• Title/Summary/Keyword: higher order accuracy

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Analysis and verification of vitamin B12 in animal foods for update of national standard food composition table (국가표준식품성분표 개정을 위한 동물성 식품 비타민 B12 분석 및 검증)

  • Jeong, Yon Na;Park, Su-Jin;Lee, Sang Hoon;Choi, Youngmin;Choi, Kap Seong;Chun, Jiyeon
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.317-324
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    • 2020
  • In order to create the national food nutrient database, a total of 41 animal foods (ham, seafood, edible insects and eggs) were analyzed for their vitamin B12 content and the applied immunoaffinity-HPLC was verified. Ham vitamin B12 contents were 0.30-0.65 ㎍/100 g. Seafood showed relatively high vitamin B12 level, where the values of fermented clam were the highest (26.80 ㎍/100 g) followed by fermented pollack roe. Vitamin B12 was not detected in silkworm pupae and beetles, while relatively high levels were found in the two-spotted cricket imago (6.70 ㎍/100 g). Chicken and quail egg yolk had roughly 100- and 30-times higher vitamin B12 levels as compared to their egg white. Vitamin B12 contents in quail and chicken eggs were significantly enhanced by boiling (p<0.05). Results based on accuracy (97-102% recovery) and precision (<5% RSD) indicate that this study provides reliable vitamin B12 information on animal foods consumed in Korea.

Habitat Distribution Change Prediction of Asiatic Black Bears (Ursus thibetanus) Using Maxent Modeling Approach (Maxent 모델을 이용한 반달가슴곰의 서식지 분포변화 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Geun;Yang, DooHa;Cho, YoungHo;Song, Kyo-Hong;Oh, Jang-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2016
  • This study aims at providing basic data to objectively evaluate the areas suitable for reintroduction of the species of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in order to effectively preserve the Asiatic black bears in the Korean protection areas including national parks, and for the species restoration success. To this end, this study predicted the potential habitats in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, where there are the records of Asiatic black bears' appearances using the Maxent model and environmental variables related with climate, topography, road and land use. In addition, this study evaluated the effects of the relevant climate and environmental variables. This study also analyzed inhabitation range area suitable for Asiatic black and geographic change according to future climate change. As for the judgment accuracy of the Maxent model widely utilized for habitat distribution research of wildlife for preservation, AUC value was calculated as 0.893 (sd=0.121). This was useful in predicting Asiatic black bears' potential habitat and evaluate the habitat change characteristics according to future climate change. Compare to the distribution map of Asiatic black bears evaluated by IUCN, Habitat suitability by the Maxent model were regionally diverse in extant areas and low in the extinct areas from IUCN map. This can be the result reflecting the regional difference in the environmental conditions where Asiatic black bears inhabit. As for the environment affecting the potential habitat distribution of Asiatic black bears, inhabitation rate was the highest, according to land coverage type, compared to climate, topography and artificial factors like distance from road. Especially, the area of deciduous broadleaf forest was predicted to be preferred, in comparison with other land coverage types. Annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during the driest period were projected to affect more than temperature's annual range, and the inhabitation possibility was higher, as distance was farther from road. The reason is that Asiatic black bears are conjectured to prefer more stable area without human's intervention, as well as prey resource. The inhabitation range was predicted to be expanded gradually to the southern part of India, China's southeast coast and adjacent inland area, and Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia in the eastern coastal areas of Southeast Asia. The following areas are forecast to be the core areas, where Asiatic black bears can inhabit in the Asian region: Jeonnam, Jeonbuk and Gangwon areas in South Korea, Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Chubu, Kanto and Tohoku's border area in Japan, and Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian border area in China. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the preservation and efficient management of Asiatic black bear's habitat, artificially introduced individual bear's release area selection, and the management of collision zones with humans.

