• Title/Summary/Keyword: industry default

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Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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A Study on Media Property of Timelapse (타임랩스 영상의 미디어적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Kue-Hyung
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.45
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    • pp.215-233
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    • 2016
  • Timelapse which was appeared Georges Mellieoseu in 1897 was not familiar to people and was not popular in film or broadcast industry in spite of long history. But about 5 years ago, timelapse has become distinguished in all around image art, because it show us aesthetic extraction of time and variation of color in Vimeo and Youtube which neve been seen before. So nowadays latest camera has come out with default menu which can shoot timelapse. But popularity of timelapse seem not development of cinematography technique or appearance of new function but production of image which reflects ages of present with fully accept digital media property. This study is approached from two formative characteristics. First it is strengthen of time which is showed timelapse and analog media from a comparison angle. Second, it is how to extend their sense and imitate images through resolution which can be possible high quality image and color especially with Raw data Through these methodology, this study defines correlation of character of digital media and artistic value of images in timelapse. And also it cleary assures the era of penetrating art has not only visual amusement as known but, also representative value of our ages and technology of media.

The Law of Aircraft Leasing in the People's Republic of China : Achievements and Challenges

  • Yu, Dan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.155-176
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    • 2015
  • Leasing is one of the main methods for Chinese airlines to introduce aircraft from overseas manufactures, and this method has been used for more than 30 years by Chinese airlines. Aircraft leasing in essence is a kind of financial transaction, through which lessors provide finance to lessees by means of the delivery of possession of the leased aircraft. At the time when China started to introduce aircraft through leasing some 30 years ago, the Chinese domestic laws were very insufficient to regulate these activities. Therefore, a construction process for the law of aircraft leasing was triggered then, and some fruit has been gained. By far, there are rules to adjust the aircraft activities in the aspects of contract, real right, default and bankruptcy remedies. However, as the improvement of any system must undergo a process of exploration, the law of aircraft leasing in China is still faced up with many challenges. Especially with the emergence and prosperous of domestic leasing industry, new transaction structures and models of aircraft leasing have emerged, which leaves new challenges to current legal system. On the basis of introducing the history and main contents of Chinese legal regime of aircraft leasing, this paper offers an analysis of achievements and challenges on present Chinese laws in the aspects of contract, real right and remedies.

Financial Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads for Financial Institutions Headquartered in the Republic of Korea (국내 금융기관들의 신용부도스왑 스프레드에 대한 재무적 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.338-357
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    • 2012
  • This study investigated any possible financial attributes of the CDS spreads of a firm belonging to financial industries headquartered in the Republic of Korea. There were few studies on this issue, especially for the firms located in emerging capital markets. Coupled with the models such as a multiple regression and a principal component analysis(PCA), this research has identified that only two explanatory variables such as SLOPE and INTER3 (i.e. interaction effect between the BETA and the SLOPE) consistently showed their statistically significant influence on the CDS spreads through the 'selected' model without and with applying a stepwise regression procedure for the robustness. Given the rapid developments of sophisticated financial derivatives, this study may suggest a valuable insight to foreign and domestic investors to identify the possible determinants of CDS spreads at the firm- and/or the industry-level.

A Study on the Consciousness of Economic Ethics in Nursing Students (간호대학생의 경제의식에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Yoon-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.429-445
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : The present study attempted to consider the degree of consciousness of economic ethics in nursing students and the factors affecting these perceptions. Method : A survey was conducted to a total of 874 nursing students from the freshmen and seniors of 11 depts of nursing science nationwide selected by convenience sampling (one for each province, and as for Gangwon-do, two schools were selected from Yeongdong area and Yeongseo area ; 13 male students were excluded). A structured questionnaire was used to collect data on their demographic characteristics and economic ethical perceptions. Collected data were analyzed using the SAS V8.1 statistical package. Result : (1) The score for the economic ethical consciousness of the subjects was $36.76{\pm}10.20$. As for each sub-categories, the score for industry was $7.67{\pm}2.77$; thrift, $7.42{\pm}2.37$; cooperation, $7.41{\pm}2.21$; occupational consciousness, $7.18{\pm}2.20$; and, for consumption, $7.02{\pm}1.90$. The score for the consciousness of consumption was the lowest. (2) Among the demographic characteristics of the subjects, age was found to have a statistically significant positive relation to the consciousness of economic ethics(r=.13, p<.001). The next significant factor was grade: seniors seemed to have a higher economic consciousness in all the sub-categories than freshmen(t=-4.32, p<.001). The number of in-home family has a statistically significant negative correlation with economic attitudes(r=-.15, p<.001). In addition, their economic ethical perceptions were significantly higher with no religion (t=2.14, p<.05); have an unemployed father (t=2.78, p<.05); have credit cards under their own names (t=3.04, p<.05); have ever had overdue card bills (t=4.25, p<.001); have ever had part time job(t=1.74, p<.1) and when they don't live with their parents (t=-2.01, p<.05). 3) A multiple regression analysis was conducted to examine the influential power of the factors affecting the consciousness of economic ethics of the subjects. The factors had more influence on the economic attitudes of the seniors than those of freshmen; in those who having credit cards under their own names than under others; and, in those who have ever experienced credit default than those haven't. Though these factors raised average 3.0 points of economic consciousness, their expository power for the consciousness were low. Conclusion : The nursing students had medium-high consciousness of economic ethics and they seemed to have low consciousness of the proper consumption practices. Their actual life experiences had an influence on their economic attitudes. Therefore, practical programs on economic knowledge should be developed and taught to students systematically at school so that they could have sound consciousness of economic ethics and appropriate knowledge closely related with their real life.

