• Title/Summary/Keyword: industry default

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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Analysis of the maintenance margin level in the KOSPI200 futures market (KOSPI200 선물 유지증거금률에 대한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Joon;Kim, Young-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.85-95
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    • 2005
  • The margin level in the futures market platys an important role in balancing the default probability with the investor's opportunity cost. In this paper, we investigate whether the movement of KOSPI200 futures daily prices can be modeled with the extreme value theory. Based on this investigation, we examine the validity of the margin level set by the extreme value theory. Moreover, we propose an expected profit-maximization model for securities companies. In this model, the extreme value theory is used for cost estimation, and a regression analysis is used for revenue calculation. Computational results are presented to compare the extreme value distribution with the empirical distribution of margin violation in KOSPI200 and to examine the suitability of the expected profit-maximization model.

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Smartphone racing game controller UX testing (스마트폰 레이싱 게임 조작기 UX 평가)

  • Chung, Donghun
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to evaluate smartphone gaming controllers. Diffusion of smartphone makes its users to play smartphone games in ease and comfort and its built-in sensors deliver new gaming experience to the users. Based on the concept how the controller system is important, the current research also implies the importance of customizing service which gives users a selection to deploy a controller. To explore the interaction effect of controllers and customizing on interactivity, flow, usability, attitude, and intention, the research constructs 3(gyroscope, wheel, and button controllers) by 2(default and customizing setting) experimental design and forty college students played Gameloft's Asphalt 8: Airborne in a within subject design. The results showed that interaction effect and customizing main effect were not found, but controller main effect was statistically significant. Button controller is superior to those other two in more detail. It implies that it is still not useful to play new types of gaming controller, and a customizing service. It suggests that smartphone games should more focus on improving optimal user experience with built-in sensor controllers.

Important Role of Power Exchange in Conducting Futures Market for Stabilizing Electric Power Industry in Transition

  • Yoon, Yong T.
    • KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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    • v.3A no.1
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2003
  • At present the electric power industry in Korea is going through a major restructuring process. The restructuring is motivated by a desire to reduce electricity supply costs, to attract new in-vestment in modern generation, transmission and distribution facilities, and to stimulate innovation in the wholesale production and the retail supply of electricity. The experience to date shows that restructuring of electric power industry in the US, however, is marred with a number of problematic market performances including unreasonably high prices at wholesale. This paper investigates the important role of Power Exchange for stabilizing electric power industry in transition by offering various financial products. These financial products are used for risk hedging by the market participants. The paper focuses on the risk hedging by an individual supplier and derives an explicit decision rule that incorporates the attitude towards the risks. In addition to providing the financial products for risk hedging by market participants, the Power Exchange plays another very important role of financial safeguard system. Because of its unique characteristics, the Power Exchange is well suited for financial surveillance where it performs the early detection of unsound financial (and to a large extent operational) practices on the part of any system users and protect the system integrity and the market participants from the consequences of a default in the clearing structure.

Governance Innovation and Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence from the Automotive Industry in Pakistan

  • HUSSAIN, Malik Azhar;WAQAR, Amjad;ANAM, Saddiq;HAFEEZULLAH, Khan;ASMA, Zafar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.399-408
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    • 2022
  • Corporate governance and innovation have been a hot topic in recent boardroom talks, whether in the trade or manufacturing industries. Governance innovations are highly significant for the survival of the motor vehicle industry like Honda, Nissan, New General Motors, and Toyota. The study chooses the motor vehicle industry which crosses the age of a century and sufficient corroborative support exists with the perspective of distinctive objectives. Using the population of all the automobile companies listed on the Pakistan stock exchange (PSX), we distill automobile companies to evaluate the firm performance using the panel data regression approach. The results show that there is a significant relationship between gender diversity, audit committees, and firm performance. Further, board size also has a positive impact on firm performance. We identify that the governance mechanism of firms found in default of the frequency of audit committee meetings. By considering results, only limited knowledge of finance directors and also very few numbers of female directors are on the board. Empirical findings of this work might be useful for policymakers in attempting to draft a corporate governance framework better able to monitor the financial performance of firms through female directors and also serve as a catalyst for the regulators of electric vehicles.

