 합성 공정의 경제성 및 환경 영향도 평가)

  • Gunyoung Kim;Yinseo Song;Boram Gu;Kiho Park
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.62 no.2
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2024
  • In this study, two different scenarios for ammonia liquefaction in the green ammonia manufacturing process were proposed, and the economic-feasibility and environmental impact of each scenario were analyzed. The two liquefaction processes involved gas-liquid separation before cooling at high pressure (high pressure cooling process) or after decompression without the gas-liquid separation (low pressure cooling process). The high-pressure cooling process requires higher capital costs due to the required installation of separation units and heat exchangers, but it offers relatively lower total utility costs of 91.03 $/hr and a reduced duty of 2.81 Gcal/hr. In contrast, although the low-pressure cooling process is simpler and cost-effective, it may encounter operational instability due to rapid pressure drops in the system. Environmental impact assessment revealed that the high-pressure cooling process is more environmentally friendly than the low-pressure cooling process, with an emission factor of 0.83 tCO2eq less than the low-pressure cooling process, calculated based on power usage. Consequently, the outcomes of this study provide relevant scenario and a database for green ammonia synthesis process adaptable to various process conditions.

An Overview of the Rationale of Monetary and Banking Intervention: The Role of the Central Bank in Money and Banking Revisited (화폐(貨幣)·금융개입(金融介入)의 이론적(理論的) 근거(根據)에 대한 고찰(考察) : 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 존립근거(存立根據)에 대한 개관(槪觀))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.71-94
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    • 1990
  • This paper reviews the rationale of monetary and banking intervention by an outside authority, either the government or the central bank, and seeks to delineate clearly the optimal limits to the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway in Korea as well as on a global scale. Furthermore, this paper seeks to establish an objective and balanced view on the role of the central bank, especially in light of the current discussion on the restructuring of Korea's central bank, which has been severely contaminated by interest-group politics. The discussion begins with the recognition that the modern free banking school and the new monetary economics are becoming formidable challenges to the traditional role of the government or the central bank in the monetary and banking sector. The paper reviews six arguments that have traditionally been presented to support intervention: (1) the possibility of an over-issue of bank notes under free banking instead of central banking; (2) externalities in and the public good nature of the use of money; (3) economies of scale and natural monopoly in producing money; (4) the need for macro stabilization policy due to the instability of the real sector; (5) the external effects of bank failure due to the inherent instability of the existing banking system; and (6) protection for small banknote users and depositors. Based on an analysis of the above arguments, the paper speculates on the optimal role of the government or central bank in the monetary and banking system and the optimal degree of monetary and banking deregulation. By contrast to the arguments for free banking or laissez-faire monetary systems, which become fashionable in recent years, monopoly and intervention by the government or central bank in the outside money system can be both necessary and optimal. In this case, of course, an over-issue of fiat money may be possible due to political considerations, but this issue is beyond the scope of this paper. On the other hand, the issue of inside monies based on outside money could indeed be provided for optimally under market competition by private institutions. A competitive system in issuing inside monies would help realize, to the maxim urn extent possible, external economies generated by using a single outside money. According to this reasoning, free banking activities will prevail in the inside money system, while a government monopoly will prevail in the outside money system. This speculation, then, also implies that the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway should and most likely will be limited to the inside money system, which could be liberalized to the fullest degree. It is also implied that it will be impractical to deregulate the outside money system and to allow market competition to provide outside money, in accordance with the arguments of the free banking school and the new monetary economics. Furthermore, the role of the government or central bank in this new environment will not be significantly different from their current roles. As far as the supply of fiat money continues to be monopolized by the government, the control of the supply of base money and such related responsibilities as monetary policy (argument(4)) and the lender of the last resort (argument (5)) will naturally be assigned to the outside money supplier. However, a mechanism for controlling an over-issue of fiat money by a monopolistic supplier will definitely be called for (argument(1)). A monetary policy based on a certain policy rule could be one possibility. More importantly, the deregulation of the inside money system would further increase the systemic risk inherent in the current fractional banking system, while enhancing the efficiency of the system (argument (5)). In this context, the role of the lender of the last resort would again become an instrument of paramount importance in alleviating liquidity crises in the early stages, thereby disallowing the possibility of a widespread bank run. Similarly, prudential banking supervision would also help maintain the safety and soundness of the fully deregulated banking system. These functions would also help protect depositors from losses due to bank failures (argument (6)). Finally, these speculations suggest that government or central bank authorities have probably been too conservative on the issue of the deregulation of the financial system, beyond the caution necessary to preserve system safety. Rather, only the fullest deregulation of the inside money system seems to guarantee the maximum enjoyment of external economies in the single outside money system.

