• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.117-133
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• 2014

In this study, we analysed impacts of the recent increasing trend of exceedance rainfall thresholds for separation of data set and different research periods using Quantile Regression (QR) approach. And also we performed significant test for time series data using linear regression, Mann-Kendall test and Sen test over the Korean major 8-city. Spring and summer precipitation was tend to significant increase, fall and winter precipitation was tend to decrease, and heavy rainy days in last 30 years have increased from 3.1 to 15 percent average. In addition, according to the annual ranking of rainfall occurs Top $10^{th}$ percentile of precipitation for 3IQR (inter quartile range) of the increasing trend, most of the precipitation at the point of increasing trend was confirmed. Quantile 90% percentile of the average rainfall 43.5mm, the increasing trend 0.1412mm/yr, Quantile 99% percentile of the average rainfall 68.0mm, the increasing trend in the 0.1314mm/yr were analyzed. The results can be used to analyze the recent increasing trend for the annual maximum value series information and the threshold extreme hydrologic information. And also can be used as a basis data for hydraulic structures design on reflect recent changes in climate characteristics.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.249-260
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• 2015

The changes in thermodynamic and dynamic aspects on near (2025~2049) and long-term (2075~2099) future climate changes between the historical run (1979~2005) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run with 20 coupled models which employed in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over East Asia (EA) and the Korean Peninsula are investigated as an extended study for Moon et al. (2014) study noted that the 20 models' multi-model ensemble (MME) and best five models' multi-model ensemble (B5MME) have a different increasing trend of precipitation during the boreal winter and summer, in spite of a similar increasing trend of surface air temperature, especially over the Korean Peninsula. Comparing the MME and B5MME, the dynamic factor (the convergence of mean moisture by anomalous wind) and the thermodynamic factor (the convergence of anomalous moisture by mean wind) in terms of moisture flux convergence are analyzed. As a result, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter and summer over EA. However, over the Korean Peninsula, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter, whereas the thermodynamic factor causes the higher increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal summer. Therefore, it can be noted that the difference between MME and B5MME on the change in precipitation is affected by dynamic (thermodynamic) factor during the boreal winter (summer) over the Korean Peninsula.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.26 no.11
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• pp.639-648
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• 2023

The sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content in the Korea Waters are gradually increased. Especially the increasing trend of annual mean SST in the Korea Water is higher about 2.6 times than the global mean during past 55 years (1968-2022). Before 2010s, the increasing trend of SST was led by winter season in the Korea Waters. However, this pattern was clearly changed after 2010s. The increasing trend of SST during summer is higher about 3.9 times than during winter after 2010s. We examine the long-term variations of several ocean and climate factors to understand the reasons for the long-term pattern changes of SST between summer and winter in recent. Tsushima warm current was significantly strengthened in summer compare to winter during past 33 years (1986-2018). The long-term patterns of Siberian High and East Asian Winter Monsoon were definitely changed before and after early- or mid-2000s. The intensities of those two climate factors was changed to the increasing trend or weakened decreasing trend from the distinctive decreasing trend. In addition, the extreme weather condition like the heatwave days and cold spell days in the Korea significantly increased since mid- or late-2000s. From these results, we can consider that the occurrences of frequent and intensified marine heatwaves during summer and marine cold spells during winter in the Korea Waters might be related with the long-term pattern change of SST, which should be caused by the long-term change of climate factors and advection heat, in a few decade.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.30-41
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• 2016

The amount of groundwater related data is drastically increasing domestically from various sources since 2000. To justify the more expansive continuation of the data acquisition and to derive valuable implications from the data, continued employments of sophisticated and state-of-the-arts statistical tools in the analyses and predictions are important issue. In the present study, we employed a well established machine learning technique of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model in the trend analyses of groundwater level for the long-term change. The major benefit of GPR model is that the model provide not only the future predictions but also the associated uncertainty. In the study, the long-term predictions of groundwater level from the stations of National Groundwater Monitoring Network located within Han River Basin were exemplified as prediction cases based on the GPR model. In addition, a few types of groundwater change patterns were delineated (i.e., increasing, decreasing, and no trend) on the basis of the statistics acquired from GPR analyses. From the study, it was found that the majority of the monitoring stations has decreasing trend while small portion shows increasing or no trend. To further analyze the causes of the trend, the corresponding precipitation data were jointly analyzed by the same method (i.e., GPR). Based on the analyses, the major cause of decreasing trend of groundwater level is attributed to reduction of precipitation rate whereas a few of the stations show weak relationship between the pattern of groundwater level changes and precipitation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.424-424
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• 2017

