• Title/Summary/Keyword: information theory

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A Study on the Determinants of Blockchain-oriented Supply Chain Management (SCM) Services (블록체인 기반 공급사슬관리 서비스 활용의 결정요인 연구)

  • Kwon, Youngsig;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.119-144
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    • 2021
  • Recently, as competition in the market evolves from the competition among companies to the competition among their supply chains, companies are struggling to enhance their supply chain management (hereinafter SCM). In particular, as blockchain technology with various technical advantages is combined with SCM, a lot of domestic manufacturing and distribution companies are considering the adoption of blockchain-oriented SCM (BOSCM) services today. Thus, it is an important academic topic to examine the factors affecting the use of blockchain-oriented SCM. However, most prior studies on blockchain and SCMs have designed their research models based on Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) or the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), which are suitable for explaining individual's acceptance of information technology rather than companies'. Under this background, this study presents a novel model of blockchain-oriented SCM acceptance model based on the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework to consider companies as the unit of analysis. In addition, Value-based Adoption Model (VAM) is applied to the research model in order to consider the benefits and the sacrifices caused by a new information system comprehensively. To validate the proposed research model, a survey of 126 companies were collected. Among them, by applying PLS-SEM (Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling) with data of 122 companies, the research model was verified. As a result, 'business innovation', 'tracking and tracing', 'security enhancement' and 'cost' from technology viewpoint are found to significantly affect 'perceived value', which in turn affects 'intention to use blockchain-oriented SCM'. Also, 'organization readiness' is found to affect 'intention to use' with statistical significance. However, it is found that 'complexity' and 'regulation environment' have little impact on 'perceived value' and 'intention to use', respectively. It is expected that the findings of this study contribute to preparing practical and policy alternatives for facilitating blockchain-oriented SCM adoption in Korean firms.

Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

An Exploratory Study on Consumer Behavior of Digital Banking Deposits: Focusing on Bank Loyal Customers (디지털 뱅킹 정기예금의 소비자 행동 실태에 관한 탐색적 연구 -은행 충성고객을 중심으로-)

  • Inkwan Cho;Soo Kyung Park;Bong Gyou Lee
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.130-145
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    • 2023
  • The digital transformation of finance is accelerating, and digital banking has already become a major banking channel. Banks have traditionally placed importance on CRM(Customer Relationship Management) and have tried to retain their loyal customers, who contribute significantly to the bank, such as long-term transactions, holding accounts with a certain balance or more, and holding loans. In this situation, this study exploratorily analyzed the consumer behavior of digital banking deposits in a major bank of Korea(1,145 samples). Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS. The main findings of the study are summarized as follows. It was found that there were differences of consumer behavior in digital banking deposits by generation, and the MZ generation used digital banking more on holidays than other generations. As a result of analyzing the behavior of existing loyal customers and regular customers of digital banking deposit, there was a significant difference in both the amount and period of the deposit. It was confirmed that the existing loyal customers of the bank also engage in consumer behavior that contributes to the bank in digital banking. In addition, the interaction between the customer type and the date of sign up for the deposit period, which is the goal setting of financial consumers, it was found that there was a significant effect. This study empirically analyzed the consumer behavior of digital banking in a situation where decrease of bank branches and encounters with digital banking. The major concepts of the consumer behavior theory are Loyal Customer, Goal Pursuit, and Habit, which were confirmed in an example of digital banking. The results of this study can suggest practical implications for existing banks and Internet-only banks, including the importance of customer management in digital banking.