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Understanding the Mismatch between ERP and Organizational Information Needs and Its Responses: A Study based on Organizational Memory Theory (조직의 정보 니즈와 ERP 기능과의 불일치 및 그 대응책에 대한 이해: 조직 메모리 이론을 바탕으로)

  • Jeong, Seung-Ryul;Bae, Uk-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.21-38
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    • 2012
  • Until recently, successful implementation of ERP systems has been a popular topic among ERP researchers, who have attempted to identify its various contributing factors. None of these efforts, however, explicitly recognize the need to identify disparities that can exist between organizational information requirements and ERP systems. Since ERP systems are in fact "packages" -that is, software programs developed by independent software vendors for sale to organizations that use them-they are designed to meet the general needs of numerous organizations, rather than the unique needs of a particular organization, as is the case with custom-developed software. By adopting standard packages, organizations can substantially reduce many of the potential implementation risks commonly associated with custom-developed software. However, it is also true that the nature of the package itself could be a risk factor as the features and functions of the ERP systems may not completely comply with a particular organization's informational requirements. In this study, based on the organizational memory mismatch perspective that was derived from organizational memory theory and cognitive dissonance theory, we define the nature of disparities, which we call "mismatches," and propose that the mismatch between organizational information requirements and ERP systems is one of the primary determinants in the successful implementation of ERP systems. Furthermore, we suggest that customization efforts as a coping strategy for mismatches can play a significant role in increasing the possibilities of success. In order to examine the contention we propose in this study, we employed a survey-based field study of ERP project team members, resulting in a total of 77 responses. The results of this study show that, as anticipated from the organizational memory mismatch perspective, the mismatch between organizational information requirements and ERP systems makes a significantly negative impact on the implementation success of ERP systems. This finding confirms our hypothesis that the more mismatch there is, the more difficult successful ERP implementation is, and thus requires more attention to be drawn to mismatch as a major failure source in ERP implementation. This study also found that as a coping strategy on mismatch, the effects of customization are significant. In other words, utilizing the appropriate customization method could lead to the implementation success of ERP systems. This is somewhat interesting because it runs counter to the argument of some literature and ERP vendors that minimized customization (or even the lack thereof) is required for successful ERP implementation. In many ERP projects, there is a tendency among ERP developers to adopt default ERP functions without any customization, adhering to the slogan of "the introduction of best practices." However, this study asserts that we cannot expect successful implementation if we don't attempt to customize ERP systems when mismatches exist. For a more detailed analysis, we identified three types of mismatches-Non-ERP, Non-Procedure, and Hybrid. Among these, only Non-ERP mismatches (a situation in which ERP systems cannot support the existing information needs that are currently fulfilled) were found to have a direct influence on the implementation of ERP systems. Neither Non-Procedure nor Hybrid mismatches were found to have significant impact in the ERP context. These findings provide meaningful insights since they could serve as the basis for discussing how the ERP implementation process should be defined and what activities should be included in the implementation process. They show that ERP developers may not want to include organizational (or business processes) changes in the implementation process, suggesting that doing so could lead to failed implementation. And in fact, this suggestion eventually turned out to be true when we found that the application of process customization led to higher possibilities of failure. From these discussions, we are convinced that Non-ERP is the only type of mismatch we need to focus on during the implementation process, implying that organizational changes must be made before, rather than during, the implementation process. Finally, this study found that among the various customization approaches, bolt-on development methods in particular seemed to have significantly positive effects. Interestingly again, this finding is not in the same line of thought as that of the vendors in the ERP industry. The vendors' recommendations are to apply as many best practices as possible, thereby resulting in the minimization of customization and utilization of bolt-on development methods. They particularly advise against changing the source code and rather recommend employing, when necessary, the method of programming additional software code using the computer language of the vendor. As previously stated, however, our study found active customization, especially bolt-on development methods, to have positive effects on ERP, and found source code changes in particular to have the most significant effects. Moreover, our study found programming additional software to be ineffective, suggesting there is much difference between ERP developers and vendors in viewpoints and strategies toward ERP customization. In summary, mismatches are inherent in the ERP implementation context and play an important role in determining its success. Considering the significance of mismatches, this study proposes a new model for successful ERP implementation, developed from the organizational memory mismatch perspective, and provides many insights by empirically confirming the model's usefulness.

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Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.