• Title/Summary/Keyword: incidence estimation

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Lifetime Risk Assessment of Lung Cancer Incidence for Nonsmokers in Japan Considering the Joint Effect of Radiation and Smoking Based on the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors

  • Shimada, Kazumasa;Kai, Michiaki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2021
  • Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

Impact of Climate Change on Yield Loss Caused by Bacterial Canker on Kiwifruit in Korea (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 참다래 궤양병 피해 예측)

  • Do, Ki Seok;Chung, Bong Nam;Choi, Kyung San;Ahn, Jeong Joon;Joa, Jae Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2016
  • We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.

RADARSAT SAR Investigations of Lineament and Spring Water in Cheju Island (RADARSAT SAR 자료를 이용한 제주도 선구조 연구 및 용천 특성 연구)

  • 원중선;류주형;지광훈
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.325-342
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    • 1998
  • Two RADARSAT SAR images with different modes acquired by Canadian Space Agency to test the effectiveness of geological lineament extraction and spring water detection over the Cheju Island. Geological lineaments are poorly developed this basalt dominant volcanic island, but more linear features can be extracted when SAR and TM images are simultaneously analyzed than when TM image alone is used. This results mainly owe to the facts that RADARSAT SAR systems are able to provide data with different frequencies, azimuth, and incidence angles. Distribution of spring water along coast is poorly correlated with geological lineaments or drainage pattern, but those in middle range of mountain region are developed along geological lineaments. Detection of spring water using remotely sensed images are turned out to be very difficult to achieve. Radial shaped sea surface temperature anomaly derived from TM thermal band should be the best candidate for spring water, but the resolution is not high enough. We also investigate the normalized radar cross section (or sigma naught) converted from RADARSAT and ERS-1 SAR data but to discriminate the spring water effectively except where relatively large water mass is observed on land side. Speckle noise and irregularity in physical sea surface condition are the serious obstacles for this application. ERS-1 SAR image acquired in low incidence angle was more useful for geological lineament estimation and water body study than RADARSAT SAR images with high incidence angles. Therefore the selection of incidence angle is critical in geological and spring water applications of SAR images, and low incidence angles less than about 30$^{\circ}$ are recommended to monitor the Cheju volcanic island.

Estimation methods and interpretation of competing risk regression models (경쟁 위험 회귀 모형의 이해와 추정 방법)

  • Kim, Mijeong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1231-1246
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    • 2016
  • Cause-specific hazard model (Prentice et al., 1978) and subdistribution hazard model (Fine and Gray, 1999) are mostly used for the right censored survival data with competing risks. Some other models for survival data with competing risks have been subsequently introduced; however, those models have not been popularly used because the models cannot provide reliable statistical estimation methods or those are overly difficult to compute. We introduce simple and reliable competing risk regression models which have been recently proposed as well as compare their methodologies. We show how to use SAS and R for the data with competing risks. In addition, we analyze survival data with two competing risks using five different models.

Assessment of Midwifery Student Preparation for Performing the Role of Breast Cancer Educator

  • Bien, Agnieszka Maria;Korzynska-Pietas, Magdalena;Iwanowicz-Palus, Grazyna Jolanta
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.14
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    • pp.5633-5638
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Our research project aimed at presenting midwifery student self-assessment of performing the role of breast cancer prevention educator. Materials and Methods: Investigations were carried out in 2011 at the Medical University of Lublin in Poland, and Katolieke Hogeschool of Kortrijk in Belgium, after obtaining approval of the ethical committee of Polish Midwives Association (III/EC/2011/PMA). The project involved a total of 155 midwifery students, made up of 95 from Poland, and 60 from Belgium. Relations between opposing characteristics were tested with Chi-square ($x^2$) test for independent traits. To assess the dependence relation between the examined variables Pearson's corrected coefficient was used. Data base and statistics were carried out with computer software STATISTICA 9.0 (StatSoftPoland). Conclusions: Student knowledge on prevention against breast cancer was unsatisfactory. The students place of residence determined their self-estimation of personal knowledge of breast cancer prevention and diagnosing methods to assess the incidence of the disease, this knowledge being better with the students of Lublin. Better self-estimation in the students of Lublin of their personal knowledge on factors rising the risk of breast cancer, such as alimentation method, application of oral contraceptives and breast feeding was found than in Belgian students.