Study on the Acceptability and Effectiveness of an Oral Contraceptive Among Iud Drop-outs in Rural Korea

  • Yang, J.M.;Bang, S.;Song, S.W.;Youn, B.B.
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 1968
  • During a period of about one year(November '66 to December '67), the Yonsei University College of Medicine conducted a field trial of the oral contraceptive(Ovulen) in order to study its acceptability and use-effectiveness among IUD drop-outs in Koyang county. We can summarize the outstanding findings from this investigation as follows; 1. 61.4% of the IUD drop-outs interviewed (911 women) wanted to use the pill. Most of the reasons for not wanting to use it(352 women) pertained to either use of other contraceptive methods(98) or subfecundity(150) following IUD terminations. Only 83 out of 911 women gave reasons related to the difficulty of obtaining pills. Therefore, we can state that most IUD drop-outs if still in need of a contraceptive methods are in favor of trying the pill, and especially so if this method is conveniently available. 2. The 467 women or 37% of those who terminated IUD use actually visited the clinic for medical screening, and only 11 of them or 2.4% were rejected because of pregnancy and other medical reasons such as cervical erosion, myoma, breast mass, etc. 5.5% or 25 of the 456 women who received the first cycle did not take a single pill during the study period. 3. When we defined those 431 women who accepted and took one or more tablets we found that women over age 30, with 4 or more children, and/or with a higher educational level were the best prospects for recruitment. 4. In accuracy of use, about two thirds of the users started taking the pill on the 5 th day as directed for the first three cycles, but the percentages rose sharply to about 80% in later cycles. Tardiness in starting pill use in the first cycle may have occurred partly because they had to return to the clinic monthly to get each new cycle. Among acceptors who did not quit between cycles, 80 to 90% were regular users, missing two or less tablets in each cycle. 5) More than 60% of the users felt well and sometimes lost their pre-acceptance symptoms. especially dysmenorrhea. However, 27.4% (58 women) had side effects attributable to the pill compund as nausea, vomiting, indigestion, breast tenderness, decreased lactation or breakthrough bleeding. 25.0% (53 women) also complained of medical diseases or symptoms not related to the pill, especially during the first three cycles. However, as the confidence and experience of the client and the field workers grew, the incidence of unrelated medical complaints quickly fell to a lower level in the later cycles. 6. As of the end of this study, on December 31, 1967, 49.2% (212 women) had discontinued the use of the pill for medical reasons as well as for the non medical reasons. Only one case terminated use due to a pregnancy after taking pills. The cumulative continuation rates (by the life table method), were 58.9%, 51.9%, 41.0% at the end of 3 months, 6 months and one year, respectively. These rates are lower than in the U.S. studies. Even when we add the retaking group to the first segment, the continuation rate goes up only about 5% above the first segment rates mentioned above. Possible explanations are different dosages, the newerness of the method and the use of only one point for pill distribution in the country together with a monthly return for cycle 1, 2, 3, and 4-6.

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Measuring the Quantities of Aquaculture Farming Facilities for Seaweed, Ear Shell and Fish Using High Resolution Aerial Images - A Case of the Wando Region, Jeollanamdo - (고해상 항공영상을 활용한 김, 전복, 어류 양식장 시설량의 산출 - 전라남도 완도지역을 대상으로 -)

  • Jo, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.147-161
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    • 2011
  • Korea is surrounded by sea on three sides. This country has been supplied with a variety of aquaculture products cultivated on shores. There have recently been a lot of studies to have better understanding of the correct location and quantity of aquaculture farms for seaweed, ear shells and fish that cover a wide area of sea. And it is necessary to use the geographic information system and remote sensing to detect the aquaculture farms in order to effectively manage them. This study uses higher resolution aerial images(25 centimeters) than satellite images of 2~2.5-meter resolution that have been ever used, to conduct an accuracy detection of aquaculture farming facilities. It chooses as the case study area the Wando region that has aquaculture farms for seaweed, ear shells and fish. Aerial photos of the island were obtained in this study and an image correction of them was conducted. A spatial database was then constructed in this study and the detection of aquaculture farming facilities was performed. An analysis of facilities inside and outside the permitted areas reveals that there has been an increase in the facilities of seaweed and ear shell aquaculture farms outside the permitted areas. And also it tells that because the facilities of fish aquaculture farms have turned into those of ear shell aquaculture farms, there has been a decrease in permitted facilities, facilities detected on the basis of aerial images, and facilities outside the permitted area. It will be necessary to continuously control and manage the unpermitted facilities, regarding the increase in the facilities inside and outside the permitted area for seaweed and ear shell aquaculture farms. Because the facilities of aquaculture farms cover a wide range of areas(sea) in this manner, it is more effective to depend on high resolution aerial images than a field survey to detect and calculate the facilities. This study comes up with a plan for using aerial images to detect the location and the quantity of the fish aquaculture facilities and then effectively manage them.

