• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.207-218
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• 2023

Duck farming restriction refers to a program in which duck farms suspend their operations for a certain period at times when the risk of avian influenza (AI) is high and receive compensation from the Korean government. This study analyzed the effect of this duck farming restriction on the incidence of AI using data on regional AI incidence rates, the program participation rate, and characteristics of poultry farming in 2016 (before the implementation of the restriction), as well as data from 2020 and 2021 (when new AI outbreaks occurred). In this study, the treatment group was divided into five subgroups according to the policy participation rate and a difference-in-difference (DID) estimation was conducted using certain covariates, in this case the average number of ducks raised, the land area, the number of high-susceptibility farms, the number of low-susceptibility farms, the average number of farms within a 3 km radius, the average distance to the nearest farm, and a year dummy. The results showed that when more than 30% of all duck farms in a region participated in the farming restriction, it had a statistically significant effect on the incidence of AI. Specifically, when more than 30, 40, 50, and 60% of all duck farms participated in the farming restriction, the AI incidence rate decreased by 0.7184, 1.0025, 1.5844, and 1.5843%p, respectively.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.130-134
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• 2009

Objectives : A method of estimation using 8 populationbased cancer registries databases in Korea(KRCR DB) has been introduced as another strategy for validly estimating the national cancer incidence(NCI) in Korea. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of this method with using the 7 KRCR DBs, excluding Seoul covering 21% of the total population of Korea. Methods : We designed the study method(NCSE_7) as same as the estimating method with using 8 KRCR DBs (NCSE_8) in order to ensure maximal comparability. We defined the expected number of cancer cases in each registry as the number of observed cases and then we added the weighted observed cases according to gender, age and the proportion of the population covered by each registry for the population of the seven regions and the population of all areas, with excluding these seven regions. From the expected number of total cancer incidents, the estimated NCI was calculated by dividing the expected number of cancer cases by the number of the total population. The standard error(SE) of the estimated incidence was also taken from the expected number of total cancer incidents. Results : Compared with the results of the NCSE_8, the overall age-standardized rates(ASR) in men and women became over-estimated and under-estimated, respectively. Primary sites that showed statistically significant differences were the colo-rectum, prostate, breast and thyroid. The index of death certificate only(DCO)and microscopically verified(MV)% indicating levels of data quality were decreased, especially for the brain in DCO% and kidney in the MV%. Conclusions : The database of Seoul regional cancer registry has a key role for the method to estimate the valid nationwide cancer statistics in Korea with using the population-based cancer registries databases.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.1557-1561
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• 2014

Background: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women and estimating its relative risks and trends of incidence at the area-level is helpful for health policy makers. However, traditional methods of estimation which do not take spatial heterogeneity into account suffer from drawbacks and their results may be misleading, as the estimated maps of incidence vary dramatically in neighboring areas. Spatial methods have been proposed to overcome drawbacks of traditional methods by including spatial sources of variation in the model to produce smoother maps. Materials and Methods: In this study we analyzed the breast cancer data in Iran during 2004-2008. We used a method proposed to cover spatial and temporal effects simultaneously and their interactions to study trends of breast cancer incidence in Iran. Results: The results agree with previous studies but provide new information about two main issues regarding the trend of breast cancer in provinces of Iran. First, this model discovered provinces with high relative risks of breast cancer during the 5 years of the study. Second, new information was provided with respect to overall trend trends o. East-Azerbaijan, Golestan, North-Khorasan, and Khorasan-Razavi had the highest increases in rates of breast cancer incidence whilst Tehran, Isfahan, and Yazd had the highest incidence rates during 2004-2008. Conclusions: Using spatial methods can provide more accurate and detailed information about the incidence or prevalence of a disease. These models can specify provinces with different health priorities in terms of needs for therapy and drugs or demands for efficient education, screening, and preventive policy into action.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.2847-2852
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• 2016

Background: Although the breast cancer incidence rate in Japan is lower than in western countries, the age-specific rates have markedly increased in recent years, along with the problems of declining birth rate and an aging population. Materials and Methods: We examined past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence using data from the Osaka Cancer Registry from 1976 to 2010, and estimated future trends until 2025 based on the changes observed and population dynamics using a log linear regression model. Results: The age-specific breast cancer incidence rate has increased consistently from the 1970s, and the rates have caught up with those of Japanese-Americans in the US. Assuming the increasing tendency of age-specific breast cancer incidence to be constant, the average annual incidence of breast cancer will increase 1.7-fold from 2006-2010 to 2021-2025. Furthermore, the number of patients aged 80 years should increase 3.4-fold. Conclusions: The medical demand for breast cancer care in Japan may increase explosively in the future, particularly among the elderly. We need to prepare for such a future increase in demand for care, although careful monitoring is needed to confirm these results.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.18 no.12
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• pp.1669-1674
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• 2005