Comparative Analysis of Survival Period by Technological Capabilities of Innovative SMEs in the Service Industry (기술수준에 따른 서비스업 혁신 중소기업의 생존기간 비교분석)

  • Lee, Jun-won
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2021
  • The survival period according to technological capability was analyzed for about 22,500 innovative SMEs in the service industry. The survival period was defined as the occurrence of overdue and default, and the technological capability was divided into two clusters. As a result of estimating the survival period according to technological capability through Kaplan-Meier analysis, it was confirmed that the estimated survival period of T1-T4 grade service innovative SMEs was significantly greater in both overdue and default. As a result of the analysis of the Cox proportional hazard model applying the control variable, it was confirmed that the higher technological capability, the lower the risk in the group of start-up companies. However, in the group of non-start-up companies the technological capability did not significantly affect the survival period, and the influence of the variables related to the size of the company was found to increase. Therefore, the technological capability is meaningful as additional information that has a significant effect on the survival period of innovative SMEs in the start-up companies group of service industry. In addition, it was concluded that it is necessary to reflect the technological capability when establishing the SME support and promotion policy of the start-up companies group in the service industry.

Effect that Corporate Governance in Cash Flow : Focus on Entertainment Industry (기업의 지배구조가 현금흐름에 미치는 영향 : 엔터테인먼트 산업을 중심으로)

  • Ko, Dong-Won
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2010
  • So that this study confirms going concern's availability laying focus on entertainment industry possibility of default judge, focus in cash flow that is important accounting indicator pointer to do cause of bankruptcy, payable capability, insolvent estimate etc and analyzed effect that governance gets in cash flow. The sampling period was from 2005 to 2008 and the number of samples was 44. In analysis technique, implement basic statistical, t-test, correlation, regression. Is as following if summarize result. CFO, for debt ratio, negative(-), enterprise size was exerting positive(+), and cash flow by investment activity enterprise size negative(-) influence reach.

A Study on the Greenhouse Gas Emission and Reduction Measures of Domestic Magnesium Production Process (국내 마그네슘 생산공정의 온실가스 배출량 산정 및 감축방안 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Nam;Im, Jin-Ah;Yoo, Kyung-Seun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.219-230
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    • 2014
  • In this study, greenhouse gas emission of magnesium industry was estimated and the reduction potential of the greenhouse gas emission was evaluated with reduction technologies. Default value of IPCC guideline was used to calculate the greenhouse gas emission and $SF_6$ alternatives were considered in reduction potential. Import of magnesium ingot was 22,806 ton in 2013, which will be expected to increase to 81,700 ton with 20% rate in 2020. Magnesium ingot was consumed to produce magnesium alloy in diecasting process. Recently, commercial production of crown magnesium and magensium plate began. Based on ingot consumption, $CO_2$ emission of domestic magnesium industry was estimated to 504,000 ton, which is about 0.79% of domestic industrial emissions. Reduction potential of diecasting process was estimated to 489,320 ton by changing SF6 to alternative gases such as HFC-134a, Novec-612. Emission factor of Tier 3 level should be developed to enhance the accuracy of greeenhouse gas emission of magnesium industry.

Credit Card Interest Rate with Imperfect Information (불완전 정보와 신용카드 이자율)

  • Song, Soo-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.213-226
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    • 2005
  • Adverse selection is a heavily scrutinized subject within the financial intermediary industry. Consensus is reached regarding its effect on the loan interest rate. Despite the similar features of financial service offered by the credit card, we still have controversy regarding credit card interest rate on how is adverse selection incurred with the change of interest rate. Thus, this paper explores how does the adverse selection, if ever, take place and affect the credit card interest rate. Information asymmetry regarding the credit card users' type represented by the default probability is assumed. The users are assumed to be rational in that they want to minimize the per unit dollar expense associated with the commercial transaction and financing between the two typical payment methods, cash and credit card. Suppliers, i.e. credit card companies, would like to maximize their profit and would be better off with more pervasive use of credit cards over the cash. Then we could show that the increasing credit card interest rate is subject to the adverse selection, sharing the same tenet with that of the bank loan interest rate proposed by Stiglitz and Weiss. Hence the current theory predicts that credit card market also suffers from adverse selection with increasing interest rate.

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Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.