Evaluation of Oil Spill Detection Models by Oil Spill Distribution Characteristics and CNN Architectures Using Sentinel-1 SAR data (Sentienl-1 SAR 영상을 활용한 유류 분포특성과 CNN 구조에 따른 유류오염 탐지모델 성능 평가)

  • Park, Soyeon;Ahn, Myoung-Hwan;Li, Chenglei;Kim, Junwoo;Jeon, Hyungyun;Kim, Duk-jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.5_3
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    • pp.1475-1490
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    • 2021
  • Detecting oil spill area using statistical characteristics of SAR images has limitations in that classification algorithm is complicated and is greatly affected by outliers. To overcome these limitations, studies using neural networks to classify oil spills are recently investigated. However, the studies to evaluate whether the performance of model shows a consistent detection performance for various oil spill cases were insufficient. Therefore, in this study, two CNNs (Convolutional Neural Networks) with basic structures(Simple CNN and U-net) were used to discover whether there is a difference in detection performance according to the structure of CNN and distribution characteristics of oil spill. As a result, through the method proposed in this study, the Simple CNN with contracting path only detected oil spill with an F1 score of 86.24% and U-net, which has both contracting and expansive path showed an F1 score of 91.44%. Both models successfully detected oil spills, but detection performance of the U-net was higher than Simple CNN. Additionally, in order to compare the accuracy of models according to various oil spill cases, the cases were classified into four different categories according to the spatial distribution characteristics of the oil spill (presence of land near the oil spill area) and the clarity of border between oil and seawater. The Simple CNN had F1 score values of 85.71%, 87.43%, 86.50%, and 85.86% for each category, showing the maximum difference of 1.71%. In the case of U-net, the values for each category were 89.77%, 92.27%, 92.59%, and 92.66%, with the maximum difference of 2.90%. Such results indicate that neither model showed significant differences in detection performance by the characteristics of oil spill distribution. However, the difference in detection tendency was caused by the difference in the model structure and the oil spill distribution characteristics. In all four oil spill categories, the Simple CNN showed a tendency to overestimate the oil spill area and the U-net showed a tendency to underestimate it. These tendencies were emphasized when the border between oil and seawater was unclear.

Verification of International Trends and Applicability in the Republic of Korea for a Greenhouse Gas Inventory in the Grassland Biomass Sector (초지 바이오매스 부문 온실가스 인벤토리 구축을 위한 국제 동향과 국내 적용 가능성 평가)

  • Sle-gee Lee;Jeong-Gwan Lee;Hyun-Jun Kim
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2023
  • The grassland section of the greenhouse gas inventory has limitations due to a lack of review and verification of biomass compared to organic carbon in soil while grassland is considered one of the carbon storages in terrestrial ecosystems. Considering the situation at internal and external where the calculation of greenhouse gas inventory is being upgraded to a method with higher scientific accuracy, research on standards and methods for calculating carbon accumulation of grassland biomass is required. The purpose of this study was to identify international trends in the calculation method of the grassland biomass sector that meets the Tier 2 method and to conduct a review of variables applicable to the Republic of Korea. Identify the estimation methods and access levels for grassland biomass through the National Inventory Report in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and type the main implications derived from overseas cases. And, a field survey was conducted on 28 grasslands in the Republic of Korea to analyse the applicability of major issues. Four major international issues regarding grassland biomass were identified. 1) country-specific coefficients by land use; 2) calculations on woody plants; 3) loss and recovery due to wildfire; 4) amount of change by human activities. As a result of field surveys and analysis of activity data available domestically, it was found that there was a significant difference in the amount of carbon in biomass according to use type classification and climate zone-soil type classification. Therefore, in order to create an inventory of grassland biomass at the Tier 2 level, a policy and institutional system for making activity data should develop country-specific coefficients for climate zones and soil types.

