• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.93-100
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• 2007

This study was conducted to determine the effects of different levels (10, 12 and 15%) of crude protein (CP) in total mixed ration (TMR) on dry matter intake, digestibility and nitrogen balance of Korean black goats in the stage of early pregnancy and to obtain information on their optimal dietary levels of CP. In the present study, 12 Does of Korean black goats in the early pregnancy were allotted to four unreplicated groups by dietary level of CP and then they were housed in individual metabolism cages with completely randomized design throughout 30 days with 20 days adaptation and 10 days collection periods. Does in Control were fed a conventional diet and does in TMR10, TMR12 and TMR15 were fed a diet adjusted to about 10, 12 and 15% CP, respectively. Dry matter(DM) contents ranged from 89 to 91% in treatments. There were no differences fur fiber contents among three CP levels of TMR, showing that ADF and NDF had 18.57 to 19.85, and 53.41 to 54.80, respectively. Crude protein contents for three TMR treaements had 10.61, 12.15 and 14.97%, respectively. However, non-fibrous carbohydrate (NFC) contents decreased with increasing CP levels in treatments. Meanwhile, Intakes of DM, nutrients and digestible nutrients were significantly (p<0.05) higher in TMR15 and control than in TMR10 and TMR12. Moreover, DM intake per metabolic body weight and theit ratio per body weight was significantly (p<0.05) higher for control and TMR15 than other treatments. DM digestibility was not significantly different among treatments, but ether extract digestibility of treatments was significantly (p<0.05) higher than that of control, but there was no significant difference among treatments. Nitrogen retention significantly (p<0.05) increased with increasing CP levels in TMR, and TMR15 was highest among treatments. Our results showed that the increasing CP levels in TMR increased DM intake and nitrogen retention and suggested that the optimal dietary CP levels under TMR feeding system in early pregnant Korean black goats could be estimated for at least 15%.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.337-349
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• 1992