Maximum likelihood methodology was applied to analyze the efficiency and statistical power of interval mapping by using a threshold model. The factors that affect QTL detection efficiency (e.g. QTL effect, heritability and incidence of categories) were simulated in our study. Daughter design with multiple families was applied, and the size of segregating population is 500. The results showed that the threshold model has a great advantage in parameters estimation and power of QTL mapping, and has nice efficiency and accuracy for discrete traits. In addition, the accuracy and power of QTL mapping depended on the effect of putative quantitative trait loci, the value of heritability and incidence directly. With the increase of QTL effect, heritability and incidence of categories, the accuracy and power of QTL mapping improved correspondingly.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.422-427
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• 1999

We are proposed for the computation of disease frequency measures and of their associated variances from data collected through prospective study of multiple dynamic cohort (herds) with a National Animal Health Monitoring System (NAHMS) in Gyeongnam. We can be estimated and calculated the annual incidence density for a group of herds and the 1-month risk of disease from the same within herd measure of monthly incidence density. We are proposed that the choice of measure to be estimated depend on the intended use of the information. From results in this study, Our study demonstrate that risk estimates are appropriates for producers and clinic veterinarian making decisions at the animal or herd level. Incidence density measures are appropriate for extrapolation to reference populations used for state and regional-level decision making.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.673-677
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• 2013

Introduction: Capture-recapture methods have been suggested for reducing costs of disease registration as well as reducing bias in incidence estimations. This study aimed to estimate the gastric cancer incidence in the Tehran metropolis population during 2002-2006. Materials and Methods: We investigated new cases of gastric cancer reported by three sources; death certificates, pathology reports, and medical records to Tehran population-based cancer registry during 2002-2006. $G^2$ statistics and the two-source capture-recapture method were used to select the best-fitted log-linear model and to estimate incidence, respectively. EXCEL software version 2007 and SPSS software version 16 were used for this research. Results: The number of reported cases was 4,463, with an average age of 68.5 (${\pm}12.9$) years. We found the model that combined two sources of data including pathology reports and medical records and furthermore complemented by death certificates as the best model. The reported and the estimated incidences were 11.0 and 27.1 per 100,000 respectively. Conclusions: The incidence estimated by two-source capture-recapture method is about three times higher than the incidence reported by the sources under investigation. It is recommended to move towards the implementation of population-based cancer registration using various sources of data collection to achieve more accurate data.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.537-544
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• 2016

We developed a model, termed D-PSA-K, to estimate the accumulated potential damage on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the growing and overwintering seasons. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of the amount of necrotic lesion in a non-frozen environment, the rate of necrosis increase in a freezing environment during the overwintering season, and the amount of necrotic lesion on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the overwintering and growing seasons. We evaluated the model's accuracy by comparing the observed maximum disease incidence on kiwifruit canes against the damage estimated using weather and disease data collected at Wando during 1994-1997 and at Seogwipo during 2014-2015. For the Hayward cultivar, D-PSA-K estimated the accumulated damage as approximately nine times the observed maximum disease incidence. For the Hort16A cultivar, the accumulated damage estimated by D-PSA-K was high when the observed disease incidence was high. D-PSA-K could assist kiwifruit growers in selecting optimal sites for kiwifruit cultivation and establishing improved production plans by predicting the loss in kiwifruit production due to bacterial canker, using past weather or future climate change data.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.60-67
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• 2011

Visible light communication system transmits data by controlling light emission of LED and receives data through photo detecter, which is considered as one of strong candidates of next generation wireless communication systems. The transmission capacity of visible light communication system depends on light intensity emitted from LED, sensitivity of PD, distance between transmitter and receiver, angle of incidence at the receiver. In particular, the receiver's vertical and horizontal movement changes distance between transmitter and receiver and angle of incidence, which may degrades transmission capacity of system. In this paper, we propose an estimation algorithm of receiver's position and angle based on tracking of received light intensity for indoor visible light communication systems. The performance evaluation of proposed algorithm confirms that the estimation algorithm of receiver's position and angle is quite important for visible light communication system to improve its transmission capacity.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.211-238
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• 2016

The Maximum seismic responses of steel buildings with perimeter moment resisting frames (MRF), modeled as complex MDOF systems, are estimated for several incidence angles of the horizontal components and the critical one is identified. The accuracy of the existing rules to combine the effects of the individual components is also studied. Two and three components are considered. The critical response does not occur for principal components and the corresponding incidence angle varies from one earthquake to another. The critical response can be estimated as 1.40 and 1.10 times that of the principal components, for axial load and interstory shears, respectively. The rules underestimate the axial load but reasonably overestimate the shears. The rules are not always inaccurate in the estimation of the combined response for correlated components. On the other hand, totally uncorrelated (principal) components are not always related to an accurate estimation. The correlation of the individual effects (${\rho}$) may be significant, even for principal components. The rules are not always associated to an inaccurate estimation for large values of ${\rho}$, and small values of ${\rho}$ are not always related to an accurate estimation. Only for perfectly uncorrelated harmonic excitations and elastic analysis of SDOF systems, the individual effects of the components are uncorrelated and the rules accurately estimate the combined response. The degree of correlation of the components, the type of structural system, the response parameter under consideration, the location of the structural member and the level of structural deformation must be considered while estimating the level of underestimation or overestimation.