A Study on the Effect of the Third-Party Award Winning Advertisement on Consumer's Pre-Purchase Intention (제 3 기관 수상(Award Winning) 광고가 소비자 구매의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 마케팅 변수들의 조절 효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Hoseong
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.25-64
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    • 2008
  • Third-Party awards are growing in popularity. They are the hit product of the year chosen by The Korea Economic Daily, the best 10 products of the year chosen by Sports paper, the best hit product chosen by consulting firm and the best venture company of the year chosen by Information and Communication Ministry. Then these questions may be followed. Why industry likes this type of advertisement? Does this type of advertisement influences consumers' purchase intention? And if it does, how? Many researchers have been interested in external cue of product quality by focusing research effort on brand, price, producer, warranty etc. However, important but under-explored area is the role of third-party reference for signaling product quality. This paper comes from the idea that the third-party reference may signal consumers like manufacturer brand, product brand, product price, and shop brand. We develop a related theories to address research questions and drive some research hypotheses based on the previous studies probing source credibility, attribution, and signal theory. We put more emphasis on source credibility. We conducted the research based on 3x2x2x2 between group factorial design to explore causal relationship between the third party award winning advertising(real, fictional, no) and the purchase intention of consumers exposed to other information simultaneously such as product type(experience, search), distribution channel(direct, indirect) and perceived price(high, low). Since subjects are divided into 2 groups based on the means of response without extra experimental stimulus in case of perceived price. 12 different advertisements are used for conducting this study. The results are followings. First, the source credibility of the third party goes up, consumers' purchase intention would go up. It seems that consumers think the credibility of the third-party most when they are exposed to the third party award winning advertisement. Second, the product type does moderate the relationship between the third-party award winning advertisement and purchase intention. And the type of the distribution channel also moderates this relationship. The consumers' purchase intention goes up higher when they buy experience good and there is significant difference of purchase intention when consumers are exposed to direct channel treatment condition. But, perceived price has nothing to do with the third-party winning advertisement context for raising consumer intention to buy advertised product.

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Factors Affecting Intention to Introduce Smart Factory in SMEs - Including Government Assistance Expectancy and Task Technology Fit - (중소기업의 스마트팩토리 도입의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구 - 정부지원기대와 과업기술적합도를 포함하여)

  • Kim, Joung-rae
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.41-76
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    • 2020
  • This study confirmed factors affecting smart factory technology acceptance through empirical analysis. It is a study on what factors have an important influence on the introduction of the smart factory, which is the core field of the 4th industry. I believe that there is academic and practical significance in the context of insufficient research on technology acceptance in the field of smart factories. This research was conducted based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), whose explanatory power has been proven in the study of the acceptance factors of information technology. In addition to the four independent variables of the UTAUT : Performance Expectancy, Effort Expectancy, Social Influence, and Facilitating Conditions, Government Assistance Expectancy, which is expected to be an important factor due to the characteristics of the smart factory, was added to the independent variable. And, in order to confirm the technical factors of smart factory technology acceptance, the Task Technology Fit(TTF) was added to empirically analyze the effect on Behavioral Intention. Trust is added as a parameter because the degree of trust in new technologies is expected to have a very important effect on the acceptance of technologies. Finally, empirical verification was conducted by adding Innovation Resistance to a research variable that plays a role as a moderator, based on previous studies that innovation by new information technology can inevitably cause refusal to users. For empirical analysis, an online questionnaire of random sampling method was conducted for incumbents of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises, and 309 copies of effective responses were used for empirical analysis. Amos 23.0 and Process macro 3.4 were used for statistical analysis. For accurate statistical analysis, the validity of Research Model and Measurement Variable were secured through confirmatory factor analysis. Accurate empirical analysis was conducted through appropriate statistical procedures and correct interpretation for causality verification, mediating effect verification, and moderating effect verification. Performance Expectancy, Social Influence, Government Assistance Expectancy, and Task Technology Fit had a positive (+) effect on smart factory technology acceptance. The magnitude of influence was found in the order of Government Assistance Expectancy(β=.487) > Task Technology Fit(β=.218) > Performance Expectancy(β=.205) > Social Influence(β=.204). Both the Task Characteristics and the Technology Characteristics were confirmed to have a positive (+) effect on Task Technology Fit. It was found that Task Characteristics(β=.559) had a greater effect on Task Technology Fit than Technology Characteristics(β=.328). In the mediating effect verification on Trust, a statistically significant mediating role of Trust was not identified between each of the six independent variables and the intention to introduce a smart factory. Through the verification of the moderating effect of Innovation Resistance, it was found that Innovation Resistance plays a positive (+) moderating role between Government Assistance Expectancy, and technology acceptance intention. In other words, the greater the Innovation Resistance, the greater the influence of the Government Assistance Expectancy on the intention to adopt the smart factory than the case where there is less Innovation Resistance. Based on this, academic and practical implications were presented.