Immunological Monitoring of Urinary Aflatoxins and Estimation of Liver Cancer Incidence in Koreans

  • Choi, Mun-Jung;You, Young-Chan;Kim, Hyung-Sik;Lee, Byung-Mu
    • BMB Reports
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 1996
  • Polyclonal antiserum R101 against aflatoxin $B_1$ ($AFB_1$) was raised in New Zealand white rabbits after injection of bovine serum albumin-$AFB_1$ conjugate. Competitive ELISA (enzyme linked immuno-sorbent assay) demonstrated that antiserum R101 has the highest binding for $AFB_1$ (50% inhibition at 170 fmol) and aflatoxicol II (50% inhibition at 112 fmol). It also reacts with other aflatoxins such as $AFB_2$, $AFG_1$, $AFG_2$, and aflatoxin metabolites ($AFM_1$, $AFM_2$, $AFP_1$, and $AFQ_1$), but it does not cross-react with $AFG_2a$. Using this antiserum, aflatoxins were quantitated in 100 urine samples of undergraduate students at the College of Pharmacy, Sung Kyun Kwan University, Republic of Korea. By ELISA, $AFB_1$ and its metabolites were detected in human urine samples (N=100, male=89, female=11, ages=20~31 yrs) with a range of 1.4~200.6 ng/kg/day (mean$\pm$SD=$18.11{\pm}33.01\;ng\;AFB_1/kg/day$ in males, $3.82{\pm}2.65\;ng/kg/day$ in females). Assuming that urinary excretion is about 7.6% of $AFB_1$ intake (Groopman et al., 1992), we estimated that Koreans were daily exposed to a total dietary $AFB_1$ of $240.20{\pm}438.67\;ng/kg/day$ in males and $50.35{\pm}29.88\;ng/kg/day$ in females, respectively. When the human monitoring data was applied to a linear regression model of Y=21.67X-10.04 {Y=liver cancer incidence per 100,000, X=Log $AFB_1$ intake (ng/kg/day), r=0.99} developed from previously reported epidemiological data, calculated liver cancer incidences attributed to $AFB_1$ exposure were 41.56/100,000 in males and 26.84/100,000 in females. The incidences were similarly correlated with liver cancer mortality rates of 43.43/100,000 in males and 11.23/100,000 in females in Korea. These results suggest that aflatoxin exposure may be an important risk factor for the high incidence of liver cancer in Korea.

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Tension Control of a Winding Machine using Time-delay Estimation (시간 지연 추정 기법을 이용한 권취기의 장력 제어 알고리즘)

  • Heo, Jeong-Heon;You, Byungyong;Kim, Jinwook
    • Journal of Drive and Control
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2018
  • We propose a tension controller based on a time-delay estimation (TDE) technique for a winding machine. Firstly, we perform the necessary calculations to derive a mathematical model of the winding machine. In this sense, it is revealed that the roll radius of the winding machine is characteristically seen to be increasing or decreasing during the winding process. That being said, it is noted that the parameters of the winding machine are coupled and constantly changing during this process. Understandably then, it is noted that the model is shown to be nonlinear and time-varying. Secondly, we propose the way to apply the TDE based controller which is the so-called Time-delay Control (TDC). The TDC utilizes the time-delayed information intentionally to compensate the nonlinear and time-varying characteristics. As we have seen, the proposed controller consists of two parts: one is a TDE component, and the other is an error dynamics component which is defined by a user. In a computer simulation based on the Matlab/Simulink program, the proposed controller is compared with a conventional PID controller, which is widely used in the tension control of the winding machine. The proposed controller reduces the incidence of overshoot and steady-state error in the tension control, as compared to the conventional PID controller.

A Position Measurements of Moving Object in 2D Plane (2차원 평면상에서 이동하는 물체의 위치측정)

  • Ro, Jae-Hee;Lee, Yong-Jung;Choi, Jae-Ha;Ro, Young-Shick;Lee, Yang-Burm
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.48 no.12
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    • pp.1537-1543
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, PSD(Position Sensitive Detector) sensor system that estimates position for moving objects in 2D plane is developed. PSD sensor is used to measure the position of an incidence light in real-time. To get the position of light source of moving target, a new parameter calibration algorithm and neural network technique are proposed and applied. Real-time position measurements of the mobile robot with light source is examined to validate the proposed method. It is shown that the proposed technique provides accurate position estimation of the moving object.

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A Research on Process of Estimation about Frequency and Loss of Risk by distribution of Probability (확률분포에 의한 리스크 빈도수와 손실규모 추정 프로세스 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Jai;Lee, Seong-Il
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.67-82
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    • 2008
  • Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social. natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.

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