The Tertiary basins in Korea have widely been studied by numerous researchers producing individual results in sedimentology, paleontology, stratigraphy, volcanic petrology and structural geology, but interdisciplinary studies, inter-basin analysis and basin-forming process have not been carried out yet. Major work of this study is to elucidate evidences obtained from different parts of a basin as well as different Tertiary basins (Pohang, Changgi, Eoil, Haseo and Ulsan basins) in order to build up the correlation between the basins, and an overall picture of the basin architecture and evolution in Korea. According to the paleontologic evidences the geologic age of the Pohang marine basin is dated to be late Lower Miocence to Middle Miocene, whereas other non-marine basins are older as being either Early Miocene or Oligocene(Lee, 1975, 1978: Bong, 1984: Chun, 1982: Choi et al., 1984: Yun et al., 1990: Yoon, 1982). However, detailed ages of the Tertiary sediments, and their correlations in a basin and between basins are still controversial, since the basins are separated from each other, sedimentary sequence is disturbed and intruded by voncanic rocks, and non-marine sediments are not fossiliferous to be correlated. Therefore, in this work radiometric, magnetostratigraphic, and biostratigraphic data was integrated for the refinement of chronostratigraphy and synopsis of stratigraphy of Tertiary basins of Korea. A total of 21 samples including 10 basaltic, 2 porphyritic, and 9 andesitic rocks from 4 basins were collected for the K-Ar dating of whole rock method. The obtained age can be grouped as follows: $14.8{\pm}0.4{\sim}15.2{\pm}0.4Ma$, $19.9{\pm}0.5{\sim}22.1{\pm}0.7Ma$, $18.0{\pm}1.1{\sim}20.4+0.5Ma$, and $14.6{\pm}0.7{\sim}21.1{\pm}0.5Ma$. Stratigraphically they mostly fall into the range of Lower Miocene to Mid Miocene. The oldest volcanic rock recorded is a basalt (911213-6) with the age of $22.05{\pm}0.67Ma$ near Sangjeong-ri in the Changgi (or Janggi) basin and presumed to be formed in the Early Miocene, when Changgi Conglomerate began to deposit. The youngest one (911214-9) is a basalt of $14.64{\pm}0.66Ma$ in the Haseo basin. This means the intrusive and extrusive rocks are not a product of sudden voncanic activity of short duration as previously accepted but of successive processes lasting relatively long period of 8 or 9 Ma. The radiometric age of the volcanic rocks is not randomly distributed but varies systematically with basins and localities. It becomes generlly younger to the south, namely from the Changgi basin to the Haseo basin. The rocks in the Changgi basin are dated to be from $19.92{\pm}0.47$ to $22.05{\pm}0.67Ma$. With exception of only one locality in the Geumgwangdong they all formed before 20 Ma B.P. The Eoil basalt by Tateiwa in the Eoil basin are dated to be from $20.44{\pm}0.47$ to $18.35{\pm}0.62Ma$ and they are younger than those in the Changgi basin by 2~4 Ma. Specifically, basaltic rocks in the sedimentary and voncanic sequences of the Eoil basin can be well compared to the sequence of associated sedimentary