• 제목/요약/키워드: innovation estimates

검색결과 78건 처리시간 0.02초

The Economic Impact of Multiple Standards in Information Communications & Technology

  • Kim, Bum-Hoan
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.20-25
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    • 2007
  • Standards impact the economy in various ways. Moreover, intense competition exists between a variety of standards in this era of globalization. This paper quantifies the economic effect of multiple standards in the Information Communications and Technology (ICT) sector. Thus, it identifies and specifies which standard applies when economic gains exist. A model is developed which quantifies the magnitude of the economic effect of multiple standards as compared with a single standard or no standard. The model allows for both the micro- and macroeconomic gains from standardization to be quantified. Preliminary estimates indicate that at the macro level the multiple standards multiplier is approximately three. That is for every dollar invested, the gain is on the order of three dollars. Although not as robust. preliminary results indicated a similar economic gain at the micro level Overall, multiple standards dominate a single standard. This paper applies the model to IMT-2000, an example of multiple standards, to demonstrate this approach to quantify the standards economic effect.

Poisson linear mixed models with ARMA random effects covariance matrix

  • Choi, Jiin;Lee, Keunbaik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.927-936
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    • 2017
  • To analyze longitudinal count data, Poisson linear mixed models are commonly used. In the models the random effects covariance matrix explains both within-subject variation and serial correlation of repeated count outcomes. When the random effects covariance matrix is assumed to be misspecified, the estimates of covariates effects can be biased. Therefore, we propose reasonable and flexible structures of the covariance matrix using autoregressive and moving average Cholesky decomposition (ARMACD). The ARMACD factors the covariance matrix into generalized autoregressive parameters (GARPs), generalized moving average parameters (GMAPs) and innovation variances (IVs). Positive IVs guarantee the positive-definiteness of the covariance matrix. In this paper, we use the ARMACD to model the random effects covariance matrix in Poisson loglinear mixed models. We analyze epileptic seizure data using our proposed model.

사업포트폴리오의 기술시너지효과 :50대 재벌의 패널자료분석 (Technological Synergy Effect of Business Portfolio : Panel Data Analysis on 50 Largest Chaebols in Korea)

  • 김태유;박경민
    • 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 기술경영경제학회 1996년도 제10회 동계학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.265-295
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    • 1996
  • This paper investigates empirically the relationship between various business portfolio properties (particularly technological properties) and chaebol′s performance using data on the 50 largest chaebols in Korea. In addition to the traditional indexes to measure diversification such as entropy index we calculated inter-industry technological similarity using R&D expenditure data by industry and 1990 Input-output Table in Korea, and obtained chaebol-level technological relatedness and internal transaction proportion from chaebols′business profile, inter-industry technological similarity and 1990 input-output table. We applied factor analysis on 13 business portfolio property indexes and showed that they could be grouped into 3 dimensions, diversification scope, inter-business relatedness and degree of vertical integration. In this paper, using 50 largest chaebols′financial data (1989-1994), we analyzed empirically the effect of business portfolio properties on ROS (Return On Sales) which is conventional index for firm performance and on TFP(Total Factor Productivity) growth which is a pure measure of firm performance. To utilize the advantage of panel data, FEM(Fixed Effect Model) and REM(Random Effect Model) were used. The empirical result shows that the entropy index as a measurement of inter-business relatedness is not significant but technological relatedness index is significant. OLS estimates on pooled data were considerably different from FEM or REM estimates on panel data. By introducing interaction effect among the three variables for business portfolio properties, we obtained three findings. First, only VI (Vertical integration) has a significant positive correlation with ROS. Second, when using TFP growth as an dependent variable, both TR(Technological Relatedness) and f[ are significant and positively related to the deepened variable. Third, the interaction term between TR and VI is significant and negatively affects TFP growth, meaning that TR and VI are substitutes. These results suggest strategic directions on restructuring business portfolio. As VI is increased, chaebols will get more profit. A higher level of either TR or W will increase TFP growth rate. but increase in both TR and VI will have a negative effect on TFP growth. To summarize, certain business portfolio properties such as VI and TR can be considered "resources" themselves since they can affect profit rate and productivity growth. VI and TR have a synergy effect of change in profit rate and productivity growth. VI increases ROS and productivity growth, while TR increases productivity growth representing a technological synergy effect.