A Study on Factors Affecting BigData Acceptance Intention of Agricultural Enterprises (농업 관련 기업의 빅데이터 수용 의도에 미치는 영향요인 연구)

  • Ryu, GaHyun;Heo, Chul-Moo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.157-175
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    • 2022
  • At this moment, a paradigm shift is taking place across all sectors of society for the transition movements to the digital economy. Various movements are taking place in the global agricultural industry to achieve innovative growth using big data which is a key resource of the 4th industrial revolution. Although the government is making various attempts to promote the use of big data, the movement of the agricultural industry as a key player in the use of big data, is still insufficient. Therefore, in this study, effects of performance expectations, effort expectations, social impact, facilitation conditions, based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology(UTAUT), and innovation tendencies on the acceptance intention of big data were analyzed using the economic and practical benefits that can be obtained from the use of big data for agricultural-related companies as moderating variables. 333 questionnaires collected from agricultural-related companies were used for empirical analysis. The analysis results using SPSS v22.0 and Process macro v3.4 were found to have a significant positive (+) effect on the intention to accept big data by effort expectations, social impact, facilitation conditions, and innovation tendencies. However, it was found that the effect of performance expectations on acceptance intention was insignificant, with social impact having the greatest influence on acceptance intention and innovation tendency the least. Moderating effects of economic benefit and practical benefit between effort expectation and acceptance intention, moderating effect of practical benefit between social impact and acceptance intention, and moderating effect of economic benefit and practical benefit between facilitation condition and acceptance intention were found to be significant. On the other hand, it was found that economic benefits and practical benefits did not moderate the magnitude of the influence of performance expectations and innovation tendency on acceptance intention. These results suggest the following implications. First, in order to promote the use of big data by companies, the government needs to establish a policy to support the use of big data tailored to companies. Significant results can only be achieved when corporate members form a correct understanding and consensus on the use of big data. Second, it is necessary to establish and implement a platform specialized for agricultural data which can support standardized linkage between diverse agricultural big data, and support for a unified path for data access. Building such a platform will be able to advance the industry by forming an independent cooperative relationship between companies. Finally, the limitations of this study and follow-up tasks are presented.

The Impact of Conflict and Influence Strategies Between Local Korean-Products-Selling Retailers and Wholesalers on Performance in Chinese Electronics Distribution Channels: On Moderating Effects of Relational Quality (중국 가전유통경로에서 한국제품 현지 판매업체와 도매업체간 갈등 및 영향전략이 성과에 미치는 영향: 관계 질의 조절효과)