One-stop Evaluation Protocol of Ischemic Heart Disease: Myocardial Fusion PET Study (허혈성 심장 질환의 One-stop Evaluation Protocol: Myocardial Fusion PET Study)

  • Kim, Kyong-Mok;Lee, Byung-Wook;Lee, Dong-Wook;Kim, Jeong-Su;Jang, Yeong-Do;Bang, Chan-Seok;Baek, Jong-Hun;Lee, In-Su
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.33-37
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: In the early stage of using PET/CT, it was used to damper revision but recently shows that CT with MDCT is commonly used and works well for an anatomical diagnosis. This hospital makes the accuracy and convenience more higher in the diagnosis and evaluate of coronary heart disease through concurrently running myocardial perfusion SPECT examination, myocardial PET examination with FDG, and CT coronary artery CT angiography(coronary CTA) used PET/CT with 64-slice. This report shows protocol and image based on results from about 400 coronary heart disease examinations since having 64 channels PET/CT in July 2007. Materials and Methods: An Equipment for this examination is 64-slice CT and Discovery VCT (DVCT) that is consisted of PET with BGO ($Bi_4Ge_3O_{12}$) scintillation crystal by GE health care. First myocardial perfusion SPECT with pharmacologic stress test to reduce waiting time of a patient and get a quick diagnosis and evaluation, and right after it, myocardial FDG PET examination and coronary CTA run without a break. One-stop evaluation protocol of ischemic heart disease is as follows. 1)Myocardial perfusion SPECT with pharmacologic stress: A patient is injected with $^{99m}Tc$-MIBI 10 mCi and does not have any fatty food for myocardial PET examination and drink natural water with ursodeoxcholic acid 100 mg and we get SPECT image in an hour. 2)Myocardial FDG PET: To reduce blood fatty content and to increase uptake of FDG, we used creative oral glucose load using insulin and Acipimox to according to blood acid content. A patient is injected with $^{18}F$-FDG 5 mCi for reduction of his radiation exposure and we get a gated image an hour later and get delay image when we need. 3) Coronary CTA: The most important point is to control heart rate and to get cooperation of patient's breath. In order to reduce a heart rate of him or her below 65 beats, let him or her take beta blocker 50 mg ~ 200 mg after a consultation with a doctor about it and have breath-practices then have the examination. Right before the examination, we spray isosorbide dinitrate 3 to 5 times to lower tension of bessel wall and to extension a blood wall of a patient. It makes to get better the shape of an anatomy. At filming, a patient is injected CT contrast with high pressure and have enough practices before the examination in order to have no problem. For reduction of his radiation exposure, we have to do ECG-triggered X-ray tube modulation exposure. Results: We evaluate coronary artery stenosis through coronary CTA and study correlation (culprit vessel check) of a decline between stenosis and perfusion from the myocardial perfusion SPECT with pharmacologic stress, coronary CTA, and can check viability of infarction or hibernating myocardium by FDG PET. Conclusion: The examination makes us to set up a direction of remedy (drug treatment, PCI, CABG) because we can estimate of effect from remedy, lesion site and severity. In addition, we have an advantage that it takes just 3 hours and one-stop in that all of process of examinations run in succession and at the same time. Therefore it shows that the method is useful in one stop evaluation of ischemic heart disease.

