• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.39-44
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• 2015

It is well known that the space radiation dose over the polar route should be carefully considered especially when the space weather shows sudden disturbances such as CME and flares. The National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) recently established a basis for a space radiation service for the public by developing a space radiation prediction model and heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model. The HCP value is used as a critical input value of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose. The CARI-6/6M is the most widely used and confidential program that is officially provided by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The HCP value is given one month late in the FAA official webpage, making it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this limitation regarding time delay, we developed a HCP prediction model based on the sunspot number variation. In this paper, we focus on the purpose and process of our HCP prediction model development. Finally, we find the highest correlation coefficient of 0.9 between the monthly sunspot number and the HCP value with an eight month time shift.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.279-285
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• 2016

The space radiation dose over air routes including polar routes should be carefully considered, especially when space weather shows sudden disturbances such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and accompanying solar energetic particle events. We recently established a heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model for real-time operation of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs. Specifically, the HCP value is used as a critical input value in the CARI-6/6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose based on the effective dose rate. The CARI-6/6M approach is the most widely used technique, and the programs can be obtained from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). However, HCP values are given at a one month delay on the FAA official webpage, which makes it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this critical limitation regarding the time delay for space weather customers, we developed a HCP prediction model based on sunspot number variations (Hwang et al. 2015). In this paper, we focus on improvements to our HCP prediction model and update it with neutron monitoring data. We found that the most accurate method to derive the HCP value involves (1) real-time daily sunspot assessments, (2) predictions of the daily HCP by our prediction algorithm, and (3) calculations of the resultant daily effective dose rate. Additionally, we also derived the HCP prediction algorithm in this paper by using ground neutron counts. With the compensation stemming from the use of ground neutron count data, the newly developed HCP prediction model was improved.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.78-89
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• 1995

상대론올 포함한 행성의 운동방정식을 중심으로 9개의 행성과 달, 그리고 4개의 소행성을 포함한 태양계의 n체 문제를 다루었다. 이 기본방정식에 지구와 달의 figure potential과 지구의 solid tidal effect를 외력으로 하는 섭동방정식을 추가하였다. 지구의 orientation을 J2000.0을 기준으로 하는 세차와 장동에 관한 식을 채택하였고, 달의 orientation에 대해 서는 J2000.0을 기준으로 하는 달의 칭동 모델을 션택하고 Eckert의 행성섭동효과를 추가 하였다. 각각의 subroutine별로 테스트를 거쳐 이들을 결합하여‘SSEG (Solar System Ephemerides Generator)’ 라는 소프트웨어 package를 개발한 후, CRAY-2S 슈퍼컴퓨터를 사용하여 프로그램을 수행하였다. 기준 시각인 JD2440400.5를 기준으로 하여, 1일 간격으로 40,000일 (약 110년) 동안 각 행성의 위치 (태양중심 황도직교좌표값)를 계산한 후, 이 결과의 정확도를 검증하기 위하여 JPL의 DE200 자료와 우리의 결과를 비교하였다. 이 연구로부터 얻은 결과로서 행성들의 위치 성분에 대한 최대오차가 100년 동안 $\pm2\times10^{-8}AU(약\pm3km)$ 이하로 나타났다