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Interpretation of Deformation History and Paleostress Based on Fracture Analysis Exposed in a Trench (트렌치에서의 단열분석을 통해 도출한 단열발달사 및 고응력 해석: 울산 신암리의 예)

  • Gwon, Sehyeon;Kim, Young-Seog
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2016
  • The study area, located in Sinam-ri, Ulsan, in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula, is mainly composed of hornblende granite (ca. 65 Ma). Fracturing and reactivation of a fault striking ENE-WSW was strongly controlled by the intrusion of a mafic dyke (ca. 44 Ma), which behaves as a discontinuity in the mechanically homogeneous pluton, increasing the instability of the basement in this area. A geometric and kinematic study undertaken to interpret the faults and fractures was performed in a trench excavated almost perpendicular to the orientation of the dyke. The analysis of structural elements, such as dykes, veins, and faults, is used to infer the deformation history and to determine the paleostress orientations at the time of formation of the structures. The deformation history established based on this analysis is as follows: (1) NNE-SSW, E-W, ENE-WSW, and NE-SW trending fractures had already developed in the pluton before dyke intrusion; (2) felsic dykes intruded under conditions of σHmax oriented N-S and σHmin oriented E-W; (3) mafic dykes intruded under conditions of σHmax oriented E-W and σHmin oriented N-S; (4) dextral reactivation of the main fault associated with the development of hydrothermal quartz veins under conditions of σHmax oriented E-W and σHmin oriented N-S; (5) sinistral reactivation of the main fault and high-angle normal faults under conditions of σHmax oriented NE-SW and σHmin oriented NW-SE; and (6) dextral reactivation of the main fault and NE-SW low-angle reverse faults under conditions of σHmax oriented NW-SE and σHmin oriented NE-SW. These results are consistent with the tectonic history of the Pohang-Ulsan block in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula, and indicates the tectonic deformation of the southern area of the Ulsan fault bounded by Yangsan fault was analogous to that of the Pohang-Ulsan area from the Cenozoic. This work greatly aids the selection of sites for critical facilities to prevent potential earthquake hazards in this area.

A Evaluation of Direct Payment on Agricultural Income effect using Farm Manager Registration Information (농업경영체 등록정보를 활용한 농업직불제 소득효과 분석)

  • Han, Suk-Ho;Chae, Gwang-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.195-202
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    • 2016
  • The government has run and managed various forms of direct payment systems, such as the paddy and field direct payment, to ease the instability of farm incomes with respect to market opening, and preserve farm income. Direct payments to the agricultural sector is a center in the key policy instrument that plays an important role in income stabilization. Despite the large amount of spending in the farm unit, the status of direct payment, and policy effects the analysis of direct payments, such as stability of income contribution, are insufficient. This paper, using the farm unit DB in 2014 and 2015, performed farm level analysis of direct payment, and derived the implications of the performance evaluation system. As a result, the distribution of direct payment showed considerable bias to the left side compared to the normal distribution curve. Approximately half of the farms (49.3%) in 2014 DB should receive below 100,000 won per year by a direct payment. A larger-scale farm showed a significantly increased income effect and income stabilizing effect because direct payments make higher contributions to farm income in proportional to the area. In the more elderly farmers, a high contribution by direct payment to farm income was found to be an advantage; however, in small-scale farms of less than 0.5ha, direct payment contribution on farm household income was only 3%. In large-scale farms, 10ha or more, the contribution to farm income were found to be 29.4%. The income of large farms was 10 times larger than small farmers, and the direct payment entitlements that were received were 110 times larger. Through this policy, direct payments are required for future improvements and modifications.

Cause Analysis in Decrease of Body Stability According to The Induced Astigmatic Blur (유발된 난시성 흐림에 의한 신체 안정성 감소의 원인분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Yeob;Yu, Dong-Sik;Moon, Byeong-Yeon;Cho, Hyun Gug
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.259-264
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: To establish the cause of decrease in body stability and to analyze the effects on sensory organs maintaining static balance according to the induced astigmatic blur. Methods: Twenty subjects (10 males, 10 females; mean age, $23.40{\pm}2.70years$) were participated in this study. To induce myopic simple astigmatism, the axis directions of cylindrical lenses were placed $180^{\circ}$ on both eyes (with-the-rule), $90^{\circ}$ on both eyes (against-the-rule), and $45^{\circ}$ on both eyes (oblique). Cylindrical lenses of +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, +2.00, +3.00, +4.00, and +5.00 D were used to increase astigmatic blur in each astigmatism types. General stability (ST) and sway power (SP) in frequencies by each sensory organs were analyzed using the TETRAX biofeedback system. Results: ST in the all astigmatism types were raised with increase of astigmatic blur compared to full corrected condition, but a significant difference only showed in the induced oblique astigmatism. According to the results of correlation analysis between ST and SP in the each frequencies with increase of astigmatic blur, the causes of increased ST in the induced oblique astigmatism showed to have a high correlation in order of somatosensory system (high-medium frequency), central nervous system (high frequency), peripheral vestibular system (low-medium frequency), and visual system (low frequency). Conclusions: The visual information by uncorrected oblique astigmatism may disturb the normal functions of all sensory organs maintaining body balance, consequently, the body stability can be reduced. Therefore, optimal correction of astigmatism can play an important role for reducing the instability of body balance.