  • Chun, Dal-Young;Kwon, Joo-Hyung;Lee, Guo-Ming
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2011
  • I. Introduction: In Chinese electronics industry, the local wholesalers are still dominant but power is rapidly swifting from wholesalers to retailers because in recent foreign big retailers and local mass merchandisers are growing fast. During such transient period, conflicts among channel members emerge important issues. For example, when wholesalers who have more power exercise influence strategies to maintain status, conflicts among manufacturer, wholesaler, and retailer will be intensified. Korean electronics companies in China need differentiated channel strategies by dealing with wholesalers and retailers simultaneously to sell more Korean products in competition with foreign firms. For example, Korean electronics firms should utilize 'guanxi' or relational quality to form long-term relationships with whloesalers instead of power and conflict issues. The major purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of conflict, dependency, and influence strategies between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers on performance in Chinese electronics distribution channels. In particular, this paper proposes effective distribution strategies for Korean electronics companies in China by analyzing moderating effects of 'Guanxi'. II. Literature Review and Hypotheses: The specific purposes of this study are as follows. First, causes of conflicts between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers are examined from the perspectives of goal incongruence and role ambiguity and then effects of these causes are found out on perceived conflicts of local retailers. Second, the effects of dependency of local retailers upon wholesalers are investigated on local retailers' perceived conflicts. Third, the effects of non-coercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation and coercive strategies such as threats and legalistic pleas exercised by wholesalers are explored on perceived conflicts by local retailers. Fourth, the effects of level of conflicts perceived by local retailers are verified on local retailers' financial performance and satisfaction. Fifth, moderating effects of relational qualities, say, 'quanxi' between wholesalers and retailers are analyzed on the impact of wholesalers' influence strategies on retailers' performances. Finally, moderating effects of relational qualities are examined on the relationship between conflicts and performance. To accomplish above-mentioned research objectives, Figure 1 and the following research hypotheses are proposed and verified. III. Measurement and Data Analysis: To verify the proposed research model and hypotheses, data were collected from 97 retailers who are selling Korean electronic products located around Central and Southern regions in China. Covariance analysis and moderated regression analysis were employed to validate hypotheses. IV. Conclusion: The following results were drawn using structural equation modeling and hierarchical moderated regression. First, goal incongruence perceived by local retailers significantly affected conflict but role ambiguity did not. Second, consistent with conflict spiral theory, the level of conflict decreased when retailers' dependency increased toward wholesalers. Third, noncoercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation implemented by wholesalers had significant effects on retailers' performance such as sales and satisfaction without conflict. On the other hand, coercive influence strategies such as threat and legalistic plea had insignificant effects on performance in spite of increasing the level of conflict. Fourth, 'guanxi', namely, relational quality between local retailers and wholesalers showed unique effects on performance. In case of noncoercive influence strategies, 'guanxi' did not play a role of moderator. Rather, relational quality and noncoercive influence strategies can serve as independent variables to enhance performance. On the other hand, when 'guanxi' was well built due to mutual trust and commitment, relational quality as a moderator can positively function to improve performance even though hostile, coercive influence strategies were implemented. Fifth, 'guanxi' significantly moderated the effects of conflict on performance. Even if conflict arises, local retailers who form solid relational quality can increase performance by dealing with dysfunctional conflict synergistically compared with low 'quanxi' retailers. In conclusion, this study verified the importance of relational quality via 'quanxi' between local retailers and wholesalers in Chinese electronic industry because relational quality could cross out the adverse effects of coercive influence strategies and conflict on performance.

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Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

An Analysis of the Moderating Effects of User Ability on the Acceptance of an Internet Shopping Mall (인터넷 쇼핑몰 수용에 있어 사용자 능력의 조절효과 분석)