rocks. Generally they become younger to the stratigraphically upper part. Among the basin, the Haseo basin is characterized by the youngest volcanic rocks. The basalt (911214-7) which crops out in Jeongja-ri, Gangdong-myon, Ulsan-gun is $16.22{\pm}0.75Ma$ and the other one (911214-9) in coastal area, Jujon-dong, Ulsan is $14.64{\pm}0.66Ma$ old. The radiometric data are positively collaborated with the results of paleomagnetic study, pull-apart basin model and East Sea spreading theory. Especially, the successively changing age of Eoil basalts are in accordance with successively changing degree of rotation. In detail, following results are discussed. Firstly, the porphyritic rocks previously known as Cretaceous basement (911213-2, 911214-1) show the age of $43.73{\pm}1.05$ 및 $49.58{\pm}1.13Ma$(Eocene) confirms the results of Jin et al. (1988). This means sequential volcanic activity from Cretaceous up to Lower Tertiary. Secondly, intrusive andesitic rocks in the Pohang basin, which are dated to be $21.8{\pm}2.8Ma$ (Jin et al., 1988) are found out to be 15 Ma old in coincindence with the age of host strata of 16.5 Ma. Thirdly, The Quaternary basalt (911213-5 and 911213-6) of Tateiwa(1924) is not homogeneous regarding formation age and petrological characteristics. The basalt in the Changgi basin show the age of $19.92{\pm}0.47$ and $22.05{\pm}0.67$ (Miocene). The basalt (911213-8) in Sangjond-ri, which intruded Nultaeri Trachytic Tuff is dated to be $20.55{\pm}0.50Ma$, which means Changgi Group is older than this age. The Yeonil Basalt, which Tateiwa described as Quaternary one shows different age ranging from Lower Miocene to Upper Miocene(cf. Jin et al., 1988: sample no. 93-33: $10.20{\pm}0.30Ma$). Therefore, the Yeonil Quarterary basalt should be revised and divided into different geologic epochs. Fourthly, Yeonil basalt of Tateiwa (1926) in the Eoil basin is correlated to the Yeonil basalt in the Changgi basin. Yoon (1989) intergrated both basalts as Eoil basaltic andesitic volcanic rocks or Eoil basalt (Yoon et al., 1991), and placed uppermost unit of the Changgi Group. As mentioned above the so-called Quarternary basalt in the Eoil basin are not extruded or intruaed simultaneously, but differentiatedly (14 Ma~25 Ma) so that they can not be classified as one unit. Fifthly, the Yongdong-ri formation of the Pomgogri Group is intruded by the Eoil basalt (911214-3) of 18.35~0.62 Ma age. Therefore, the deposition of the Pomgogri Group is completed before this age. Referring petrological characteristics, occurences, paleomagnetic data, and relationship to other Eoil basalts, it is most provable that this basalt is younger than two others. That means the Pomgogri Group is underlain by the Changgi Group. Sixthly, mineral composition of the basalts and andesitic rocks from the 4 basins show different ground mass and phenocryst. In volcanic rocks in the Pohang basin, phenocrysts are pyroxene and a small amount of biotite. Those of the Changgi basin is predominant by Labradorite, in the Eoil by bytownite-anorthite and a small amount pyroxene.

