• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1526-1530
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• 2007

In this study, the chukwookee data were evaluated by applying that for the historical rainfall frequency analysis. To derive a two parameter log-normal distribution by using historical data and modern data, censored data MLE and binomial censored data MLE were applied. As a result, we found that both average and standard deviation were all estimated smaller with chukwookee data then those with only modern data. This indicates that rather big events rarely happens during the period of chukwookee data then during the modern period. The frequency analysis results using the parameters estimated were also similar to those expected. The point to be noticed is that the rainfall quantiles estimated by both methods were similar, especially for the 99% threshold. This result indicates that the historical document records like the annals of Chosun dynasty could be valuable and effective for the frequency analysis. This also means the extension of data available for frequency analysis.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.3B
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• pp.269-279
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• 2009

The design flood estimation in a large river basin has a lot of uncertainties in areal reduction factors, time-spatial rainfall distribution, and parameters of rainfall-runoff model. The use of historical concurrent rainfall events for estimating design flood would reduce the uncertainties. This study presents a procedure for estimating design floods using historical rainfall events and storage function model. The design rainfall and time-spatial distribution were determined through analyzing concurrent rainfall events, and the design floods were estimated using storage function model with a non-linear hydrology response. To evaluate the applicability of the procedure of this study, the estimated floods were compared to results of frequency analysis of flood data. Both floods gave very similar results. It shows the applicability of the procedure presented in this study for estimating design floods in practices.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.11
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• pp.851-859
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• 2007

In this study, the chukwookee data were evaluated by applying that for the historical rainfall frequency analysis. To derive a two parameter log-normal distribution by using historical data and modem data, censored data MLE and binomial censored data MLE were applied. As a result, we found that both average and standard deviation were all estimated smaller with chukwookee data then those with only modern data. This indicates that rather big events rarely happens during the period of chukwookee data then during the modern period. The frequency analysis results using the parameters estimated were also similar to those expected. The point to be noticed is that the rainfall quantiles estimated by both methods were similar. This result indicates that the historical document records like the annals of Chosun dynasty could be valuable and effective for the frequency analysis. This also means the extension of data available for frequency analysis.

• Water for future
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.145-154
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• 1995

The various analyses of the historical rainfall data need to be utilized in a hydraulic engineering project. The probability distributions of the rainfall events according to annual maximum continuous rainfall depths are studied for the hydrologic frequency analysis. The bivariate normal distribution, the bivariate lognormal distribution, and the bivariate gamma distribution are applied to the rainfall events composed of rainfall depths and its durations at Kangnung, Seoul, Incheon, Chupungnyung, Teagu, Jeonju, Kwangju, and Busan. These rainfall events are fitted to the the bivariate normal distribution and the bivariate lognormal distribution, but not fitted to the bivariate gamma distribution. Frequency curves of probability rainfall events are suggested from the probability distribution selected by the goodness-of-fit test.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.152-152
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• 2022

Only employing historical data limits the estimation of the full distribution of probable Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk due to the insufficiency of samples. Addressing this limitation, this study introduces a semi-physical TC rainfall model that produces spatially and temporally resolved TC rainfall data to improve TC risk assessments. The model combines a statistical-based track model based on the Markov renewal process to produce synthetic TC tracks, with a physics-based model that considers the interaction between TC and the atmospheric environment to estimate TC rainfall. The simulated data from the combined model are then fitted to a probability distribution function to compute the spatially heterogeneous risk brought by landfalling TCs. The methodology is employed in South Korea as a case study to be able to implement a country-scale-based vulnerability inspection from damaging TC impacts. Results show that the proposed model can produce TC tracks that do not only follow the spatial distribution of past TCs but also reveal new paths that could be utilized to consider events outside of what has been historically observed. The model is also found to be suitable for properly estimating the total rainfall induced by landfalling TCs across various points of interest within the study area. The simulated TC rainfall data enable us to reliably estimate extreme rainfall from higher return periods that are often overlooked when only the historical data is employed. In addition, the model can properly describe the distribution of rainfall extremes that show a heterogeneous pattern throughout the study area and that vary per return period. Overall, results show that the proposed approach can be a valuable tool in providing sufficient TC rainfall samples that could be an aid in improving TC risk assessment.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.121-121
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• 2020

