Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2016.33.4.279

Improving the Accuracy of a Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for the Aviation Radiation Dose  

Hwang, Junga (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute)
Yoon, Kyoung-Won (Inspace Co., Ltd.)
Jo, Gyeongbok (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute)
Noh, Sung-Jun (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences / v.33, no.4, 2016 , pp. 279-285 More about this Journal
Abstract
The space radiation dose over air routes including polar routes should be carefully considered, especially when space weather shows sudden disturbances such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and accompanying solar energetic particle events. We recently established a heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model for real-time operation of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs. Specifically, the HCP value is used as a critical input value in the CARI-6/6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose based on the effective dose rate. The CARI-6/6M approach is the most widely used technique, and the programs can be obtained from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). However, HCP values are given at a one month delay on the FAA official webpage, which makes it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this critical limitation regarding the time delay for space weather customers, we developed a HCP prediction model based on sunspot number variations (Hwang et al. 2015). In this paper, we focus on improvements to our HCP prediction model and update it with neutron monitoring data. We found that the most accurate method to derive the HCP value involves (1) real-time daily sunspot assessments, (2) predictions of the daily HCP by our prediction algorithm, and (3) calculations of the resultant daily effective dose rate. Additionally, we also derived the HCP prediction algorithm in this paper by using ground neutron counts. With the compensation stemming from the use of ground neutron count data, the newly developed HCP prediction model was improved.
Keywords
heliocentric potential; CARI-6/6M; aviation radiation;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Copeland K, Recent and planned developments in the CARI Program, Aerospace Medicine Technical Reports, DOT/ FAA/AM-13/6 (2013).
2 Hwang J, Shin DY, Pre-study for polar routes space radiation forecast model development, J. Korea Soc. Space Technol. 8, 23-30 (2013).
3 Hwang J, Lee JJ, Cho KS, Choi HS, Rho SR, et al., Space radiation measurement on the polar route onboard the Korean commercial flights, J. Astron. Space Sci. 27, 43-54 (2010). http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2010.27.1.043   DOI
4 Hwang J, Dokgo K, Choi E, Park JS, Kim KC, et al., Modeling of space radiation exposure estimation program for pilots, crew and passengers on commercial flights, J. Astron. Space Sci. 31, 25-31 (2014). http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2014.31.1.25   DOI
5 Hwang J, Kim KC, Dokgo KH, Choi EJ, Kim HP, Heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model for nowscast of aviation radiation dose, J. Astron. Space Sci. 32, 39-44 (2015). http://dx.doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2015.32.1.39   DOI
6 Tobiska WK, Atwell W, Beck P, Benton E, Copeland K, et al., Advances in atmospheric radiation measurements and modeling needed to improve international air safety, Space Weather 13, 202-210 (2015). http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015SW001169   DOI