• The Journal of Natural Sciences
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.83-121
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• 2004

This study was carried out to examine how solid the production foundation of rice in Chung-Nam Province is, and, if not, to probe alternative measures through the size of farms specializing in rice, of which direction would be a pivot of rice industry-oriented policy. The results obtained can be summarized as follows : 1. The amount of rice production in Chung-Nam Province is highest in Korea and the size of paddy field area is the second largest : This implying that the probability that rice production in Chung-Nam Province would be severely influenced by a global trend of market conditions. The number of farms specializing in rice becoming the core group of rice farming account for 7.7 percent of the total number of farm household in Korea. Average field area financial support which had been input to farm household by Government had a noticeable effect on the improvement of the policy of farm-size program. 2. Farm-size program in Chung-Nam Province established from 1980 to 2002 in creased the cultivation size of paddy field to 19,484 hectares, and this program enhanced the buying and selling of farmland and the number of farmland bargain reached 6,431 household and 16,517 hectares, respectively, in 1995-2002. Meanwhile, long-term letting and hiring of farmland appeared so active that the bargain acreage reached 6,970 hectares, and farm involved was 7,059 households, however, the farm-exchange-and-unity program did not satisfy our expectation, because the retirement farm operators reluctantly participated to sell their farms. Another reason that had delayed the bargain of farms rested on the general category of social complication attendant upon the exchange and unity operation for scattered farm. Such difficulties would work negative effects out to carry on the target of farm-size work in general. 3. The following measures were presented to propel the farm-size promotion program : a. Occupation shift project, followed by the social security program for retirement and elderly farm operators, should be promptly established and also a number of types of incentives for promoting the letting and hiring work and farm-exchange-and-unity program would also be set up. b. To establish the effective key system of rice production, all the farm operators should increase the unit area yield of rice and lower the production cost. To do so, a great deal of production teams of rice equipped with managerial techniques and capabilities need to be organized. And, also, there should be appropriate arrays of facilities including information system. This plan is desirable to be in line with a diversity of the structural implement of regional integration based on farm system building. c. To extend the size of farm and to improve farm management, we have to devise the enlargement of individual size of farm for maximized management and the utilization of farm-size grouping method. In conclusion, it can be said that the farm-size project in Chung-Nam Province which has continued since the 1980s was satisfactorily achieved. However, we still have a lot of problems to be solved to break down the barrier for attainment of the desirable farm-size operation work.. Farm-size project has fairly close relation with farm specialization in rice and, thus, the positive support for farm household including the integrated program for both retirement farmers and off-farm operators should be considered to pursue the progressive development of the farm-size program, which is key means to successful achievement of rice farming enforcement in Chung-Nam Province.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.29-45
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• 2012

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.243-255
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• 2014

This study was investigated to estimate the relations between benthic environments and benthic polychaetous community from April 2012 to February 2013. Twenty four stations were selected sequentially with Seomjin River Estuary from the northern part of Gwangyang Bay. The study area could be divided into three characteristic zones based on salinity, water temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH such as Saline Water Zone (SWZ), Brackish Water Zone (BWZ), and Fresh Water Zone (FWZ). Salinity was above 30.0 psu in SWZ, drastically decreased toward inland in BWZ, and nearly zero psu in FWZ. SWZ showed its specific environmental characters like that water temperature fluctuated with little seasonal change and DO showed the lowest values among three zones, and pH maintained as consistent value without seasonal fluctuation. In FWZ, on the other hand, water temperature showed high seasonal fluctuation, DO showed the highest values among three zones, and pH fluctuated greatly. In sedimentary environment, mud, sand and sand/gravel were found as dominant sedimentary deposits in SWZ, BWZ and FWZ, respectively. Organic matter content and AVS in surface sediment were high in SWZ, while Chl-a content high in FWZ. This study area showed a marked environmental difference between FWZ and SWZ as follows: FWZ has coarse sediment and low salinity, low organic matter content, low AVS in FWZ but SWZ has fine sediment and high salinity, high organic matter content and AVS. Species number and mean density of benthic polychaete community was highest in Saline Water Zone (SWZ), drastically decreased in Brackish Water Zone (BWZ), and lowest in Fresh Water Zone (FWZ). Dominant polychates above 5.0% of individual numbers were 6 taxa. Lumbrineris longifolia, Prionospio cirrifera, Tharyx sp. occurred as main dominant species of all study periods, and Hediste sp., Praxillella affinis, Tylorrhynchus sp. dominantly occurred at some seasons. Inhabiting areas of dominant species were separated characteristically. Representative species in SWZ were Lumbrineris longifolia, Tharyx sp., Mediomastus sp.. Wide-appearing species between SWZ and BWZ were Prionospio cirrifera, Heteromastus filiformis, Aricidea sp.. Characteristic species in FWZ were Tylorrhynchus sp. and Hediste sp.. As the results of cluster analysis and nMDS based on the species composition of polychaetous community, unique station groups were established in SWZ and FWZ. Stations in BWZ were sub-divided into several groups with season. Pearson's correlation analysis and PCA between benthic environments and ecological characteristics of polychaetous community showed that salinity, sediment composition, organic content and dissolved oxygen played a role to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of the ecological characteristics as species number, mean density, abundance of main species, and ecological indices.