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한국형 총식이조사에 근거한 우리 국민의 식품 기인 요오드 섭취량 추정 (Estimation of Dietary Iodine Intake of Koreans through a Total Diet Study (TDS))

  • 이지연;여윤재;서민정;이계호;김초일
    • 대한지역사회영양학회지
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.48-55
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to estimate the dietary iodine intake of Koreans by a Total Diet Study (TDS) which provides 'closer-to-real' estimates of exposure to hazardous materials and nutrients through an analysis of table-ready (cooked) samples of foods. Methods: Dietary intake data from 2013-2017 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) was used to select representative foods (RFs) for iodine analysis. A total of 115 RFs were selected and 158 'RF × cooking method-combination' pairs were derived by pairing each RF to corresponding cooking method(s) used more frequently. RFs were collected from 9 mega-markets in 9 metropolitan cities nationwide and mixed into composites prior to cooking preparation to a 'table ready' state for iodine analysis by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Iodine intake of Koreans was estimated based on the food intake data of the 2016-2018 KNHANES. Results: High iodine content was detected in seaweeds such as sea mustard and kelp. The mean iodine intake/capita/day was 418.4 ㎍ and the median value was 129.0 ㎍. Seaweeds contributed to 77.4% of the total iodine intake and the contribution by food item was as follows: sea mustard (44.0%), kelp (20.4%), laver (13.1%), milk (3.9%), egg (3.5%). Compared to the Dietary Reference Intakes for Koreans 2020, the proportion of people with iodine intake exceeding the tolerable upper intake level or below the estimated average requirement was high in the physiologically vulnerable groups (infants, children, pregnant women, and lactating women). Conclusions: The results, drawn from a TDS, are regarded closer to real estimates for iodine intake of Koreans compared with values in existing literature, which were based on a very limited variety of foods. On the other hand, it seems necessary to seek out solutions for the problematic iodine intake among physiologically vulnerable groups through in-depth analyses on food intake data collected with significant scale & quality.

곡률을 이용한 기동표적 추적용 회전가속도 추정기 설계 (An Estimator Design of Turning Acceleration for Tracking a Maneuvering Target using Curvature)

  • 주재석;박제홍;임상석
    • 한국항행학회논문지
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.162-170
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    • 2000
  • 기동표적의 추적은 실재의 표적 궤적과 기둥의 통계적 특성을 미리 알 수 없기 때문에 매우 어려운 일이다. 이를 해결하기 위한 여러 가지 기법들이 제안되었고 이들 방식은 과거의 고전적인 방법에 비해 상당한 성능향상을 가져왔다. 본 논문에서는 칼만필터를 기본으로 한 회전가속도 추정기를 포함하는 필터를 제안한다. 제안된 방법은 인노베이션(innovation)을 사용하는 입력 추정법과는 달리 기동표적의 궤적의 모양으로부터 직접 가속도 입력벡터를 추정하여 필터를 갱신하는 방식이다. 가속도 모델 칼만필터 및 입력추정 기법(Input estimation)과의 성능을 비교하기 위해 3가지 종류의 기동표적 운동에 대하여 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 수행하고 그 결과를 분석한다.