Determinants of Demand for Long-Term Care (장기요양서비스 수요의 결정요인)

  • Chung, Wankyo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.139-167
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    • 2009
  • A new public insurance for long-term care was introduced in July 2008 to provide for the rising demand for long-term care as the population is aging rapidly. The demand for long-term care is expected to rise further because more and more elderly are living alone or in households with only other elderly, such as his/her spouse, without informal care of their adult children. Even when the elderly are living together with their adult children, daughters and daughters in law, once the main informal care-givers, are not available because they choose to become economically active and work more over time. Experiences of countries such as Japan and Germany with similar public long-term care insurance scheme highlight the importance of detailed analysis on the demand for long-term care for the financial stability of the insurance scheme. Countries which had underestimated the demand for long-term care at the time of adopting the scheme went through financial instability of insurance schemes. This study analyzes the determinants of the demand for long-term care using data from the second demonstration project (April 2006~April 2007) of the long-term care insurance scheme for the elderly in Korea. Taking full advantage of detailed data on the long-term care, this paper analyzes the eligibility for the long-term care insurance scheme and its use. According to study results, even when common diseases among the elderly such as cancer, diabetes, arthritis, dementia, hypertension, etc. are controlled together with other individual and socioeconomic factors, limitations the elderly are faced with in their twelve activities of daily living significantly affect the eligibility for the Korean Long-term Care Insurance Scheme. This means that limitations in daily living activities are more critical than common diseases among the elderly are to the eligibility for the Korean Long-term Care Insurance Scheme. Bathing and toileting problems have been found to be the most important factor affecting the eligibility for the insurance scheme, followed by eating, dressing and moving around inside the house. Moreover, the choices of whether to use long-term care and which to use between home care and institutional care are found to be significantly influenced by health status and various socioeconomic factors of the elderly. In particular, those with more limitations in daily living activities and the female elderly are more likely to use long-term care and institutional care rather than home care. As for home care users, those living alone or with adult children and those with monthly household income of more than 500,000 won are more likely to use home care. Most importantly, even when the monthly household income of the elderly is controlled, the elderly recipients of the National Basic Living Security, who are not charged for long-term care, are more likely to choose home care. This implies that price as well as income is a critical factor for the decision to use long-term care. Further study on the duration of long-term care use will surely enhance the long-term care policy, when panel data is available for simultaneous analysis of the likelihood of long-term care use and its use duration.

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Evaluation of the Color-change and Stability of Hoecheong (Smalt) Pigments When Exposed to Airborne Environmental Pollutants (회청 안료의 보존 환경에 따른 안정성 평가)

  • PARK, Juhyun;LEE, Sunmyung;KIM, Myoungnam
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.22-35
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    • 2021
  • Recently, as the climate changes rapidly and the prevalence of airborne fine particulate matter increases, the pattern of pollutants in the atmospheric environment is also changing. Therefore, the importance of studying the stability of pigments used in colored cultural properties is emerging. Hoecheong is an inorganic blue glass pigment called smalt; it is made by using cobalt as a coloring element in potash glass, and was widely used in colored cultural assets, such as murals and paintings. In this study, we collected three other hoecheong pigments to analyze their properties. The percentage of Co and K contained are different according to the manufacturer, and the smalt-3 sample has a lower cobalt content (15.1 wt.%) and higher potassium content (29.6 wt.%). After this analysis, colored specimens were prepared. Prepared specimens were exposed to ultra-violet rays, CO2/NO2, and NaCl, which are known to have the greatest influence on the stability of pigments. We found that factors affecting the color stability were NO2 gas, ultra-violet rays, and water-soluble salts (NaCl). Among them, NO2 has the most severe impact on color change of the pigments. Results of the component analysis showed that the color change depends on the potassium and cobalt content of the hoecheong pigment. Among the specimens, smalt-3 showed the most vulnerability after exposure to NO2 gas and water-soluble salts. Pigment film stability is affected by watersoluble salts, giving rise not only to color change, but also weakening the physical properties of the film. However, there was no significant change in composition and color after exposure to CO2 gas. In conclusion, we found that hoecheong pigments underwent color change and increased instability of the coating film when exposed to any of the atmospheric environmental factors used in this study, except for CO2.