• The Journal of Natural Sciences
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• v.1
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• pp.61-113
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• 1987

The increasing emphasis placed on the production of fine turf for lawns, golf courses, parks, and other recreational sites has led to many unsolved problems as to how such turf could be best established and mainteined. For this purpose, a series of experiments were conducted under con ditions of pot and field. The results obtained were as follows EXPERIMENT I. The effect of nitrogen fertilizer and clipping interval on Zoysia japonica. 1. Increasing the rate of nitrogen and frequent clipping increased tiller number of Zoysis japonica and the maximum number of tillers were obtained from 700 kg N application and freqnent clippings (10 days interval ) in October. Treatment of 350kg N with 10 days clipping interval increased tillers much more than those of 700 kgN with 20 and 30 days clipping intervals. 2. The average number of green leaves occurred during the growth period maximized by applying 700 kg N and clipping 10 days interval. 3. Increasing tiller numbers significantly decreased tops DM weight per tiller by clipping plants at interval of 10 and 20 days, irrespective of nitrogen applied, and with nil N, at the interval of 30 days. By applying 700 kg N, however, top DM weight per tiller increased as the number of tillers increased consistently. 4. The highest top DM weight was achieved from late August to early September by applying 350 and 700kgN. 5. During the growth period, differences in unders ( stolon + root ) DM weight occurred bynitrogen application were found between nil N and two applied nitrogen levels, whereas, at the same level of nitrogen applied, the increase in stolon DM weight enhanced by lengthening the clipping interval to 30 days. 6. Nitrogen efficiency to green leaves, stolon nodes and DM weight of root with high nitrogen was achieved as clipping interval was shortened. 7. By increasing fertilizer nitrogen rate applied, N content n the leaves and stems of Zoysiajaponica was increased. On the other hand, N content in root and stolon had little effect onfertilizer nitrogen, resulting in the lowest content among plant fractions. The largest content of N was recorded in leaves. Lengthening the clipping interval from 10 or 20 to 30 days tends to decrease the N content in the leaves and stems, whereas this trend did not appeared in stolon androot. 8. A positive correlations between N and K contents in tops and stolon were established andthus K content increased as N content in tops and stolon increased. Meanwhile, P content was not affected by N and clipping treatments. 9. Total soluble carbohydrate content in Zoysia japonica was largest in stolon and stem, and was reduced by increasing fertilizer nitrogen rate. Reduction in total soluble carbohydrate due to increased nitrogen rate was severer in the stolons and stems than in the leaves. 10. Increasing the rate of nitrogen applied increased the number of small and large vascular bundles in leaf blade, but shortened distance among the large vascular bundles. Shortening the clipping interval resulted in increase of the number of large vascular bundles but decrease ofdistance between large vascular bundles.EXPERIMENT II. Growth response of Zoysia japonica imposed by different plant densities. 1. Tiller numbers per unit area increased as plant density heightened. Differences in num ber between densities at higher densities than 120 D were of no significance. 2. Tiller numbers per clone attained by 110 days after transplanting were 126 at 40D,77 at 80D, 67 at 120D, 54 at 160D, and 41 at 200D. A decreasing trend of tiller numbers per clone with increasing density was noticable from 100 days after transplanting onwards. 3. During the growth period, the greatest number of green leaves per unit area were attainedin 90days after transplanting at 160D and 200D, and 100 days after transplanting at 40D, 80Dand 120D. Thus the period to reach the maximum green leaf number with the high plantdensity was likely to be earlier that with the low plant density. 4. Stolon growth up to 80 days after transplaning was relatively slow, but from 80 daysonwards, the growth quickened to range from 1.9 m/clone at 40D to 0.6m/clone at 200Din 200 days after transplanting, these followed by the stolon node produced. 5. Plant density did not affect stolon weight/clone and root weight/clone until 80 daysafter transplanting. 6. DM weight of root was heavier in the early period of growth than that of stolon, butthis trend was reversed in the late period of growth : DM weight of stolon was much higherthan that of root.EXPERIMENT Ill. Vegetative growth of Zoysia japonica and Zoysia matrella as affected by nitrogen and clipping height. 1. When no nitrogen was applied to Zoysia japonica, leaf blade which appeared during theAugust-early September period remained green for a perid of about 10 weeks and even leavesemerged in rate September lived for 42 days. However, leaf longevity did not exceed 8 weeks asnitrogen was applied. In contrast the leaf longevity of Zoysia matrella which emerged during the mid August-earlySeptember period was 11 weeks and, under the nitrogen applied, 9 weeks, indicating that thelife-spen of individual leaf of Zoysia matrella may be longer than that of Zoysia japorica. Clipping height had no effect on the leaf longevity in both grasses. 2. During the July-August period, tiller number, green leaf number and DM weightof Zoysia japonica were increased significantly with fertilizer nitrogen, but were not with twolevel of clipping height. This trend was reversed after late September ; no effect of nitrogen wasappeared. Instead, lax clipping increased tiller number, green leaf number and DM weight. Greenleaves stimulated by lax clipping resulted in the occurrance of more dead leaves in late October. 3. Among the stolons outgrown until early September, the primary stolon was not influencedby nitrogen and clipping treatments to produce only 2-3 stolons. However, 1st branch stoIon asaffected by nitrogen increased significantly, so most of stolons which occurred consisted of 1st branch stolons. 4. Until early September, stolon length obtained at nil nitrogen level was chiefly caused bythe primary stolons. By applying nitrogen, the primary stolons of Zoysia japonica waslonger than 1st branch stolons when severe clipping was involved and in turn, shorter than 1stbranch stolons when lax clipping was concerned. In Zoysia matrella, 1st branch stolons were muchlonger than the primary stolon when turf was clipped severely but in conditions of lax clippingthere was little difference in length between primary and 1st branch stolons. 5. Stolon nodes of both Zoysia japonica and Z. matrella were positively influenced by nit rogen, but no particular increase by imposing clipping height treatment was marked in Zoysiamatrella. Although the stolon of Zoysia japonica grew until late October, the growthstimulated by nitrogen was not so remarkable as to exceed that by nil N.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.63-83
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• 2019

Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.45-68
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• 2022

The central and local governments of the Republic of Korea provided information necessary for disaster response through wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) in order to overcome the pandemic situation in which COVID-19 rapidly spreads. Among all channels for delivering disaster information, wireless emergency alert is the most efficient, and since it adopts the CBS(Cell Broadcast Service) method that broadcasts directly to the mobile phone, it has the advantage of being able to easily access disaster information through the mobile phone without the effort of searching. In this study, the characteristics of wireless emergency alerts sent to Seoul during the past year and one month (January 2020 to January 2021) were derived through various text mining methodologies, and various types of information contained in wireless emergency alerts were analyzed. In addition, it was confirmed through the population mobility by age in the districts of Seoul that what kind of influence it had on the movement behavior of people. After going through the process of classifying key words and information included in each character, text analysis was performed so that individual sent characters can be used as an analysis unit by applying a document cluster analysis technique based on the included words. The number of WEAs sent to the Seoul has grown dramatically since the spread of Covid-19. In January 2020, only 10 WEAs were sent to the Seoul, but the number of the WEAs increased 5 times in March, and 7.7 times over the previous months. Since the basic, regional local government were authorized to send wireless emergency alerts independently, the sending behavior of related to wireless emergency alerts are different for each local government. Although most of the basic local governments increased the transmission of WEAs as the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 increases, the trend of the increase in WEAs according to the increase in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 was different by region. By using structured econometric model, the effect of disaster information included in wireless emergency alerts on population mobility was measured by dividing it into baseline effect and accumulating effect. Six types of disaster information, including date, order, online URL, symptom, location, normative guidance, were identified in WEAs and analyzed through econometric modelling. It was confirmed that the types of information that significantly change population mobility by age are different. Population mobility of people in their 60s and 70s decreased when wireless emergency alerts included information related to date and order. As date and order information is appeared in WEAs when they intend to give information about Covid-19 confirmed cases, these results show that the population mobility of higher ages decreased as they reacted to the messages reporting of confirmed cases of Covid-19. Online information (URL) decreased the population mobility of in their 20s, and information related to symptoms reduced the population mobility of people in their 30s. On the other hand, it was confirmed that normative words that including the meaning of encouraging compliance with quarantine policies did not cause significant changes in the population mobility of all ages. This means that only meaningful information which is useful for disaster response should be included in the wireless emergency alerts. Repeated sending of wireless emergency alerts reduces the magnitude of the impact of disaster information on population mobility. It proves indirectly that under the prolonged pandemic, people started to feel tired of getting repetitive WEAs with similar content and started to react less. In order to effectively use WEAs for quarantine and overcoming disaster situations, it is necessary to reduce the fatigue of the people who receive WEA by sending them only in necessary situations, and to raise awareness of WEAs.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.175-196
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• 2022

Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.55-78
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• 2011

Recently strategic alliance between business firms has become prevalent to overcome increasing competitive threats and to supplement resource limitation of individual firms. As one of allianced sales promotion activities, a new type of discount program, so called "Alliance Card Discount", is introduced with the partnership of credit cards and loyalty cards. The program mainly pursues short-term sales growth by larger discount scheme while spends less through cost share among alliance partners. Thus this program can be regarded as cost efficient discount promotion. But because there is no solid evidence that it can really deliver profitable sales growth, an empirical study for its effects on sales and profit should be conducted. This study has two basic research questions concerning the effects of allianced discount program ; 1)the possibility of sales increase 2) the profitability of the discount driven sales. In F&B industry, sales increase mainly comes from increased guest count. Especially in family restaurants, to increase the number of guests we need to enlarge the size of visitor group (number of visitors for one group) because customers visit by group in a special occasion. And because they pay the bill by group(table), the increase of sales per table is a key measure for sales improvement. The past researches for price & discount sensitivity and reference discount rate explain that price sensitive consumers have narrow reference discount zone and make rational purchase decision. Differently from all time discount scheme of regular sales promotions, the alliance card discount program only provides the right to get discount like discount coupon. And because it is usually once a month opportunity given by the past month usage level, customers tend to perceive alliance card discount as a rare chance to get. So that we can expect customers try to maximize the discount effect when they use the limited discount opportunity. Considering group visiting practice and low visit frequency of family restaurants, the way to maximize discount effect should be the increase the size of visit group. And their sensitivity to discount and rational consumption behavior defer the additional spending for ordering high price menu, even though they get considerable amount of savings from the discount. From the analysis of sales data paid by alliance discount cards for four months, we found the below. 1) The relation between discount rate and number of guest per table is positive : 25% discount results one additional guest 2) The relation between discount rate and the spending per guest is negative. 3) However, total profit amount per table is increased when discount rate is increased. 4) Reward point accumulation & redemption did not show any significant relationship with the increase of number of guests. These results suggest that the allianced discount program substantially contributes to sales increase and profit improvement by increasing the number of guests per table. Though the spending per guest is decreased by discount rate increase, the total amount of profit per table is improved. It seems the incremental profit by increased guest count offsets the profit decrease. Additional intriguing finding is the point reward system does not have any significant impact on the increase of number of guest, even if the point accumulation & redemption of loyalty program are usually regarded as another saving offers by customers. In sum, because it is proved that allianced discount program with credit cards and loyalty cards is effective to both sales drive and profit increase, the alliance card program could be recommended as strategically buyable program.