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Online correction of drift in structural identification using artificial white noise observations and an unscented Kalman Filter

  • Chatzi, Eleni N.;Fuggini, Clemente
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.295-328
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    • 2015
  • In recent years the monitoring of structural behavior through acquisition of vibrational data has become common practice. In addition, recent advances in sensor development have made the collection of diverse dynamic information feasible. Other than the commonly collected acceleration information, Global Position System (GPS) receivers and non-contact, optical techniques have also allowed for the synchronous collection of highly accurate displacement data. The fusion of this heterogeneous information is crucial for the successful monitoring and control of structural systems especially when aiming at real-time estimation. This task is not a straightforward one as measurements are inevitably corrupted with some percentage of noise, often leading to imprecise estimation. Quite commonly, the presence of noise in acceleration signals results in drifting estimates of displacement states, as a result of numerical integration. In this study, a new approach based on a time domain identification method, namely the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), is proposed for correcting the "drift effect" in displacement or rotation estimates in an online manner, i.e., on the fly as data is attained. The method relies on the introduction of artificial white noise (WN) observations into the filter equations, which is shown to achieve an online correction of the drift issue, thus yielding highly accurate motion data. The proposed approach is demonstrated for two cases; firstly, the illustrative example of a single degree of freedom linear oscillator is examined, where availability of acceleration measurements is exclusively assumed. Secondly, a field inspired implementation is presented for the torsional identification of a tall tower structure, where acceleration measurements are obtained at a high sampling rate and non-collocated GPS displacement measurements are assumed available at a lower sampling rate. A multi-rate Kalman Filter is incorporated into the analysis in order to successfully fuse data sampled at different rates.

혁신과 무형자본을 통한 경제성장 (Innovation and Intangible Capital for Economic Growth)

  • 김나리
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제19권9호
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    • pp.454-464
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    • 2018
  • OECD 분석에 의하면 현재 무형자본이 가장 잘 발달되어 있는 곳은 선진국이다. 무형자본이 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 준다는 사실은 이미 많은 연구를 통해 증명되었다. 하지만 같은 무형자본이라 하여도 종류에 따라 경제성장에 미치는 기여도가 다를 수 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 점에 착안하여 무형자본의 특성을 세 가지로 분류하고 차이점을 분석하여 이로부터 시사점을 찾고자 하였다. 무형자본의 종류는 전산화된 정보, 지적재산, 그리고 사업적 역량으로 크게 세 가지로 나누어지는데 본 논문에서는 이 분류를 암묵성의 정도, 생산 및 전파의 속도, 그리고 부가가치의 정도에 따라 새로이 살펴보았다. 본 논문은 Polanyi의 암묵성 정도에 따른 지식 분류, Nonaka-Takeuchi 모델, 그리고 스마일 커브를 이용하여 무형자본의 특성과 차이점을 분석하고, 이를 통해 무형자본 자체에 투자를 늘리는 것도 중요하지만 무형자본 중에서도 가장 암묵적인 특성을 가진 무형자본에 투자하는 것이 경제성장에 더욱 큰 영향을 준다는 점을 도출하였다.

정부의 재정지원이 기업과 대학의 연구개발투자(R&D)에 미치는 영향: 비대칭성을 중심으로 (A Impact of Governmental Fiscal Assistance on R&D Investment of Business Enterprise and University: Focusing on the Asymmetric Relationship)

  • 김종희
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.137-167
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    • 2013
  • 본 논문은 정부의 R&D 투자를 위한 재정지출의 확대가 민간기업의 연구개발 투자의 확대에 어떠한 영향을 미치며, R&D 투자 확대를 위한 대학과 기업의 지출 간의 관계에서 어떠한 관계가 확인되는지를 추정하고 있다. 본 논문의 추정결과를 통해 얻을 수 있는 결론은 다음과 같다. 첫째, R&D 투자확대를 위한 정부의 재정지출 확대는 민간기업의 R&D 투자를 확대시킨다. 그러나 대학 등의 고등교육기관의 지출 확대는 오히려 민간기업의 투자를 위축시킨다. 둘째, 대학의 R&D 투자의 확대가 민간기업의 R&D 투자를 구축하는 효과는 강하게 나타나고 있으며, 이러한 구축효과는 각 국가의 경제력, 재정상황, 그리고 경기변동 등 구조적인 변화에 강하게 영향을 받는다. 셋째, R&D 투자를 위한 정부지출이 대학과 기업 중에서 대학에 더 집중될수록 대학과 기업 간의 비대칭적인 관계는 강하게 나타나며, 이러한 관계에는 대학의 투자재원 중 기업부분으로부터의 투자재원이 큰 영향을 미친다. 넷째, 비록, R&D 투자의 확대를 위한 정부의 보조금 규모가 커질수록 기업의 R&D 투자가 확대되고 대학과 기업의 비대칭적인 관계가 개선된다고 하더라도, 정부의 보조금을 통해서 이러한 문제들을 전적으로 해결하기는 사실 상 어렵다.