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A Study on the Effect of Booth Recommendation System on Exhibition Visitors Unplanned Visit Behavior (전시장 참관객의 계획되지 않은 방문행동에 있어서 부스추천시스템의 영향에 대한 연구)

  • Chung, Nam-Ho;Kim, Jae-Kyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.175-191
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    • 2011
  • With the MICE(Meeting, Incentive travel, Convention, Exhibition) industry coming into the spotlight, there has been a growing interest in the domestic exhibition industry. Accordingly, in Korea, various studies of the industry are being conducted to enhance exhibition performance as in the United States or Europe. Some studies are focusing particularly on analyzing visiting patterns of exhibition visitors using intelligent information technology in consideration of the variations in effects of watching exhibitions according to the exhibitory environment or technique, thereby understanding visitors and, furthermore, drawing the correlations between exhibiting businesses and improving exhibition performance. However, previous studies related to booth recommendation systems only discussed the accuracy of recommendation in the aspect of a system rather than determining changes in visitors' behavior or perception by recommendation. A booth recommendation system enables visitors to visit unplanned exhibition booths by recommending visitors suitable ones based on information about visitors' visits. Meanwhile, some visitors may be satisfied with their unplanned visits, while others may consider the recommending process to be cumbersome or obstructive to their free observation. In the latter case, the exhibition is likely to produce worse results compared to when visitors are allowed to freely observe the exhibition. Thus, in order to apply a booth recommendation system to exhibition halls, the factors affecting the performance of the system should be generally examined, and the effects of the system on visitors' unplanned visiting behavior should be carefully studied. As such, this study aims to determine the factors that affect the performance of a booth recommendation system by reviewing theories and literature and to examine the effects of visitors' perceived performance of the system on their satisfaction of unplanned behavior and intention to reuse the system. Toward this end, the unplanned behavior theory was adopted as the theoretical framework. Unplanned behavior can be defined as "behavior that is done by consumers without any prearranged plan". Thus far, consumers' unplanned behavior has been studied in various fields. The field of marketing, in particular, has focused on unplanned purchasing among various types of unplanned behavior, which has been often confused with impulsive purchasing. Nevertheless, the two are different from each other; while impulsive purchasing means strong, continuous urges to purchase things, unplanned purchasing is behavior with purchasing decisions that are made inside a store, not before going into one. In other words, all impulsive purchases are unplanned, but not all unplanned purchases are impulsive. Then why do consumers engage in unplanned behavior? Regarding this question, many scholars have made many suggestions, but there has been a consensus that it is because consumers have enough flexibility to change their plans in the middle instead of developing plans thoroughly. In other words, if unplanned behavior costs much, it will be difficult for consumers to change their prearranged plans. In the case of the exhibition hall examined in this study, visitors learn the programs of the hall and plan which booth to visit in advance. This is because it is practically impossible for visitors to visit all of the various booths that an exhibition operates due to their limited time. Therefore, if the booth recommendation system proposed in this study recommends visitors booths that they may like, they can change their plans and visit the recommended booths. Such visiting behavior can be regarded similarly to consumers' visit to a store or tourists' unplanned behavior in a tourist spot and can be understand in the same context as the recent increase in tourism consumers' unplanned behavior influenced by information devices. Thus, the following research model was established. This research model uses visitors' perceived performance of a booth recommendation system as the parameter, and the factors affecting the performance include trust in the system, exhibition visitors' knowledge levels, expected personalization of the system, and the system's threat to freedom. In addition, the causal relation between visitors' satisfaction of their perceived performance of the system and unplanned behavior and their intention to reuse the system was determined. While doing so, trust in the booth recommendation system consisted of 2nd order factors such as competence, benevolence, and integrity, while the other factors consisted of 1st order factors. In order to verify this model, a booth recommendation system was developed to be tested in 2011 DMC Culture Open, and 101 visitors were empirically studied and analyzed. The results are as follows. First, visitors' trust was the most important factor in the booth recommendation system, and the visitors who used the system perceived its performance as a success based on their trust. Second, visitors' knowledge levels also had significant effects on the performance of the system, which indicates that the performance of a recommendation system requires an advance understanding. In other words, visitors with higher levels of understanding of the exhibition hall learned better the usefulness of the booth recommendation system. Third, expected personalization did not have significant effects, which is a different result from previous studies' results. This is presumably because the booth recommendation system used in this study did not provide enough personalized services. Fourth, the recommendation information provided by the booth recommendation system was not considered to threaten or restrict one's freedom, which means it is valuable in terms of usefulness. Lastly, high performance of the booth recommendation system led to visitors' high satisfaction levels of unplanned behavior and intention to reuse the system. To sum up, in order to analyze the effects of a booth recommendation system on visitors' unplanned visits to a booth, empirical data were examined based on the unplanned behavior theory and, accordingly, useful suggestions for the establishment and design of future booth recommendation systems were made. In the future, further examination should be conducted through elaborate survey questions and survey objects.

