• Title/Summary/Keyword: hazard probability

Search Result 285, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

A Study on the Risk of Lightning in Special Structures and its Verification Method (특수 구조물의 낙뢰 위험도와 검증 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Jeong Hyun;Kim, Hei Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.19 no.6
    • /
    • pp.664-668
    • /
    • 2018
  • Free-standing structures that are especially high are more likely to receive brain attacks caused by lightning. Since special structures are generally part of national industrial structures, lightning strikes mostly cause socio-economic damage. Lightning protection facilities are installed to prevent such lightning damage, but in 2015, support cables on West Sea bridges were hit by lightning, causing a lot of economic damage. Accordingly, the design of a lightning protection system shall establish protective measures after analyzing the risk of debris falling onto the structure. In this thesis, lightning strikes are analyzed directly in relation to the modeling system that operates the actual information collection system for lightning strikes, depending on the location of the tall, free-standing structures, and practical lightning hazard information is provided by a meteorological station. In addition, we propose monitoring and applying a probability correction rate to the calculation of the lightning risk based on the number of lightning strikes directly reaching the ground in order to obtain an effective lightning risk assessment.

Monitoring of Cd, Hg, Pb, and As and Risk Assessment for Commercial Medicinal Plants (국내 유통 약용작물 중 카드뮴, 수은, 납, 비소 함량 모니터링 및 위해성 평가)

  • Kim, Hyuck-Soo;Kim, Kwon-Rae;Hong, Chang-Oh;Go, Woo-Ri;Jeong, Seon-Hee;Yoo, Ji-Hyock;Cho, Nam-Jun;Hong, Jin-Hwan;Kim, Won-Il
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
    • /
    • v.34 no.4
    • /
    • pp.282-287
    • /
    • 2015
  • BACKGROUND: The current study was carried out to investigate Cd, Hg, Pb and As contaminations in 222 commercial medicinal plants and to estimate the potential health risk through dietary intake of commercial medicinal plants in Korea.METHODS AND RESULTS: The Cd, Hg, Pb, and As in medicinal plants were analyzed by ICP/MS and mercury analyzer.The potential health risk was estimated using risk assessment tools. Total amount of Cd in medicinal plants with 29% samples exceeded the standard limit legislated in 'Pharmaceutical Affairs Act' while all plant samples were lower than the standard limit value for As, Hg, and Pb. However, when applying the standard limit for root vegetable (fresh weight) in the Food Sanitation Act, four samples exceeded the standard limit of Pb. For health risk assessment, the values of cancer risk probability were 0.3~5.9×10-7which were less than the acceptable cancer risk of 10-6~10-4for regulatory purpose. Also, Hazard quotientvalues were lower than 1.0.CONCLUSION: Therefore, these results demonstrated that human exposure to Cd, Hg, Pb, and As through dietary intake of commercial medicinal plants might notcause adverse health effects although some medicinal plants were higher than the standard limit values for Cd and Pb.

On the Study of Developement for Urban Meteorological Service Technology (도시기상서비스 기술 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Jean;Kim, Chang-Mo;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.149-157
    • /
    • 2011
  • Urbanization of the world's population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more than 308,500,000 people, with 81 percent residing in cities and suburbs as of mid - 2005 (UN, 2008). Urban meteorology is the study of the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the interactions of Earth's atmosphere and the urban built environment, and the provision of meteorological services to the populations and institutions of metropolitan areas. While the details of such services are dependent on the location and the synoptic climatology of each city, there are common themes, such as enhancing quality of life and responding to emergencies. Experience elsewhere (e.g., Shanghai, Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, etc.) shows urban meteorological support is a key part of an integrated or multi-hazard warning system that considers the full range of environmental challenges and provides a unified response from municipal leaders. Urban meteorology has come to require much more than observing and forecasting the weather of our cities and metropolitan areas. Forecast improvement as a function of more and better observations of various kinds and as a function of model resolution, larger ensembles, predicted probability distributions; Responses of emergency managers, government officials, and users to improved and probabilistic forecasts; Benefits of improved forecasts in reduction of loss of life, property damage, and other adverse effects. A national initiative to enhance urban meteorological services is a high-priority need for a wide variety of stakeholders, including the general, commerce and industry, and all levels of government. Some of the activities of such an initiative include: conducting basic research and development; prototyping and other activities to enable very--short and short range predictions; supporting and improving productivity and efficiency in commercial and industrial sectors; and urban planning for long term sustainability. In addition urban test-beds are an effective means for developing, testing, and fostering the necessary basic and applied meteorological and socioeconomic research, and transitioning research findings to operations. An extended, multi-year period of continuous effort, punctuated with intensive observing and forecasting periods, is envisioned.