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블랙숄즈모형을 적용한 태양광 핵심소재 기술가치평가: 기업사례를 중심으로 (Valuation on the Photovoltaic Core Material Technology Using Black-Scholes Model: a Company's Case Study)

  • 이동수;정기호
    • 기술혁신학회지
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.578-598
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    • 2011
  • 본 논문은 차세대 그린에너지원으로 주목받고 있는 태양광산업의 핵심소재 기술에 대한 가치를 실물 옵션 기법을 이용하여 추정한다. 본 논문의 기여는 두 가지이다. 하나는 방법론적인 기여로서, 실물옵션의 기초자산 불확실성을 대변하는 변수로서 주가를 고려하여 실물옵션 적용에서 가장 복잡한 단계인 기초자산 불확실성의 모형과정을 대폭 단순화시켰다. 다른 하나는 응용장의 기여로서, 최근 수요가 크게 증가하고 있는 태양광산업의 핵심소재인 폴리실리콘의 생산공정 기술의 경제적 가치를 평가하였다. 분석사례인 폴리실리콘 산업의 A기업에 적용한 결과, 동 기업의 폴리실리콘 기술의 기초자산이 기하브라운모션을 따르는 것으로 나타났으며 이러한 결과에 블랙-숄즈 옵션가격결정모형을 적용하여 A기업의 폴리실리콘 기술에 대한 콜옵션의 가치는 약 34,229억원으로 측정되었다.

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U.S. Port Investment Strategies and the Corresponding Economic Impacts Stemming from the Panama Canal Expansion

  • Park, ChangKeun
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.195-211
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    • 2021
  • This paper measures the economic impacts of the U.S. port investment strategies coping with the Panama Canal expansion. Using secondary import data, negative and positive estimates of the impacts were presented in this study. Reduced port activities into the West Coast Customs Districts negatively affect transportation and warehousing industries, among other effects. Still, they have simultaneous positive effects in other states from increased imports resulting from modal shifts and changes in the entry port located in the South and East coasts. This study applied the supply-driven National Interstate Economic Model that measures all interstate trade among the U.S. states to divert foreign imports from 15 Pacific Rim countries. For this purpose, the following assumption was adopted: larger ships using the canal will lead to a redirection of seaborne trade among U.S. (and other) ports and result in secondary effects, e.g., using different freight modes and regional growth spillovers. This study also accounted for the entry point change and significant port investments for foreign trade under alternative scenarios. The choice of ports for international trade depends on decisions about how to minimize multimodal delivery costs. The total direct reduction of transportation and warehousing activities associated with foreign imports in the West Coast ports was estimated at $3.3 billion, leading to total negative effects of $5.8 billion. Total positive impacts from the shift of transportation modes with the choice of an entry port and new warehousing activities for foreign imports in the selected 12 states varied. As expected, states that involved an entry port had the most prominent benefits, but Texas, New York, and New Jersey may be benefited through all the port enhancement projects in the U.S. Also, except for Transportation and Postal, and Warehousing industries, Construction is another dominant positive affected industry of the Canal expansion in the U.S.