  • Suh, Kun-Soo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.27-55
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    • 2008
  • Due to the increasing and intensifying competition in the Internet shopping market, it has been recognized as very important to develop an effective policy and strategy for acquiring loyal customers. For this reason, web site designers need to know if a new Internet shopping mall(ISM) will be accepted. Researchers have been working on identifying factors for explaining and predicting user acceptance of an ISM. Some studies, however, revealed inconsistent findings on the antecedents of user acceptance of a website. Lack of consideration for individual differences in user ability is believed to be one of the key reasons for the mixed findings. The elaboration likelihood model (ELM) and several studies have suggested that individual differences in ability plays an moderating role on the relationship between the antecedents and user acceptance. Despite the critical role of user ability, little research has examined the role of user ability in the Internet shopping mall context. The purpose of this study is to develop a user acceptance model that consider the moderating role of user ability in the context of Internet shopping. This study was initiated to see the ability of the technology acceptance model(TAM) to explain the acceptance of a specific ISM. According to TAM. which is one of the most influential models for explaining user acceptance of IT, an intention to use IT is determined by usefulness and ease of use. Given that interaction between user and website takes place through web interface, the decisions to accept and continue using an ISM depend on these beliefs. However, TAM neglects to consider the fact that many users would not stick to an ISM until they trust it although they may think it useful and easy to use. The importance of trust for user acceptance of ISM has been raised by the relational views. The relational view emphasizes the trust-building process between the user and ISM, and user's trust on the website is a major determinant of user acceptance. The proposed model extends and integrates the TAM and relational views on user acceptance of ISM by incorporating usefulness, ease of use, and trust. User acceptance is defined as a user's intention to reuse a specific ISM. And user ability is introduced into the model as moderating variable. Here, the user ability is defined as a degree of experiences, knowledge and skills regarding Internet shopping sites. The research model proposes that the ease of use, usefulness and trust of ISM are key determinants of user acceptance. In addition, this paper hypothesizes that the effects of the antecedents(i.e., ease of use, usefulness, and trust) on user acceptance may differ among users. In particular, this paper proposes a moderating effect of a user's ability on the relationship between antecedents with user's intention to reuse. The research model with eleven hypotheses was derived and tested through a survey that involved 470 university students. For each research variable, this paper used measurement items recognized for reliability and widely used in previous research. We slightly modified some items proper to the research context. The reliability and validity of the research variables were tested using the Crobnach's alpha and internal consistency reliability (ICR) values, standard factor loadings of the confirmative factor analysis, and average variance extracted (AVE) values. A LISREL method was used to test the suitability of the research model and its relating six hypotheses. Key findings of the results are summarized in the following. First, TAM's two constructs, ease of use and usefulness directly affect user acceptance. In addition, ease of use indirectly influences user acceptance by affecting trust. This implies that users tend to trust a shopping site and visit repeatedly when they perceive a specific ISM easy to use. Accordingly, designing a shopping site that allows users to navigate with heuristic and minimal clicks for finding information and products within the site is important for improving the site's trust and acceptance. Usefulness, however, was not found to influence trust. Second, among the three belief constructs(ease of use, usefulness, and trust), trust was empirically supported as the most important determinants of user acceptance. This implies that users require trustworthiness from an Internet shopping site to be repeat visitors of an ISM. Providing a sense of safety and eliminating the anxiety of online shoppers in relation to privacy, security, delivery, and product returns are critically important conditions for acquiring repeat visitors. Hence, in addition to usefulness and ease of use as in TAM, trust should be a fundamental determinants of user acceptance in the context of internet shopping. Third, the user's ability on using an Internet shopping site played a moderating role. For users with low ability, ease of use was found to be a more important factors in deciding to reuse the shopping mall, whereas usefulness and trust had more effects on users with high ability. Applying the EML theory to these findings, we can suggest that experienced and knowledgeable ISM users tend to elaborate on such usefulness aspects as efficient and effective shopping performance and trust factors as ability, benevolence, integrity, and predictability of a shopping site before they become repeat visitors of the site. In contrast, novice users tend to rely on the low elaborating features, such as the perceived ease of use. The existence of moderating effects suggests the fact that different individuals evaluate an ISM from different perspectives. The expert users are more interested in the outcome of the visit(usefulness) and trustworthiness(trust) than those novice visitors. The latter evaluate the ISM in a more superficial manner focusing on the novelty of the site and on other instrumental beliefs(ease of use). This is consistent with the insights proposed by the Heuristic-Systematic model. According to the Heuristic-Systematic model. a users act on the principle of minimum effort. Thus, the user considers an ISM heuristically, focusing on those aspects that are easy to process and evaluate(ease of use). When the user has sufficient experience and skills, the user will change to systematic processing, where they will evaluate more complex aspects of the site(its usefulness and trustworthiness). This implies that an ISM has to provide a minimum level of ease of use to make it possible for a user to evaluate its usefulness and trustworthiness. Ease of use is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the acceptance and use of an ISM. Overall, the empirical results generally support the proposed model and identify the moderating effect of the effects of user ability. More detailed interpretations and implications of the findings are discussed. The limitations of this study are also discussed to provide directions for future research.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.