Optimal Seismic Rehabilitation of Structures Using Probabilistic Seismic Demand Model (확률적 지진요구모델을 이용한 구조물의 최적 내진보강)

  • Park, Joo-Nam;Choi, Eun-Soo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-10
    • /
    • 2008
  • The seismic performance of a structure designed without consideration of seismic loading can be effectively enhanced through seismic rehabilitation. The appropriate level of rehabilitation should be determined based on the decision criteria that minimize the anticipated earthquake-related losses. To estimate the anticipated losses, seismic risk analysis should be performed considering the probabilistic characteristics of the hazard and the structural damage. This study presents the decision procedure in which the probabilistic seismic demand model is utilized for the effective estimation and minimization of the total seismic losses through seismic rehabilitation. The probability density function and the cumulative distribution function of the structural damage for a specified time period are established in a closed form, and are combined with the loss functions to derive the expected seismic loss. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for making decisions on the seismic rehabilitation of structural systems.

Seismic Evaluation of Steel Moment Frame Buildings based on Different Response Modification Factors and Fundamental Periods (반응수정계수와 주기의 영향에 대한 철골모멘트저항골조 건물의 내진성능평가)

  • Shin, Ji-Wook;Lee, Ki-Hak;Lee, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.12 no.5
    • /
    • pp.47-56
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study was performed to evaluate the effect of Response modification factors (R-factor) in 3-, 9- and 20- story steel Moment Resisting Frame (MRF) buildings. Each structure was designed using a R-factor of 8, as tabulated in the 2000 International Building Code provision (IBC 2000) and Korea Building Code (KBC) 2008. In order to evaluate the maximum and minimum performance expected for such structures, an upper bound and lower bound design were adopted for each model. Next, each analytical model was designed using different R-factors (8, 9, 10, 11, 12) and four different structural periods with the original fundamental period. For a detailed case study, a total of 150 analytical models were subjected to 20 ground motions representing a hazard level with a 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. In order to evaluate the performance of the structures, static push-over and non-linear time history analysis (NTHA) were performed, and displacement ductility demand was investigated to consider the ductility capacity of the structures. The results show that the dynamic behaviors for the 3- and 9-story buildings are relatively stable and conservative, while the 20-story buildings show a large displacement ductility demand due to dynamic instability factors. (e.g. P-delta effect and high mode effect)

Landslide Susceptibility Prediction using Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence and Artificial Neural Network Models (Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence 및 Artificial Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 공간 취약성 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Saro;Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.35 no.2
    • /
    • pp.299-316
    • /
    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility in the Pyeongchang area using Weight of Evidence (WOE) and Evidential Belief Function (EBF) as probability models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a machine learning model in a geographic information system (GIS). This study examined the widespread shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006, which caused serious property damage and significant loss of life. For the landslide susceptibility mapping, 3,955 landslide occurrences were detected using aerial photographs, and environmental spatial data such as terrain, geology, soil, forest, and land use were collected and constructed in a spatial database. Seventeen factors that could affect landsliding were extracted from the spatial database. All landslides were randomly separated into two datasets, a training set (50%) and validation set (50%), to establish and validate the EBF, WOE, and ANN models. According to the validation results of the area under the curve (AUC) method, the accuracy was 74.73%, 75.03%, and 70.87% for WOE, EBF, and ANN, respectively. The EBF model had the highest accuracy. However, all models had predictive accuracy exceeding 70%, the level that is effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. These models can be applied to predict landslide susceptibility in an area where landslides have not occurred previously based on the relationships between landslide and environmental factors. This susceptibility map can help reduce landslide risk, provide guidance for policy and land use development, and save time and expense for landslide hazard prevention. In the future, more generalized models should be developed by applying landslide susceptibility mapping in various areas.

Analysis of the crack propagation rules and regional damage characteristics of rock specimens

  • Li, Yangyang;Xu, Yadong;Zhang, Shichuan;Fan, Jing;Du, Guobin;Su, Lu;Fu, Guangsheng
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.24 no.3
    • /
    • pp.215-226
    • /
    • 2021
  • To study the evolution mechanism of cracks in rocks with multiple defects, rock-like samples with multiple defects, such as strip-shaped through-going cracks and cavity groups, are used, and the crack propagation law and changes in AE (acoustic emission) and strain of cavity groups under different inclination angles are studied. According to the test results, an increase in the cavity group inclination angle can facilitate the initial damage degree of the rock and weaken the crack initiation stress; the initial crack initiation direction is approximately 90°, and the extension angle is approximately 75~90° from the strip-shaped through-going cracks; thus, the relationship between crack development and cavity group initiation strengthens. The specific performance is as follows: when the initiation angle is 30°, the cracks between the cavities in the cavity group develop relatively independently along the parallel direction of the external load; when the angle is 75°, the cracks between the cavities in the cavity group can interpenetrate, and slip can occur along the inclination of the cavity group under the action of the shear mechanism rupture. With the increase in the inclination angle of the cavity group, the AE energy fluctuation frequency at the peak stress increases, and the stress drop is obvious. The larger the cavity group inclination angle is, the more obvious the energy accumulation and the more severe the rock damage; when the cavity group angle is 30° or 75°, the peak strain of the local area below the strip-shaped through-going fracture plane is approximately three times that when the cavity group angle is 45° and 60°, indicating that cracks are easily generated in the local area monitored by the strain gauge at this angle, and the further development of the cracks weakens the strength of the rock, thereby increasing the probability of major engineering quality damage. The research results will have important reference value for hazard prevention in underground engineering projects through rock with natural and artificial defects, including tunnels and air-raid shelters.