A Study of Equipment Accuracy and Test Precision in Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (골밀도검사의 올바른 질 관리에 따른 임상적용과 해석 -이중 에너지 방사선 흡수법을 중심으로-)

  • Dong, Kyung-Rae;Kim, Ho-Sung;Jung, Woon-Kwan
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Because there is a difference depending on the environment as for an inspection equipment the important part of bone density scan and the precision/accuracy of a tester, the management of quality must be made systematically. The equipment failure caused by overload effect due to the aged equipment and the increase of a patient was made frequently. Thus, the replacement of equipment and additional purchases of new bonedensity equipment caused a compatibility problem in tracking patients. This study wants to know whether the clinical changes of patient's bonedensity can be accurately and precisely reflected when used it compatiblly like the existing equipment after equipment replacement and expansion. Materials and methods : Two equipments of GE Lunar Prodigy Advance(P1 and P2) and the Phantom HOLOGIC Spine Road(HSP) were used to measure equipment precision. Each device scans 20 times so that precision data was acquired from the phantom(Group 1). The precision of a tester was measured by shooting twice the same patient, every 15 members from each of the target equipment in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 2). In addition, the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data were made by scanning 20 times in each of the equipment using HSP, based on the data obtained from the management of quality using phantom(ASP) every morning (Group 3). The same patient was shot only once in one equipment alternately to make the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 4). Results : It is steady equipment according to daily Q.C Data with $0.996\;g/cm^2$, change value(%CV) 0.08. The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are ALP in Group 1(P1 : $1.064{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.190\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.061{\pm}0.003\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.192). The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are P1 : $1.187{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.164\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.198{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.163 in Group 2. The average error${\pm}$2SD and %CV are P1 - (spine: $0.001{\pm}0.03\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.94, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.019\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.96), P2 - (spine: $0.002{\pm}0.018\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.55, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.013\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.48) in Group 3. The average error${\pm}2SD$, %CV, and r value was spine : $0.006{\pm}0.024\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.86, r=0.995, Femur: $0{\pm}0.014\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.54, r=0.998 in Group 4. Conclusion: Both LUNAR ASP CV% and HOLOGIC Spine Phantom are included in the normal range of error of ${\pm}2%$ defined in ISCD. BMD measurement keeps a relatively constant value, so showing excellent repeatability. The Phantom has homogeneous characteristics, but it has limitations to reflect the clinical part including variations in patient's body weight or body fat. As a result, it is believed that quality control using Phantom will be useful to check mis-calibration of the equipment used. A value measured a patient two times with one equipment, and that of double-crossed two equipment are all included within 2SD Value in the Bland - Altman Graph compared results of Group 3 with Group 4. The r value of 0.99 or higher in Linear regression analysis(Regression Analysis) indicated high precision and correlation. Therefore, it revealed that two compatible equipment did not affect in tracking the patients. Regular testing equipment and capabilities of a tester, then appropriate calibration will have to be achieved in order to calculate confidential BMD.

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Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.