Several studies of the world have analyzed the regional rainfall trends in large data sets. However, it reported that the long-term behavior of rainfall was different on spatial and temporal scales. The objective of this study is to determine the local trends of rainfall indices in the Yom River Basin, Thailand. The rainfall indices consist of the annual total precipitation (PRCTPOP), number of heavy rainfall days ($R_{10}$), number of very heavy rainfall days ($R_{20}$), consecutive of dry days (CDD), consecutive of wet days (CWD), daily maximum rainfall ($R_{x1}$), five-days maximum rainfall ($R_{x5}$), and total of annual rainy day ($R_{annual}$). The rainfall data from twelve hydrological stations during the period 1965-2015 were used to analysis rainfall trend. The Mann-Kendall test, which is non-parametric test was adopted to detect trend at 95 percent confident level. The results of these data were found that there is only one station an increasing significantly trend in PRCTPOP index. CWD, which the index is expresses longest annual wet days, was exhibited significant negative trend in three locations. Meanwhile, the significant positive trend of CDD that represents longest annual dry spell was exhibited four locations. Three out of thirteen stations had significant decreasing trend in $R_{annual}$ index. In contrast, there is a station statistically significant increasing trend. The analysis of $R_{x1}$ was showed a station significant decreasing trend at located in the middle of basin, while the $R_{x5}$ of the most locations an insignificant decreasing trend. The heavy rainfall index indicated significant decreasing trend in two rainfall stations, whereas was not notice the increase or decrease trends in very heavy rainfall index. The results of this study suggest that the trend signal in the Yom River Basin in the half twentieth century showed the decreasing tendency in both of intensity and frequency of rainfall.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.271-297
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• 2005

Since the 1980s, the western welfare states have experienced a wide spectrum of socio-economic changes; changes in population composition, the economic globalization, the post-industrialization, an increasing flexibility in the labor market. etc. This study examines the trend of poverty in welfare states, and analyzes how those socio-economic changes are related to it. For these purposes, this study first calculates the poverty indices for several years in 10 welfare states using the Luxembourg Income Study database, and then decomposes the index by subpopulation and income sources. Major findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First of all, the welfare state in general has experienced an increasing trend in the degree of poverty since the 1980s. In particular, poverty has greatly intensified in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Many other welfare states including Canada, Germany, Sweden, and Norway have also experienced substantial increases in poverty. The increasing trend of poverty is not wholly due to changes in population composition such as increases in the aging population and one-parent(mother) families. Contrary to the traditional belief, these population groups are not as much poor as the working-age population. In particular, the degree of poverty in the elderly is less severe than in the working-age group. Furthermore, since the 1980s the market income poverty in the aging population has shown a decreasing trend in many welfare states. The degree and trend of poverty in one-parent families vary greatly across countries, owing to the labor market and income transfer policies. The most important reason for the increasing poverty trend in the welfare state is that the degree of poverty has been deepening in the working-age population. Especially, the market income poverty of the working-age population has considerably increased in every country except the Netherlands. Structural changes in the economy and the labor market may drive the increasing trend of poverty. Further studies and deliberate anti-poverty policies are needed to tackle the factors relating to the increase in the market income poverty.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.257-276
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• 2011

This study aimed to analyze the changes of extreme temperature indices in order to investigate impacts of urbanization on changes of extreme temperature. It was analyzed 16 indices related to extreme temperature indices to 60 weather stations in South Korea. Extreme temperature indices-related summer mostly increased, and its related to winter decreased. Percentile-based indices were clearly increased more than fixed-based indices as a tropical night. Decreasing trend of extreme temperature indices related to winter had more clear than increasing trend of extreme temperature indices related to summer. It was similar to trend that urban temperature was more clearly increased in winter than summer. Decreasing trend of indices-related daily minimum temperature had more clear than increasing trend of indices-related daily maximum temperature. Also, it was similar to increasing trend of minimum temperature had more clear than maximum temperature.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.63-75
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• 2018

This study analyzed the long-term linear trends of the sea surface height around the Korea marginal seas for the period of 1993~2016 by using quantile regression. We found significant difference about 2~3 mm/year for the linear trend between OLS (ordinary least square) and median (50%) quantile regression especially in the Yellow Sea, which is affected by extreme events. Each area shows different trend for each quantile (lower (1%), median (50%) and upper (99%)). Most areas of the Yellow Sea show increasing trend in both low and upper quantile, but significant "upward divergence tendency". This implies that significant increasing trend of upper quantile is higher than that of lower quantile in this area. Meanwhile, South Sea of Korea generally shows "upward convergence tendency" representing that increasing trend of upper quantile is lower than that of lower quantile. This study also confirmed that these tendencies can be eliminated by removing major tidal components from the harmonic analysis. Therefore, it is assumed that the regional characteristics are related to the long term change of tide amplitude.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07a
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• pp.501-503
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• 2001

Electric power consumption is highly increasing as the social trend requiring comfortable life, the population in a big city and the industrial development. Therefore it has become to be very important to supply the stable high-quality power. As these trend, the underground power transmission facility is highly increasing in the center of a city. As the proportion to increase facility in tunnel, the fire prevention measures of the underground transmission line become very important.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2007.10a
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• pp.57-60
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• 2007

Monthly mean data of ${\AA}ngstr{\ddot{o}}m$ exponent and Aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) measurements over the East Asian waters were analyzed. Increasing trend of the satellite-derived ${\AA}ngstr{\ddot{o}}m$ exponent from 1998 to 2004 was found while AOT mean was observed stable during the same period. The trend of ${\AA}ngstr{\ddot{o}}m$ exponent is then interpreted as increase in fraction of small aerosol particles to give quantitative estimates on the variability of aerosols. The mean increase is evaluated to be $4{\sim}5%$ over the 7-year period in terms of the contribution of small particles to the total AOT, or sub-micron fraction (SMF). Possibilities of the observed trend arising from the sensor calibration or algorithm performance are carefully checked, which confirm our belief that this observed trend is rather a real fact than an artifact due to data processing. Another time series of SMF data (2000-2005) estimated from the fine-mode fraction (FMF) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) supports this observation yet with different calibration system and retrieval algorithms.