• Title/Summary/Keyword: incidence estimation

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Establishing the Method of Risk Assessment Analysis for Prevention of Marine Accidents Based on Human Factors: Application to Safe Evacuation System

  • Fukuchi, Nobuyoshi;Shinoda, Takeshi
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2000
  • For the prevention of marine accidents based on human factor, the risk assessment analysis procedure is proposed which consists of (1) the structural analysis of marine accident, (2) the estimation of incidence probability based on the Fault Tree analysis, (3) the prediction of ef-fectiveness to reduced the accident risk by suitable countermeasures in the specified functional system, and (4) the risk assessment by means of minimizing of the total cost expectation and the background risk. As a practical example, the risk assessment analysis for preventing is investigated using the proposed method.

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A study on the real-time Position measurements of mobile object using neural network (신경 회로망을 이용한 이동물체의 실시간 위치측정에 대한 연구)

  • Ro, Jae-H.;Yi, Un-K.;Ro, Young-S.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07b
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    • pp.832-834
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    • 1999
  • This paper is a study on the real-position measurements of mobile object using n network. 2-D PSD sensor is used to measure th position of moving object with light source. Position Sensitive Detector(PSD) is an useful which can be used to measure the position o incidence light in accuracy and in real-time. T the position of light source of moving target, neural network technique are proposed and applied. Real-time position measurements of the mobile robot with light source is examined to validate the proposed method. It is shown that the proposed technique provides accurate position estimation of the moving object.

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Position Measurements of Moving Object in Cartesian Coordinate (직교좌표에서 이동물체의 위치측정)

  • 이용중;노재희;이양범
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.36-42
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, PSD(Position Sensitive Detector) sensor system that estimates position for moving objects in 2D plane is developed. PSD sensor is used to measure the position the position of and incidence light in real-time. To get the position of light source of moving target, a new parameter calibration algorithm and neural network technique are proposed and applied. Real-time position measurements of the mobile robot with light source is examined to validate the proposed method. It is shown that the proposed technique provides accurate position estimation of the moving object.

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Prediction and Measurement of Sound Transmission Loss for Multi-layered Acoustical Materials (다중층 음향 재료의 투과손실 예측과 측정)

  • Park, So-Hee;Park, Chul-Min;Chae, Ki-Sang;Kang, Yeon-June
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.1013-1020
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, the predictions and measurements of sound transmission loss(STL) are discussed for various types of acoustical materials and carpets. Random incidence sound transmission losses are measured by the sound intensity method. The in-house software HONUS2005 is used to predict TL and estimate the various physical properties such as the flow resistivity, the structure factor, the porosity, the Possion's ratio, and etc. After this estimation, various multi-layered materials with a steel plate are measured and predicted. In particular, Carpets are assumed to be membranes to predict acoustical performance. To confirm this assumption, double and triple-layered cases are also observed including two different kinds of carpets.

Reliability Analysis of Measurement System by Observability Identification technique (기관측성 판정기법에 의한 측정시스템의 신뢰도분석)

  • Lee, Eung-Hyuk;Hong, Kwak-No;Hyun, Moon-Young
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1987.11a
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    • pp.125-128
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    • 1987
  • This paper deals with the topological observability analysis and the derivation of a reliability evaluation formula of a measurement system for state estimation. An analogy of the DC power flow method to the DC circuit analysis is introduced, and all the relationship between power flows and phase angles are replaced by the corresponding current-voltage relation. As a result, a set of topological measurement equation expressed in the form of the incidence matrix is derived for the topological analysis, and the observability test is carried out by examining the rank of the measurement matrix. The reliability evaluation formula was derived experimentally by testing the observability of sample systems of IEEE-14, IEEE-3.0, IEEE-57.

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The Estimation of Early Health Effects for Different Combinations of Release Parameters and Meteorological Data

  • Jeong, Jongtae;Jung, Wondea
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.557-565
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    • 2001
  • Variations in the number of early health effects resulting from the severe accidents of the YGN 3&4 nuclear power plants were examined for different combinations of release parameters and meteorological data . The release parameters and meteorological data were selected in combination to define a limited number of basic spectra characterized by release height, heat content, release time, warning time, wind speed, rainfall rate, and atmospheric stability class. Variant seasonal spectra were also defined in order to estimate the potential significance of seasonal variations as a factor determining the incidence or number of early health effects. The results show that there are large differences in consequences from spectrum to spectrum, although an equal amount and mix of radioactive material is released to the atmosphere in each case. Also, there are large differences in the estimated number of health effects from season to season due to distinct seasonal variations in meteorological combinations in Korea. Therefore, it is necessary to consider seasonal characteristics in developing optimum emergency response strategies.

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Incidence Angle Estimation by the Tonpilz Type Underwater Acoustic Vector Sensor with a Quadrupole Structure (Quadrupole 구조를 가진 Tonpilz형 수중 음향 벡터 센서를 이용한 입사각 추정)

  • Lim, Youngsub;Roh, Yongrae
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.31 no.8
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    • pp.569-579
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    • 2012
  • Typical Tonpilz type underwater acoustic transducers making use of piezoelectric ceramics detect the magnitude of an acoustic pressure, a scalar quantity, and convert this pressure into a proportional output voltage. The scalar sensor has no directional sensitivity. In this paper, we have proposed a new vector sensor based on the Tonpilz transducer structure, which is sensitive to both the magnitude and the azimuthal direction of an acoustic wave. Validity of this new design has been confirmed with analytic equations and finite element analyses.

EARLY WARNING FORECASTS FOR COVID-19 IN KOREA USING BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE TRANSMISSION RATE

  • Byul Nim Kim
    • East Asian mathematical journal
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.493-503
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    • 2023
  • Tendency prediction of daily confirmed cases is an important issue for public health authorities. To protect the tendency, we estimate the transmission rate of stochastic SEIR model for COVID-19 in Korea using particle Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results show that the increasing and decreasing tendency of estimated transmission rate appear one or two days in advance compared to daily incidence cases, and as time evolves the standard deviation of the estimates of transmission rate reduces. Since ten months have passed since the first incident case of COVID-19 in Korea, we expect to forecast the tendency of daily confirmed cases for the next one or two days more accurately using our method.

A analytical research into social and economic costs for each type of accident, injury and intoxication (사고·손상·중독 유형별 사회·경제적 비용분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, In-Sook;Choi, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2015
  • In South Korea, few researches have been conducted into the incidence of injury diseases and into their demographic and sociologic characteristics. This research has estimated and analyzed the results of an questionnaire investigation carried out by the Korea medical panel (2008) and the social economic costs. In particular, an estimation has been conducted of social costs for each type of accident, injury and intoxication and of medical use for the injuries. For the future, it is necessary to develop concrete programs customized for age, education level, economic income and to continually implement injury prevention education, with a view to reducing the injury incidence and medical expenses; and also, individuals' participation in and social and national efforts are required for an efficient operation of the health insurance, for the purpose of reducing social and/or economic costs for injuries in South Korea.