Analysis of Korean Citizens' Preparedness for Earthquake Hazards (지진 재해에 대한 시민들의 준비도 분석)

  • Lee, Kiyoung;Ha, Minsu;Han, Ju;Lee, Changwook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.43 no.1
    • /
    • pp.199-209
    • /
    • 2022
  • In this study, we analyzed the preparedness of Korean citizens for earthquake hazards. For this purpose, we developed a questionnaire on the preparedness of citizens for earthquake hazards, consisting of three constructs (knowledge, awareness, and management). A total of 1,256 citizen responses were collected through probability proportionate-to-size sampling and then subjected to Rasch analysis, inferential statistical analysis, and cluster analysis. The findings are as follows. First, questionnaire analysis showed that overall, the earthquake preparedness of citizens was 'normal', with a lower management score than knowledge and awareness scores. Second, analysis of variables related to preparedness for earthquake hazards, gender, education level, actual distance, and safety awareness were found to influence preparedness for earthquake hazards. Third, correlation analysis revealed a high correlation between the three constructs of preparedness for earthquake hazards, namely knowledge, awareness, and management, indicating a structurally close relationship with each other. In addition, even if gender and education level differed, these structural correlations were similar. Through cluster analysis, the citizens were further divided into five groups; the group with moderate levels of the three constructs accounted for the majority of citizens. Considering these findings, we propose an educational orientation that fosters the preparedness of citizens for earthquake hazards.

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Tunnel Traffic Safety Information Service Using RADAR Data Based on Surrogate Safety Measures (레이더 검지기 자료를 활용한 SSM 기반 터널 교통안전정보 제공 서비스 효과분석)

  • Yongju Kim;Jaehyeon Lee;Sungyong Chung;Chungwon Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.73-87
    • /
    • 2023
  • Furnishing traffic safety information can contribute to providing hazard warnings to drivers, thereby avoiding crashes. A smart road lighting platform that instantly recognizes road conditions using various sensors and provides appropriate traffic safety information has therefore been developed. This study analyzes the short-term traffic safety improvement effects of the smart road lighting's tunnel traffic safety information service using surrogate safety measures (SSM). Individual driving behavior was investigated by applying the vehicle trajectory data collected with RADAR in the Anin Avalanche 1 and 2 tunnel sections in Gangneung. Comparing accumulated speeding, speed variation, time-to-collision, and deceleration rate to avoid the crash before and after providing traffic safety information, all SSMs showed significant improvement, indicating that the tunnel traffic safety information service is beneficial in improving traffic safety. Analyzing potential crash risk in the subdivided tunnel and access road sections revealed that providing traffic safety information reduced the probability of traffic accidents in most segments. The results of this study will be valuable for analyzing the short-term quantitative effects of traffic safety information services.

Screening Cases of Potential Extreme Natural Hazards Based on External Event Analysis of Operational Nuclear Power Plants (가동 원전의 외부사건 분석에 기반한 잠재적 극한자연재해의 선별)

  • Chung, Gil-Young;Kim, Gi-Bae;Park, Hyun-Sung;Park, Hyung-Kui ;Choun, Young-Sun;Chang, Soo-Hyuk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.43 no.6
    • /
    • pp.699-708
    • /
    • 2023
  • Nuclear power plants (NPPs) consider possible external events, including natural hazards, during the design phase to ensure safe operation. However, in recent years, due to the increasing probability of natural hazards exceeding the design, a careful review of extreme natural hazards and unforeseen external events during the design phase has become necessary. In this study, the objective was to screen potential extreme natural hazards at NPP sites in Korea. Initially, we investigated and analyzed the characteristics of NPP sites and the events caused by external hazards. Furthermore, we analyzed existing literature and research data to establish screening procedures and criteria that suit the actual conditions of domestic NPPs. Based on these criteria and data, we conducted qualitative screening for each NPP site and identified potential extreme natural hazards through quantitative screening and walkdown. As a result of the screening, in addition to internal flooding caused by heavy rain, wind pressure and extreme air pressure caused by extreme winds were screened as potential extreme natural hazards common to all sites. Additionally, at the Kori site, storm surge was selected as the most significant potential extreme natural hazard.