Varying dominant processes, including Tropical Cyclone (TC) and non-TC rainfall events, have been known to drive the occurrence of precipitation in South Korea. With the changes in the pattern of the Earth's climate due to anthropogenic activities, nonstationarity or changes in the magnitude and frequency of these dominant processes have been separately observed for the past decades and are expected to continue in the coming years. These changes often cause unprecedented hydrologic events such as extreme flooding which pose a greater risk to the society. This study aims to take into account a more reliable future climate condition with two dominant processes. Diverse statistical models including the hidden markov chain, K-nearest neighbor algorithm, and quantile mappings are utilized to mimic future rainfall events based on the recorded historical data with the consideration of the varying effects of TC and non-TC events. The data generated is then utilized to the hydrologic model to conduct a flood frequency analysis. Results in this study emphasize the need to consider the nonstationarity of design rainfalls to fully grasp the degree of future flooding events when designing urban water infrastructures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.9
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• pp.777-787
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• 2014

Stormwater pipe systems are most commonly used to discharge rainwater from the urban catchment covered by the impervious area. To design stormwater pipe and rainwater pumping station, frequency analysis is implemented using historical rainfall and the design rainfall is timely distributed using theoretical shape such as Huff distribution. This method cannot consider the rainfall intensity variation caused by climate change which is type of uncertainty. Therefore, in this study, runoff from Gasan1 stormwater pumping stations catchment is calculated using design rainfall distributed by the 2nd quartile distribution method and the historical rainfall events. From the analysis, the nodal flooding in the urban catchment is likely caused by the high peak rainfall event rather than the large amount of rainfall. The linear regression analysis is implemented. As a result, when several storms have the same amount of rainfall, the nodal flooding in the stormwater pipe systems could be caused by the high peak of storm events. Since as the storm duration become short, the peak rainfall become high, the nodal flooding likely become severe with the short storm duration. The uncertainty in the peak data of design rainfall is analyzed and this uncertainty has to be consider in the stormwater pipe design process.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.67-75
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• 2012

Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.76-83
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• 2016

In recent, the series of extreme storm events were occurred by those continuous typhoons and the severe flood damages due to the loss of life and the destruction of property were involved. In this study, we call Mega flood for the Extreme flood occurred by these successive storm events and so we can have a hypothetical Mega flood by assuming that a extreme event can be successively occurred with a certain time interval. Inter Event Time Definition (IETD) method was used to determine the time interval between continuous events in order to simulate Mega flood. Therefore, the continuous extreme rainfall events are determined with IETD then Mega flood is simulated by the consecutive events : (1) consecutive occurrence of two historical extreme events, (2) consecutive occurrence of two design events obtained by the frequency analysis based on the historical data. We have shown that Mega floods by continuous extreme rainfall events were increased by 6-17% when we compared to typical flood by a single event. We can expect that flood damage caused by Mega flood leads to much greater than damage driven by a single rainfall event. The second increase in the flood caused by heavy rain is not much compared to the first flood caused by heavy rain. But Continuous heavy rain brings the two times of flood damage. Therefore, flood damage caused by the virtual Mega flood of is judged to be very large. Here we used the hypothetical rainfall events which can occur Mega floods and this could be used for preparing for unexpected flood disaster by simulating Mega floods defined in this study.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.515-515
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• 2022

Climate change is strongly threatening the performance of agricultural reservoirs, which are instrumental in ensuring uninterrupted water supplies for rice cultivation in Korea. In this study, various performance indices were derived and overall sustainability of the 400 agricultural reservoirs was evaluated in the context of climate change trends during 1973-2017. Rice crop evapotranspiration, irrigation water requirements, runoff generation in the upstream watershed, and volumetric evaporation losses were plugged into a water balance model to simulate the reservoir operation during the study period. Resilience, reliability, and vulnerability are the three main indicators of reservoir performance, and these were combined into a single sustainability metric to define the overall system credibility. Historical climate data analysis confirmed that the country is facing a gradual warming shift, particularly in the central and southern agricultural regions. Although annual cumulative rainfall increased over the last 45 years, uneven monthly rainfall distribution during the dry and wet seasons also exacerbated the severity and frequency of droughts/floods. For approximately 85% of the selected reservoirs, the sustainability ranged between 0.35 to 0.77, and this range narrowed sharply with time, particularly for the reservoirs located in the western and southern coast regions. The study outcomes could help in developing the acceptable ranges of the performance indices and implementing appropriate policy and technical interventions for improving the sustainability of reservoirs with unacceptable ranges of the performance indices.